Jason Wong
Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
14th Feb 24, 7:29am
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Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
13th Feb 24, 7:48am
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
12th Feb 24, 7:33am
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The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
9th Feb 24, 7:41am
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
7th Feb 24, 7:53am
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
5th Feb 24, 7:46am
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
2nd Feb 24, 7:50am
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US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
Markets in holding pattern but fully prices in April cut for ECB, dragging down European rates and EUR. Oil prices fall back after strong Asia open
30th Jan 24, 7:52am
Markets in holding pattern but fully prices in April cut for ECB, dragging down European rates and EUR. Oil prices fall back after strong Asia open
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing
29th Jan 24, 7:44am
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing
GDP up an annualised 3.3% in Q4, PCE deflator at 1.5% and core PCE deflator at 2%. US Treasury market supported by the benign inflation backdrop, yields slightly lower. European rates and EUR lower. NZD flat just over 61 USc
26th Jan 24, 8:34am
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GDP up an annualised 3.3% in Q4, PCE deflator at 1.5% and core PCE deflator at 2%. US Treasury market supported by the benign inflation backdrop, yields slightly lower. European rates and EUR lower. NZD flat just over 61 USc
US equities rise to fresh record high. China surprises with 50bps cut to RRR; Bank of Canada drops tightening bias; Global PMI data support the market. NZ inflation moderates
25th Jan 24, 8:11am
US equities rise to fresh record high. China surprises with 50bps cut to RRR; Bank of Canada drops tightening bias; Global PMI data support the market. NZ inflation moderates
US equities continue their record-breaking run, a contrast with the slump in Chinese equities. Global rates push lower, US 10-year rate down slightly. No change expected from the BoJ later today
23rd Jan 24, 7:48am
US equities continue their record-breaking run, a contrast with the slump in Chinese equities. Global rates push lower, US 10-year rate down slightly. No change expected from the BoJ later today
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
19th Jan 24, 7:48am
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
17th Jan 24, 7:47am
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
16th Jan 24, 7:54am
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
19th Dec 23, 7:51am
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
Weaker than expected US PPI, UK GDP and euro area industrial production data supports extended bond market rally. Domestic rates tumbled yesterday, some attributed to weaker pricing indicators
14th Dec 23, 7:52am
Weaker than expected US PPI, UK GDP and euro area industrial production data supports extended bond market rally. Domestic rates tumbled yesterday, some attributed to weaker pricing indicators
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
13th Dec 23, 7:57am
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
12th Dec 23, 7:45am
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency
7th Dec 23, 7:52am
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Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency
RBA leaves policy unchanged, keeps weak tightening bias, disappointing the hawks and sending their rates and AUD lower. ECB's Schnabel turns from hawkish to dovish, sending European rates much lower. Spillover effects on US Treasuries
6th Dec 23, 8:08am
RBA leaves policy unchanged, keeps weak tightening bias, disappointing the hawks and sending their rates and AUD lower. ECB's Schnabel turns from hawkish to dovish, sending European rates much lower. Spillover effects on US Treasuries
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
5th Dec 23, 7:54am
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
Wholesale interest rates have fallen since Wednesday when the RBNZ warned of another rate hike
1st Dec 23, 2:52pm
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Wholesale interest rates have fallen since Wednesday when the RBNZ warned of another rate hike
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
30th Nov 23, 7:53am
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
29th Nov 23, 7:56am
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear