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RBNZ holds OCR, but increases forecast interest rate track 50 bps; says LVR limit equal to 30 bps of hikes

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RBNZ holds OCR, but increases forecast interest rate track 50 bps; says LVR limit equal to 30 bps of hikes

By Bernard Hickey

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has held the Official Cash Rate as expected at 2.5%, but has increased its forecast track for interest rates by around 50 basis points as it sees inflation pressures building from the Canterbury recovery and the Auckland house price surge.

It now sees short term interest rates rising around 200 basis points to 4.7% through the two years from mid 2014.

This would imply floating mortgage rates rise to around 7.5% by early 2016 and suggests interest rates would rise around 100 basis points by the end of 2014 as next election approaches.

The central bank warned again that house price and construction cost inflation could spill over into wider inflation pressures and it was likely to increase the OCR next year. Its forecasts for the 90 day bill rate suggest it has bought forward its first expected rate hike from the September quarter of 2014 to the June quarter.

This remains less hawkish than market expectations for the first hike being in the March quarter of 2014 and for rate hikes over the next 3 years of 200 to 300 basis points.

However, markets viewed the statement as slightly more 'hawkish' on interest rates and pushed the New Zealand dollar up by more than half a cent to near a one-month high of 81.4 USc. The two year wholesale swap rate rose 2 basis points to 3.52%.

The bank also estimated that the limits on high Loan to Value Ratio (LVR) lending it is imposing from October 1 were 'worth' around 30 basis points of interest rate increases. This implies the Reserve Bank would have increased its forecast track by around 80 basis points with a peak closer to 5% by early 2016 than the 4.7% currently forecast.

What the Reserve Bank said today compared with last time

Here is a section- by- section parsing of the Reserve Bank's statement today in comparison with its last statement on July 25 to see how its view has changed. The July 25 comments are indented.

September 12 - The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5 percent. Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said: “The global outlook remains mixed. GDP growth in Australia and China has slowed and some emerging market currencies have come under considerable downward pressure. At the same time, the major developed economies continue to recover and New Zealand’s export commodity prices remain very high.

“Although long-term interest rates have risen globally in recent months, largely due to uncertainty around the timing of the Federal Reserve’s exit from quantitative easing, global financial conditions overall continue to be very accommodating.

July 25 - The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5 percent. Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said: “The global outlook remains mixed, with the euro area still in recession and signs of slower growth in China and Australia, but more positive recent indicators in the United States and Japan. Global debt markets have become more cautious due to uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s anticipated exit from quantitative easing. The key difference is the comment about New Zealand's commodity export prices remaining very high. The bank also chose to point out global financial conditions were very accommodating, referring later in the monetary policy statement to how bank funding costs on wholesale markets were relatively low.

September 12 - “In New Zealand, GDP is estimated to have increased by 3 percent in the year to the September quarter. Consumption is rising and reconstruction in Canterbury will be reinforced by a broader national recovery in construction activity, particularly in Auckland. This will support aggregate activity and start to ease the housing shortage.

July 25 - “Growth in the New Zealand economy is picking up and, although uneven, is becoming more widespread across sectors. Consumption is increasing and reconstruction in Canterbury will be reinforced by a broader national recovery in construction activity, particularly in Auckland. This will support aggregate activity and eventually help to ease the housing shortage. The main change is the Reserve Bank has lifted its forecast for GDP growth.

Sept 12 - “In the meantime rapid house price inflation persists in Auckland and Canterbury. As has been noted for some time, the Reserve Bank does not want to see financial or price stability compromised by continued high house price inflation. Restrictions on high loan-to-value residential mortgage lending, which will come into effect next month, are expected to help slow the national housing market.

July 25 - “In the meantime rapid house price inflation persists in Auckland and Canterbury. As previously noted, the Reserve Bank does not want to see financial or price stability compromised by housing demand getting too far ahead of the supply response. The main difference is the Reserve Bank mentioned its high LVR speed limit and later in the statement estimated it was worth around 30 basis points worth of 'non-increases' in short term interest rates.

Sept 12 - “Despite having fallen on a trade-weighted basis since May 2013, the exchange rate remains high. A lower rate would reduce head winds for the tradables sector and support export industries. Fiscal consolidation will weigh on aggregate demand over the projection horizon.

