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17 Responses to “RBNZ’s Bollard talks at MPS press conference about the rates outlook, house prices, mortgage rates and Christmas”

1. neil c Says:
   December 11th, 2009 at 6:27 pm

   In response to a question on the Labour party’s move away from consensus on monetary policy framework:

   “…we are confident that inflation targeting monetary policy as we are carrying out, with some changes we are putting in place since the crisis, CAN work…”

   Even the governor’s not convinced monetary policy is working.

2. Les Rudd Says:
   December 12th, 2009 at 8:00 am

   Bernard – good question in part 2 about through 1.30 to 2mins, about non-tradeables inflation. Their response illuminates the weakness in the orthodoxy we mistakenly base NZ’s monetary policy upon. Ground-hog day with non-tradeables doing the crime and tradeables taking the punishment – here we come.

   Neil C – following on, yep, agreed, having listened to AB’s related answer about 7.30 in part 2, and listening to the TINA tones in the related Select Committee report, here on Int.co. Shame it’s guys like them that have so much sway over the system design and operation, when they are unelected officials. Hopefully more of the FEC will start getting onto it.

   Roger – I don’t care what Bernard wears, who he is, why he is, what I’m interested in is what people say and I’m pleased what he said in asking these questions. Good stuff.

3. Gibber Says:
   December 12th, 2009 at 9:05 am

   video 2. About 5:27

   Bollard responding to question about prediction about house prices increasing 12% by March Quarter 2010. And why RBNZ thinks that won’t flow through to more debt fuelled consumption and spending

   We think its different for a number of reasons.

   One is that we think New Zealanders have taken some lessons out of the Global Financial Crisis and what they saw as some vulnerability in house prices.
   Secondly, from that they have also taken a view that they were getting themselves quite indebted, and in many cases we’re seeing an attempt to rebalance household portfolios with less debt
   And thirdly, if we just look at the credit numbers, very,very restrained at the moment.

   What a load of bollocks.

   Lessons I have learned

   a) Governments and Reserve banks will do everything they can to prop up house prices
   b) Lack of regulation and enforcement of regulation in New Zealand means large chunks of population do not trust other forms of investment. The share market is regarded as a casino where people can be legally dudded.
   c) Government and RBNZ committed to inflation. And, at least in my perception, committed to keeping asset price growth in housing out of any measure of CPI
   d) Cash in bank is losing value due to poor interest rates offered and tax on the interest earned.
   e) Government committed to keeping upward pressure on house prices by way of keeping demand high by way of immigration.

   No Minsky Moment for New Zealand for the GFC.

   I suspect that the belief that many have in New Zealand that property is the best investment since sliced bread has been re-inforced.

   If the herd has come to many of the same conclusions I have, then the property surge I am seeing will continue to accelerate and Property is going to go gangbusters in the first half of 2010.

   With respect to Bollard’s contention that we just look at the credit numbers, very,very restrained at the moment.

   So where is the dosh for the house price growth coming from?

   At least some of it is coming from debt

   http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/monfin/C6/data.html

   Where is the rest coming from to fuel the house price growth?

   Wealthy immigrants?
   Cashed up Sold to Renters re-entering market?

   Where is Steve Netwriter and his graphs of housing market activity?

4. Wally Says:
   December 12th, 2009 at 9:21 am

   Gibber..no arguments..except I do not see housing across Noddyland doing a charge…maybe some idiot buying in Auckland dressed up by B&T to paint a nationwide glowing story of health….the rural areas are in decline…rates will begin to bite deeply.
   But you are right with the grade F for the fools in the Beehive.

5. observer Says:
   December 12th, 2009 at 3:45 pm

   Really interesting things happening in Tauranga. I’m not sure what is driving the panic- but there is huge amounts of housing stock coming on the market and no-one much buying. Every third advertisement in the property press seems to be reading “MUST sell” and people are dropping their prices. The flurry of activity we had here over winter looks like a dead cat bounce now.

   I’d love to know why these vendors are suddenly desperate to sell. Are they speculators trying to exit the market before the tax changes/interest rate increases or are they people selling up to leave the area/NZ? And will this market crash (which is what I think might be going to happen here) start to spread to other parts of NZ?

