NZ$
Governor Adrian Orr explains what the Reserve Bank needs to see to have real confidence inflation pressures are easing off
5th Dec 23, 8:30am
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Governor Adrian Orr explains what the Reserve Bank needs to see to have real confidence inflation pressures are easing off
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
5th Dec 23, 7:54am
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no retail rate changes; terms of trade hold, services rise again, NZX50 promotion-relegation, swaps & NZD hold, gold at ATH, & more
4th Dec 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no retail rate changes; terms of trade hold, services rise again, NZX50 promotion-relegation, swaps & NZD hold, gold at ATH, & more
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
4th Dec 23, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
4th Dec 23, 7:40am
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes, low confidence improves, high stocks rise, low stress rises, swaps up, NZD firms, & more
1st Dec 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes, low confidence improves, high stocks rise, low stress rises, swaps up, NZD firms, & more
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
1st Dec 23, 7:54am
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; building consents struggle, confidence honeymoon extends, NZGBs popular, TDs very popular, swaps stable, NZD reverts, & more
30th Nov 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; building consents struggle, confidence honeymoon extends, NZGBs popular, TDs very popular, swaps stable, NZD reverts, & more
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
30th Nov 23, 7:53am
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; OCR unchanged by hawkish RBNZ; smaller bank profits under pressure; FHBs reticent; swaps jump; NZD jumps, & more
29th Nov 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; OCR unchanged by hawkish RBNZ; smaller bank profits under pressure; FHBs reticent; swaps jump; NZD jumps, & more
[updated]
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
29th Nov 23, 2:20pm
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Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
29th Nov 23, 7:56am
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rates changes, strong worker inflows, wind generation capacity important now, solid payroll growth, swaps lower, NZD stable, & more
28th Nov 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rates changes, strong worker inflows, wind generation capacity important now, solid payroll growth, swaps lower, NZD stable, & more
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
28th Nov 23, 7:43am
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; auction sales tough, FHBs hold up mortgage market, 'misleading' MAS pinged, KiwiSaver funds have weak quarter, swaps up, NZD stable, & more
27th Nov 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; auction sales tough, FHBs hold up mortgage market, 'misleading' MAS pinged, KiwiSaver funds have weak quarter, swaps up, NZD stable, & more
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
27th Nov 23, 8:52am
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Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
The US dollar remains under pressure. NZD/USD ended last week at 3-month highs just below 0.6100 amid the broad US dollar weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
27th Nov 23, 7:32am
The US dollar remains under pressure. NZD/USD ended last week at 3-month highs just below 0.6100 amid the broad US dollar weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
David Hargreaves says in contrast to the position it was in a year ago, the Reserve Bank will need to make a 'do nothing' Official Cash Rate decision in the coming week in a sufficiently 'hawkish' way that keeps pressure on inflation over summer
26th Nov 23, 6:00am
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David Hargreaves says in contrast to the position it was in a year ago, the Reserve Bank will need to make a 'do nothing' Official Cash Rate decision in the coming week in a sufficiently 'hawkish' way that keeps pressure on inflation over summer
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; 3-party govt detailed, retail sales soft, economy slowing on a per capital basis, Aussie banks push ahead of NZ banks in scam fight, auditors improving, NZD steady
24th Nov 23, 3:58pm
10
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; 3-party govt detailed, retail sales soft, economy slowing on a per capital basis, Aussie banks push ahead of NZ banks in scam fight, auditors improving, NZD steady
European bond yields push higher from stronger than expected PMIs, hawkish ECB commentary and prospect of increased German bond supply as the government looks to suspend the "debt brake". Other markets quiet
24th Nov 23, 7:50am
European bond yields push higher from stronger than expected PMIs, hawkish ECB commentary and prospect of increased German bond supply as the government looks to suspend the "debt brake". Other markets quiet
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; spring housing market lackluster, wages up, Tower soggy, EU-NZ FTA up-voted, another strong bond tender. swaps up, NZD on hold, & more
23rd Nov 23, 4:00pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; spring housing market lackluster, wages up, Tower soggy, EU-NZ FTA up-voted, another strong bond tender. swaps up, NZD on hold, & more
US data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines. The data also gives the USD some broad support. Oil prices lower as OPEC+ squabbles over future production levels
23rd Nov 23, 7:47am
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US data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines. The data also gives the USD some broad support. Oil prices lower as OPEC+ squabbles over future production levels
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; one retail rate change, dairy price variances, card transactions lackluster, Air NZ upgraded, swaps stable, NZ on hold, & more
22nd Nov 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; one retail rate change, dairy price variances, card transactions lackluster, Air NZ upgraded, swaps stable, NZ on hold, & more
Stronger Asian currencies means the USD/JPY breaks below 148, playing catch-up to recent fall in US rates. US 10-year rate consolidates near 4.4%
22nd Nov 23, 7:53am
Stronger Asian currencies means the USD/JPY breaks below 148, playing catch-up to recent fall in US rates. US 10-year rate consolidates near 4.4%
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; trade levels shrink, farmers buy fewer tractors, eyes on dairy auction, credit card use limp, swaps stable, NZD firm, & more
21st Nov 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; trade levels shrink, farmers buy fewer tractors, eyes on dairy auction, credit card use limp, swaps stable, NZD firm, & more