Jason Wong
Risk sentiment soft again. Rates much lower across the UK, Europe, supporting lower US Treasury yields despite US housing starts unexpectedly surging 21.7% in May
21st Jun 23, 8:01am
Risk sentiment soft again. Rates much lower across the UK, Europe, supporting lower US Treasury yields despite US housing starts unexpectedly surging 21.7% in May
Negative market sentiment prevails over China; weaker yuan drags NZD and AUD lower; NZD goes sub-62 USc. European rates higher, more so for UK than Euro area; NZ-UK 10 year rate spread goes negative
20th Jun 23, 7:45am
Negative market sentiment prevails over China; weaker yuan drags NZD and AUD lower; NZD goes sub-62 USc. European rates higher, more so for UK than Euro area; NZ-UK 10 year rate spread goes negative
Soft US data support lower Treasury yields; plays to market disbelief of Fed's projection for more rate hikes. But US equities power on up. ECB hikes 25bps, revises up inflation forecasts, gives hawkish guidance; another hike in July "very likely"
16th Jun 23, 7:50am
Soft US data support lower Treasury yields; plays to market disbelief of Fed's projection for more rate hikes. But US equities power on up. ECB hikes 25bps, revises up inflation forecasts, gives hawkish guidance; another hike in July "very likely"
Fed pauses rate hike cycle as expected but projections show, surprisingly, two more hikes this year. US PPI data points to moderating inflation data. Treasuries curve flattens
15th Jun 23, 7:56am
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Fed pauses rate hike cycle as expected but projections show, surprisingly, two more hikes this year. US PPI data points to moderating inflation data. Treasuries curve flattens
US CPI figures broadly as expected; annual headline and core figures both clearly heading lower. Paves the way for Fed to skip hike tomorrow, but core not weak enough to quash chance of a future hike. Treasury yields higher across the curve
14th Jun 23, 7:55am
US CPI figures broadly as expected; annual headline and core figures both clearly heading lower. Paves the way for Fed to skip hike tomorrow, but core not weak enough to quash chance of a future hike. Treasury yields higher across the curve
US equities push higher, US Treasuries curve steepens a little. NZD down slightly, AUD up slightly, GBP underperforms
13th Jun 23, 7:52am
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US equities push higher, US Treasuries curve steepens a little. NZD down slightly, AUD up slightly, GBP underperforms
US initial jobless claims show a solid increase to 261,000, further confirmation of an easing in labour market pressures. This drove US Treasury yields and USD lower. Support for bonds also came from lower oil prices on reports of US-Iran nuclear talks
9th Jun 23, 7:58am
US initial jobless claims show a solid increase to 261,000, further confirmation of an easing in labour market pressures. This drove US Treasury yields and USD lower. Support for bonds also came from lower oil prices on reports of US-Iran nuclear talks
Bank of Canada surprises market with a 25bps hike, a move that spilled over into global rates and equity markets. US 10-year rate up 12bps for the day. Global forces lift NZ rates with more significant price action expected today
8th Jun 23, 8:08am
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Bank of Canada surprises market with a 25bps hike, a move that spilled over into global rates and equity markets. US 10-year rate up 12bps for the day. Global forces lift NZ rates with more significant price action expected today
NZD and AUD performance held back overnight by weak yuan on speculation of further policy easing to support China's economy. US Treasury rates flat to slightly higher. NZ rates play catch-up after long weekend
7th Jun 23, 7:56am
NZD and AUD performance held back overnight by weak yuan on speculation of further policy easing to support China's economy. US Treasury rates flat to slightly higher. NZ rates play catch-up after long weekend
Higher Caixin China PMI, lower Euro area inflation, soft ISM manufacturing report with lower prices paid, strong ADP employment with lower wage inflation, all deliver positive risk sentiment after US gets debt deal done
2nd Jun 23, 8:00am
Higher Caixin China PMI, lower Euro area inflation, soft ISM manufacturing report with lower prices paid, strong ADP employment with lower wage inflation, all deliver positive risk sentiment after US gets debt deal done
Mixed US JOLTS report, with more job openings but lower quits rate; Weak Chicago PMI. These forces drive US Treasury yields lower again. Softer than expected China PMI data weighs on the market
1st Jun 23, 8:08am
Mixed US JOLTS report, with more job openings but lower quits rate; Weak Chicago PMI. These forces drive US Treasury yields lower again. Softer than expected China PMI data weighs on the market
US Treasury yields down 9-11 bps following debt ceiling agreement. Weaker US consumer confidence and labour market data and soft Euro area CPI data support the move. Weaker commodity prices not helping NZD, oil down over 4%
31st May 23, 8:00am
US Treasury yields down 9-11 bps following debt ceiling agreement. Weaker US consumer confidence and labour market data and soft Euro area CPI data support the move. Weaker commodity prices not helping NZD, oil down over 4%
Small market movements following the weekend US debt ceiling agreement. US equity futures up 0.3%; Treasury futures little changed, AUD slightly higher
30th May 23, 8:06am
Small market movements following the weekend US debt ceiling agreement. US equity futures up 0.3%; Treasury futures little changed, AUD slightly higher
