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Allied Farmers shares collapse to 10c after 1.9 billion shares issued (Update 1)
December 21st, 2009
Shares in rural financing group Allied Farmers collapsed 32% to 10c a share this morning after Allied Farmers notified the market that 1.91 billion new shares had been issued to Hanover Finance investors in the wake of the debt-for-equity swap proposal voted through by a whisker last week. (Adds comments from Allied Farmers on how Hanover investors can get hold of their shares and closing price)
Just over 1.4 million shares were traded in the first hour and the share price closed at 10 cents after 4.2 million shares were traded.
The slump in the share price since the vote last Wednesday mean Hanover Finance investors have lost 52% of the value of their shares in four days. The shares were issued at 20.7 cents a share.
Allied Farmers said it expected Hanover and United investors would be notified of their share allocations and FIN numbers from Tuesday onwards.
John Loughlin said shares were allotted to new shareholders on the evening of 18 December and allotment notices were posted on Sunday at noon. Share allotment notices should be received by new shareholders in the mail from 22 December Tuesday. FIN numbers enabling new shareholders to trade shares were mailed on Monday.
“New shareholders wanting to trade Allied Farmers shares prior to receiving their FIN number by mail should contact a share broker who can obtain this information from the registry, Link Market Services, by providing the registry with an indemnity.”
All shares must be traded using a share broker, Allied said.
You can follow the share price and trading volumes here.
Tags: Allied Farmers, Hanover Finance, Mark Hotchin, Rob Alloway
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December 21st, 2009 at 10:50 am
Well what a surprise! But that drop was on the selling of less than 0.1% of the new shares issued. Wait while the selling really starts – here comes 1c per share.
December 21st, 2009 at 10:53 am
yer – but wow, their assets have just doubled !
December 21st, 2009 at 11:04 am
Tony Gibbs ( GPG ) gave his reason for walking away from a deal with Hanover ( and by consequence , his reason for bailing out of Allied Farmers ) , a lack of transparency in Hanover’s books . The master asset stripper couldn’t see if there were any assets left , after all liabilities were accounted for . Now , I admit to not being the shiniest coin in the mint , but I is smarts enuff to follow / trust in Gibb’s acumen .
And one little matter : The registry hasn’t allocated SRN numbers to the Hanoverians , yet , so who is responsible for this morning’s heavy trade in Allied Farmers shares ? She’s getting hotter by the moment , this story .
The guy with the gummy bears ain’t the dummerest one around…..not quite .
December 21st, 2009 at 11:14 am
Once the Hanoverians start selling this puppy is going to look a lot sicker. I wonder when those SRN numbers finally get dished out.
Anyway, now the share price has dropped 50%, the price has to now rally 100% for the Hanoverians to get back to their issue price. Its going to be a long wait and considering all the grey hair I was seeing on the news these folks don’t have enough time to wait.
December 21st, 2009 at 11:36 am
i was out charter fishing y/day in the Gulf.
the skipper was late sixties and had close to 300K in Hangover…he didn’t seem particularly concerned as he was holding for the long term with the view that although he’d never benefit from his investment, his younger wife and daughter stood a chance of the shares in Allied being worth something when he passed on.
this is an attitude i’ve heard amongst others…sort of makes sense.
“such is life “were the last words that Ned Kelly said before they pulled the lever!
December 21st, 2009 at 11:47 am
Time to pop the cork on the 2009 Schadenfreude, methinks.
December 21st, 2009 at 11:48 am
Hey Rob
Yeah I guess he has the luxury of not needing the money at any stage in the next 5-10-20 years, if at all. I guessing hes the exception for Hanoverians.
December 21st, 2009 at 11:55 am
What do you reckon, Roger. Tony Gibbs today’s buyer at 10c? Someone has soaked up 4m+. Mind you, that’s only an outlay of… not very much for 50% off last weeks face value?
December 21st, 2009 at 12:00 pm
i presume you all know that after GPG a.k.a tony gibbs had a sniff around Allied ; that the mystery seller of a large amount of Allied shares the week before last was…..GPG selling it’s 4.1% existing pre-hanover shareholding in Allied?
