Nick Smyth
ECB announces accelerated taper schedule, opens door to earlier rate hikes. Commodity currencies stronger. Equities lower across the board as risk appetite retrenches
11th Mar 22, 8:04am
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ECB announces accelerated taper schedule, opens door to earlier rate hikes. Commodity currencies stronger. Equities lower across the board as risk appetite retrenches
Extreme volatility continues across asset classes. Russia-Ukraine war remains investors' focus, overshadowing nonfarm payrolls. Commodities continue to surge higher
7th Mar 22, 7:49am
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Extreme volatility continues across asset classes. Russia-Ukraine war remains investors' focus, overshadowing nonfarm payrolls. Commodities continue to surge higher
Equities and bond yields lower overnight; markets remain volatile. Powell reiterates that Fed will kick off tightening cycle this month with a 25bps hike. Commodity prices generally stronger, although oil falls on speculation of an Iran nuclear deal
4th Mar 22, 7:51am
Equities and bond yields lower overnight; markets remain volatile. Powell reiterates that Fed will kick off tightening cycle this month with a 25bps hike. Commodity prices generally stronger, although oil falls on speculation of an Iran nuclear deal
Risk appetite rebounds overnight - equities and rates increase sharply. Commodity prices surge. Powell signals a 25bps rate hike this month. Bank of Canada raises rates 25bps, indicates more to come
3rd Mar 22, 8:04am
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Risk appetite rebounds overnight - equities and rates increase sharply. Commodity prices surge. Powell signals a 25bps rate hike this month. Bank of Canada raises rates 25bps, indicates more to come
Russia invades Ukraine, causing significant volatility across markets. US equity markets initially plummet, but recover significantly overnight. Brent crude oil breaks $100 on supply disruption fears; aluminum, nickel, corn, wheat also higher
25th Feb 22, 8:01am
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Russia invades Ukraine, causing significant volatility across markets. US equity markets initially plummet, but recover significantly overnight. Brent crude oil breaks $100 on supply disruption fears; aluminum, nickel, corn, wheat also higher
Risk appetite remains cautious with Russia-Ukraine tensions heightened. Lower equities and bond yields and a stronger USD. Market lowers likelihood of a 50bps Fed hike after comments from NY Fed Pres. Williams
21st Feb 22, 7:55am
Risk appetite remains cautious with Russia-Ukraine tensions heightened. Lower equities and bond yields and a stronger USD. Market lowers likelihood of a 50bps Fed hike after comments from NY Fed Pres. Williams
Bond yields and equities lower overnight after Ukraine warning. Currencies less affected. Fed speakers in focus because markets unsure of size of next Fed move
18th Feb 22, 7:52am
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Bond yields and equities lower overnight after Ukraine warning. Currencies less affected. Fed speakers in focus because markets unsure of size of next Fed move
Market focus shifts to possible near-term Russian invasion of Ukraine leading to sharp falls in equities, bond yields and a rally in the USD. Oil spikes. Big Fed hike expectations scaled back
14th Feb 22, 7:51am
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Market focus shifts to possible near-term Russian invasion of Ukraine leading to sharp falls in equities, bond yields and a rally in the USD. Oil spikes. Big Fed hike expectations scaled back
US CPI surprises to the upside yet again. Fed's Bullard calls for a 50bps rate hike in March and markets now close to pricing that in, with more than five more hikes this year
11th Feb 22, 7:51am
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US CPI surprises to the upside yet again. Fed's Bullard calls for a 50bps rate hike in March and markets now close to pricing that in, with more than five more hikes this year
Extremely strong US payrolls report leads to further increases in global rates. USD modestly stronger with NZD back down to around 66.2 USc. All eyes on the US CPI report this week
8th Feb 22, 7:54am
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Extremely strong US payrolls report leads to further increases in global rates. USD modestly stronger with NZD back down to around 66.2 USc. All eyes on the US CPI report this week
Government will probably have to issue more debt than planned to help the Reserve Bank downsize its $54 billion bond portfolio - BNZ strategist
7th Feb 22, 7:30am
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Government will probably have to issue more debt than planned to help the Reserve Bank downsize its $54 billion bond portfolio - BNZ strategist
ECB makes its hawkish pivot overnight. European and UK rates much higher, flowing through to other markets. Equity markets under pressure again. US nonfarm payrolls tonight, with a material negative risk
4th Feb 22, 8:03am
ECB makes its hawkish pivot overnight. European and UK rates much higher, flowing through to other markets. Equity markets under pressure again. US nonfarm payrolls tonight, with a material negative risk
