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Why are NZ banks cutting mortgage rates as Aussie banks hike them, and how long might this last?

Banking
Why are NZ banks cutting mortgage rates as Aussie banks hike them, and how long might this last?

Whilst New Zealand banks are cutting mortgage rates their Australian parents are increasing them. What are the reasons for this discrepancy and how long might it last?

Local banks were at it again on Friday with cuts to advertised home loan interest rates from ASB, BNZ and Westpac. This was just three days after ANZ and TSB made cuts. The two-year fixed rate, still the most popular among Kiwi borrowers, has been trending down this year as demonstrated by the chart below.

However in Australia the story's very different. ASB's parent Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ANZ and Westpac all recently hiked their variable, or floating, mortgages rates, which are more popular among Aussie borrowers than fixed-term rates. The outlier was BNZ's parent National Australia Bank, which left its standard variable rate unchanged at 5.24% in a move seen as trying to buy back public trust after a bruising time at the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry.

CBA's hiking variable rates by 15 basis points from October 4, ANZ's hiking variable rates by 16 basis points from September 27, and Westpac's hiking variable rates by 14 basis points from September 19.

So why the divergence between the ANZAC neighbours?

Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr points out it has happened before with Australian interest rates doing their own thing during the mining boom, and New Zealand's doing the same after the Christchurch earthquakes, for example.

"So we don't move lockstep with one another. [But] we do generally follow each others cycles over a longer timeframe," says Kerr.

He notes Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe is an "open cheerleader" for the Australian economy, going as far as saying he's trying to counter negativity in the media.

"So you have a much more assertive profile priced into the Australian interest rate curve for starters, but then you've also got some different pressures on bank funding in Australia relative to New Zealand so if you look at bank bill rates in Australia relative to the cash rate they're much wider," says Kerr.

"So the bank bill rate in Australia is actually higher than in New Zealand and we have a cash rate which is 25 basis points higher. So the spread difference between a bank bill rate and a cash rate in Australia is much wider than what it is here in New Zealand."

Australia's cash rate is currently 1.50%, 25 basis points below the NZ Official Cash Rate, but is expected to start rising before its NZ counterpart.

In contrast to Lowe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr is a more "activist type" governor, Kerr says. Orr has looked at the outcomes NZ's had and said 'what can I do to ensure we get better growth and inflation," Kerr suggests.

"And he [Kerr] has come out and whacked financial markets the other way. He has given us downside risks outweighing upside risks. He has effectively hit the interest rate curve and he has smacked the currency as well."

"I prefer his [Orr's] approach. I like the fact that he has come out and said 'look we're not generating the growth and inflation and the risks to that growth and inflation over the next couple of years have deteriorated so I'm going to do what I can now to try and fuel that.' So if you look at our interest rate curve it's below Australia's and we've got cuts priced in here where there are some hikes priced into Australia," says Kerr.

"Since the August MPS [Monetary Policy Statement] Adrian Orr has lowered the swap rate, which has enabled banks to offer a better fixed rate mortgage here, which is what you're seeing and obviously now's the time to do it going into Spring."

Three key drivers of mortgage rates

Christian Hawkesby, executive director and head of fixed income at Harbour Asset Management, sees three key drivers of mortgage rates. Firstly, the likely path of the OCR or cash rate which provides the base wholesale rate and expectations of what's ahead. Secondly, what funding conditions are like for banks, how easy are they finding it to get funding and is that different between NZ and Australia? And thirdly, the competitive landscape in the two countries, how's that changing and where it fits in.

"In the current situation we're in we've got an environment where the RBA has been on hold for a long time, is on hold for probably a wee while yet, but is only talking about putting rates up from there. So from your wholesale market point of view that's stopping those wholesale base rates falling any further because the Aussie economy looks pretty good, activity is quite strong, they're just waiting for some inflation and wage pressure to come through and then they'll be lifting the official cash rate," says Hawkesby.

"Whereas locally we've obviously had a new governor come into place and shake things up a bit, increase the prospect that actually the Reserve Bank here cuts rates and cuts rates materially if they do go down that path. And so you've seen two year out to five year swap rates fall quite materially since then."

In terms of the funding picture Hawkesby suggests the Royal Commission in Australia appears to be creating some funding pressure.

With uncertainties in the world such as the US-China trade war and Brexit, Kerr says Orr's doing what he can to make sure financial conditions in the NZ economy are as loose as they can be without him actually cutting the OCR.

"I think that's the right approach. How long will we differ from Australia? I think it persists for a while. I don't see any need for us to get excited and start thinking about hiking rates anytime soon, and I certainly hope we're not in a position where we're forced to cut rates," says Kerr.

"If we're in a position where we're forced to cut rates, the Aussies are cutting as well. So it's more around when we start hiking and at this point if everything goes according to plan, the RBA will probably lift off before the RBNZ. That's great because they'll keep our currency versus theirs a little bit weaker which helps our manufacturing and other export sectors."

Hawkesby says the pricing of credit is not cheap at the moment.