December 21st, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Ooooooooooooooh : This is pug ugly , Link Registries has issued SRN’s to some Hanoverians , for their Allied Farmer’s shares . Other Hanoverians are still awaiting their security registry numbers . The advantage given to some to trade out , ahead of others . Shagging hell , this debacle gets worse .
[ NA : No , Gibbs bailed . He's an investor , not a gambler . Our little Warren Buffett , if you will . Even at 1 cent , these shares may prove worthless . If I was to stand on a street corner and other bags of gummy bears in exchange for Allied script , I may be screwed on the deal ! Cheers : Rogie ]
December 21st, 2009 at 12:14 pm
1.9B x 0.05c = $95m.
$95M = ~95% of Allied Farmers
Allied farmers (pre Hanover) net assets = $10m
Hanover assets = $400m (book value) or est,$200m (real value)
Post Hanover = AF net assets $210m
5c = good value
December 21st, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Cirtus, that’s basically saying that AF should make accounting losses of $50m a year for the next couple of years.
December 21st, 2009 at 12:36 pm
@ David
$200m is a guess based on Grant Samuel report …
“five largest loans are Five Mile ($72.4m); Kawerau Falls ($88.7m); Jacks Point ($44.9m); Kinloch Golf Course ($24m) and Silverdale ($23.1m)”.
My guess that they will successfully collect the Hanover related party loans.
December 21st, 2009 at 12:54 pm
David H : Allied Farmers has been crushing shareholder wealth since 2005 . The price exceeded $ 3 / share . That was before they even dreamt of becoming property developers . Then they were just utterly failing at what they specialised in ! Now they have the opportunity to screw up in an alien industry . And bless them , I believe they will .
I offer small bags of gummy bears in exchange for newly minted Allied script . ….. . C’mon Hanoverians , this is a better deal than you’ll get on the NZX !
December 21st, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Seems like these guys could teach a few tricks to Goldman Sucks, Morgan Stanley, etc.
And all that wealth is being syphoned off right in the public arena, in public view.
Great work guys, restoring average Kiwi’s faith in the stock market, private companies, and their backers in the political spectrum.
Capitalism is not dead after all.
Alive and kicking well (even those who are down) in GodZone.
December 21st, 2009 at 1:09 pm
@ Emkay – yawn.
December 21st, 2009 at 1:29 pm
I am curious to know why Weldonia ( A.K.A. the NZX ) doesn’t suspend trading in Allied Farmers , until ALL Hanoverians have possession of their CSN / SRN numbers . How bloody ridiculous that some have the advantage ( as such ) of being able to trade their shares , whilst others must be passive observers of proceedings . Nearly 6.4 million shares swapped hands today . 4 times the previous one-day trading record for this stock .
Mark Weldon awake ? Jane Diplock still alive ?
December 21st, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Roger – that trading halt idea is exactly what was needed. This whole process has been a shambles.
December 21st, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Yes Sam : As if we needed any further confirmation as to why Mom & Pop Kiwi don’t trust the sharemarket . It’s the wild west , dude . Sheriff Weldon is the boozy lawman , asleep , with his gut hanging over his gun-belt ……….Only got blanks to fire , anyhoo !!!!!………..Wonder if his gal , dippy Jane , will arrive with the coffee and beans , to sober our hero up ? ( kick him in the arse , Janey )
December 21st, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Should have taken the impartial receivership option.
December 21st, 2009 at 3:30 pm
A trading halt cannot be issued for more than a couple of days. I highly doubt this rule would be changed just for these hanover investors. It you saw the market depth it wouldn’t matter if they all got their SRNs at the same time or not. There simply isn’t enough buyers.
December 21st, 2009 at 3:42 pm
I beg to differ , Bruce . This is most unprofessional , downright unethical , that shareholders are not being treated equally . Allied ought to be suspended from trading until all Hanoverians have their CSN / SRN numbers . That comes back to a monumental stuff-up on the part of the registry , LINK . Arses needed to be booted mightily , their’s first . Mark Weldon second . Absolutely appalling situation . Gutless feckers at NZX and Securities Commission should be sacked immediately . No excuses for this shite . If I was a Hanoverian , awaiting my precious numbers , watching helplessly whilst others can cut-and-run , I’d be calling my lawyer right now . Faecal material will impact upon the oscillating wind device !!!