6. Trudy Says:
   December 12th, 2009 at 5:17 pm

   observer,
   Maybe, the market is reacting to possible tax changes. Perhaps, this market can be very sensitive to news and reports. If more and more of housing stocks coming on the market and less buying activities, then, good news might re-surface and turn the game around again… ie. net migration, more people need to buy, low interest rates, right time to enter, prices surpassing the last peak, multiple biddings in auction, demand is so high and no sign of cooling, forecast that house price to increase etc …. are possible news that could help the market turn around again. So, what’s happening to this economy? sounds like a housing economy?

7. Iain Parker Says:
   December 13th, 2009 at 11:18 am

   I have only just watched this because after the poor sound quality of the first vid in above thread I assumed this would be the same, thankfully it wasn’t, because this contains some jems.

   Firstly the non-tradable sector as opposed to the tradable sector can be simply explained as the sector where money is made of the transactions of money alone, and the tradable sector is the “realsector” where money is used as a means of exchange to allow the trade of tangible goods and services. As described by perhapd NZs greatest Muppet, Roger Douglas from page 140 of his book – Toward Prosperity – ” The financial sector is distinct from the real sector of the economy. The former handles the buying and selling of financial assets, the real sector produces, uses, buys and sells tangible items or services.”
   Enlightening excerpts from the entire book here:
   http://publiccreditorbust.blog.com/2009/05/30/how-the-bankers-conquered-new-zealand-and-roger-douglas-sold-us-out-and-in-nine-years-helen-clark-achieved-nothing-to-stop-the-onslaught/

   So the RBNZ are quite clearly forecasting the “bullshit” or “virtual” to continue to monster the “realsector”. Interestingly under current “worldwide best practice” the cost of housing is not included in the Consumer Price Index(CPI), this even came as a “surprise” to the current head of the Bank of England:
   “The Governor of the Bank of England has admitted he is ’surprised’ that rising house prices are not included in the official inflation figures, according the BBC.”
   http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=422580&in_page_id=2

   At the very end of the press conference, this happened:

   From RBNZ Press Conference Dec 10 2009 re Dec quarter monetary policy statement;

   Question from Barry?
   “are we to expect a properous and happy new year”?

   Answer from Allan Bollard
   “Thank you Barry for that point, finally on a more personal note, since this is the last press conference of the year, I would like to thank you very much for your help and co-operation through the year, it has been one amazing year as you all know, at the beginning of this year we were seriously worried about the financial system and the state of the economy, both in New Zealand and internationally, its with some releive that we see much more secure conditions as we go into christmas time. I am aware that, um, at the beginning of the year when New Zealand was in such a vulnerable state, actually it would only have taken a, ah, one of the major media people looking for a fast headline, acting on rumour or passing on something irresponsibly to have sparked off some real problems in our system, that, we were concerned about that, that didn’t happen. You all, I felt, acted very responsibly through that and for that we would like to thank you. Finally its not a forecast but a wish, have a merry christmas, Barry and evryone else, thank you very much.”
   ———————
   I am afraid that, that statement is just to similar to this issued by one of the Muppet masters himself:
   ““We are grateful to The Washington Post, The New York Times, Tie Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subject to bright lights and publicity during those years. But the work is now much more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto determination practiced in past centuries.” David Rockefeller (Trilateral Commission Founder) 1991″
   http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2007/1207b.html

   With the above in mind and this indepth report on just how the IMF is run, and by whom:
   http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPRS1/Resources/PRSP-Review/WDMPRSPsdoc.pdf

   Have a closer look at the credentials of these RBNZ fellows who stand before us like the preists who used to defend the commercial pyramid scam that the Holy Roman Empire had been over a 1000 years unto the 1500s:
   http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/about/whoweare/0094672.html

8. Iain Parker Says:
   December 13th, 2009 at 11:30 am

   As for the other two branches involved as official advisors or brokers for the government, Treasury and NZ Debt Management, is it just me or is it very hard these days to find on their websites direct links to conprehensive Bio’s or CV’s
   http://www.treasury.govt.nz/abouttreasury/structure

   http://www.nzdmo.govt.nz/aboutnzdmo/orgstructure (toggle down past the bizar disclaimer to read info below)

