Business Confidence
David Hargreaves examines the suddenly very visible signs of the New Zealand economy slowing as it reacts to the Reserve Bank's attempts to put out the inflation fire
7th Jul 23, 5:00am
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David Hargreaves examines the suddenly very visible signs of the New Zealand economy slowing as it reacts to the Reserve Bank's attempts to put out the inflation fire
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis says he continues to believe the next move in interest rates will be down 'and that this will possibly occur sooner than the RBNZ expects'
4th Jul 23, 2:18pm
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BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis says he continues to believe the next move in interest rates will be down 'and that this will possibly occur sooner than the RBNZ expects'
Latest NZIER quarterly survey of business opinion shows a slight fall in pessimism but still plenty of worries
4th Jul 23, 10:15am
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Latest NZIER quarterly survey of business opinion shows a slight fall in pessimism but still plenty of worries
Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months
3rd Jul 23, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months
ANZ's latest Business Outlook Survey shows a big lift in confidence and overall sentiment, while cost and inflation expectations have dropped
29th Jun 23, 1:20pm
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ANZ's latest Business Outlook Survey shows a big lift in confidence and overall sentiment, while cost and inflation expectations have dropped
Roger J Kerr says given the current evenness in the political opinion polls it is unlikely currency market participants will be placing bets either way on the Kiwi dollar over the next few months in the lead-up to the election
26th Jun 23, 9:14am
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Roger J Kerr says given the current evenness in the political opinion polls it is unlikely currency market participants will be placing bets either way on the Kiwi dollar over the next few months in the lead-up to the election
Roger J Kerr says price action in global currency markets since the US Federal Reserve’s 'hawkish pause' on interest rates has been telling and instructive as to future direction
19th Jun 23, 8:40am
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Roger J Kerr says price action in global currency markets since the US Federal Reserve’s 'hawkish pause' on interest rates has been telling and instructive as to future direction
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar's performance has been marginally better than many have expected, based on the impending economic recession in New Zealand, coupled with an external Current Account deficit blow-out
12th Jun 23, 8:38am
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Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar's performance has been marginally better than many have expected, based on the impending economic recession in New Zealand, coupled with an external Current Account deficit blow-out
Roger J Kerr says US interest rates are set to reverse and turn lower again while Aussie interest rates will keep pushing higher. H e says the NZD/USD will closely track the AUD moves
5th Jun 23, 9:10am
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Roger J Kerr says US interest rates are set to reverse and turn lower again while Aussie interest rates will keep pushing higher. H e says the NZD/USD will closely track the AUD moves
ANZ's latest Business Outlook Survey shows improved business confidence and expected activity levels, while inflation indicators have eased - but only slowly
31st May 23, 1:32pm
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ANZ's latest Business Outlook Survey shows improved business confidence and expected activity levels, while inflation indicators have eased - but only slowly
After another surprise from Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, Roger J Kerr asks: Where to from here?
29th May 23, 8:12am
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After another surprise from Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, Roger J Kerr asks: Where to from here?
Roger J Kerr says the recent rises in the US interest rates and US currency are unlikely to be sustained
22nd May 23, 8:58am
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Roger J Kerr says the recent rises in the US interest rates and US currency are unlikely to be sustained
Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar's latest set-back appears very temporary
Roger J Kerr says the only way we will attract in any foreign investment in to fund the current account deficit is to hold our interest rates substantially higher than US, European and Asian interest rates
8th May 23, 8:36am
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Roger J Kerr says the only way we will attract in any foreign investment in to fund the current account deficit is to hold our interest rates substantially higher than US, European and Asian interest rates
Roger J Kerr says the short-term actions of central banks, coupled with long-term 'de-dollarisation' are pointing towards continued depreciation of the US dollar
1st May 23, 8:01am
Roger J Kerr says the short-term actions of central banks, coupled with long-term 'de-dollarisation' are pointing towards continued depreciation of the US dollar
ANZ says its latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey is consistent with the Reserve Bank 'gradually gaining traction' with its efforts to fight inflation
27th Apr 23, 1:15pm
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ANZ says its latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey is consistent with the Reserve Bank 'gradually gaining traction' with its efforts to fight inflation
Roger J Kerr has some timely and pertinent questions (and answers) on the economic and foreign exchange outlook
24th Apr 23, 8:31am
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Roger J Kerr has some timely and pertinent questions (and answers) on the economic and foreign exchange outlook
Roger J Kerr remains of the view that the US dollar currency value is 'primed for another significant leg downwards'
17th Apr 23, 8:04am
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Roger J Kerr remains of the view that the US dollar currency value is 'primed for another significant leg downwards'
Roger J Kerr notes that the NZD stays within its trading range despite the RBNZ's OCR surprise. And the “Fed vs the markets” battle of wills continues
10th Apr 23, 8:10am
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Roger J Kerr notes that the NZD stays within its trading range despite the RBNZ's OCR surprise. And the “Fed vs the markets” battle of wills continues
Roger J Kerr says if there was a high probability of a global economic recession over the next 12 months, a bellwether commodity price such as copper would be plummeting in value - but it is rising
3rd Apr 23, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says if there was a high probability of a global economic recession over the next 12 months, a bellwether commodity price such as copper would be plummeting in value - but it is rising
Roger J Kerr says the US Federal Reserve has adopted a measured middle path – and the net/net result is that it remains US dollar negative
27th Mar 23, 8:07am
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Roger J Kerr says the US Federal Reserve has adopted a measured middle path – and the net/net result is that it remains US dollar negative
Roger J Kerr says the AUD is poised to make gains from a recovering China, as well as the expected safe haven capital flows trying to avoid the banking sector issues in the US and Europe
20th Mar 23, 7:45am
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Roger J Kerr says the AUD is poised to make gains from a recovering China, as well as the expected safe haven capital flows trying to avoid the banking sector issues in the US and Europe
Roger J Kerr sees the American Fed decisions driven by employment & wage trends, deficit & debt ceiling issues, credit stress, and US rent trends. Fed hawkishness and USD strength has run its course, he says
13th Mar 23, 8:41am
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Roger J Kerr sees the American Fed decisions driven by employment & wage trends, deficit & debt ceiling issues, credit stress, and US rent trends. Fed hawkishness and USD strength has run its course, he says
Roger J Kerr says Australia will out-perform New Zealand in the GDP economic growth stakes this year, but the interest rate differential will remain in favour of NZ over coming months with our wage-push and sticky inflation problem
6th Mar 23, 8:04am
Roger J Kerr says Australia will out-perform New Zealand in the GDP economic growth stakes this year, but the interest rate differential will remain in favour of NZ over coming months with our wage-push and sticky inflation problem
Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows some further improvement in activity indicators - but inflation expectations 'remain stuck around 6%'
28th Feb 23, 1:30pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows some further improvement in activity indicators - but inflation expectations 'remain stuck around 6%'