December 21st, 2009 at 3:47 pm
People selling shares does not affect the material value of the company, that a million shares is sold in one hour doesn’t affect what the price will be in a weeks time from now.The only problem at the moment is there is not enough buyers so obviously the price will tank. I see no reason for a trading halt, even if they all got it on one day it would not change the simple fact that someone is always going to get in first.
The NZX has very clear rules as to what the grounds for a trading halt are, and this does not meet them as far as I can tell. I would think that it would result in a query to ALF as to why so many are being traded though.
December 21st, 2009 at 4:19 pm
So you don’t feel that all shareholders have equal rights ? Some are favoured , ” more-equal ” , than others . How do we select who the chosen ” golden ones ” are ? The price of the stock a week from now is not an issue . The issue is that at any moment in time ALL shareholders have the equal right to hold / sell / increase their holdings . Today , some do not have the ability to sell . Beyond ” fairness ” , this is into litigious territory , now . ………… Glad to have a ring-side-seat . And a bag of succilicious gummy bears . High drama indeed ! And I am not one little bit surprised by the imcompetence of all concerned . Nice to know , as village idiot , that others are striving so valiantly for my title !
December 21st, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Roger – I agree with your analysis of this situation. I bet the ALF shareholders, without their SRN’s, who were watching the share price today would be pulling their hair out with frustration. Tomorrow should again be interesting as everyone tries to exit their ALF shares at the same time.
December 21st, 2009 at 5:38 pm
So who are these people that bought Allied shares at 10 cents a share?
December 21st, 2009 at 8:28 pm
Bruce = correct
Roger = wrong
December 21st, 2009 at 9:53 pm
Don’t recall you as one of my school teachers , but you’ve got me summed up ‘like they always did . Nevertheless , and irregardless of the NZX’s rules , all shareholders should have equal opprtunity to buy / sell / hold . If that is not in the NZX rules ( and Lordy knows I ain’t trolling thru them tonight ) , then that proves my theory of the NZX’s uselessness , and the ” wild west ” metaphor . Goodnight Curtis . Goodnight gummy bear munchers , the world over : ” Stick it to ‘em , before they chew you ! ” Amen .
December 21st, 2009 at 10:06 pm
it would have made stuff all difference because there wont be 2 billion purchasers … i’ll be happy to buy a few from them, poor buggars – but then again, they need to take responsibility for investing in hanover in the first place … harsh lessons. what will be interesting is if institutional investors get on board – anyone know at what price Allied Farmers will qualify for NZX50 ?
December 21st, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Who is the lunatic buying at 10 cents, like catching a falling sword and who would guess there are people out there dumber than the loons who voted for this fiasco. Seriously at 10 cents a share that is an optomistic recovery level and ALF have less expertise than Hanover have at collections, if you folllow the press Hanover were incredibly aggressive in collecting their debts.
2 cents a share is the target and even at that level it better be an amount you dont mind losing.
December 22nd, 2009 at 3:55 am
If Curtis’s calculations ( above ) are accurate , the N.T.A. @ 5 cents per new share , why pay twice that ? Plenty of legitimate property trusts listed ( AMP Office / Goodman / Kiwi Income ) on the NZX , which have a history of dividend payments , and which trade below their N.T.A. So ” why buy Allied “, is a very good question , David . It pleases me to think that someone out there is dumberer than me ………..Or , maybe there is a plan afoot , a strategy of some big player . We’ll see . [ 4 a.m. = the Gummy Bears are all mine . Yippeeeeeee ! ]
Investment advisor Chris Lee has commented against the Allied / CSN / NZX shambles . Totally unfair situation to those Hanoverians without the CSN numbers . ( on Radio NZ news , @ 3 a.m. )
December 22nd, 2009 at 8:37 am
Chris Lee … cough cough … apparently SCF is a good investment. I wouldnt be surpirsed in he invested in hanover on behalf of these old ducks …
2c values the hanover assets at $38M – that a pretty big discount from a recently audited (supposidely marked to maket) value of $400m.