Equities continue to recover, while UST 10-year remains range-bound. European rates and EUR higher after big upside surprise to European inflation data. RBA's Lowe acknowledges a rate hike later this year is "plausible"
3rd Feb 22, 8:00am
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Equities continue to recover, while UST 10-year remains range-bound. European rates and EUR higher after big upside surprise to European inflation data. RBA's Lowe acknowledges a rate hike later this year is "plausible"
Global bond sell-off pauses overnight. German 10-year had earlier hit 0% for first time since 2019. Huge move higher in NZ 2-year swap yesterday in thin conditions, with market wary of CPI next week
20th Jan 22, 7:53am
Global bond sell-off pauses overnight. German 10-year had earlier hit 0% for first time since 2019. Huge move higher in NZ 2-year swap yesterday in thin conditions, with market wary of CPI next week
Global rates continue to trend higher - US 10yr hits 2-year high with market pricing small chance of 50bps Fed hike in March. Equities under pressure again
19th Jan 22, 8:04am
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Global rates continue to trend higher - US 10yr hits 2-year high with market pricing small chance of 50bps Fed hike in March. Equities under pressure again
Global rates continue to trend higher as market brings forward central bank tightening with 4 Fed hikes now fully priced for 2022. NZ curve steepening continues with global moves dragging long-term NZ rates higher
18th Jan 22, 7:48am
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Global rates continue to trend higher as market brings forward central bank tightening with 4 Fed hikes now fully priced for 2022. NZ curve steepening continues with global moves dragging long-term NZ rates higher
US rates surge higher after Fed signals earlier rate hikes and balance sheet unwind - market prices first Fed hike in March. Higher real rates, commodity prices, cyclical stocks point to more optimism around global growth and Omicron risks
17th Jan 22, 8:26am
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US rates surge higher after Fed signals earlier rate hikes and balance sheet unwind - market prices first Fed hike in March. Higher real rates, commodity prices, cyclical stocks point to more optimism around global growth and Omicron risks
Equities lower, yield curves flatter as Fed official says March is a "live meeting" for a rate hike Omicron continues to spread rapidly. Biden's $1.75tn Build Back Better bill now looks unlikely to pass
20th Dec 21, 7:51am
Equities lower, yield curves flatter as Fed official says March is a "live meeting" for a rate hike Omicron continues to spread rapidly. Biden's $1.75tn Build Back Better bill now looks unlikely to pass
Fed signals three hikes next year. BoE raises rates/ ECB to taper its bond buying next year but signals no hikes in 2022
17th Dec 21, 8:02am
Fed signals three hikes next year. BoE raises rates/ ECB to taper its bond buying next year but signals no hikes in 2022
US CPI hits highest level in almost 40 years amidst broadening inflation pressures. Fed expected to announce a faster tapering pace later this week. S&P500 closes at new record high, oil prices increase on Omicron optimism
13th Dec 21, 7:54am
US CPI hits highest level in almost 40 years amidst broadening inflation pressures. Fed expected to announce a faster tapering pace later this week. S&P500 closes at new record high, oil prices increase on Omicron optimism
Equities and bond yields pull back slightly. China announces measures to dampen CNY strength. NZD back below 0.68 amidst a firmer USD
10th Dec 21, 8:03am
Equities and bond yields pull back slightly. China announces measures to dampen CNY strength. NZD back below 0.68 amidst a firmer USD
Risk-off moves across markets. Equities (especially tech) and rates tumble. US payrolls report a mixed bag. Relentless yield curve flattening in New Zealand
6th Dec 21, 7:46am
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Risk-off moves across markets. Equities (especially tech) and rates tumble. US payrolls report a mixed bag. Relentless yield curve flattening in New Zealand
Risk appetite rebounds. Markets remain volatile and sentiment driven as investors await more information on Omicron. Fed officials repeat support for a faster tapering
3rd Dec 21, 7:53am
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Risk appetite rebounds. Markets remain volatile and sentiment driven as investors await more information on Omicron. Fed officials repeat support for a faster tapering
New Covid-19 variant (Omicron) spooks markets. Equities and oil prices tumble, government bond yields fall sharply. Market moves exacerbated by thin conditions after Thanksgiving
29th Nov 21, 7:51am
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New Covid-19 variant (Omicron) spooks markets. Equities and oil prices tumble, government bond yields fall sharply. Market moves exacerbated by thin conditions after Thanksgiving
FOMC minutes show discussion around a faster taper, supporting US short-term rates and the USD. NZD hits three-month low overnight, EUR and GBP hovering near 12-month lows
26th Nov 21, 7:51am
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FOMC minutes show discussion around a faster taper, supporting US short-term rates and the USD. NZD hits three-month low overnight, EUR and GBP hovering near 12-month lows