Stephen Toplis
Economists say this week's Budget is going to make 'good reading' when compared with the gloomy updates over the past year
17th May 21, 2:00pm
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Economists say this week's Budget is going to make 'good reading' when compared with the gloomy updates over the past year
BNZ economists say the Government is 'dead set' on curtailing soaring house prices and will do what it takes - 'it will almost certainly win in the end'
25th Mar 21, 11:14am
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BNZ economists say the Government is 'dead set' on curtailing soaring house prices and will do what it takes - 'it will almost certainly win in the end'
No changes to the country's monetary policy settings are expected when the Reserve Bank has its first review of the year next week - but everybody will be looking for clues as to what comes next
20th Feb 21, 12:27pm
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No changes to the country's monetary policy settings are expected when the Reserve Bank has its first review of the year next week - but everybody will be looking for clues as to what comes next
The shock drop in the unemployment rate has ended all talk of further official interest rate falls and is now prompting increased speculation of rates beginning to rise in 2022
3rd Feb 21, 3:24pm
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The shock drop in the unemployment rate has ended all talk of further official interest rate falls and is now prompting increased speculation of rates beginning to rise in 2022
BNZ report warns the renewed surge in house prices could increase the wealth gap between the haves and have nots
17th Oct 20, 9:53am
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BNZ report warns the renewed surge in house prices could increase the wealth gap between the haves and have nots
Statistics New Zealand says the 12.2% shrinkage of the economy in the June quarter is 'by far the largest on record in New Zealand'; the fall is in line with what major bank economists forecast
17th Sep 20, 10:58am
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Statistics New Zealand says the 12.2% shrinkage of the economy in the June quarter is 'by far the largest on record in New Zealand'; the fall is in line with what major bank economists forecast
The country is set to see its largest ever contraction in the economy reported this week - but the final figure's actually expected to be much smaller than first feared and the focus is already on how much the economy will grow by in the September quarter
14th Sep 20, 1:37pm
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The country is set to see its largest ever contraction in the economy reported this week - but the final figure's actually expected to be much smaller than first feared and the focus is already on how much the economy will grow by in the September quarter
Economists are welcoming the country's faster than expected move to normality after the lockdown but warn that bad news is still ahead regarding unemployment
8th Jun 20, 3:04pm
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Economists are welcoming the country's faster than expected move to normality after the lockdown but warn that bad news is still ahead regarding unemployment
Stephen Toplis says that despite winning the virus battle, it is no time for complacency. The economic costs will be massive and we will be left with enduring problems
3rd May 20, 9:19am
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Stephen Toplis says that despite winning the virus battle, it is no time for complacency. The economic costs will be massive and we will be left with enduring problems
BNZ's head of research Stephen Toplis says economic activity will not return to pre-crisis levels till 2023, while unemployment might not get back below 5% before 2025
30th Mar 20, 3:51pm
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BNZ's head of research Stephen Toplis says economic activity will not return to pre-crisis levels till 2023, while unemployment might not get back below 5% before 2025
BNZ's head of research Stephen Toplis has 'pencilled in' a -5% fall in economic activity for the June quarter 'but it could easily be more than double this': Unemployment may later hit 9%
25th Mar 20, 3:01pm
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BNZ's head of research Stephen Toplis has 'pencilled in' a -5% fall in economic activity for the June quarter 'but it could easily be more than double this': Unemployment may later hit 9%
Our economists are talking recession with a capital R: 'It won't be a shallow one'
16th Mar 20, 4:54pm
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Our economists are talking recession with a capital R: 'It won't be a shallow one'
BNZ economists expect the economy to contract in the first two quarters of the year; ANZ economists call for a minimum wage freeze and for the Government to increase its debt limit by $60 billion
9th Mar 20, 3:09pm
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BNZ economists expect the economy to contract in the first two quarters of the year; ANZ economists call for a minimum wage freeze and for the Government to increase its debt limit by $60 billion