My problem with investing is … when Allied Farmers does sell these assets, what will they do with the cash – they dont exactly have a great track record.
December 22nd, 2009 at 9:37 am
The company summary on NZX for Allied still has them as Industry Group = Primary, Sector = Agriculture & Fishing. I wonder if they’ll get round to updating that at some point? In fact, Allied’s own website still saying 5.200 listed shareholders. zzz.
December 22nd, 2009 at 9:46 am
If they had a market value of 400 million they would have sold the assets, fact is there is no market for their assets and no funding for someone to buy those assets. No doubt this will change at some point in the future but at the moment recoveries from finance companies involved in property has been cents in the dollar (if that) and they were all involved in very similar markets. Five mile in Queenstown was worth a couple of million out of a 93 million exposure.
If ALF was a well capitalized company they could take out the first mortgagee on some of these loans and fund their completion.
I think investing at 10 cents in the dollar is still incredibly risky Curtis for exactly the reason you put forward in that ALF will have to take any money they get and then pay out their own debenture holders before the shareholders see anything at all. Hanover investors have just voted to subordinate their claims to below the company that refills the water cooler at ALFs offices.
December 22nd, 2009 at 9:51 am
2c = great buy
5c = good buy
10c = speculative
15c = you idiot
December 22nd, 2009 at 11:56 am
@Roger
The sharemarket does not operate on a basis that the first people to sell get more than the people that sell a week later. Share price is only indicative of the last sale and for a sale to take place you need a buyer and a seller. Next week there could be just as many people buying at 10c and there was last week. Most informed buyers just determine the value of shares based on the value of it’s assets and how much it returns. Getting in “early” means NOTHING. It always takes a variable amount of time to get a SRN from an issue.
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:07 pm
I really don’t get how Roger’s point isn’t being taken here??
There are quite likely going to be a limit on the amount of $$ out there to buy ALF shares.
In fact, probably more sellers than buyers?
How can it be then that some sellers are being told to wait at the gate, and have to cross their fingers that by the time they are let through, there are still some buyers left floating about?
Just seems totally ridiculous and yet another terrible advert for the NZX. Surely?!
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Hamish. It all comes down to market depth. The current bid price (12:15pm) is 11c.
The depth is:
20,238 – 11
219,000 - 10.8
10,000 - 10.7
4,000 - 10.6
483,210 - 10.5
319,141 - 10.2
152,500 - 10.1
955,000 - 10
43,369 - 9.9
36,331 - 9.8
100,000 - 9.7
112,000 - 9.6
1,340,000 - 9.5
10,000 - 9.3
53,500 - 9.2
700,780 - 9
60,000 - 8.6
125,000 - 8.5
50,000 - 8.4
290,000 - 8.2
120,000 - 8.1
1,191,750 - 8
All it would take is one hanover investor with $200,000 before the issue to sell and the price would be down to 8c. This is why it makes no difference. NZPost can not deliver letters everywhere in NZ at the same time.
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:28 pm
bruce – its a lot deeper at 5c
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Sorry to digress, Bruce. But not being in the wholsale market, may I ask: is there an access point for retail traders to view the depth figures for all other NZX issues?
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Nicholas, those numbers were just pulled from ASB securities. Free to set up an account there.
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Sure, N.Z.Post can’t deliver to all delivery points simultaneously, but they can certainly deliver simultaneously to as many delivery points as they have delivery agents.
Anyway, if I was to go to the extreme, and there was only one ever buyer for these shares as at Monday, and 12 thousand odd potential sellers, and one of those sellers is given the ability to sell ahead of all others, then;
that buyer may or may not know what the best potential buying price is out there because the buyer doesn’t have access to all the potential sellers at the same time,
and 12 thousand odd sellers less one are waiting behind one seller and at their whim as to whether they are going to satisfy the solitary buyer, or whether the buyer is still unfulfilled by the time they then get access.
Obviously I’m a bit naive here, never directly been on the share market. But if this is an example of the sort of playground rules they have, then screw that. Wild west indeed.