July 25 - “Despite having fallen on a trade-weighted basis since May 2013, the New Zealand dollar remains high and continues to be a head wind for the tradables sector, restricting export earnings and encouraging demand for imports. Fiscal consolidation will weigh on aggregate demand over the projection horizon. No real change in this section, although later in the statement it does say the exchange rate is "very high" rather than just high.

Sept 12 - “CPI inflation has been very low over the past year, partly reflecting the high New Zealand dollar and strong international and domestic competition. However, inflation is expected to rise towards the mid-point of the 1 to 3 percent target band as growth strengthens over the coming year.

July 25 - “CPI inflation has been very low over the past year, reflecting the high New Zealand dollar and strong international and domestic competition. However, inflation is expected to trend upwards towards the mid-point of the 1-3 percent target band as growth accelerates over the coming year. No real change here.

Sept 12 - “OCR increases will likely be required next year. The extent and timing of the rise in policy rates will depend largely on the degree to which the momentum in the housing market and construction sector spills over into broader demand and inflation pressures. We expect to keep the OCR unchanged in 2013.

July 25 statement - “The extent of the monetary policy response will depend largely on the degree to which the growing momentum in the housing market and construction sector spills over into inflation pressures. Although removal of monetary stimulus will likely be needed in the future, we expect to keep the OCR unchanged through the end of the year.” The Reserve Bank kept its guidance on there being no OCR hike in 2013. It's major addition is the line about OCR increases 'likely to be required next year."

Economist reaction:

Westpac's economists said the Reserve Bank's new stance was more realistic.

"We have long argued that rising house prices and a construction boom would eventually provoke inflation pressures and would require a substantial OCR hiking cycle, similar to the experience of past decades. It is right for the central bank to warn markets and the populace at large that a period of higher interest rates is coming," they said.

"Indeed, moving early in this manner may limit the eventual extent of OCR hikes that are required - the anticipation of future OCR hikes has caused markets to push fixed mortgage rates up, which will slow the housing market earlier than OCR hikes on their own could have."

ASB Economist Nick Tuffley said the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Statement was more hawkish than expected "with the economic impact of the LVR restrictions not sufficient to offset the added inflation pressures from other parts of the economy."

"We had expected the 2 factors to broadly offset each other, giving the RBNZ scope to leave its 90-day interest rate track broadly unchanged," Tuffley said. 

"We continue to expect the RBNZ to keep the OCR on hold until March 2014, gradually lifting the OCR to 4% by late 2015.  Prior to the statement, we had said the risks to our outlook would have been to an earlier or a greater extent of OCR increases.  In the wake of this statement the risks to our view remain skewed that way, though we expect the RBNZ will want to give the LVR restrictions some time for their impact to become better known," he said.

HSBC Economist Paul Bloxham said the Reserve Bank faced a strengthening domestic economy and a lower New Zealand dollar was unlikely to keep dampening inflation as much as in the past.

"As such, the RBNZ’s next move is likely to be up, and the central bank may need to lift rates around year end. The question is: when? Our central case remains that the RBNZ lifts rates in Q4 this year, though clearly the risk is for an early 2014 move, given the RBNZ’s own commentary," Bloxham said.

(Updated with NZ$ reaction, Westpac reaction, ASB reaction, HSBC reaction)

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30 Comments

So rates up in a year or two Mr Wheeler.  Unfortunate for all those who have fixed and at the end of those, walk straight into an interest rate nightmare.

So many people mortgage slaves, with limited living conditions, and such little capacity to reduce that debt at all.   It's the treadmill for the rest of their lives.  All so inevitable.

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Not necessarily KH, the fat lady has yet to sing - I believe 17-18 September is a pencilled in date. Nonetheless, it remains a case of watch what central bankers do, not what they say.

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I do not feel sorry for those from X and Y who want it now. Baby boomers bought humble little homes as their first homes and then bought the second and third home when they had made some headway with their debt.  X and Y just go to the third home with massive debt then complain when they have to cut back on life's neccessities. Us baby boomers have ruined our kids by giving them too much and they in turn want to live like we do and forget we did not always live like we do now.

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Rather a broad generalisation, whilst it's true about some young people, certainly not all.  And you should replace "gen X and Y" with young people, I'm sure that when baby boomers were young they made some bad choices. 

 

My parents are baby boomers and bought their first home for $5k, about 1 times the average household income at the time.  Young people these days need to find a lot more to buy a lot less.  Baby boomers also enjoyed record economic growth for decades and in many cases jobs for life. 

