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Top 10 at 10: ‘Name and shame directors’; Ohio sues rating agencies; Funky Gibbons;
November 23rd, 2009Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions and comments below or please email your suggestions for Tuesday’s Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz
1. Name and shame them – A member of NZX’s sub-listing committee, Chris Swasbrook, has called for directors of failed finance companies to be banned from being directors in listed companies, Rob Stock reports in the Sunday Star Times. Fair enough. It’s curious that Greg Muir’s website bio at Pumpkin Patch doesn’t mention his chairmanship of Hanover Finance.
In a letter to investors in his Elevation Capital fund this month, he said: “It is my view and I have conveyed this to the NZX – that any director association with a finance company/fund failure that saw investors suffer permanent capital losses while they were a director of the entity should mean that those directors are not eligible for NZX listed company directorships.”
He also accused some listed company directors of airbrushing their pasts.
“I have been dismayed recently to see that it seems those who have been on the board of finance companies which have seen investors suffer `permanent capital loss’ feel that they can omit such important details from their CV.
“I personally question why a company that was seeking outside investor capital would want a director that had any (present or former) association with finance companies given in a large majority of cases they were nothing more than Ponzi schemes – but I guess it reflects on what one can only describe as a dire lack of talent.”
2. 100%? – Allied Farmers’ CEO (and major shareholder) Rob Alloway reckons Hanover Finance debenture holders might get back their 100% if they accept the debt for equity swap he is offering up, the Sunday Star Times reported. I wonder if that promise/suggestion/hint will remain in the prospectus? And if it isn’t what will the Securities Commission make of such comments.
Rob Alloway, chief executive of Allied Farmers, says the proposed deal for the NZX-listed finance and rural services company to buy the troubled loan book of Hanover offers the only realistic means of Hanover investors getting back 100 cents in the dollar.
The last time Hanover investors were told something similar was when Hanover was trying to get debenture holders to vote for a moratorium in December last year, though last week they were told that 70 cents was the most they could expect after Hanover confessed to writing off $137 million of bad debts.
3. Just wait – Brian Gaynor says in his NZHerald column that Hanover Finance investors should wait for the details of Allied Farmer’s bid. He concludes Mark Hotchin and Hanover are toast.
Hanover Finance investors are in an awkward position because they made the wrong decision last year. At present they are in the hands of Hotchin and Watson, their management team and Hanover’s independent directors. This is not a great place to be and it is likely that the projected moratorium payout of 70 cents will be reduced further.
The question they have to ask is whether Alloway will do a better job in recovering the loans than Hotchin and, if he does, will this be reflected in Allied Farmers’ share price.
Hanover investors should keep an open mind on this issue and wait until the notice of meeting documents are available.
This is not a sweet deal for Hotchin and Watson even though they will avoid the $20 million support guarantee. They will still lose $10 million plus interest, which is held in a solicitor’s trust account and will be paid to Allied Farmers.
They will have to meet all Hanover’s liabilities, including any legal action, although they will receive between $5 million and $10 million from Allied Farmers to meet these. Hotchin and Watson’s business reputations have been severely damaged and Hanover has no future.
4. ‘Prepare for global collapse’ – Ambrose Evans Pritchard at The Daily Telegraph has picked up on a cracking research report from Societe Generale that outlines its worst case scenario for the global economy.
In a report entitled “Worst-case debt scenario”, the bank’s asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems. Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of “deleveraging”, for years.
“As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse,” said the 68-page report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon.
The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. “High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt,” it said.
Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.The bank said the current crisis displays “compelling similarities” with Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this strategy at the same time.
5. Dead Men Walking – Eric Sprott and David Franklin at Sprott Asset Management have written a paper on how Western governments are essentially insolvent a day of reckoning is coming.
As respected market commentator David Rosenberg recently wrote, “the stock market is divorced from economic reality”. It’s time for another surreality check, but this time it isn’t the publicly traded companies that deserve attention, it’s the governments that have saved them. Make no mistake – the dead men are still walking – they’re just a lot bigger now than they were two years ago, and they don’t generate earnings – they print money and tax their citizens.
The United States Government is on a trajectory to default on their obligations. In its current financial condition, it will not be able to fund its forecasted budget deficits and unfunded Social Security and Medicare promises on top of its current debt obligations. This isn’t official yet, and we don’t know when the market will react to it, but there is no longer any doubt about the extent of their trajectory. There simply isn’t enough taxing power, value creation or outside capital willing to support its egregious spending.