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Thankyou Hamish : You expressed my point so much better than I was managing to do . Indeed , this exercise has been a poor advertisement for the NZX , the registry ( Link ) , and the Securities Commission . The message sent to the general public is that we are not all treated equally . And that our incompetence may cost you money . And we don’t see that as a problem .
December 22nd, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Good point. However consider that at the current depth, it someone got it at 9:00am and sold their entire allocation at market value it could drive the price right down to a fraction of what it was before. Does this mean ALF shares are now worthless? No, as 2 minutes later there are new buyers. The current price != true value of the shares. It merely indicates the last trade, which could be a fraction of an entire trade parcel, sold for that price.
If it takes anymore than a week, I would certainly agree with you. A couple of days shouldn’t have any impact however. Has everybody got their by now?
December 22nd, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Simple law of demand and supply. More the supply, less the price. That is why some farmers get their produce first to the market ahead of others to get a good price. As the season progresses and more produce comes in, the price dips. Also due to lack of buyers as people have already bought and don’t need any more.
Same with shares, with more sellers, the early ones get a better price and more buyer demand. Down the line, demand evaporates and supply keeps coming in, depressing the price.
Also information is money. Even in US there has been scandals and outrages about the large dealers having a split second advantage in deals over the other brokers. I think it is called ‘flash trading’.
Also there is the ‘herd’ effect of large selling.
So markets are not fair and many ex-Hanover investors would lose, if they can’t get in the act earlier.
December 22nd, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Bruce : A couple of days saw ALF’s share price plummet from 29 to 20 cents ( one day ) , and from 20 to 15 cents ( second day ) . That is significant , as GPG was unloading their holding . How were Hanoverians not to assume that this plunge would continue . As it happened the share price stabilised around 10 cents . But this still misses the crux of all shareholders having equal rights to trade ( buy / sell / hold ) their shares at each moment that the NZX is open . Some were able to use their existing CSN numbers to bail out , ahead of others . That is not a level playing field .
December 22nd, 2009 at 3:39 pm
It was a decision by Allied farmers to progressively distribute NOT Link or NZX.
Market depth is important but just another indicator, watch the depth change if the price starts to fall and the bids dissappear very rapidly. Depth is best used for when you are ready to hit the trigger, either way, rather than any percieved value call.
December 22nd, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Because it is an NZX top 50 share, don’t institutional investors have to purchase these Allied farmers shares? I suspect that is why the price is holding up at the moment? I don’t know enough about our sharemarket, but I though suspending trading for a week would have been a fair deal for investors.
December 22nd, 2009 at 5:12 pm
@ Rob.
Is it now NZX50 ?? Market cap is currently only $200M (roughly) … what qualifies for NZX50 (or doesn’t it need to enter at 45 to qualify?)
December 22nd, 2009 at 7:41 pm
@Curtis I am not sure. I just remember watching something on TV from one of the financial experts, saying that because it would be in the NZX50 (at least initially) that institutional investors would have to buy it. It it drops out, then I suspect things will change dramatically for the price.
It was interesting to hear that chief of Allied say that there has been alot of misguided speculation on the share price, and only a few people know the actual value of the company and have seen the loan book. However surely that information including details of the load book, should have been provided to Hanover investors prior to making the decision, as it was essential information so they they could judge what the value of the company, and whether the allied shares were good value. To me, this all looks to be a big mess, and doesn’t give me any confidence in NZ financial system and share registry.
December 22nd, 2009 at 8:57 pm
Roger T – fergit all that serious moneytaree’ reform shite (well at least till tomorrow, yawn, more angles ….), are you long on this, you sly bugger:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/3187205/Sleep-inducing-milk-trialled-in-Taiwan.
Have you Loburn’ites been spiking with the MacCallans? Dodgy lot.
Merry Christmas, it’s been a pleasure jawing with you over the year. LoL pal.
Cheers, Les.
December 22nd, 2009 at 10:04 pm
‘Ello Less , you old silly sausage . ‘As yer put summit in me bummy gears , ‘cos I feel all queer —- oops , sorry Terence , was that you ? Sum feckers put wine gums in dere , spinning out , ah . Oh hello . Um . I hope the Easter bunny brings you lots of presents Lionel . Is it Ken ? Bugger it , happy birthday anyway . Enjoy the Labour weekend . Hic . ……………… . These aren’t my teeth ???…………GRANNNNNNNNY !!!!!
