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Top 10 at 10: De-leveraging is inescapable; Spanish threat to euro; Banker with cohones; Dilbert

January 28th, 2010

Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions and comments below or please send suggestions for Fridday’s Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz Apologies for the delay. A tad hectic on OCR day.

Dilbert.com

1. Deleveraging 201 – Here’s another reason why US banks aren’t lending. They want to preserve their capital so they gifted the assets of other banks when they fail, according to one anonymous banker talking to Mish.

If you’re a bank with a relatively healthy balance sheet with adequate capital, (like us)you want to maintain surplus capital in order to stay on the FDIC’s list of banks they can transfer the loans and deposits from a failed institution into.

This is a home run for the acquiring bank and far more of an instant benefit than any new lending.

2. Spanish inquisition – Nouriel Roubini is more pessimistic about the future of the Euro than ever, telling Bloomberg that Spain’s dramas could pull it apart.


“Down the line, not this year or two years from now, we could have a breakup of the monetary union,” Roubini said in a Bloomberg Radio interview from the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “It’s a rising risk.”

Roubini’s concern contrasts with the view of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet who said it’s “absurd” to imagine that the 16-nation euro area could splinter. Speculation of a breakup has mounted in financial markets as Greece struggles to cut the continent’s biggest budget deficit and countries from Spain to Ireland face rising debt burdens.

“The euro zone could drift essentially with a bifurcation, with a strong center and a weaker periphery and eventually some countries might exit the monetary union,” said Roubini, who predicted the recent financial crisis a year before it began. “This is the very first test” of the single currency bloc.

3. Death by euro – Martin Wolf from the FT gives an excellent explanation of the problems of Southern Europe within the euro. He is basically pessimistic.

What would have happened during the financial crisis if the euro had not existed? The short answer is that there would have been currency crises among its members. The currencies of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain would surely have fallen sharply against the old D-Mark. That is the outcome the creators of the eurozone wished to avoid. They have been successful. But, if the exchange rate cannot adjust, something else must instead. That “something else” is the economies of peripheral eurozone member countries. They are locked into competitive disinflation against Germany, the world’s foremost exporter of very high-quality manufactures. I wish them luck

4. Getting desperate – Greece, helped by a friendly Goldman Sachs, is trying to borrow 25 billion euros from China, Reuters reports. All this reinforces the pressure on global markets for sovereign. New Zealand will borrow a big chunk this year. Let’s hope we don’t get lost amid all the begging and shouting. Luckily our public debt position is much stronger than the Europeans’ or Americans.

Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou will visit the United States and Asia, including China, on a road show next month, the WSJ said.

“There is a lot of liquidity in China. There are big funds in China. This is why China is going to be part of the road show,” Papaconstantinou told the WSJ in an interview.

5. The next lurch – Felix Salmon from Reuters is at Davos and doesn’t like what he sees from all the bankers there. They are way too complacent, he reckons.

My feeling is that the US poses at least as much of a risk to the global economy as southern Europe does. There’s a good chance that 2010 could be the year of walking away from underwater mortgages; there’s no sign of the private sector releveraging; and the government has clearly reached its limit in terms of the degree it can step in and borrow on behalf of the rest of us. If the attempt to prop up the still-overvalued housing market fails and there’s another downwards lurch, there will be a whole new wave of bank insolvencies and much less fiscal space to bail them out than there was pre-crisis. And the fact that most delegates here at Davos seem blissfully unconcerned about the possibility of a second nasty lurch downwards doesn’t reassure me in the slightest.

6. The double dip – New home sales in the United States unexpectedly fell 7.6% in December, Bloomberg reported. This is what happens when the government withdraws the stimulus of tax credits. Deleveraging happens. 2010 is the year of deleveraging and the double dip, I reckon.

“It’s going to be a long slog for housing,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., a New York forecasting firm. “We will see a decline in home prices and there is still a lot of shadow inventory out there that we need to get through.”

Federal Reserve policy makers today retained a pledge to phase out programs aimed at keeping mortgage rates low, bringing an end to another form of government help.

The end of the $1.25 trillion program of mortgage-debt purchases by the central bank on March 31 raises the risk that borrowing costs will jump. The plan helped send the rate on a 30-year fixed loan down to 4.71 percent in early December, the lowest level in Freddie Mac data going back to 1972.

The Fed “will probably stop the purchases and see how things go,” said Shapiro. “If rates shoot up, then they will probably be back in the game.”

He wishes. Hmmm. What if they don’t or can’t?

7. Banker with balls – The governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, supports Barack Obama’s plans to break up the ‘Too Big to Fail’ banks and moves to restrict their risky activities, the New York Times reports.