9. Iain Parker Says:
   December 13th, 2009 at 11:40 am

   Do not be surprised to find upon indepth research that those that advise our government, supposedly in our best interests, have been heavily involved in the money merry go rounds exposed in todays Sunday Star Times:
   “As ANZ National Bank fights IRD claims it used complex cross-border “structured finance” transactions to avoid tax, analysis by the Sunday Star-Times reveals it is still involved in similar deals helping foreign banks.”
   http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3155167/ANZ-in-intricate-deal-on-eve-of-court-battle

   Such as one John Mc Dermott (the man on the right in above vid)
   “Dr McDermott will commence at the Bank on 11 June 2007. He is currently Associate Professor at Victoria University’s School of Economics and Finance. Dr McDermott has held positions at the ANZ National Bank of New Zealand and the International Monetary Fund. He has also previously worked at the Reserve Bank in various roles.”
   http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2007/2939117.html

   Wakey, wakey Sheoples

10. Iain Parker Says:
    December 13th, 2009 at 2:08 pm

    If you wish to know step by step, in plain language, where a continuation of the above leads, again, for NZ and how Auckland Super City plan is of the same template by the same people, and how with the locally recruited co-operatives the predatory lending scam can be played on the largest of nations, read these to links below:

    Mark Hubbard, I believe this might interest you?

    “In these circumstances the Russian authorities opted for a speedy, give-away mass privatization programme which was carried out during 1992-1994. However, this resulted in most cases in the concentration of effective property rights in the hands of insiders (company managers) who had neither the incentives nor the capital to perform the necessary deep restructuring of the enterprises. The newly emerging system of private ownership was not conducive to effective corporate governance and was in fact another obstacle to the process of enterprise restructuring. Moreover, the loopholes in regulation and perverse incentives seem to have incited a continued stripping of the assets of the privatized enterprises rather than their market-oriented restructuring.
    http://www.twnside.org.sg/title/1998-cn.htm

    And the world thinks Kiwi’s are such lovely people:
    “He’s not a person who would seek or want a public profile,” says Bryce Wilkinson(Don Brash’s productivity taskforce), an economist with Capital Economics who moved in the same circles as Jennings in the late 1980s. “He just gets on and does things. He’s just an unassuming Kiwi, really.”…………….
    “The privatisation programme called for the distribution of 144 million vouchers to Russian citizens, who could then use them to bid in auctions for state assets. Ideally, this would create a broad base of public ownership.”……………
    “Meanwhile, it became apparent that the Russian public weren’t enamoured with the idea of stock ownership. “People on the street didn’t believe it,” Jordan said. “They felt that if the voucher could buy them two bottles of vodka, then that was better than something called equity.”,……………
    “Spotting their chance, Jordan and Jennings switched tack and began acquiring vouchers on behalf of investors who could secure state assets on the cheap in the following wave of privatisations.”………
    “It was a never-to-be-repeated opportunity. As the great Russian writer Alexander Solzhenitsyn told the German magazine Der Spiegel last month, “In his haste to have private rather than state ownership as quickly as possible, Yeltsin started a mass, multi-billion-dollar fire sale of the national patrimony.”
    Evans says the Russian public agree with Solzhenitsyn’s judgment on Yeltsin’s privatisation programme: “Most people think it was daylight robbery, which it was.”…….
    “According to the New York Times, Jordan and Jennings helped CS First Boston secure 12 percent of the vouchers for their clients. And, thanks not least to their efforts, in 1994 the investment bank reported a profit of $87 million from their Russian operations.
    That same year Jordan was reportedly paid a bonus of $5 million. (The amount paid to Jennings was not disclosed, but around the same time he bought property in New Zealand.)
    http://www.russiablog.org/2008/06/the_founders_of_renaissance_ca_1.php (part 1)

    http://www.russiablog.org/2008/06/the_founders_of_renaissance_ca.php (part 2)

    Just remember folks back in 2005 John Key fancied NZ as a base for 200 banks?
    “In the right conditions you could attract 200 banks to register here – each with a CEO and staff. You could attract insurance companies. Bring back lots of Kiwi accountants and lawyers. Single out clusters – such as high-class yachts – or other special sectors as the Irish did.”
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/fiscal-policy/news/article.cfm?c_id=203&objectid=10336608&pnum=1

    How much more irrefutable evidence from the mouths of the major players of the international finance racket will it take to see the Sheoples of this nation stop meekly walking up the ramp at the freezing works into the hands of the ilk of Rodney Hide and Co.

