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UK gilts sell-off leads another bout of higher rates around the world and fresh cycle highs; US 10-year rate up to 4.69% before reversing course. Progress in UAW and carmaker wage negotiations, and improving US/China talks support risk appetite
29th Sep 23, 7:53am
UK gilts sell-off leads another bout of higher rates around the world and fresh cycle highs; US 10-year rate up to 4.69% before reversing course. Progress in UAW and carmaker wage negotiations, and improving US/China talks support risk appetite
Global long-term rates up to fresh cycle highs; US 10-year reaches 4.63%, curve steepens further; US equities continue to fall. Oil prices up 3% to fresh highs for the year as US crude inventories running low
28th Sep 23, 8:00am
Global long-term rates up to fresh cycle highs; US 10-year reaches 4.63%, curve steepens further; US equities continue to fall. Oil prices up 3% to fresh highs for the year as US crude inventories running low
US Treasury yields trade near cycle highs with little net movement overnight; Global forces send NZ rates up to fresh highs yesterday. USD broadly stronger, but only small moves overall
27th Sep 23, 7:53am
US Treasury yields trade near cycle highs with little net movement overnight; Global forces send NZ rates up to fresh highs yesterday. USD broadly stronger, but only small moves overall
Global bond market sell-off returns - US and German 10-year rates up to fresh highs; steeper curves evident, with US2s10s at four-month high. China's Evergrande woes return. China property stocks lower, yuan softer; global metal prices weaker
26th Sep 23, 7:45am
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Global bond market sell-off returns - US and German 10-year rates up to fresh highs; steeper curves evident, with US2s10s at four-month high. China's Evergrande woes return. China property stocks lower, yuan softer; global metal prices weaker
Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
25th Sep 23, 9:05am
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Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
US equities fall for four consecutive days, third consecutive week. UST yields reverse course. BoJ maintains ultra-easy policy with Governor Ueda dovish; yen weakens back to near 10-month low
25th Sep 23, 8:34am
US equities fall for four consecutive days, third consecutive week. UST yields reverse course. BoJ maintains ultra-easy policy with Governor Ueda dovish; yen weakens back to near 10-month low
Global curves steeper in the wake of the Fed's hawkish-hold; BoE and Swiss National Bank opt to keep rates on hold. Fresh highs for 10-year rates across the US, Germany, Japan NZ and others. US 10-year rate just shy of 4.5%
22nd Sep 23, 7:49am
Global curves steeper in the wake of the Fed's hawkish-hold; BoE and Swiss National Bank opt to keep rates on hold. Fresh highs for 10-year rates across the US, Germany, Japan NZ and others. US 10-year rate just shy of 4.5%
The US Federal Reserve upwardly revised growth forecasts, the updated quarterly projections signalled one further 25bp hike this year and notably reduced the amount of easing for 2024
21st Sep 23, 7:54am
The US Federal Reserve upwardly revised growth forecasts, the updated quarterly projections signalled one further 25bp hike this year and notably reduced the amount of easing for 2024
Global rates push higher. Nerves ahead of Fed meeting in 24 hours, much higher than expected Canadian CPI inflation data and higher oil prices not helping. Further recovery in global dairy prices at the overnight GDT auction
20th Sep 23, 7:49am
Global rates push higher. Nerves ahead of Fed meeting in 24 hours, much higher than expected Canadian CPI inflation data and higher oil prices not helping. Further recovery in global dairy prices at the overnight GDT auction
A quiet start to a busy week, with Fed, BoE and BoJ meetings later in the week. US Treasuries curve flattens; BIS warns of growing leverage in the market
19th Sep 23, 7:51am
A quiet start to a busy week, with Fed, BoE and BoJ meetings later in the week. US Treasuries curve flattens; BIS warns of growing leverage in the market
Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars
18th Sep 23, 9:06am
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Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars
US equities ended last week on a soft note led by technology stocks. US inflation expectations fell more than expected. Better then expected activity data in China provided a temporary boost for Australasian currencies
18th Sep 23, 7:45am
US equities ended last week on a soft note led by technology stocks. US inflation expectations fell more than expected. Better then expected activity data in China provided a temporary boost for Australasian currencies
US economic data play to soft landing narrative. Oil prices continue to rise. US Treasury yields push higher. EUR and GBP weaker after ECB's dovish hike
15th Sep 23, 7:56am