Hemingway wrote that a man goes broke “slowly, then all at once”. We believe the same sentiment can be applied to governments. If fiscal abuses continue unabated, confidence eventually erodes until investors just stop lending. It happened famously to Lehman in September 2008, and it is happening now to the US government. The Q2 Flow of Funds Report published by the Federal Reserve revealed that the Federal Reserve purchased as much as half of the newly issued treasuries in the second quarter. This means that the Federal Reserve isn’t merely supporting the market for US treasuries… it is the market for US treasuries. Printing new dollars to support an almost $9 trillion dollar budget deficit that stretches out over the next ten years puts the US on the road to ruin, and the major governments of the world have noticed and are taking action.
We believe the US government’s current trajectory presents one of the greatest macro-economic risks at play today. The Federal Reserve and the US government have assumed the toxic financial trash that brought the banking system to its knees a year ago. By monetizing debt to support their budget deficit and ‘save the system’, both entities have chosen to walk a well worn path traveled by so many governments before them. Like dead men walking, the US government is merely biding its time until the moment of truth. Unlike Fannie Mae, General Motors or Citigroup, however, there is no one left to grant a reprieve.
6. Are Americans revolting? - I’ve been asking for months now when regular Americans will finally revolt against the bailouts of the ‘Too Big To Fail’ banks who are now paying themselves record bonuses made from money printed for them by the US Federal Reserve. ‘George Washington’ at Zerohedge pulls together a bunch of articles showing a revolt starting to pop up in various areas, including a debtors’ revolt, a Congressional revolt and protests directly to banks. HT Gertraud.
7. AAA rated law suit – Now the US state of Ohio is suing Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, the New York Times reported. Our Reserve Bank has given them an official mandate to rate our financial institutions from March next year. Good idea?
Already facing a spate of private lawsuits, the legal troubles of the country’s largest credit rating agencies deepened on Friday when the attorney general of Ohio sued Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, claiming that they had cost state retirement and pension funds some $457 million by approving high-risk Wall Street securities that went bust in the financial collapse.
The case could test whether the agencies’ ratings are constitutionally protected as a form of free speech.
The lawsuit asserts that Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch were in league with the banks and other issuers, helping to create an assortment of exotic financial instruments that led to a disastrous bubble in the housing market.
“We believe that the credit rating agencies, in exchange for fees, departed from their objective, neutral role as arbiters,” the attorney general, Richard Cordray, said at a news conference. “At minimum, they were aiding and abetting misconduct by issuers.”
He accused the companies of selling their integrity to the highest bidder.
8. Dubai turmoil - Dubai’s leading Sheikh has sacked a bunch of the people behind Dubai’s mad property boom that loaded it with US$80 billion of debt, Bloomberg reported. Know of any other problems in Dubai?
Sheikh Mohammed on Nov. 20 sacked the governor of the Dubai International Financial Centre, Omar Bin Sulaiman, who had led efforts to transform Dubai into a Middle East finance hub. A day earlier, he dropped Mohammad al-Gergawi, Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem and Mohammed Ali Alabbar from the board of Dubai’s main holding company, the Investment Corporation of Dubai. The three were at the forefront of a construction drive that began in 2002 and collapsed last year after the global financial turmoil engulfed Dubai.
The moves herald greater consolidation of so-called Dubai Inc., the web of competing, state-owned companies that Sheikh Mohammed used to accelerate diversification of the second- largest member of the United Arab Emirates away from oil. Dubai is struggling under $80 billion of debt amassed in the process.
9. Some people are dumb – Some jokes aren’t stupid enough. A financial writer invented some insanely risky Exchange Traded Funds with ludicrous names and was deluged with people wanting to buy them… John Carney at BusinessInsider has the story. HT Felix Salmon.
Last Friday, he posted a satirical article called First 100x Leveraged ETFs. It made fun of the trend toward higher leverage among ETF products. He used the bogus symbols SOAR and SINK for the two fake ETFs mentioned, the former following the index at 100x and the latter following the inverse of the index at 100x.
Soon after he published the piece he was deluged with emails. Many people got the joke. But a full 65% expressed interest in some form or another in owning SOAR and SINK.
10. Completely irrelevant Video – Goody goody yum yum with the Funky Gibbons. This is for all of you of a certain age who have a soft spot for the Goodies and secretly hanker after a good long sideburn.
You may also like to read:
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November 23rd, 2009 at 10:13 am
Is there access to a site that gives all the directorships etc that any person has had?
It seem that the companies site could have that.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:47 am
@DS:
You can definitely get that from companies.govt.nz – all free to access.
Alan.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:58 am
Are Americans revolting? …. no not all of them, some are actually quite nice.
Sorry, just couldn’t help myself !!
