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Auckland’s largest real estate agency, Barfoot and Thompson, said its average sale price in January was NZ$505,301, down 8.6% from December, but up 0.5% from January 2009. Sales traditionally fell away over the holiday period to 583. This was down from 648 in December, but up 13.2% from a year ago, Barfoots said. (Update 1 includes full release.)

Here is the full release from Barfoot and Thompson:

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Bayleys Real Estate managing director Mike Bayley said he expects the residential property market will undergo a small “if somewhat unspectacular” recovery over 2010.

(W)hile the New Zealand economy would continue to return to health throughout 2010, house price value increases would be small, Bayley said. “And that would be good for the whole economy – by avoiding a ‘boom/bust’ cycle.”

Here is the full release from Bayleys:

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Bernard Hickey delivers another housing report in association with BNZ, including new REINZ figures showing the raw median house price rose to a record NZ$360,000 in December from NZ$355,000 in November.

This median is up 9.6% from a year ago, but is the market really that strong? The REINZ’s stratified measure of house prices shows that prices fell 0.9% in December and are still 3.8% below their peak.

More pricey sales going through at the top end are skewing that raw figure upwards. About 42% of the sales in December were above NZ$400,000, while near the peak of the boom that number was closer to 35%. That suggests many of the deals are being done by existing home owners with plenty of equity who are borrowing less. That matches with the low growth in lending by banks.

Section prices also remain weak, suggesting the speculative fervor is not there. They fell 3.8% in December and remain 18% below their peak in the stratified measure.

The national median house price rose to a record of NZ$360,000 in December, up 1.4% from November and 9.6% from the year before, figures released by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) show. However, a new REINZ house price index designed with help from the Reserve Bank shows nationwide house prices fell 0.9% in December.

(Update 3 includes comment from ASB economist Chris Tennent-Brown about subdued market activity and what it might mean for the Official Cash Rate)

There were 4,957 house sales in December, down from 6,056 in November, but up from 4,302 in December 2008.

“It is concerning there was less than 5,000 residential properties sold in December, but the sale time of 33 days is one of the shortest for the year, which goes to show those properties sold were well sought after,” REINZ president Peter McDonald said.

“House prices have definitely stabilised and appear to be slightly gaining, which is a positive sign. The median house price for December 2009 was up 1.4% on the previous month so, while the median price for December 2009 was a record high for that time of the year, it’s a case of steady as it goes,” McDonald said.

In an interview with interest.co.nz, McDonald said he thought the fall in sales was due to a lack of quality stock rather than buyers holding off.
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Government valuation agency QV is picking activity in the housing market will lift during the first few months of 2010 as owners who held off selling in 2009 decide to enter the market. An increase in sellers tempted in by higher prices should then see a leveling off in values, QV said.

The forecast comes as QV’s latest market report shows nationwide house values increased further in December to 4.9% below their 2007 peak, from 5.9% below in November. It also follows figures from Auckland’s largest real estate agency, Barfoot & Thompson, which showed its average sale price hit a two year high in December.

The main centres led the way for improving house values over 2009, with urban values rising 6.5% from their April low to sit just 3.9% below the 2007 peak, QV said. Lagging behind were provincial values, up 3.2% from their low and still 7.7% from their peak, and rural values, up 1.3% in a late rally to sit 6.5% below their peak.

“We expect that sales activity will lift in the first few months of 2010 as owners who held off in 2009 decide to move,” QV Valuation Manager Glenda Whitehead said.

“If the increase in values in the main centres is being driven by a lack of properties for sale, (then) an increase in sellers tempted to the market by the improved prices should see a levelling off in values. However, there still remains debate about whether the current listing shortage is actually driving up values or rather there is actually an underlying shortage of houses in the main centres – that debate will no doubt continue,” Whitehead said.

Here is the full release from QV:

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Auckland’s largest real estate firm, Barfoot & Thompson, said activity in December was “exceptional” as its average sale price continued to rise, hitting a 24 month high of NZ$552,933 (up 0.5% from November). Sales saw their usual fall from November, from 862 to 648 in December, but were higher than December sales in 2008 and 2007, Managing Director Peter Thompson said.

Barfoots had 965 new listings during December, the highest December month in two years, although at the start of January it “only” had 5,431 properties on its books, the lowest for a January in two years, Thompson said. (Update 1 includes chart.)

Thompson said he expected to see the traditional pattern of prices falling away a little in January, but that they would then firm for the remainder of the warmer months.
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