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US economic data play to soft landing narrative. Oil prices continue to rise. US Treasury yields push higher. EUR and GBP weaker after ECB's dovish hike
Response across financial markets to higher US CPI was largely subdued. Eurozone Industrial production fell. The UK economy contracted more than expected
14th Sep 23, 7:52am
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Response across financial markets to higher US CPI was largely subdued. Eurozone Industrial production fell. The UK economy contracted more than expected
Oil prices up to a 10-month high on signs of a tightening market. Global rates well contained ahead of key US CPI data tonight, with higher petrol prices likely to push inflation higher
13th Sep 23, 7:46am
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Oil prices up to a 10-month high on signs of a tightening market. Global rates well contained ahead of key US CPI data tonight, with higher petrol prices likely to push inflation higher
Bank of Japan comments drive stronger yen and 10-year JGB yield to highest level since 2014. Not coincidentally, PBoC sets a much stronger CNY fix. Positive spillover effects for NZD and AUD
12th Sep 23, 7:40am
Bank of Japan comments drive stronger yen and 10-year JGB yield to highest level since 2014. Not coincidentally, PBoC sets a much stronger CNY fix. Positive spillover effects for NZD and AUD
Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record
11th Sep 23, 8:11am
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Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record
US treasury yields moved higher supporting the US Dollar which rose for the eighth straight week, its longest run since 2005. China consumer prices increased 0.1% y/y in August. Although China edged out of deflation, soft pricing pressures point to weak d
11th Sep 23, 7:24am
US treasury yields moved higher supporting the US Dollar which rose for the eighth straight week, its longest run since 2005. China consumer prices increased 0.1% y/y in August. Although China edged out of deflation, soft pricing pressures point to weak d
Global rates lower across the board, lower than expected US jobless claims data. The yuan weakens to a 16-year low; no spillover for NZD and AUD which hold up against robust USD. EUR and GBP fall to three-month lows; JPY supported by lower rates backdrop
8th Sep 23, 7:50am
Global rates lower across the board, lower than expected US jobless claims data. The yuan weakens to a 16-year low; no spillover for NZD and AUD which hold up against robust USD. EUR and GBP fall to three-month lows; JPY supported by lower rates backdrop
The ISM US services sector survey was stronger than expected. US treasuries extended the recent move higher. The Bank of Canada held rates steady. Asian policy makers have been pushing back against currency weakness
7th Sep 23, 8:06am
The ISM US services sector survey was stronger than expected. US treasuries extended the recent move higher. The Bank of Canada held rates steady. Asian policy makers have been pushing back against currency weakness
Weak China Caixin services PMI triggers fall in Asia-Pacific currencies and broad USD strength. Oil prices up to fresh high for the year on extended production/export cuts. GDT dairy auction shows a rare lift in pricing
6th Sep 23, 7:55am
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Weak China Caixin services PMI triggers fall in Asia-Pacific currencies and broad USD strength. Oil prices up to fresh high for the year on extended production/export cuts. GDT dairy auction shows a rare lift in pricing
Early signs of recovery in Beijing and Shanghai property markets after policy easing. US equity futures down a touch; US Treasury futures point to small lift in rates
5th Sep 23, 7:46am
Early signs of recovery in Beijing and Shanghai property markets after policy easing. US equity futures down a touch; US Treasury futures point to small lift in rates
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
4th Sep 23, 8:09am
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Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
The US labour market report provided further evidence their economy is on track for ‘soft landing’. US treasury yields moved higher lending support to the US Dollar. Crude oil prices now at highest level since November as supplies tighten
4th Sep 23, 7:30am
The US labour market report provided further evidence their economy is on track for ‘soft landing’. US treasury yields moved higher lending support to the US Dollar. Crude oil prices now at highest level since November as supplies tighten
Global rates push lower, led by European yields as some tightening priced in is pared back. New policies announced to help revive China's property market. CNY and JPY stronger, EUR and GBP weaker; NZD and AUD range-trade
1st Sep 23, 7:59am
Global rates push lower, led by European yields as some tightening priced in is pared back. New policies announced to help revive China's property market. CNY and JPY stronger, EUR and GBP weaker; NZD and AUD range-trade