Global rates much higher as the market prices in additional tightening from the Fed, ECB and BoE. US 2-year rate up for the tenth day running. Mixed economic data; Germany officially in recession, US GDP revised slightly higher
26th May 23, 7:55am
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Global rates much higher as the market prices in additional tightening from the Fed, ECB and BoE. US 2-year rate up for the tenth day running. Mixed economic data; Germany officially in recession, US GDP revised slightly higher
Little progress on US debt ceiling negotiations. A number of China concerns in the spotlight, and a big upside miss for UK CPI inflation. AUD hits a fresh low for the year but NZD/AUD still down 1.3% to 93.3 AUc
25th May 23, 8:19am
Little progress on US debt ceiling negotiations. A number of China concerns in the spotlight, and a big upside miss for UK CPI inflation. AUD hits a fresh low for the year but NZD/AUD still down 1.3% to 93.3 AUc
Weaker risk appetite as unresolved debt ceiling negotiations hog the headlines. Equities lower, modest changes in Treasuries, USD broadly stronger; NZD and AUD underperform
24th May 23, 7:48am
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Weaker risk appetite as unresolved debt ceiling negotiations hog the headlines. Equities lower, modest changes in Treasuries, USD broadly stronger; NZD and AUD underperform
The two sides still far apart as the US debt X-date approaches. Modest market movements in a quiet start to the week; US Treasury yields push higher; US equities push higher. NZD tracks sideways
23rd May 23, 8:11am
The two sides still far apart as the US debt X-date approaches. Modest market movements in a quiet start to the week; US Treasury yields push higher; US equities push higher. NZD tracks sideways
US Treasury yields higher after more positive vibes on US debt ceiling negotiations, a drop in initial jobless claims. NZ Budget conveys picture of loose fiscal policy, with large cash deficit, rising debt levels. S&P fires warning shot on credit rating
19th May 23, 8:03am
US Treasury yields higher after more positive vibes on US debt ceiling negotiations, a drop in initial jobless claims. NZ Budget conveys picture of loose fiscal policy, with large cash deficit, rising debt levels. S&P fires warning shot on credit rating
Risk sentiment higher on less fear of an imminent US debt default and less concern on US banking sector. US equities up over 1%, US Treasury rates higher for a fourth consecutive day. NZ rates higher on revised OCR calls
18th May 23, 7:42am
Risk sentiment higher on less fear of an imminent US debt default and less concern on US banking sector. US equities up over 1%, US Treasury rates higher for a fourth consecutive day. NZ rates higher on revised OCR calls
US Treasury yields push higher, market weighed by corporate supply. NZ rates higher after Westpac's 6% OCR call. Soft China data weigh on yuan and AUD; modest lift in USD
17th May 23, 8:08am
US Treasury yields push higher, market weighed by corporate supply. NZ rates higher after Westpac's 6% OCR call. Soft China data weigh on yuan and AUD; modest lift in USD
US Treasury yields push higher; plunge in US Empire manufacturing survey soon forgotten; mixed messages from FOMC members. Locally, Westpac changes NZ rate call to a 6% OCR peak
16th May 23, 7:56am
US Treasury yields push higher; plunge in US Empire manufacturing survey soon forgotten; mixed messages from FOMC members. Locally, Westpac changes NZ rate call to a 6% OCR peak
Weak China data drive commodity prices lower. US jobless claims trending much higher now, PPI data support weaker inflation backdrop. Risk off tone supports global bond markets and broadly based gains in USD
12th May 23, 7:47am
Weak China data drive commodity prices lower. US jobless claims trending much higher now, PPI data support weaker inflation backdrop. Risk off tone supports global bond markets and broadly based gains in USD
Markets trade cautiously ahead of Biden/McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and US CPI. Treasuries extend recent sell-off. China trade data weak. US small business survey weak. Big improvement in Australian fiscal metrics contrasts with big deterioration in NZ
10th May 23, 7:46am
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Markets trade cautiously ahead of Biden/McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and US CPI. Treasuries extend recent sell-off. China trade data weak. US small business survey weak. Big improvement in Australian fiscal metrics contrasts with big deterioration in NZ
US Treasury yields show further upside, lifting 8-9bps. Most major currencies show little net movement against the USD; NZD and AUD outperform. Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey shows further tightening in lending standards and softer business credit demand
9th May 23, 7:46am
US Treasury yields show further upside, lifting 8-9bps. Most major currencies show little net movement against the USD; NZD and AUD outperform. Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey shows further tightening in lending standards and softer business credit demand
Risk appetite recovered on Friday, seeing US banking stocks bounce higher and strong gains in US equities. US employment report mixed although still consistent with a tight labour market
8th May 23, 7:52am
Risk appetite recovered on Friday, seeing US banking stocks bounce higher and strong gains in US equities. US employment report mixed although still consistent with a tight labour market