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And for those that do not feel sorry for the X and Ys, when the Baby Boomers bought there humble little first homes, the adult minimum wage was basically the same (if you inflation adjust it, the result is within 5%) as the current Living Wage campaign (see by many as a unrealistic target).

Baby Boomer's who can do the maths realise how much more fortunate they were in conditions than the later generations. Boomer's who can't do the maths think it is "young people these days"

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Yes BB's did in the main buy modest little homes in areas which weren't the "poshest" of suburbs becos that was all they cld afford and all the lenders would lend out on.  However, nothing much has changed in "wanting it all".  As a very young bride (19) in 1967 I remember an old lady (probably about my age now) saying to me "The problem with you young people is you want it all now!"  She then went on to tell me that it took around 15 years of struggling with a mortgage etc to get what you wanted in the way of furnishings, floor coverings etc.  which looking back was quite true. Now X & Y seem to be influenced by magazines, real estate websites with houses all poshed up and "staged" for selling and X & Y think that is how everything should be plus the McMansion to go with it. 

I still feel sorry for them though as I am sure that not everyone is influenced in that way and many are willing to make sacrifices.  All I can say to them is good luck and at some stage the market forces will come into play becos wages and the economy cannot keep up with the crazy prices that are in the housing market.  Who is earning the money to service these mortgages of enormous amounts.  People will just stop buying surely. 

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Some other back-in-the-day tales:

Back in the day it was possible to:

  • build your own house. Norm Kirk did just that.  Goneburger now, ya has ter be 15 different LBP's, use an engineer for anything fabricated, and get yer plans through a Byzantine TLA with strict revenue targets and their cross-hairs on yer capacious pocket..
  • buy a section for 5-20% of the total house plus land package.  Now it's lucky to be under 45-50%
  • climb a ladder to paint a second storey or fix a roof/clean a chimney/clear guttering.  Now it's Safety at Heights, yet another Credential (sitesafe), all manner of expensive scaff or a cherrypicker, certifiers for any DIY scaff, and of course traffic management and fencing.

Common taters can no doubt add their own tales...but the common factor is that ordinary people have been systematically and ruthlessly disempowered from Building - that most basic human activity.....

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Wheeler in the speech didn't really want to provide a more elaborate answer to

"what should the first home buyers do" with out going into a "fire and brimstone" prepared speech.  It seemed a well rehearsed snippet.

What he said was almost ominous in tone – and perhaps protecting them ?

Anybody got any ideas on what a first homey should do  ?

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Depends on your situation, age, kids, occupation, income, risk appetite....

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Serious Saver...you're at a loss as to what to do, like many others....today's world is so much more about appearances and giving the perception that you are "making it"...you know... choice of phone, car, clothes, furniture...house, right suburb, school zone etc.

It's an age-old phenomenon gone viral in all societies via globalized media access...we're more easily and subtlely influenced than ever before...it's powerful stuff really.... mind frazzling and difficult to counter much of the time.

I'm a late Boomer and though such influences were around if you want something in life you have to make it happen...and this could mean having to say F*** IT ....I don't care if the kids might not go to Epsom or Auckland Grammar...they'll still get a good education and make their way through life as their oppoortunities are stil vast and ahead of them.

You have to live for now guys. F*** the social snobbery and find yourself a nice affordable house that suits your budget in an "okay" area. As long as you don't see any needles and condoms on the pavement and bottles strewn around the park it should be all good.

Just get on the ladder mate...you can climb it later and you never know, by the time the kids are age ready they might still end up at a "better" college.....Or young Matthew might say "Dad, I don't want to go to Uni...have you seen what builders are earning these days?!"

All the best.

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FYI updated with NZ$ reaction

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The Reserve Bank does not have any obligation to answer to first home buyers. As far as they are concerned high LVR lending creates imbalances in terms of risk to the economy. It's simply a coincedence that a large portion of high LVR borrowers also happen to be first home buyers. The RBNZ is simply doing it's job and has no obligation in it's mandate to give special treatment to first home buyers.   

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FYI Updated with Westpac reaction. They like the more 'realistic' (ie higher interest rate outlook) stance.

cheers

Bernard

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"Our youth now love luxury. They have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for their elders and love chatter in place of exercise; they no longer rise when elders enter the room; they contradict their parents, chatter before company; gobble up their food and tyrannize their teachers.”