From the Lodgy Dot at Loburn :
Leers Ches , are no , you’re Ches , Les . Rogie ! And another thing you old rascal zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
December 23rd, 2009 at 3:50 am
Crikey Les : Got a gummy bear hang-over !!! Don’t know what I did tonight at the Press , but today’s newspapers have more of a tomato soup texture and aroma than they usually do .
Some good local news : Smith City Group announced a net half year profit up 23 % . But overall revenue fell 6 % . Guess they’re hunkering down , cutting costs . They’ve opening their first North Island store , in Porry-rua .
BERL reckon the economic recovery will be curved , in a ” saucer ” shape . Think they’ve been on the sauce . I’m picked a dried cow-pat shaped economic recovery , an improvement from last year’s sloppy wet cow-pat performance .
Where the hell is everyone at 3 : 50 in the morning ………….Ah well , all the yummy gummies are for me . ( ” hair of the dog ” as they say ) Yipppeeeeeee !
December 23rd, 2009 at 12:28 pm
ALF ( doesn’t that have a cheery Xmas ring about it ! ) is up 12 % today . Ka-powie , Batman . You mean that the Hanoverians have only lost 41 % of their equity , since receiving their 20.7 cent shares ? Yes Robin , thundering za-zounds , ain’t the capital markets grand . A single tear rolls down my cheek . God bless the NZX , and all who sail in her .
December 23rd, 2009 at 4:23 pm
@Roger Thompson said “Guess they’re hunkering down , cutting costs . They’ve opening their first North Island store , in Porry-rua ”
Actually they used to be in Wellington on Taranaki Street (where briscoes now is), in the 90’s. However they went into liquidation, and retreated back to the south island. They do however now own LV Martins in the north island.
December 23rd, 2009 at 4:26 pm
@Roger Thompson Why do you think they have gone up to 12 cents. Is it because not many people are selling them yet due to Xmas. There don’t appear to be that many getting sold. 12 cents actually seems quite good to me, if you are a hanover investor, as finanical experts predicted a price of between 1-5 cents. I would sell now and buy back at a later date. Who is actually buying them at 12 cents. Can’t be too many. I can see that there is a buy call for 6 million shares at .01 cents, ever hopeful.
December 23rd, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Creeping up the stairs ,Rob, to drop back down the elevator shaft at some later stage? Xmas is good for this sort of low volume market moving stuff.
December 23rd, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Awesome information , Rob . Yes , as I recall Smith City skirted with bankruptcy , and the shares traded around 2 cents at one point . Maybe their directors should phone Allied Farmers , and tell them how to handle it ! That doesn’t necessarily mean the game is up , Whitcoulls got down to that level , and Graeme Hart swooped on the opportunity . Some things can be ressurrected ( sadly , that includes politicians , Dodgy Douglas and Winsome Peters ) .
NA has the answer , Rob . Until we get clarity on Hanover’s balance sheet , the assets – liabilities , the whole thing is sheer speculation . Tony Gibbs bailed out . I trust his judgement , as a value investor . Shares in GPG look infinitely sounder than Allied .
December 23rd, 2009 at 4:56 pm
Rob : Yes to selling now ! At 12 cents , a Hanoverian can recoup 45 % of their original ” investment ” in Hanover ( I failed maths at school , but went 12 cents into 20.7 cents , multiplied by 78 c / $ . Correct me if I’ve buggered that up ) .
12 months ago they could have had 80 % return immediately . But they chose a 100 % return in 5 years .
A sure thing of 45 % now seems the best option . Depending upon each individuals circumstance . But that money plonked into a quality stock ( Fletcher Bldg / Cavalier / Pumpkin Patch / Ryman ) would very likely double over the next 5 years , and re-coup the current losses . ( I would not buy back in at any price . Why dance a second time , if the lass crushed both your feet on the first lap of the disco ! )
December 24th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
A little report in today’s Press that Hanover investors seemed content to hold their Allied Farmers shares . And I wonder , that these folk must see value in the Hanover assets , which Tony Gibbs (GPG) couldn’t find . Then why did such ” sophisticated ” investors , clearly more clued up than Mr Gibbs , put their money into Hanover in the first instance . ‘Cos he didn’t , ergo , he isn’t the one 50 % down on the investment at this point .