"It just means that if you do get some pressure coming through you could see credit margins widen, or funding spreads widen, quite materially because they start from a reasonably low base," says Hawkesby.

"[So] there's not that much scope for credit margins to contract materially because of the levels they sit at. But if you did have some of these pressures come through, they could widen and that's a risk to the banks when they think about funding their activities." 

The chart below comes from Kiwibank.

*This article was first published in our email for paying subscribers early on Monday morning. See here for more details and how to subscribe.

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17 Comments

Could you expand on this Bank Bill - OIS spread? Is the Bank Bill in this context for a certain term e.g. 90 days? Why doesn't it just mirror the cash rate?

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Seconded

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Sydney Mortgage = 1.2 million
Auckland Mortgage only 800k

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That's not entirely correct. But both nations do have an average mortgage debt of $400,000 of their respective dollars

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The Australian Banks are going to have to pay millions (billions?) in fines and penalties as a result of the Royal Commission. It makes sense that they are getting out ahead of the hit to the balance sheet by raising as much as they can now. And as always, it's not the Banks that pay for their misdemeanours....it's their customers.

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Thankfully our populous are blissfully unaware of whether we have had shoddy lending practices and malpractice because a public investigation was deemed unnecessary over here.

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@bw. So banks in Aussie are raising rates to raise cash to pay fines ? Probably not. They have always jacked rates up as much as it would bear, to extract the cash from us anyway.

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Thanks Gareth for a great article which, in my opinion, goes to the core of Interest.co.nz

I would be most interested in a piece discussing the potential repercussions on NZ banks form the Royal Commission inquiry into the OZ banks.

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Thanks for the feedback Yvil. In terms of repercussions on NZ banks from the Aussie Royal Commission, the reduced borrowing capacity I highlighted here (https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/95808/capacity-home-loan-borrowers-borrow-has-dropped-about-20-over-past-couple-years) is part of that. The Royal Commission's imterim report is supposed to be out by the end of the month, although this may be delayed. And we're expecting to see a report from the FMA-RBNZ probe of NZ banks' culture & conduct in Oct-Nov. Once we've seen those (and any recommendations) we'll be better placed to ascertain what the impact on banks will be. Cheers.

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And we're expecting to see a report from the FMA-RBNZ probe of NZ banks' culture & conduct in Oct-Nov.

This will be interesting. A number of friends who work in banking have said a common feeling in a couple of the Aussie-owned banks is "We used to have our own culture, but now we're very much a branch of ___."

So I do wonder how else that may have filtered through from the Aussie parents.

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Aussie borrowers favourerd IO variable rate loans as the interst rates were lower than fixed. Now the banks as fallout from the royal commision are being forced to curb IO lending. So they are encouraging through lower rates. Qualified customers to take P&I fixed rate deals at lower rates 3.75% for 2 years seems common offer at the moment. Banks are fighting for quality loans with good LVR %. Those with poor equity positions or unable to pass the new affordability tests are trapped with their existing banks and forced to pay whatever their bank is asking. Expect that the banks really want to force those people to sell up so they can get rid of the problems they created through poor lending standards. But it is a delicate balancing act for everyone concerned.

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The banks in Australia are foreclosing on loans discretely. Not sure how prevalent this is.

https://youtu.be/BbFvwYVfwq0?t=4m35s

Here is an anecdotal story - https://twitter.com/thechartist/status/1036130716621230080

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The banks did not want to know the borrowers true expenses or bother to stress test for an interest rate rise or P&I payments. They counted on prices continuing to rise like they always have and the borrower would have the equity to refinance when the IO period expired. Now borrowers are being forced into P&I payments that they can't service. They have a few weeks or months to sell before they go into arrears. They know that and the banks know as well. Probably what they are calling discrete foreclosure. Equity that they had on paper will be wiped out as they are selling at the same time as too many others in the same boat. Probably a quite similar situation here. But we have a 3 monkeys attitude.

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Expecting some big changes in the next few months, banks currently in stealth mode, nothing to panic about here folks ! hint: better get your affairs in order and get the landing gear up before the wheels fall off.

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I think you're right Carlos67

The RBNZ's breakdowns on mortgage lending, particularly the percentage of interest only as a proportion of the market will be the thing to watch in the next 12 months and whether the Aussie banks tighten up here too. Remembering that along with the foreign buyer the interest only borrower (as they are now seeing in Australia) is essentially another marginal buyer - able to service 700k of debt for the same cost at 547k of repayment loan at 5% over 30 years. Or an inflated price offer 22% over the owner occupier.

Things do appear to be getting interesting this Spring.

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Also you've got less money being borrowed from the bank of mum and dad for additional deposit top ups where the buyer's own deposits are insufficient.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/107143385/policies-restrict-access-to-…

As well as 20% less in borrowing power due to tightened credit criteria by the banks ...

This is before any recession where there are likely to be job losses (and remember that most households have two incomes to service a mortgage at current property price levels in Auckland, so what happens when one person loses their job??)

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This article, and the other recent one explaining lower borrowing power, were excellent.

Great stuff thank you, very informative.

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