- Socrates (as transcribed by Plato). 

 

Quite frankly, as someone on the Gen X/Y border, I get sick to death of hearing the holier-than-thou inanities of the BB generation and others here.

 

You're not special. You don't know everything and, as much as it comforts you to think you do, you don't have a clue why we choose to do (or buy) the things we do.

 

You're not leaving the world in a better state than you found it, either.

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You said it mate!

HEAR HEAR!

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Phil, I wish I could find something in what you're saying to argue with - I humbly say that I can't.

I love the historical context too...perhaps the first recorded signs of the bitching generation gap!

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Phil you are right about not leaving the world in a better place than we found it as we bred your generation who have stuffed it up with your lack of work ethics, lack of savings ability and lack of general manners. You want it now and look what it caused. The GFC for a start.

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Erm, to continue your use of generalisation, which generation was at the steering wheel over-seeing the GFC?

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@hamish.  exactly!

 

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I'm going to be a boring pendant for a moment and point out that the Socrates/ Plato quote is a summary of the Socrates/ Plato line of argument by a scholar called Freeman in the early 1900's.

For a direct dated quote there is Horace, 20 B.C. "Our sires' age was worse than our grandsires'. We, their sons, are more worthless than they; so in our turn we shall give the world a progeny yet more corrupt.

Going the approximately dated route, there is a popular Sumerian story (found on a bunch of tablets) called "A Scribe and His Perverse Son," from about 3700 years ago 

http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/childrens_literature/v014/14.adams_img03.html

"They multiplied barley for their father, maintained him in barley, oil, and wool. But you, you're a man when it comes to perverseness, but compared to them you are not a man at all. You certainly don't labor like them—they are the sons of fathers who make their sons labor, but me—I didn't make you work like them." (it goes on quite a bit in that style)

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ex agent .. really? ex agent ... blaming the generation you bred? You have some other issues that are oozing out there mate - take a breath before you post and perhaps even read it before you hit the "save" button.

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I can still remember some of Ex agent's famous postings; hundred of vacant properties in the Waikato, house price will crash and burn, the rise of Apple shares, Auckland prices will slump... yeah right!

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chairman moa we all know everyone talks shit on this site and revs everyone else up. One truth in my life ,retired well before I reached 60 and very comfortable from accumulation of shares in private and public companies. No tenants and just dividends to spend.

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You're right... I've sold my house in Auckland last year, got 14% increase per year.  Buyer didn't use kiwisaver and they weren't from far east.  I ran into them few weeks back and they are thinking of selling, they would have made another 150K in todays' market .  A friend bought and sold in carterton and made a bundle as well.  So all are well...

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Here's one from ex agent from about 2 years ago:

 

"There can be no doubt in anyones mind unless they are stupid or so one eyed that property is on the verge of a long abd consistant wind down values wise. Month by month values are going to drop and it could accelerate at any time"

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Is it " Pick on ex agent Day " or summit ?

 

... I prefer to kick the spit out of Bernard's prognostications ... call me old fashioned , but I'm loyal to my man , oh yeah ... only Bernard's forecasts get the full wrath & derision of the Gummster ..

 

That must give you a warm & toasty glow , Bernie , huh ?

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Happy 123 I think you will find my predictions are not too far out.  Auckland property has been saved by first home buyers using their kiwisaver ( dah  this should be long term investing) but they dont save today like the boomers did  and general shortage. Christchurch has been saved by a horrible earthquake causing shortage. Go just about anywhere else and it is hardly keeping up with inflation and in some areas is going backwards. Not a great investment really. Rising rates insurance maintenance bills and soon interest rates.

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... if there was a run on the NZ dollar ( as there has been recently on the Indian rupee ) , the Reserve bank would crank up interest rates to stabilise the situation ...

 

And as they did so , imagine the effect on mortgage interest rates , and subsequently on house prices ...

 

... our dollar did once collapse to near 40 cents against the greenback .... not so long ago , in fact ...

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If baby boomers helped cause the gfc they were just feeding the greed of x and y I think you will find.

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I've narrowed it down to the Baby Boomers & the Jones Generation (moi !) , plus a few of the Silent Generation , and some Gen X'rs themselves ....

 

... all the rotten buggers responsible for the GFC fall into this grouping ... yup ... anyone except Bernard himself would agree with that ...

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