RBNZ 'prepared to ensure well-functioning financial system including access to credit, cash & liquidity in the banking system.' BNZ's Toplis says Fed cut 'unjustified', RBNZ could be 'voice of reason in panic-driven world'
4th Mar 20, 11:55am
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RBNZ 'prepared to ensure well-functioning financial system including access to credit, cash & liquidity in the banking system.' BNZ's Toplis says Fed cut 'unjustified', RBNZ could be 'voice of reason in panic-driven world'
BNZ economists caution that the hit to the NZ economy from our worsening Big Dry could be as bad as the impact from coronavirus and they say a recession is a 'very real risk'
17th Feb 20, 1:11pm
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BNZ economists caution that the hit to the NZ economy from our worsening Big Dry could be as bad as the impact from coronavirus and they say a recession is a 'very real risk'
Reserve Bank is indicating that it has now done with any further interest rate cuts unless the impacts of coronavirus prove more long lasting than it currently anticipates; dollar and swap rates up
12th Feb 20, 2:09pm
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Reserve Bank is indicating that it has now done with any further interest rate cuts unless the impacts of coronavirus prove more long lasting than it currently anticipates; dollar and swap rates up
Reserve Bank universally expected to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at next week's review but will point to the uncertainties around coronavirus and how that might affect the New Zealand economy
6th Feb 20, 9:08am
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Reserve Bank universally expected to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at next week's review but will point to the uncertainties around coronavirus and how that might affect the New Zealand economy
Why Treasury only expects to issue an additional $8 billion of bonds to cover $15 billion of new capital expenditure, and how further issuance is expected when higher operational expenditure is 'inevitably' announced
12th Dec 19, 7:29am
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Why Treasury only expects to issue an additional $8 billion of bonds to cover $15 billion of new capital expenditure, and how further issuance is expected when higher operational expenditure is 'inevitably' announced
The Official Cash Rate will most probably be kept at 1% this week after last month's shock double cut - but under the current RBNZ regime, nothing should be ruled out
23rd Sep 19, 11:30am
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The Official Cash Rate will most probably be kept at 1% this week after last month's shock double cut - but under the current RBNZ regime, nothing should be ruled out
'A stunning decision' - RBNZ delivers huge surprise with a 50-basis-point cut to the Official Cash Rate; banks quickly react with mortgage cuts; dollar drops
7th Aug 19, 2:08pm
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'A stunning decision' - RBNZ delivers huge surprise with a 50-basis-point cut to the Official Cash Rate; banks quickly react with mortgage cuts; dollar drops
NZIER's 'shadow board' of experts commenting on the Official Cash Rate is throwing up increasing doubts about the effectiveness of continuing to push interest rates down
6th Aug 19, 8:57am
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NZIER's 'shadow board' of experts commenting on the Official Cash Rate is throwing up increasing doubts about the effectiveness of continuing to push interest rates down
Former RBNZ chairman Arthur Grimes suggests the central bank might want to consider reversing the interest rate cut it made a month ago
24th Jun 19, 11:43am
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Former RBNZ chairman Arthur Grimes suggests the central bank might want to consider reversing the interest rate cut it made a month ago
Economists are concerned that Treasury hasn't incorporated recent slowing economic conditions in its forecasts and this could see the Government get into trouble in future years with its spending plans
30th May 19, 2:58pm
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Economists are concerned that Treasury hasn't incorporated recent slowing economic conditions in its forecasts and this could see the Government get into trouble in future years with its spending plans
BNZ economists see the likelihood of another interest rate cut increased by the results of the latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey
29th May 19, 4:32pm
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BNZ economists see the likelihood of another interest rate cut increased by the results of the latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey
RBNZ cuts official interest rates for the first time since November 2016; ANZ and Kiwibank immediately cut rates
8th May 19, 2:04pm
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RBNZ cuts official interest rates for the first time since November 2016; ANZ and Kiwibank immediately cut rates