At a hearing before a parliamentary treasury committee on Tuesday, Mr. King used some of his strongest language yet to support such a separation. In the process, he hailed Mr. Obama for having moved so quickly.

“The U.S. has been more open in moving to a safer banking system than we are,” he said. “After you ring-fence retail deposits, the statement that no one else gets bailed out becomes credible.”

To illustrate his point that increased regulation and higher capital requirements alone would not be sufficient to forestall another banking crisis, he pointed to Citigroup — which once was seen as a model for combining all banking functions under one roof.

“You had regulators in the building and four of the most respected people in the world running the bank,” he said, citing its architect, Sanford I. Weill; the former Treasury secretary Robert E. Rubin; the former International Monetary Fund official Stanley Fischer; and a veteran international banker, William Rhodes.

“They did not set out to destroy Citibank, but when you have a large complicated institution, things happen,” he said. “That is the argument for trying to create firewalls.”

8. A Hayek vs Keynes rap video – That’s all you need to know. There are blond groupies and a limo. And some very bad fake moustaches. “In the long run we’re all dead”. Instant classic. Compulsory for all economics students.

9. Another joke – How many quants does it take to screw in a lightbulb? (Quants are traders who use mathematical formulas and often use ‘nano-trading’ programmes to make money) HT NakedCapitalism

Using ten racks of co-located blade servers, one quant can detect a janitorial inefficiency, step in between janitor and light fixture, and screw in 49,500 bulbs in less than a millisecond, keeping five hundred lightbulbs of profit.

Two quants competing with each other can screw in 99,998 bulbs in a millisecond, with each quant retaining a profit of one lightbulb.

When ten quant firms try to screw in a light bulb, the bulb explodes, the light fixture gets ripped from the ceiling, the building falls down, the entire electrical grid of the city of Greenwich shuts down, innocent civilians all over the world have their retirement accounts electrocuted, and the Federal Reserve has to give the counterparties of each quant firm five hundred million light bulbs to maintain the stability of the system.

Afterward, each of the ten quant firms subjects its strategies to a probing and relentless critique, hires fifteen additional Ph.D.’s from MIT, Cal Tech, Harvard, and the Indian Institutes of Technology, buys four new supercomputers, and searches for new arbitrage techniques and algorithms. Independently of each other, each of the ten firms develops the same brilliant and innovative strategy of “Knock knock, who’s there?” arbitrage.

10. Totally irrelevant video – Philippino prisoners dance a Michael Jackson song in tandem. Some people have way too much time on their hands.

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10 Responses to “Top 10 at 10: De-leveraging is inescapable; Spanish threat to euro; Banker with cohones; Dilbert”

  1. Matt S Says:

    Here’s a good read:

    How Cows (Grass-Fed Only) Could Save the Planet

    “So how can Coleman and Damrosch believe that adding livestock to their farm will help the planet? Cattleman Ridge Shinn has the answer. On a wintry Saturday at his farm in Hardwick, Mass., he is out in his pastures encouraging a herd of plump Devon cows to move to a grassy new paddock. Over the course of a year, his 100 cattle will rotate across 175 acres four or five times. “Conventional cattle raising is like mining,” he says. “It’s unsustainable, because you’re just taking without putting anything back. But when you rotate cattle on grass, you change the equation. You put back more than you take.”

  2. Trev Says:

    #2 – “No one expects the Spanish Inquisition”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHGOl-jfUK0

  3. Roger Thompson Says:

    Sorry Bernard : Run that past me again ; you are a tad hectic on a day that Alan Bollard does ………….ummmm , flap his gums , leave the OCR where it is … … NOTHING !

    [ where's me old chum SORE LOSER , when you need him to put on the caps-lock and have a rant ! ]

    Should’ve stayed in the office , focused on the business at hand , and contemplated gift-packs of gummy-bears for your more annoying visitors ………Ahemmmm !

  4. Wally Says:

    Bugger the sheep, they can dag themselves. I hear tell a vineyard marketed for 3 million in Marlborough sold for 800K because a bank said “sell”. No names but it’s from the horses front end.

  5. Roger Thompson Says:

    Fecking Big Teeth Stinky Grassy Breath Vineyard ??? …….Never thought they’d sell that one . …….. . Maybe to one of the Neighbours !

  6. steven Says:

    @Wally: That doesnt surprise me.

    regards

  7. steven Says:

    More quality reporting from stuff…(yeah right)……..

