Nick Smyth
ECB confirms reduced QE bond buying pace in Q4, a "recalibration", not a "tapering". Equity markets flat-to-slightly lower. Market pricing a small chance of a 50bp OCR hike at the RBNZ's October meeting
10th Sep 21, 7:48am
ECB confirms reduced QE bond buying pace in Q4, a "recalibration", not a "tapering". Equity markets flat-to-slightly lower. Market pricing a small chance of a 50bp OCR hike at the RBNZ's October meeting
Big downside miss on US payrolls but wage growth stronger than expected. No tapering signal until at least November. US curve steepens, USD falls, equities little changed
6th Sep 21, 8:20am
Big downside miss on US payrolls but wage growth stronger than expected. No tapering signal until at least November. US curve steepens, USD falls, equities little changed
USD falls to a one-month low, now down 1% since Powell's Jackson Hole speech. NZ 10-year bond spread to Australia reaches fresh 5½ year high
3rd Sep 21, 7:47am
USD falls to a one-month low, now down 1% since Powell's Jackson Hole speech. NZ 10-year bond spread to Australia reaches fresh 5½ year high
Powell's Jackson Hole speech confirms tapering soon. Equities higher, bond yields and USD lower. Eyes now on US non-farm payrolls
30th Aug 21, 7:50am
Powell's Jackson Hole speech confirms tapering soon. Equities higher, bond yields and USD lower. Eyes now on US non-farm payrolls
Suicide bombings outside Kabul airport see risk appetite turn more cautious. Equity markets fall, albeit off the intraday lows. USD stronger with commodity currencies underperforming
27th Aug 21, 7:45am
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Suicide bombings outside Kabul airport see risk appetite turn more cautious. Equity markets fall, albeit off the intraday lows. USD stronger with commodity currencies underperforming
Equity markets, industrial commodities rebound as Dallas Fed President Kaplan (a 'hawk') hints he is open to delaying tapering. NZD stabilises on Friday but still down heavily (~3%) on the week
23rd Aug 21, 7:51am
Equity markets, industrial commodities rebound as Dallas Fed President Kaplan (a 'hawk') hints he is open to delaying tapering. NZD stabilises on Friday but still down heavily (~3%) on the week
Commodities sharply lower over the past 24 hours on global growth concerns. NZD and AUD print fresh YTD lows, USD makes a 9-month high. NZ rates market pares back OCR rate hike expectations yesterday with Covid case numbers in focus
20th Aug 21, 8:01am
Commodities sharply lower over the past 24 hours on global growth concerns. NZD and AUD print fresh YTD lows, USD makes a 9-month high. NZ rates market pares back OCR rate hike expectations yesterday with Covid case numbers in focus
Big falls in US 10-year and USD after shockingly low US consumer confidence. Thin markets likely exacerbating the moves. NZD back above 0.70 amidst weaker USD backdrop
16th Aug 21, 7:38am
Big falls in US 10-year and USD after shockingly low US consumer confidence. Thin markets likely exacerbating the moves. NZD back above 0.70 amidst weaker USD backdrop
US 10-year rate higher, reversing its post US-CPI fall. NZD underperforms, alongside AUD, to be back under 0.70. Second-tier NZ data yesterday reinforces case for RBNZ OCR hikes
13th Aug 21, 7:49am
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US 10-year rate higher, reversing its post US-CPI fall. NZD underperforms, alongside AUD, to be back under 0.70. Second-tier NZ data yesterday reinforces case for RBNZ OCR hikes
US nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected on all fronts. US 10-year jumps to 1.30%, USD higher on potential for earlier Fed tapering. S&P500 edges to fresh record high, with reflation trade favourites making a comeback
9th Aug 21, 7:30am
US nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected on all fronts. US 10-year jumps to 1.30%, USD higher on potential for earlier Fed tapering. S&P500 edges to fresh record high, with reflation trade favourites making a comeback
Limited market moves as investors wait on payrolls tonight. Equities, bond yields and NZD all higher overnight. Bank of England suggests some "modest" tightening likely. NZ rates consolidate yesterday after their sharp increases post-HLFS
6th Aug 21, 7:49am
Limited market moves as investors wait on payrolls tonight. Equities, bond yields and NZD all higher overnight. Bank of England suggests some "modest" tightening likely. NZ rates consolidate yesterday after their sharp increases post-HLFS
Equities and bond yields lower, USD higher on Friday. Plenty of economic data but little impact on markets. AUD and NZD underperform last week with RBA expected to reverse tapering decision
2nd Aug 21, 7:36am
Equities and bond yields lower, USD higher on Friday. Plenty of economic data but little impact on markets. AUD and NZD underperform last week with RBA expected to reverse tapering decision
US Q2 GDP weaker than expected, but with strong consumption and investment. Equities and bond yields increase, USD continues to fall. NZD back above 0.70 with gains on all the key crosses
30th Jul 21, 7:56am