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:14 am
Rural NZ is hurting. The pain in the export sector must work its way through to high unemployment and a contracting tax income for Govt. Houses must get a pummeling as the effects of poor export receipts hit the non productive service sector and Govt
Lamb prices are way back. Fed’s pushed for a $150 lamb, we could easily slide under 1/3rd of that this year. Beef is way back ,for many it will be below what they paid for animals last year. Commodity milk prices are up but we dont know the effects of US$ sloshing around and being speculated with, on Ag prices
There is some good data on this site;
http://www.agprodecon.org/node/36
Dont underestimate the pain being felt in the export sector its very real. Eventually production must collapse. There is now huge interest from NZ farmers in taking their skills offshore. They are turning up in the USA,Chile,Argentina,Brazil(where Fonterra have a large farm),Eastern Europe,France,Australia and Tasmania, where farms have recently failed to sell at Auction at prices a fraction of ours. Farmer wish to sell their NZ holdings and move where prices are realistic and give a real cash return. This must collapse land prices here why should our land be out of step with the rest of the world.
John key may well still have a smile on his face but he best be certain its not out of place in the present export environment.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:43 am
When the MMP referendum comes up, I wonder if there’s any chance of adding on an extra item, lowering the voting age? Shouldn’t the 0-18 year olds get a voice given the increasing tax burden being loaded onto them for their parents’ and grandparents’ health care and retirement?
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:54 am
Good call Hamish.
The Baby Boomers have been proven to be the most selfishly overrated of the current generations, so why not give a voice to those whose world is being shagged by all the incompetent 50 year olds? The kids are going to inherit a world that has been economically and ecologically devastated by the ‘Boomers so let them speak.
That said, I bet they’ll be easily bribed….vote for me and I’ll make texting free?
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:57 am
@4: “Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the Atlantic. “Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of hedge funds and bankers are worried,” he said. ”
Oh good (sort of) so it just isn’t me….
Ambrose has another piece…on Greece this time,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6630117/Greece-tests-the-limit-of-sovereign-debt-as-it-grinds-towards-slump.html
“As far as the bond vigilantes are concerned, the Bat-Signal is up for Greece,” said Francesco Garzarelli in a Goldman Sachs client note”
A sea of debt….but not a drop to drink…
regards
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:00 pm
If you are young enough at 16 to have sex, get pregnant and hence screw up your life for the next 20 odd years, I dont see why you cant vote at 16 myself.
regards
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:05 pm
So we have Japan looking hairy…..Greece and most of Eastern Europe…are there any rays of sunshine apart from OZ?
Maybe we should take side bets on which country defaults first.
regards
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:09 pm
ON NUMBER #4:
Whew! Check the gold price opening now. Bet all the people that though $1000 US bucks an ounce for gold was an overpriced ceiling limit are kicking themselves now…
I found a great little FICTIONAL scenario about how a possible US dollar collapse would happen. Makes a great bit of reading, and illustrates well just how quickly it could all happen. Mind you, a small bit in metals as an insurance policy makes ya sleep a bit easier. When you see it put into real life rather than an economic outlook, kinda hits home the seriousness of loss of faith in a currency.
http://johngaltfla.com/blog3/2009/11/18/the-day-the-dollar-died/
No. I am not trying to gloom and doom and fearmonger. Just pointing out the fundamentals of printing money ad infinitum.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:22 pm
I can’t believe it. I thought #1 would have been on CLIMATEGATE !!!!!
CLIMATEGATE: East Anglia Climate Research Unit (CRU) – Hacked, Emails & Files Released – HUGE scandal 19th Nov 2009 !!!!!!!
http://www.neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2420
CLIMATEGATE: My analysis of the CRU files, starting with “documents/HARRY_READ_ME.txt”
http://www.neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2421
I’d have thought the recent revelations and how they should affect NZ climate policy would have been huge news.
How are our politicians going to react to this?
And the lack of coverage in the mainstream media (along with the revelations about how media reporting is ‘influenced’), would also raise a few eyebrows.
The blogosphere is alive with this news (at least they are not influenced).
Steve
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:22 pm
The real crisis all you metal bugs, could be caused by excess leverage, in which case it may pay to take a profit while there is still one to be had.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:23 pm
@Hamish
0-18 yos will just follow the time honoured Kiwi tradition when the dice are loaded against you.
Leave.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:29 pm
“The Baby Boomers have been proven to be the most selfishly overrated of the current generations, so why not give a voice to those whose world is being shagged by all the incompetent 50 year olds? The kids are going to inherit a world that has been economically and ecologically devastated by the ‘Boomers so let them speak. ”
I wish you would convince my children of that…..Got another birthday coming up, lost count which one…So its ” hey day, another year closer to your use by date…see the cars (classic collector cars) you are keeping in good knick for us….house and gardens are looking good…”
Thing thing is they have credit card maxed and we dont have any significant debit…less than 1 yrs nett income.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Well if Greece have this problem
Perhaps we could be the first in the pacific?