11. Iain Parker Says:
    December 13th, 2009 at 8:54 pm

    Ah hello,
    Not many like facts in this country, put facts on the table, they quiver in fear and go to ground lest an uncomfortable struggle might be needed to combat the nasties those facts contain.
    After months of trying I am yet to get an individual Member of Parliament to admit to have read my submission ( http://publiccreditorbust.blog.com/2009/08/31/iain-parkers-submission-to-unofficial-government-banking-inquiry/) to the unofficial banking inquiry, because to do so will leave them no excuses.
    John Key refused under the official information to inform me of just what his role was as an advisor on the foreign exchange committee of the Us Federal Reserve 1999-01

    Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored, for some facts read from here down http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/12/11/rbnzs-bollard-talks-at-mps-press-conference-about-the-rates-outlook-house-prices-mortgage-rates-and-christmas/comment-page-1/#comment-52262

    Dont be such limp wristed cowards that those that fought for our -supposed- freedom would be ashamed of.

12. The Bank Manager Says:
    December 14th, 2009 at 9:38 am

    REINZ housing statistics for month of November will be released today.

13. Iain Parker Says:
    December 14th, 2009 at 8:15 pm

    We are stuffed, We are stuffed. Above are some of the hardest hitting irrefutable facts you will come across and even those with an advanced knowledge of things financial have become nervous bystanders.
    Bad buggers grow stronger when good buggers hesitate.

    This wee vid outlines what is required, with the only difference being the system would not be in corporate hands of course, but in public ownership as the interest free public credit powered monetary base for the people.
    http://www.imsbarter.com/about-ims (click on watch vid)

    To know why this is needed read above post’s, and get active doing something about it or you too, just like the NZ media, will be getting a thank you from the Muppet below:
    From RBNZ Press Conference Dec 10 2009 re Dec quarter monetary policy statement;

    Question from Barry?
    “are we to expect a properous and happy new year”?

    Answer from Allan Bollard
    “Thank you Barry for that point, finally on a more personal note, since this is the last press conference of the year, I would like to thank you very much for your help and co-operation through the year, it has been one amazing year as you all know, at the beginning of this year we were seriously worried about the financial system and the state of the economy, both in New Zealand and internationally, its with some releive that we see much more secure conditions as we go into christmas time. I am aware that, um, at the beginning of the year when New Zealand was in such a vulnerable state, actually it would only have taken a, ah, one of the major media people looking for a fast headline, acting on rumour or passing on something irresponsibly to have sparked off some real problems in our system, that, we were concerned about that, that didn’t happen. You all, I felt, acted very responsibly through that and for that we would like to thank you. Finally its not a forecast but a wish, have a merry christmas, Barry and evryone else, thank you very much.”

    The most relevant sentence for me;
    “or passing on something irresponsibly to have sparked off some real problems in our system”

    Not to say what you might have passed on wasn’t true, it just would have dented the confidence in what is a confidence scam and the commoners may have woken up and demanded something more equitable.

14. Iain Parker Says:
    December 14th, 2009 at 10:05 pm

    Here we go, the bloody house traders back to their game of musical chairs.

    This:
    “As part of the program to expand the use of book entry, the Treasury began offering new bills exclusively in book-entry form in 1979. In August 1986, with the introduction of a program named Treasury Direct, the Treasury began marketing all new notes and bonds only in book-entry form.
    Treasury Direct makes principal, interest and redemption payments on notes and bonds bought through the Fed directly into an individual investor’s account at a financial institution. These payments are made electronically rather than by check. The Treasury Direct system was expanded to include bills in 1987.
    http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed05.html

    Is what needs to be turned into this for the public good:

    “This wee vid outlines what is required, with the only difference being the system would not be in corporate hands of course, but in public ownership as the interest free public credit powered monetary base for the people.
    http://www.imsbarter.com/about-ims (click on watch vid)”

    He says, wasting his breath, into the void of the land of cowering Sheoples.

