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13 Responses to “90 seconds at 9am: Bernanke reappointed; Allied share slump; BNZ buys AXA”

1. Rob Says:
   December 18th, 2009 at 12:16 pm

   I don’t agree with your statement, that nearly 25% of Hanover investors didn’t want the deal so will likely sell their shares. I don;t see how you can make such a statement, and it is a huge assumption. The people I know who voted against the deal are going to keep them long term. Actually it is the people who voted for the deal, 75% who are more likely to sell their shares, as they wanted the deal to go ahead and get shares so they can get some cash back now, and just to be rid of the whole thing. The 25% who didn’t want the shares are just a likely to sit on them, as the 75% who voted for the deal.

2. Steven Says:
   December 18th, 2009 at 1:05 pm

   2 or 3 cents then, is it a good buy at that price? might well be.

   @Rob: maybe, I think its not a black and white thing and I tend to agree with you myself. I dont see how ppl will off-load these, the price will collapse and they will get little, alot of burned ppl, which also speaks ill of corporate bons maturity dates. If the company survives I’d guess its the longer term ppl who will benefit, “wise” investors maybe unless it tanks, I will watch this over the coming year with great interest.

   regards

   regards

3. Bernard Hickey Says:
   December 18th, 2009 at 1:55 pm

   Rob

   Fair enough. A big assumption. I still think we’ll see 25% of the shares come onto the market though in the next few months.
   The pressure down on the share price will be enormous.

   cheers
   Bernard

4. Roger Thompson Says:
   December 18th, 2009 at 2:46 pm

   2 billion shares of the revamped Allied Farmers will be sloshing around in investors’ pockets , as of next week . Unless sufficient buyers , bottom fishers , or plain fools , step up to the plate , who will buy them ? As disgruntled and panicked Handoverians bail , who stands on the other side of the trade . And why ? Maybe the trickery of a consolidation , say 5 into 1 , will assuage fears of a full blown share price collapse , for a while . 400 million raises the par value from 20.7 to $ 1.035 . Looking sounder already . Way cool , in the money , now ! Allied may have that in mind already .

   But does anyone here have an inkling of the ratio of assets to liabilities ? How many % does the property market need to fall , before the company is underwater , bankrupt , kaput ? I recall looking at a US commercial REIT , with a market cap. of $ 300 m US , and net assets of $ 1 billion . An awesome bargain to purchase a buck’s worth of assets for just 30 pennies . A cursory glance of the company’s balance sheet revealed $ 11 billion in assets , and $ 10 billion of borrowings . It only took a 9 % fall in asset values for the company to go ” Chapter 11 ” …….. they got a 12 % fall ! Will Allied Farmers venture down the same path ?

5. Curtis Says:
   December 18th, 2009 at 3:06 pm

   @ roger – they didnt pay anything – so why does it matter what value the assets drop by ?

6. Roger Thompson Says:
   December 18th, 2009 at 4:49 pm

   Tony Gibbs did well to dump GPG’s shares in ALF @ 20 cents , last week . A million shares traded today , and current price is 13.5 cents . Gonna be a grand theatre next week when the 2 billion shares are into play . Gotta ring-side seat , and a big bag of gummy bears . Unleash the lions , centurion , the Handoverians are in the arena . Ave !

   Not sure Curtis how you believe that Handoverians ” didn’t pay anything ” . ….. My impression was that they paid quite alot . Enough for one gentlemen to starve himself into an early grave . That seems a high price to me .

   Please expatiate on .

7. Rob Says:
   December 18th, 2009 at 7:22 pm

   Thanks Bernard for you reply. I think we will see at least 25% offloaded too, but I think many will be sold by those people who voted for the deal, simply because they want to get out of it and move on with their life.
   I also think there will be some that will try to offload now quickly , if they can get a highish price (perhaps hopefully above 5 cents) to get as much value as they can while the price being paid is high, and then they may buy back at a later stage, at a lower price when the price settles down. (say 1 cent)
   It will be interesting to see if the Hanover directors or another organisation try to buy the shares at a really low price, and try to get control over Allied, as it would be in their interests to buy it at a highly discounted price.

8. Curtis Says:
   December 18th, 2009 at 9:48 pm

   allied didnt pay anything

9. Roger Thompson Says:
   December 18th, 2009 at 10:21 pm

   The shareholders in Allied paid for their stake in the company . Now they have bugger-all left of their money . And soon that’ll be a fraction of bugger-all . Who is it that lost nothing in this shamozzle ( Eric the Eel & Happy Hotchin !!! ) . Everyone else has paid a hefty price . What do you fail to understand in that ?

10. Curtis Says:
    December 19th, 2009 at 8:30 am

    allied shareholders have had their shareholding value protected – do some research

11. Happy Says:
    December 19th, 2009 at 4:44 pm

    To Curtis,

    Tell me how the original allied shareholders have had their value protected. Since the deal, their share price has fallen to 15 cents. Now they get to wait 2 years to see if the company can get some value out of the deal.
    The Hanover investor agreed to a 20 cent share price in ALF on Wednesday, and the best they can do is sell on Monday at 15 cents and more than probably a lot lower. So, in other words they will not get the 72 cents back in the dollar as suggested when the deal was “sold to them”, as now they have already had a 25% loss!
    The ALF shareholder does even worse as there shareprice has receeded from around 40 cents (rights issue price) to 15 cents and its going south!
    The bonus shares dont kick in for 2 years, so they need to put them in the bottom shelf and sit tight while Rob Alloway fixes up the company.

12. Roger Thompson Says:
    December 21st, 2009 at 10:33 am

    Update : Allied Farmers issued 1952 294 858 shares ( 98.069 % of total listed ALF ) to Hanoverians . Minutes into first day of trading on NZX , of the new entity , share price has fallen 18.92 % from 14.8 cents , to 12.0 cents . And someone ( Curtis ) thinks that the original Allied shareholders are protected , and that they got something for nothing . I’m yet to be convinced . 1000 000 shares traded , already . Roll on the next 10 whole minutes .

    Update # 2 : 1418 104 traded . Last price 10.1 cents . A 32 % fall this morning………….Glad that the only thing I blew my dough on was this bag of gummy bears . Yummy gummy !

13. Nicholas Arrand Says:
    December 21st, 2009 at 10:41 am

    It’s our own version of Q/E, Roger! Puts real cash back to the Hanover debenture holders to stimulate the economy. But at a terrible cost.

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