My daughter is p*ssed because she needs some dental work and is working a few extra hours to pay for it. A friend just on the dole is ecstatic because she is is now eligible for state funded dental care in her 40’s.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:40 pm
@steven
I like this from Ambroses article.
“Like Labour under Brown, idiot leaders mistook a bubble for their own skill”
Replace Brown with Clarke/Cullen and the picture looks depressingly familar.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:54 pm
AndrewJ Says:
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:22 pm
The real crisis all you metal bugs, could be caused by excess leverage, in which case it may pay to take a profit while there is still one to be had.
Andrew, the problem IS excess leverage and ‘Mr Market’ would like to liquidate same. In such circumstances we might expect precious metals ‘prices’ to fall. However, the political reaction to the excess leverage is stimulus upon stimulus with – presumably – the ultimate option being mass printing of banknotes. This would explode metals prices to the stratosphere. I guess the question is whether the natural implosion of leverage can be offset by ever more reckless stimulus? As always, time will tell.
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Who keeps listing to the Ratings agencies anymore? The only thing keeping them in business is the outstanding mature bond paper. They just need to amend the contacts so that the ratings are not included, no more mandatory AAA rated secures, etc.
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:07 pm
A principal aspect of investments is the return . The dividend , or rental . The % gain of income from the asset . What it produces . Gold doesn’t have this . So how do we price gold ? By panic buying in the market ? It is in the level of fear in the market-place . Yet intrinsically , the pretty stuff has few functional uses . It costs to store . And sits there , going ………… Well nothing really , alike the weather girls on TV1 & 3 , it looks lovelly , but doesn’t achieve much . I know a share dividend , or the rental on a house , or on a bond . I can weigh them up , compare one to another , and make an informed decision , on which currently is good value , and which is not . But gold ? Have a guess , it is nothing more than a gamble on the world’s financial fear index .
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:17 pm
@AndyM unless its changed I think dental work is limited to $300 a year….
regards
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:24 pm
@Andy M: No, unfair, on HC and Cullen, they ran surpluses….tried to kick off the Cullen fund to look at mitigating our medium terms problems….far from perfect, yes…but JK looks to be as much if not more in Brown’s mold than anything else…
Brown, his Govn had many years of oil income but wasted it. He had a 1st Class Degree in economics (I think?) shows how little good it did the UK.
@Troy: Too many….I’m glad they are being sued though….free speech should be free and not paid for, ie for professional gain. Once money changes hands, that’s professional work to my mind and that’s a contract IMHO…so they should be held liable.
regards
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:25 pm
Roger – gold is not an investment, it is money – albeit money in exile. Its rising price merely reflects the fact that confidence is being lost in fiat money due to chronic ‘over-issuance’ (largely via instruments of credit).
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Steve Netwriter — have a listen to this. In my view it seems abit far fetched but the fact that the paper exists is enough to make you lose abit of sleep. But I do remember a speech by the head of the UN last year alluding to something like this.
http://2gb.com.au/index2.php?option=com_newsmanager&task=view&id=4998
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:30 pm
For Rodger:
Gold is money. It does not need to provide a dividend or return. $270 US a few years back to $1160 US is a pretty good return on your money. But gold is not really about the return on your money. Gold is about the return OF your money. It is for wealth preservation, and not a get rich quick scheme. It is always an insurance policy against government spending, bank money creation and geopolitical tension. It does not corrode, it is liquid, tangible and has intrinsic value. Stick a sovereign under a floorboard and find in in ten years, it is still worth its weight in gold. Try that with a $10 note, and you will be sorely dissapointed with the buying power a $10 note has 10 years from now.
But don’t forget silver. Silver is money to, but is also consumed in industry – which makes it an even better long term hedge, but never a short term gamble.
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Thanks Ross
Excellent.
I’ve posted a wonderful speech by Lord Monckton.
If you’ve not seen it:
http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2354
I’ll add your link to that thread
I have been trying to work out why we have climate alarmism when I believe peak oil is the real issue.
Maybe this explains it. It’s got to be something like that.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:01 pm
@Steve netwriter.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/
So, context….one researcher having Fortran issues isn’t a smoking gun….
