currency risk
Another downside US CPI miss. Market pares Fed rate hike expectations. UST yields lower across the curve
14th Dec 22, 7:52am
Another downside US CPI miss. Market pares Fed rate hike expectations. UST yields lower across the curve
US equities fall further after rejection of brief move above its 200-day moving average. Brent crude goes sub USD80; falls in petrol prices will help rein in CPI inflation
7th Dec 22, 7:58am
US equities fall further after rejection of brief move above its 200-day moving average. Brent crude goes sub USD80; falls in petrol prices will help rein in CPI inflation
Chinese assets rally as the authorities take steps to increase vaccination rates among the elderly, seen as another step towards eventually ending the zero-Covid policy. CNH appreciates more than 1%, Hang Seng surges 5%
30th Nov 22, 7:46am
Chinese assets rally as the authorities take steps to increase vaccination rates among the elderly, seen as another step towards eventually ending the zero-Covid policy. CNH appreciates more than 1%, Hang Seng surges 5%
Weaker than expected US PPI supports the inflation-is-heading-down narrative. Weaker China activity data looked-through, with focus on the better outlook on policy support
16th Nov 22, 8:00am
Weaker than expected US PPI supports the inflation-is-heading-down narrative. Weaker China activity data looked-through, with focus on the better outlook on policy support
Investors waiting on US midterm election results and US CPI later this week. Global rates lower overnight while equities continue to recover
9th Nov 22, 7:40am
Investors waiting on US midterm election results and US CPI later this week. Global rates lower overnight while equities continue to recover
Rollercoaster ride in markets: US equities fall. US Treasury yields up significantly. Chinese rumours twist their markets
2nd Nov 22, 7:47am
Rollercoaster ride in markets: US equities fall. US Treasury yields up significantly. Chinese rumours twist their markets
Global rates show some chunky falls, a sign that global bond markets were oversold late last week, but Fed pivot narrative and weaker US data helping
26th Oct 22, 7:56am
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Global rates show some chunky falls, a sign that global bond markets were oversold late last week, but Fed pivot narrative and weaker US data helping
Markets remain volatile but net result is a strong gain for US equities and US 10-year rate back above 4%. Market pricing of NZ OCR peak now above 5.3%
19th Oct 22, 7:53am
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Markets remain volatile but net result is a strong gain for US equities and US 10-year rate back above 4%. Market pricing of NZ OCR peak now above 5.3%
Markets settle, helped by yet another BoE emergency intervention, this time supporting the inflation-indexed bond market. US 10-year rate down to 3.88% after breaking 4% yesterday; NZ rates up to fresh cycle highs
12th Oct 22, 7:46am
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Markets settle, helped by yet another BoE emergency intervention, this time supporting the inflation-indexed bond market. US 10-year rate down to 3.88% after breaking 4% yesterday; NZ rates up to fresh cycle highs
Equity markets rally strongly for the second day running. RBA hikes rates by only 25bps, sparking big fall in Aussie rates and underperformance in the AUD. USD significantly weaker amidst recovery in risk appetite
5th Oct 22, 7:51am
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Equity markets rally strongly for the second day running. RBA hikes rates by only 25bps, sparking big fall in Aussie rates and underperformance in the AUD. USD significantly weaker amidst recovery in risk appetite
Market focus remains on UK. BoE Chief Economist signals a "significant monetary policy response" to new UK Government's fiscal package. Positive US data surprises; US 10-year rate rises to just shy of 4%
28th Sep 22, 8:03am
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Market focus remains on UK. BoE Chief Economist signals a "significant monetary policy response" to new UK Government's fiscal package. Positive US data surprises; US 10-year rate rises to just shy of 4%
Annexation moves of Russian-held territories in Ukraine looks likely, which would escalate the war. Ongoing market nerves ahead of FOMC meeting tomorrow. These forces result in weaker risk sentiment and fresh highs for global rates
21st Sep 22, 8:01am
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Annexation moves of Russian-held territories in Ukraine looks likely, which would escalate the war. Ongoing market nerves ahead of FOMC meeting tomorrow. These forces result in weaker risk sentiment and fresh highs for global rates
Another US CPI shocker - to the upside, following last month's downside surprise. Market ramps up Fed tightening expectations. Risk appetite sours
14th Sep 22, 7:57am