When the poo hits the fan , and it will , eventually , the stampede towards the exit will crush this share price into the dust . 12 or 13 cents will look real good then !
December 30th, 2009 at 11:05 am
If it looks like a dog , and smells like a dog , and can twist around and licks it’s own nuts , its a woof woof ! You guys got a howler . The price of Allied has stabilised around the 12 cent level . Get out of this mangey flea bitten mutt , now !
When the real heavy selling begins , the price will plummet . They’ll be charging for the exits ‘like Hells Angels who accidentally gate-crashed a Celine Dion concert .
December 31st, 2009 at 12:46 pm
24 hour update : 11.1 c seems to be the going rate . A 8 % fall since yesterday . ………………. Listen ! The hounds are howling ………….. Ooooooooooooh , you’ve done yer dough , oooooooooooh ! Howl at the moon , you old dogs , for all the good it will do you , to getcha munny back .
January 12th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
January 12 update : A snap-shot of the year to date : As at 2 pm today , there have been 179 trades in Allied Farmers shares in 2010 , totalling $ 693 004 value . At 11.5 cents , the company has a market capitalisation of $ 225 m.
Now at random , a similarly sized property company is the Millennium&Copthorne group . Market cap $ 150 m. at todays price of 43 cents . As a comparison to Allied , MCK has had only 11 trades in 2010 , totalling $ 35 141 . A stark contrast in behaviours and fortunes !
January 12th, 2010 at 6:16 pm
Closing Bell : 198 trades to date , hmmmmmm , another 19 since 2:00 p.m. $ 150 000 crossed today . MCK , our comparative stock , 1 trade today , $ 46 000 . And the closing price of ALF , the ” jewel-in-your-crown ” ? 11.3 cents . Down 1.74 % today ………… What’s that dreary old Simon&Carbunkle song , ” Slip Sliding Away ” ……….. That’s yer munny folks , slip sliding away . [ Next time Bruce Sheppard stands up at a meeting of the disgruntled & patently stupid , shut the feck up , and pay attention to wot he says ! ]
January 12th, 2010 at 8:48 pm
Nice updates Roger
Here is some info on some upcoming investment courses for the baby boomers….
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=10619645
January 27th, 2010 at 4:57 pm
# curtis Says:
December 22nd, 2009 at 9:51 am
2c = great buy
5c = good buy
10c = speculative
15c = you idiot
Well, still waiting for a good buy, the price seems to be stuck at 11c.
January 28th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
Patience , dear heart ( D.H. ) , 10.9 cents today .
The question is not the price . But to determine value , what is the tangible asset backing per share . And perhaps , what is the debt-to-equity ratio ? Even at 10 cents , they may be no bargain . We need some transparency of the books .
And , given the abundance of better managers and better businesses elsewhere , why’d yer bother with these ?
You tell me : How do you define a ” good buy ” ? ‘Cos on this stinker , kiss yer munny ” good bye ” .
February 2nd, 2010 at 12:15 pm
Grant Williamson ( partner at Hamilton.Hindin.Greene stockbrokers , CHCH ) has an interesting take on Allied Farmers ( Radio NZ , Feb 1 ) . He feels that the initial surge of selling , by Hanoverians , is abating . And the the stock should trade in a narrower band now , leading up to the annual report . That will give clarity to the state of the company’s operations and it’s balance sheet . Sage comments , as ever . ……. Gummy bears to that man !
February 8th, 2010 at 10:44 am
Early morning , and 11 trades through ( 397 000 shares ) . And the price has slipped to 10.1 cents . So from the 20.7 cent conversion , you Hanoverians are now down below 50 cents in the dollar . Here is the conundrum : Bail now / Or hold ? The annual results are key to your future , for good or bad . Now this really is building a poker game tension .