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:08 pm
AGW and peak oil are both real issues….but peak oil is sure going to be here first.
regards
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm
I would rather have the shares in the copper/gold company than money in US iou paper promises. The USA is broke. Noddyland is a housing bubble waiting for a needle. Asia and China are taking advantage of the situation and making hay while the west gets to deal with decades of stupid govt and greed.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:52 pm
@steve
“No, unfair, on HC and Cullen, they ran surpluses….tried to kick off the Cullen fund to look at mitigating our medium terms problems….far from perfect, yes…but JK looks to be as much if not more in Brown’s mold than anything else…”
They ran surpluses initially, like Gordon they were fiscally prudent, but they soon came to regard them as structural and to be spent. Hence, now that they are gone, we can’t afford the Cullen fund, the middle class welfare, nor half the bureaucrats they hired using these boom surpluses. They would have been much better looking at the tax receipts over the economic cycle, as Brown professed to, but never did. in reality we don’t earn enough as a country to afford anything like the welfare policies that we have.
JK is much more like Blair or Cameron than Broon. Brown is a pure socialist through and through. You’ll never find one of them working as a bankster, they’re much more at home spending other peoples money.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:45 pm
The comment section of this blog is suffering from Peak Saturation Fatigue (PSF)!
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:05 pm
@Steven,
Yes I’ve read that, what now seems like days ago. It’s been a long and busy weekend.
And you’ll see I quoted it and linked to it. For context
Maybe you haven’t read all that I’ve posted
If you had, you’d see that far from Harry “having some Fortran problems” that file shows far far more than that.
It illuminates the quality of the data we are supposed to believe, and how it is used.
It may in the end, after careful analysis, lead to the best conclusions.
The many emails illuminate much about the “alarmist” camp. The stable climate deniers
The MainStream Media (MSM) is still amazingly quiet on this.
Odd that
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Maybe odd, might not….there isnt really anything there…no bloody hands and finger prints…”oh yes pay me $10k and I’ll say its real” sort of thing….so hardly surprising the MSM isnt interested there are no bodies.
Yes the data set is not good, and here they are trying to make meaning of it…in a frank manner….Some of my work can look like this until I understand what’s going on.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:52 pm
@Andy H: “Hence, now that they are gone, we can’t afford the Cullen fund, the middle class welfare, nor half the bureaucrats they hired using these boom surpluses.”
To be fair we just had the biggest meltdown in 80 years, that has changed a lot of things. BUT it is a Govn’s job to look for and mitigate these things, clearly they did not, but National were no better….one huge give away party from both camps. I do think near the end that Labour did what they did on purpose, clearly they wanted the social engineering legacy to outlast them and WFF alone is one huge disaster waiting to happen, ie a mentality sinks in, it then takes decades or huge shocks to get it out. I suppose on a brighter note that shock is just around the corner.
I dont agree on Brown, socialist, no, not bad like that. I grew up in Britain I remember Micheal “moron” Foot and the rest, now those were hard core socialists, or maybe Trotskyists, Brown is arguably in-competent and should have done his job properly…but lets face it he’s in good company around the world.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Come on Steven you cannot just dismiss these comments like they are trying to on Realclimate. These are the same guys who who told us that the science is settled and all the scientific community agrees with it. There is no longer any debate etc etc etc
But in these emails we have one of the head guys saying ” The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and its a travesty that we can’t”
The big guru Gore has come out recently saying CO2 does not contribute as much AGW as he once thought but we are still going ahead with massive new tax schemes.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:19 pm
The AGW fraud has been exposed. The CRU emails show just how corrupt the warmists are. At least New Zealand gave Helen Clark the boot last year. John Key needs to scrap the ETS. At least he isn’t heading to Copenhagen.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:34 pm
I’ve listed a number of download sites for the files.
I strongly suggest each person download it and make up their own mind by looking at the actual files.
The MSM appears to be mainly trying to present this as “some hackers interfering with some good scientists”.
I suggest that is far from reality.
I support good science. I support good scientific method. I support openness, and checking.
I disapprove of what I see.
I am now going to try and find some of the documents I’ve downloaded online so I can post links to them as well. The DEFRA pdf file is stomach churning, and I think everyone should read it.
I will do my best to cover as much of this as I can.
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:32 pm
Sorry, nobody said ‘the science is settled’. No scientist says that – only folk who have to keep it simple and think in black or white.
The science is, however, overwhelmingly compelling. As I’ve stated, it’s not linear warming you will see, or were ever going to see. It’s a distancing of the desert bands, and an increase in extreme weather factors. Until the deep ocean has stopped being a capacitor, you may not see things like sea-level-rise – but you will, you will.
That we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment, dessn’t disprove the forcing – it just says we aren’t researching where it’s going. And Gore’s comment is true – it is now understood that methane etc are more potent than CO2. Clutching at straws, Ross.