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Another US CPI shocker - to the upside, following last month's downside surprise. Market ramps up Fed tightening expectations. Risk appetite sours
Global rates ramp higher once again after strong ISM Services index, reports UK is planning huge debt-funded fiscal stimulus. Market back to pricing a high chance of a 75bps Fed hike later this month
7th Sep 22, 7:58am
Global rates ramp higher once again after strong ISM Services index, reports UK is planning huge debt-funded fiscal stimulus. Market back to pricing a high chance of a 75bps Fed hike later this month
Good news on US labour market and consumer confidence means bad news for US Treasuries and equities. EUR supported by hawkish ECB rhetoric and another decent fall in gas prices. PBoC tries to stem depreciation of the yuan
31st Aug 22, 7:54am
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Good news on US labour market and consumer confidence means bad news for US Treasuries and equities. EUR supported by hawkish ECB rhetoric and another decent fall in gas prices. PBoC tries to stem depreciation of the yuan
Livestock prices are high. Guy Trafford explores the role the value of our currency plays
25th Aug 22, 10:35am
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Livestock prices are high. Guy Trafford explores the role the value of our currency plays
Another round of weaker US data - services PMI shows another steep drop; new home sales plunge further. Brent crude hits USD100 per barrel in further upside on fear of Saudi Arabia production cut
24th Aug 22, 7:59am
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Another round of weaker US data - services PMI shows another steep drop; new home sales plunge further. Brent crude hits USD100 per barrel in further upside on fear of Saudi Arabia production cut
Walmart and Home Depot earnings reports help support risk sentiment. But mixed US data, with a plunge in housing starts and stronger industrial production. Global rates higher, reversing previous day's fall
17th Aug 22, 7:53am
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Walmart and Home Depot earnings reports help support risk sentiment. But mixed US data, with a plunge in housing starts and stronger industrial production. Global rates higher, reversing previous day's fall
Higher US Treasury rates and further curve flattening, driving the 2s10s spread deeper into negative territory. Market nerves ahead of key US CPI data tonight
10th Aug 22, 7:53am
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Higher US Treasury rates and further curve flattening, driving the 2s10s spread deeper into negative territory. Market nerves ahead of key US CPI data tonight
Fed speakers stick to the party line on much more policy work to do to reduce inflation. Market wakes up and drives US rates a lot higher, up 17-23bps across much of the curve. Higher rates drive USD higher
3rd Aug 22, 7:48am
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Fed speakers stick to the party line on much more policy work to do to reduce inflation. Market wakes up and drives US rates a lot higher, up 17-23bps across much of the curve. Higher rates drive USD higher
Negative economic news flow continues with weaker US data and IMF global growth outlook downgrade. EU agrees to cut gas consumption by 15%; gas prices surge again
27th Jul 22, 7:45am
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Negative economic news flow continues with weaker US data and IMF global growth outlook downgrade. EU agrees to cut gas consumption by 15%; gas prices surge again
Equities rally strongly overnight - S&P500 +2.5%, Dax +2.7%. EUR continues to recover, breaking 1.02, after reports ECB will consider 50bps hike this week
20th Jul 22, 8:04am
Equities rally strongly overnight - S&P500 +2.5%, Dax +2.7%. EUR continues to recover, breaking 1.02, after reports ECB will consider 50bps hike this week
Oil down -7% on global recession fears. German rates tumble on recession fears. USD strength reverses course overnight; EUR comes within a whisker of parity before recovering
13th Jul 22, 7:56am
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Oil down -7% on global recession fears. German rates tumble on recession fears. USD strength reverses course overnight; EUR comes within a whisker of parity before recovering
Global recession fears hit markets on little fresh news. Europe hit the hardest, not helped by renewed focus on gas shortages. EUR tumbles to a near 20-year low. NZ rates set up for lower levels today
6th Jul 22, 7:44am
Global recession fears hit markets on little fresh news. Europe hit the hardest, not helped by renewed focus on gas shortages. EUR tumbles to a near 20-year low. NZ rates set up for lower levels today
Weaker US consumer confidence rocks US equities. US Treasury yields little changed. European rates higher on tough talking ECB
29th Jun 22, 7:57am
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Weaker US consumer confidence rocks US equities. US Treasury yields little changed. European rates higher on tough talking ECB