My opinion , for what little it is worth , is that 50 cents in the hand now ( out of each dollar you have in this mangey mutt ) is good value . Lock that in . And find a real investment , something that has capable management and pays a reliable dividend , and one day you will recoup your losses [ Fletcher Builing / Cavalier / Hal-Glass / Briscoes / Steel&Tube / Ryman ]
February 12th, 2010 at 10:43 am
First two trades in Allied F. today , and a combined $ 892.70 of stock changed hands . Ye gods , Hanover didn’t leave much to you two , did it . Hope yer got a discount broker to cross the shares !
March 2nd, 2010 at 6:59 am
And now we have it , the full horror of the Allied Farmers/Handover books . Just months after the deal to fold Hanover into the Allied Farmers Group , accounting procedures and writedowns have halved the value of the Hanover assets .
The net asset value of ALF stands at just 7.4 cents . The share priced closed at 10 cents even , yesterday . Those Hanoverans who didn’t follow the advice of this raving loonie blogger stand to recoup just 30 % of their original investment .
Since my earlier call to cash out immediately at the run-down in the Allied share price , from 20 down to 13 cents , other stocks on the NZX have gone up . Some are run by competent people , earn profits , add shareholder value , pay dividends . ALF ain’t one of them . [ But I did list a few , including Fletcher Building , which has had a tidy run up since that time . ]
And if this little comment by your man , Rob Alloway , is anything to go by , hunker down for a long gruelling winter in your discount tent : ” Some of the properties could be developed and sold for 2 or 3 times their current value ……… . But likewise some could also be sold for less . I don’t think anything is worth what we originally envisaged . “
March 2nd, 2010 at 7:13 am
Entertainment Tip of the Day : Sit by computer screen and moniter ALF share price from the opening bell . As the bar has been set at 7.4 cents , and given that investors hate uncertainty , expect a free-fall in the share price of ALF . Turnover in shares may go stratospheric , in opposite direction but with equal velocity to the share price .
Those who months ago bayed for a share price in small numbers of cents may finally get their wish . ….
…. Even so , save yer dosh . If Rampaging Rob does manage to turn this turkey around , at the end of the day you’ve still got a stuffed bird with no sense of direction .
March 2nd, 2010 at 8:05 am
Question # 1 : What does Securities Commissioner Jane Diplock do from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. , to fill in the day ?
Question # 2 : How soon before Eric the eel and murky Mark issue a ” prospectus ” , once again , to part savers’ from their cash , for some other magical formula to reach riches beyond measure .
Question # 3 : Given the short term memory of many people , how long before Hanoverians vent their spleen upon Rob Alloway as if he is the architect of them losing their munny ?
March 2nd, 2010 at 10:31 am
As at 10:07 a.m. a 19 % fall in the ALF share price , to 8.1 cents . 24 trades crossed 554 200 shares .
10:11 a.m. 2 more trades , 650 950 total shares traded in total . 8.0 c last sale . Buyer at 7.5 cents . An even 20 % fall on the day ……….ahh , hour !
March 5th, 2010 at 6:04 pm
Closing the week at just 7.6 cents ………….less than 37 % of the 20.7 cent conversion rate . And still 2.7 % above their asset backing .
A long cold austere winter , in your discount tent ; happy camping Hanover investors .
Two tips to help you :
1 : the budget baked beans are as good as named brands
2 : don’t light camp-cookers in your tent , risk of carbon-monoxide fumes !
March 9th, 2010 at 10:06 am
Rod Oram will be on Radio-National with Kathryn Ryan from 11:05 – 11:30 this morning . Topic of the day is rumoured to be Allied Farmers . Definitely worth getting Mr. Oram’s take on the state of affairs .
[ mine is a suggestion to re-name the company to All Lied Charmers ]
March 9th, 2010 at 1:39 pm
Well said Mr. Oram : If anyone tunes in to hear this commentary , you will notice how scathing Rod Oram is of Watson/Hotchin and Alloway alike . Shareholders were promised 70 cents in the $ value , at the transition from Hanover to Allied Farmers , and just weeks later they’re down to 30 cents in the $ . Bugger ! Someone did not do enough due diligence , prior to the agreement . Someone should have followed GPG’s lead , kept well away . ………… . No knighthood for you this year , Mr. Alloway !