What nobody above has seen fit to question, is that we have just seen a 1-in-1000 year flood in the UK (and I’ll put money on us seeing another withing a decade!) at the same time as record November temperatures in Aussie. Record since tha last record which was when?
Some people seem to blot out what they don’t want to hear – but some purported hacking of some purported something that – if proved – would justify your continuance of a way of life – — well, that just HAS to be fact. Goes without saying……
People like that ran the Inquisition, still refute Darwin, and probably think the world is flat.
Probably think exponential economic growth’s a goer, too.
Lets look at it with some intelligence:
There is a real chance of us visiting our children with a major piece of crap, even if we aren’t sure. There is no Plan B, and by the time we convinced the deniers, we’d have no lead-time left.
The only resopnsible, the only mature, the only valid inter-generational way to address that, is to err on the side of caution, and to adopt a clear principle without which or species is stuffed anyway;
It is this:
We have to leave the place as we found it, chemically and physically. If we don’t, we crash as a species, and do so within one generation. Our release of stored carbon is just one of many ways we fall well short of that prerequisite.
The math ain’t hard – it’s not rocket science.
What we seem to be lacking is responsible social maturity.
Spleen-vent ends
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:44 pm
@Ross: Yes I can, in terms of my vote, I am satisfied that the science is good enough to act on and expect the Govn to do so…it does not have to be perfect / 100%, just beyond reasonable doubt with a big enough risk and impact to consider mitigation.
Further, context. Lets see, emails dating back up to 5~10 years….1999, 2003 and 2004.
I suspect you are now also putting words in their mouths….ie “all the scientific community agrees with it” To start with “the scientific community” is a broad term…
“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and its a travesty that we can’t”, which email? what year? what is he taling about? ie context.
Modeling is advancing by leaps and bounds…even 5 years ago the models were not refined enough, and they are still being improved. What the models are clearly showing is, there is warming, there is change and their accuracy is acceptable for a risk process to go ahead.
regards
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:48 pm
“I suggest that is far from reality. ” Only in your reality, in the real world this is a non-event…if this is the best deniers can do, ie hacking into sites in order to try and get “damning” evidence but only get this…..LOL….Considering the amount of information to sift through and these emails are it….oh big deal.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:00 pm
Steven – 50% of americans think the world was created by a deity 5 (or is that 10) thousand years ago.
How they see the fossilisation of coal via peat and lignite, to what you see at Curio Bay, beats me. And where does tyrannosaurus rex fit in – just before John the Baptist, perchance?
These are the folk at the other end of the bell-curve ……..as my old Dad used to say; “half the people he knows are below average”.
It may be – and it is being seriously discussed in the philosophical, historical, and theological disciplines – that we are not genetically wired to accept recession, and that there isn’t time for the species to breed an appropriate cranial adjustment.
Don’t be too hard on the deniers…
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:01 pm
1. The Goodies was one show that never got enough re-runs.
2. Human-induced Climate Change is real.
3. The problem of China still holding several trillion dollars of US debt is a sub-plot thorn in the side of “The Day the Dollar Died” writers.
4. Is it possible that Hanover investors are dumber than we think and will vote for the AF buy-out?
5. At what price does Gold have to get to for you to give up your job and go panning in Otago?
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:13 pm
Dang, knew I got something wrong – I’ve been punning in Otago for years.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:33 pm
You’ve gotta love these Stable Climate Deniers (SCD)
I am interested. Of you SCDs, who believes in peak oil?
And have you examined the solutions to both possible problems?
Have you noticed how similar the issues are, but that there are important differences?
What I find interesting is that I suspect those of you who would call me a denier (and of that you should be thoroughly ashamed of yourselves…especially if you claim to be scientists, which you are definitely not if you use that word) – have very similar views to those I hold.
But you’re too blinded by the SCD hype to see it.
Which is a shame.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:38 pm
In regard to Directors having to divulge their past activities to future investors, have a listen the the ex(or is she?) London banker, Nicki Crauford, who is now head of the NZ Directors institute, as she defends the directors of failed finance companies from having to declare their “mistakes” Interveiw starts at 13min 11 sec of this podcast from 12.00 noon Mon 23 Nov, then advance to next 1/4 hour section:
http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Audio/tabid/109/Default.aspx
Then for a run down on the pedigree of Nicki Crauford:
http://publiccreditorbust.blog.com/2009/04/03/nz-securities-commission-directors-institute-just-whos-interests-are-they-looking-after/
To the metal buffs, have a read of the article below reporting on Morgan Stanleys 2007 conviction for the well repeated scam of selling more claims on metals than they actually have. I suggest anyone buying gold should take physical delivery of it. I would love to see what would happen if everyone in the world holding a claim on gold tried to convert it to gold, I suspect it would look like a game of musical chairs when the music stops:
“On September 24, a Federal Judge in New York heard final oral arguments in the class-action settlement between Morgan Stanley and 22,000 of their clients involving costs associated with the storage of precious metals. The parties have agreed to settlement terms. Morgan Stanley will pay several million dollars and promises to revise their precious metals storage processes. However, there is no admission of any wrongdoing. Unfortunately, the class-action participants will receive very little and it will be, basically, business as usual as far as Morgan Stanley’s precious metals storage practices are concerned. All that’s left is for a final approval by the judge.