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/3272656/Cash-rate-stays-put-but-it-won-t-last

    9% by/in 2012…1.5% per year….possible. Yet all the negative data across the world says at best stagnation for 2 years and 20 is possible, so why do we keep seeing IR is going up without comments on the risk of deflation. In the past I would see most contries bouncing back…..positive data rasing this, rising that….instead I see desperate situations (Greece, Japan) or negative data or data that suggests things are being put off until tomorrow hoping the problems get absorbed into a recovery swing……so seems to me on balance it says not…once we have a real recovery, OK….are we stuck with no one wanting to say this is tough because the fear is it will self-fulfill?

    Hmmm….mind you of course the suggestion is prepare for interest rate rises….which is telling ppl not to spend….weakening the “recovery” still further…

    Cash….Cash…..Cash…..lovely cash nice and liquid…..the great lesson from the Great Depression was those with capital could buy assets at a fraction of their former worth from destressed sellers….and sell into a deflated market and still make a profit because the margin is still there….and ppl with jobs did OK….

    I wonder who should really fear a depression?….for astute businessmen and women, those with jobs, those with savings, their money becomes worth more…..it goes further…up until now with low interest rates ppl with “some” money have been dis-advantaged….

    In a dflation cycle those with high debt the real interest rate becomes significantly worse and guess what many voters are now in this place….if no one is spending or borrowing Banks have less business….

    So maybe the ppl with the most to fear about a depression are really the Bankers and the Pollies….two groups we care the least about….so why listen to them?

    regards

  8. Wally Says:

    Seems the rural agent involved wanted it kept a secret….wonder why! The fear down here is that the late spring and cold summer will end with an early autumn and frosts that will destroy the fruit. That’s on top of grape prices being down to $1250 a ton so I’m told and contracts that take only low tonnage per acre, leading to very very low margins for growers…and the battle to stop the marketing of cardboard plonk to clear the surplus…and the massive debt burden by those last to chase the golden profits from wine…and the thieving Council wanting to ‘milk’ the growers….
    No wonder then that somebody is advertising a service to tear out the vineyard posts and wires so the banks that own the land can grow grass and fatten lambs.
    Anyone wanna buy a vineyard…?????

  9. Wally Says:

    And a look at the Auckland council scum that Cullen and Clark rushed to cuddle in a strategic embrace in 08…..
    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/airport-invasions-acceptable-other-side-117712

  10. SORE-LOSER Says:

    Roger,

    I could not possibly comment….or could I.

    I have been taking stock…and planning my next year. First a trip around NZ to see the real story for myself. An investment is something you make money on, not lose it….so a bit of due diligence is warranted. (ME-THINKS).

    Not something we are good at in dear old NZ…..THINKING..nor DUE DILIGENCE……..you can BANK on that.

    Perhaps we should follow in the USA’s footsteps…or even the UK, or Iceland, or…Greece…..or is that GREASE. A slippery slope, one and all.

    Then a trip to Europe for the WINTER to escape these idiots here and do a little more research.

    Pity the ivory towered mob didn’t take a WORKING HOLIDAY to do the same planning I have to undertake.

    Hawaii is nice, but do we not have URGENT needs to be addressed here…

    DO WE NOT?????.

    XT..Mobile….but dead…..Auckland Power….did someone shout FIRE….is that why they took his GUNS away…., and the biggest story this week…..dogs…(Pity no one makes as much fuss about the poor CHILDREN mauled daily)….Greens leaving the sinking ship…..Goff sounding OFF….pity him and HELL-en and Cull-em, did not set up NZ for the NEXT 9 years, before they lost POWER…. (Bit like Auckland that).

    Pity our illustrious leaders have no such plan to improve our LOT…..but they did get a long HOLIDAY….at our expense as USUAL. (Loves…labours…LOST…nationally)

    Pity they are not spending their money…but yours….in this gamble with your money and future.

    The WHINE sellers are no different to the johnny cum lately corporate Cow-cockies.

    Over leveraged to buy a shrinking asset. No wonder holt is bolting. No wonder Crafar is done for.

    Still I am sure they can all BORROW their way out of the MIRE.

    Bollards, is just one of the many looking for another nice quant to cosy up too. (Nice yoke Bernard).

    Pity…no matter what Bollards do, it will never fix the problem, he helped cause, due to his urges.

    Once a quant …always a quant.

    The man should have been called Richard….but I digress.

    Capital…my first port of call.

    Rant….more of a whimper.

    We are doomed with these ineffectual dolts all theorising their way out of this mess….

    Actions speak louder than words…..and I do not see much of EITHER.

    Half working…Half NOT…as usual….all CHANGE…no CHANGE….

    Take another holiday….(at your expense)……we could all use the BREAK.

    PS…give your selves a pay cut…..too…..and maybe the MINIMUM WAGE could be DOUBLED.

    Now that would be SOCIAL WELFARE…..working..

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