Business Confidence
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
27th Nov 23, 8:52am
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Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
13th Nov 23, 8:58am
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Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
6th Nov 23, 9:09am
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a bounce in most activity indicators; ANZ chief economist says 'it would clearly be a stretch to argue there's been no election impact'
31st Oct 23, 1:46pm
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The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a bounce in most activity indicators; ANZ chief economist says 'it would clearly be a stretch to argue there's been no election impact'
Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
30th Oct 23, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
23rd Oct 23, 7:00am
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Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors
16th Oct 23, 8:37am
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Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors
Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
9th Oct 23, 8:21am
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Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks
2nd Oct 23, 8:35am
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Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a mixed picture of a 'patchy' economy, with inflationary pressures gradually waning, but with cost and wage expectations remaining very elevated
28th Sep 23, 1:28pm
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The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a mixed picture of a 'patchy' economy, with inflationary pressures gradually waning, but with cost and wage expectations remaining very elevated
Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
25th Sep 23, 9:05am
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Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars
18th Sep 23, 9:06am
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Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars
Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record
11th Sep 23, 8:11am
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Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
4th Sep 23, 8:09am
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Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows rising confidence and business activity levels, with falling inflation indicators - 'Goldilocks is in the building'
31st Aug 23, 1:18pm
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The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows rising confidence and business activity levels, with falling inflation indicators - 'Goldilocks is in the building'
Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
28th Aug 23, 8:20am
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Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate
21st Aug 23, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate
Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
14th Aug 23, 8:32am
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Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing
7th Aug 23, 8:54am
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Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing
ANZ economists say while the Reserve Bank is banking on the economy 'rolling over' rapidly 'we’re not convinced things are quite that weak'
31st Jul 23, 1:23pm
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ANZ economists say while the Reserve Bank is banking on the economy 'rolling over' rapidly 'we’re not convinced things are quite that weak'
Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
31st Jul 23, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling
24th Jul 23, 8:28am
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Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling
Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
17th Jul 23, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
10th Jul 23, 9:24am
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Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
David Hargreaves examines the suddenly very visible signs of the New Zealand economy slowing as it reacts to the Reserve Bank's attempts to put out the inflation fire
7th Jul 23, 5:00am
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David Hargreaves examines the suddenly very visible signs of the New Zealand economy slowing as it reacts to the Reserve Bank's attempts to put out the inflation fire