The issue specifically concerns whether Morgan Stanley and many other large financial organizations who claim to hold and store silver for their customers, actually possess the silver. This case came into existence as a direct result of a number of articles I wrote several years ago. I admit to a high level of satisfaction that the case confirmed a major contention of mine, in spite of doubts by many when I first wrote about it. (When I wrote the original articles, I did not use the name Morgan Stanley, and had no idea a legal case would be brought that involved them)…………….Safe storage is more of an issue unique to silver than any other precious metal. While Morgan Stanley
issued statements that it was storing all types of precious metals, the largest single amount was silver. It was a client’s inquiry about his 1000 oz bars that precipitated the class-action suit. Logic would dictate that this is also the case with hundreds of other worldwide financial institutions that claim to store precious metals for their clients.”
http://investorprotectioncoalition.org/files/Silver_Fraud.pdf
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:02 pm
Steve Netwriter – right from the start, you met your mixaphors.
It’s not a case of ‘believing’ in peak oil, or indeed in peak anything. All ground-sourced materials are finite. Indisputable fact. It just deduces from there. You chew into a finite resource at an increasing rate – and you get some form of the Hubbert model.
Belief that that isn’t so, requires (within a very few doublings) an infinite planet, and the only geometric form which fits that requirement is a flat plane of infinite dimensions.
That’s not what the photo’s from the Apollo Hasselblads suggest.
But you’re right – the spherical planet is only a theory – throw enough money at it and you could no doubt convince a majority that it hasn’t been proven…… especially if their way of life was threatened by the reality.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:17 pm
Global warming is a fraud……….What do’ya think the Goodies have been up to , since 1982 ! Planning revenge for the axing of their show . ” Vengeance is mine ” chortles Graeme Garden , the oddy of the group , ” All mine .Ya-ha ha ha ha ha ! “
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:27 pm
The Emissions Trading Scheme is corrupt . A policy that favours one party , that buys their vote , based on racial terms is repugnant in our society . A plague upon you Nick Smith . You are so far out of your depth . You have sold your soul for political expediency . This deal is a crock , a sham , a bloody disgrace . You Nats. wanna be one term wonders ? Keep on this tack !
November 24th, 2009 at 5:33 am
Can I just state that Human-induced Climate Change is NOT real.
November 24th, 2009 at 6:05 am
At what point do we get to , before we stick our middle digit up to the U.N. , to Al Gore / Michael Moore , Socialism Worldwide Inc, Helen Clark ( her ETS is policy , it will happen if not altered ) , …….And say piss off . We are not going to decimate our economy , for your bogus tissue of lies . We are not going to ham-string ourselves with $ 100 billion of debt , to salve your silly conscience . Your foolishness is not our problem . But your attempt to wrest further control over us , by picking our pockets for ” such a worthy cause ” , is a continuation of two decades of creeping back , by your desire to utterly control and manipulate our lives . George Orwell had you spotted , 50 years too soon . Go away you utterly stupid , repugnant fools . There is no man-made global warming . But there is a warming of government treasuries and smart-arse wide-boys the world over , contemplating the enormous riches about to flow into their cffers ……..From where . you and me , brother , sister , struggle street battler . This is war . The thieves and barbarians are at the gates . Time to gather up arms and repel them .
November 24th, 2009 at 6:18 am
” their Coffers ” , that should read . Cougher up yer dough , forget the environment , this has nuttin to do with that . These bozos want power . No genuine ” greens ” need be involved . The Guinness Book of World Records attempt at theft is about to happen . And that prize prat John Key is going with the flow . Pita Sharples has the Cheshire cat grin . Certain iwi will enrich themselves at our expense . 99.9 % of Kiwis : Pakeha , Maori , and all others , will pay , and pay , indefintely .
November 24th, 2009 at 6:20 am
@Powerdown: I thought it was 60%+? for the fanatics…
regards
November 24th, 2009 at 6:22 am
“How they see the fossilisation of coal via peat and lignite, to what you see at Curio Bay, beats me. And where does tyrannosaurus rex fit in – just before John the Baptist, perchance?”