15. Gibber Says:
    December 14th, 2009 at 11:08 pm

    Iain,
    for what its worth, with the end of 2009 rapidly approaching, I’d like you to know that yourself and Wally are my favourite two posters on interest.co.nz

    Yourself – for your passion, your willingness to express your opinion, and to call bullshit when someone is spouting forth with verbal effluent.

    Wally simply because he is so entertaining and manages to get a rise out of the grumpy “optimists” from time to time.

16. Iain Parker Says:
    December 16th, 2009 at 10:46 pm

    Thanks Gibber, looks like all my other friends have deserted me, just when I thought I might get a few to get active in the new year, join in resistance and pin our protestations to the doors of the Treasury and RBNZ, aaahhhhh but then I woke up and realised I was still in the land of the Sheoples being herded and harvested by cronies at the head of the theifdom.

    John A Lee wrote this in 1963
    “Today Labour is the second party, the alternative government. Office comes from the mistakes of opponents, from the swing of the pendulum. Where once people were urged to vote Labour with appeals to their intelligence and to their hearts, now they vote Labour simply because it is anti-Tory, or they vote Tory because it is ant-Labour. Ideas count for little compared with party loyalty.”

    “All social transformations are theoretically impossible, except that the impossible is constantly being achieved. In politics, as in academic economics, what is possible and what is possible is determined more by inherited dogma than by common sense.”

    Rob Muldoon said this in 1985
    ” The international institutions must be reformed with a mandate that fits the needs of the 1980s and into the 21st century. The immediate debt crisis must be dealt with, not as a bale out of either the heavily indebted countries or commercial banks but as a means of averting the collapse of the worlds financial system with a resulting world wide depression such as we have not had since the 1930s, a depression from which no countries economy would be immune………….The first meeting of the Committee of twenty was held in Washington at the time of the IMF meeting of September 1972. We had high hope that it would bring together some new rules that
    would take the place of the former Bretton woods system. These hopes were not realised and some two years later, after the first oil shock, the committee changed its name Interim Committee enlarged it membership to 22 to admit Saudi Arabia and later China and continued as a policy making body which in the first decade of its existence did little that warranted its continuing operation. In particular, it made no progress on the establishment of a new set of rules for the worlds monetary system, although it considered and discarded several worthwhile initiatives mainly because of objections to each by the United States. One was the proposal that the SDR should be
    established as the major international currency by substituting it for externally held currencies, principally US dollars. This tripped over the requirement that the United States should give some kind of guarantee in respect of the dollars that were substituted, which they were not prepared to do. Another proposal which was not acceptable was ’symmetrical surveillance’ that is to say, that the IMF should exercise surveillance over surplus countries as well as deficit countries, given that each dollar of surplus creates a dollar of deficit – atleast in theory, because the statistics do not add up by something of the order of $100 billion. It was held to be unreasonable that the whole burden of adjustment should fall on the deficit countries. The proposal was eminently fair and is an issue that I believe must be addressed again for it is
    inevitable that it form part of any stable system for world monetary relationships……….
    New Zealand has a record that is second to none in its support of international institutions of which we have been members, and our willingness to obey the rules, both in letter and in spirit. We have been constantly disappointed however, by the fact that so many countries – and among them some of the most affluent – have for domestic political reasons been prepared to bend or even ignore the rules when it suited their purpose. The history of the IMF and its sister organisations since the break down of the Bretton Woods system has unfortunately been one were short term self interest has overridden long term wisdom. That this has now apparently been recognised can not alter the unfortunate history of the years since 1971.”

    Amazing how those ridiculed or ignored by the private banker owned corporate media have proven to be the most enlightened?

17. Alen Says:
    December 16th, 2009 at 11:08 pm

    There are quite a few people around Iain who appreciate your effort

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