US Q2 GDP weaker than expected, but with strong consumption and investment. Equities and bond yields increase, USD continues to fall. NZD back above 0.70 with gains on all the key crosses
Equity markets reach new record highs, supported by corporate earnings expectations. Global rates and currencies little changed on Friday. FOMC meeting, Australian CPI the key highlights this week
26th Jul 21, 7:36am
Equity markets reach new record highs, supported by corporate earnings expectations. Global rates and currencies little changed on Friday. FOMC meeting, Australian CPI the key highlights this week
Market sentiment turns more cautious. Equity markets lower, US 10-year falls below 1.30%. USD strengthens to near a three-month high. NZ 2-year swap jumps another 6bps ahead of the CPI release this morning
16th Jul 21, 7:49am
Market sentiment turns more cautious. Equity markets lower, US 10-year falls below 1.30%. USD strengthens to near a three-month high. NZ 2-year swap jumps another 6bps ahead of the CPI release this morning
RBNZ announces an end to bond buying - market prices ~70% chance of an August OCR hike. US 10-year and USD pull back after yesterday's post-US CPI increases. Bank of Canada tapers QE, but market expected more hawkish guidance
15th Jul 21, 7:48am
RBNZ announces an end to bond buying - market prices ~70% chance of an August OCR hike. US 10-year and USD pull back after yesterday's post-US CPI increases. Bank of Canada tapers QE, but market expected more hawkish guidance
US CPI much higher than expected again. Yield curve initially flattens on Fed rate hike risk before weak 30-year auction drags long-end rates higher. Equity markets give back earlier gains as US 10-year rate jumps
14th Jul 21, 7:49am
US CPI much higher than expected again. Yield curve initially flattens on Fed rate hike risk before weak 30-year auction drags long-end rates higher. Equity markets give back earlier gains as US 10-year rate jumps
Limited moves overnight as markets await key event risks later in the week. US equities and USD slightly higher, US 10-year consolidates. US CPI release the highlight tonight, with core inflation expected to hit 4% y/y
13th Jul 21, 7:52am
Limited moves overnight as markets await key event risks later in the week. US equities and USD slightly higher, US 10-year consolidates. US CPI release the highlight tonight, with core inflation expected to hit 4% y/y
Markets move from risk-off to risk-on. Sentiment turns around as PBOC cuts RRR, China credit growth surprises. US 10-year rebounds to 1.36%, S&P500 closes at a new record high
12th Jul 21, 7:37am
Markets move from risk-off to risk-on. Sentiment turns around as PBOC cuts RRR, China credit growth surprises. US 10-year rebounds to 1.36%, S&P500 closes at a new record high
Risk-off moves overnight. US 10-year hits 1.25%, S&P500 falls 1%. AUD prints fresh YTD low, NZD drops to 0.6940. Big fall in long-term NZ government bond yields
9th Jul 21, 7:51am
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Risk-off moves overnight. US 10-year hits 1.25%, S&P500 falls 1%. AUD prints fresh YTD low, NZD drops to 0.6940. Big fall in long-term NZ government bond yields
US nonfarm payrolls report a mixed bag - job growth stronger but unemployment rate ticks higher. Market reaction suggests investors think the Fed has time on its side to decide on tapering
5th Jul 21, 7:36am
US nonfarm payrolls report a mixed bag - job growth stronger but unemployment rate ticks higher. Market reaction suggests investors think the Fed has time on its side to decide on tapering
Market moves reasonably subdued as investors wait on US payrolls tonight. Equities slightly higher, US 10-year back to almost 1.50%. USD strengthens, taking the NZD down towards its recent lows
2nd Jul 21, 7:47am
Market moves reasonably subdued as investors wait on US payrolls tonight. Equities slightly higher, US 10-year back to almost 1.50%. USD strengthens, taking the NZD down towards its recent lows
Markets continue to recover from the hawkish June Fed meeting. S&P500 ends last week at a record high, US 10-year rate up above 1.50%. Market continues to bring forward RBNZ rate hike pricing - November now seen as a greater than 50% chance
28th Jun 21, 8:04am
Markets continue to recover from the hawkish June Fed meeting. S&P500 ends last week at a record high, US 10-year rate up above 1.50%. Market continues to bring forward RBNZ rate hike pricing - November now seen as a greater than 50% chance
PMI data point to rapid global economic recovery. NZD and AUD continue to recover from their post-FOMC sell-offs. Wellington moves to Covid Alert Level 2, but limited reaction so far in markets
24th Jun 21, 7:59am
PMI data point to rapid global economic recovery. NZD and AUD continue to recover from their post-FOMC sell-offs. Wellington moves to Covid Alert Level 2, but limited reaction so far in markets
Risk assets remain under pressure post-FOMC. Yield curves continue to flatten hard as markets pull forward rate hike pricing. Market now pricing almost 70% chance of Feb-22 RBNZ hike
21st Jun 21, 7:40am
Risk assets remain under pressure post-FOMC. Yield curves continue to flatten hard as markets pull forward rate hike pricing. Market now pricing almost 70% chance of Feb-22 RBNZ hike