My inlaws are fanatics, they think Fossils are God’s gift for us to look at and admire. You cant argue with fruity loops and fanatics…
regards
November 24th, 2009 at 6:35 am
@RT; If of course AGW is proven by it happening by then its too late, those who survive will be back in the stone age, else beating steel knives out of the junk cars left littered about.
What you are saying is I dont care what I do to future generations…and the economy and “life style” they have left can be toast, not my problem….ie Peak oil and after it, AGW will more than decimate the economy. Let alone the massive debt this generation has run up for worthless items (surburbia, SUVs etc)….or the fact that this same generation will expect to be kept in their old age by others….
November 24th, 2009 at 7:03 am
Hey Ray…forget panning in Otago…in fact forget searching for gold anywhere in Noddyland..unless you want to do it illegally!. The idiot beaurocrats allowed companies to lock up the prospecting rights over 99.99999% of the country long ago. All that’s left are a few patches of once gold bearing area for the public to scratch in. An example would be the entire Richmond range in the Marlborough region…rights held by Shell oil if I remember correctly. Chech it out. If you want to search for nuggets…cross the ditch..over here it’s a real bitch.
November 24th, 2009 at 7:34 am
Roger – you sort of get it, but not the climate bit.
The rort is indeed wealth going upward, as it naturally does. The only way to stop that under BAU is to legislate (things like differential tax rates). Otherwise the trend is to lesser and lesser, bigger and bigger corporates, thence monopolies and price-fixing collusion.
It ain’t socialist govt’s doing it though. It’s Business roundtable types – and folk like Kerr are consistent climate (or any threat) deniers. They need to think it will all get bigger and better, indefinitely.
The reasons are obvious. They see themselves as ‘winners’ in the current scheme of things, and therefore want to keep the status (pun intended) quo.
That – in my opinion – attitude, almost always accompanies an underlying (pun intended) inferiority complex, commonly associated with expressions of arrogance.
Prick the bubble (it doesn’t take much) and those folk are fun to watch.
The carbon trading idea is indeed flawed – fatally flawed.
Not because the threat is not real – it is.
But because there isn’t the carbon sink on the planet, to sink our output. Period. If we extract and burn the lot (and we are on an exponential track to do so) we re-create the Carboniferous period, and there is no argument: we don’t survive that as a species.
The ETS won’t stop that process. It’s just ‘the market’s’ attempt to keep going, by commercialising the uncommercialisable.
It’s a snake trying to swallow an elephant.
It won’t work, will be too late, and the ’sinks’ will all turn out to be scams.
Note: Existing forest contains carbon, but is a zero-sum game, you just can’t release it.
: New forest is a one-off gain.
: Sequestration is a non-starter. The volumes available and the ERoEI of doing it, make it not a goer.
And if you get some Nigerian to plant his vege plot in trees so you can drive but he can’t eat, he’s going to get grumpy, shortly before he gets dead.
Time we all took it on the chin, I reckon. Shit happens, we caused the shit, we must deal with it. End of story.
Denial and duck-shoving and blame-shifting are immature traits – and I note with interest (pun intended) the strutting folk who are suddenly running for cover…..
November 24th, 2009 at 7:34 am
I wasn’t aware of that Wally.
So if you did find a few flakes, you’re saying the Buyer has to verify that the metal was obtained legally?
November 24th, 2009 at 8:18 am
Unless you have written ok from the bugger with the prospecting rights…whatever you find is theirs!!! Great country isn’t it…see what the brainless meatheads in wgtn have done to your so called bloody rights as a Kiwi. If you contact the mines etc office in wgtn they can tell you which international company owns the rights in any given area. There are I think three pissy little patches of land set up as public areas. The best option is know where these are and whatever you find, no matter where, you found it in one of these areas. Better still..say nothing!
November 24th, 2009 at 9:08 am
Here’s a good link!
http://www.paydirt.co.nz/public-gold-fossicking-areas-map.aspx
November 24th, 2009 at 10:24 am
steven : Don’t put words into my mouth , some of the gummy bears might pop out . I am not saying anything to / about future generations . They are not here yet . But as the planet is cooling again , they may laud me for burning fossil fuels and wood 24 / 7 in order to keep CO2 levels up . where they belong . An excess of oxygen is toxic to plant life . ( powerdown : the ” smart-arse wide boys ” I rant about includes the Business Round-table and their ilk . Plus a new generation of greedy little oinks , looking for any opportunity to profit handsomely from the populance’s ill-fortune )