NZD
Fed's Bostic joins Waller: Fed rate cuts likely to commence in early 2H-24. ECB minutes and GC member speeches push back against market pricing. Aussie jobs numbers deliver large downside miss on headline growth
19th Jan 24, 9:13am
Fed's Bostic joins Waller: Fed rate cuts likely to commence in early 2H-24. ECB minutes and GC member speeches push back against market pricing. Aussie jobs numbers deliver large downside miss on headline growth
US PPI, softer than expected, yields and dollar softer in early US trade. Risk mood sours through US trade following US/UK Middle East offensives. Range trading prevails, market awaits further data to aid central bank rate cut calls
15th Jan 24, 9:16am
US PPI, softer than expected, yields and dollar softer in early US trade. Risk mood sours through US trade following US/UK Middle East offensives. Range trading prevails, market awaits further data to aid central bank rate cut calls
US December CPI stronger than expected with core inflation at 3.9%, headline 3.4%. Immediate reaction: risk assets sell-off, 10-yr yield ascends back through 4%. Losses pared through second half of US trade implying CPI beat expected
12th Jan 24, 8:46am
US December CPI stronger than expected with core inflation at 3.9%, headline 3.4%. Immediate reaction: risk assets sell-off, 10-yr yield ascends back through 4%. Losses pared through second half of US trade implying CPI beat expected
US 10-yr yield reclaims territory above 4% as dovish outlook reconsidered. Australian monthly CPI falls from 4.9% to 4.3%; RBA to remain on hold in February
11th Jan 24, 9:29am
US 10-yr yield reclaims territory above 4% as dovish outlook reconsidered. Australian monthly CPI falls from 4.9% to 4.3%; RBA to remain on hold in February
US yields & the dollar spike higher on Fed's Williams comments, then reverse. Eurozone PMIs softer-than-expected, EUR worst performer amongst the G10
18th Dec 23, 9:55am
US yields & the dollar spike higher on Fed's Williams comments, then reverse. Eurozone PMIs softer-than-expected, EUR worst performer amongst the G10
BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis on the NZ economy 'bouncing along the bottom' and what to expect in 2024
17th Dec 23, 7:00am
129
BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis on the NZ economy 'bouncing along the bottom' and what to expect in 2024
US treasury yield & the dollar retreat continues; 10-year yield sub-4%. Fed's surprising dovish pivot could usher in prolonged dollar weakness. BoE/ECB deliver no change. Strong Aussie jobs growth & record participation rate; RBA not done?
15th Dec 23, 8:37am
US treasury yield & the dollar retreat continues; 10-year yield sub-4%. Fed's surprising dovish pivot could usher in prolonged dollar weakness. BoE/ECB deliver no change. Strong Aussie jobs growth & record participation rate; RBA not done?
Fed maintains 5.25% - 5.50% target rate; delivers dovish dot plots/SEPs. Powell refrains from pushing back against easing financial conditions. Greenlight provided for year-end risk rally as Fed-psyche more dovish
14th Dec 23, 9:49am
1
Fed maintains 5.25% - 5.50% target rate; delivers dovish dot plots/SEPs. Powell refrains from pushing back against easing financial conditions. Greenlight provided for year-end risk rally as Fed-psyche more dovish
Following volatility spike after US CPI release, markets settle to remain in prevailing ranges. CPI data does not alter expectations for path of Fed policy in 2024
13th Dec 23, 8:30am
Following volatility spike after US CPI release, markets settle to remain in prevailing ranges. CPI data does not alter expectations for path of Fed policy in 2024
US CPI and FOMC decision are this week's major events. If US CPI comes in as expected, the focus will shift to the Fed's latest projections/dot plots. Meanwhile the NZD trades in a narrow range
12th Dec 23, 8:26am
US CPI and FOMC decision are this week's major events. If US CPI comes in as expected, the focus will shift to the Fed's latest projections/dot plots. Meanwhile the NZD trades in a narrow range
Market pares 2024 rate cut expectations following solid US job report - yields/US dollar bounce. A huge week ahead headlined by Fed decision; ECB & BoE also meet, NZ 3Q GDP the local headliner
11th Dec 23, 8:57am
Market pares 2024 rate cut expectations following solid US job report - yields/US dollar bounce. A huge week ahead headlined by Fed decision; ECB & BoE also meet, NZ 3Q GDP the local headliner
NZD consolidates gains. BoJ comments spark re-pricing frenzy, JPY takes flight. China trade data indicative of struggling economy, import volumes sluggish
8th Dec 23, 8:20am
NZD consolidates gains. BoJ comments spark re-pricing frenzy, JPY takes flight. China trade data indicative of struggling economy, import volumes sluggish
Chinese authorities defend yuan following Moody's outlook downgrade. Soft US ADP Employment change. Australian economic growth eases to slowest pace in 12 months; Markets likely to enter into a holding pattern ahead of US non-farm jobs numbers
7th Dec 23, 8:34am
Chinese authorities defend yuan following Moody's outlook downgrade. Soft US ADP Employment change. Australian economic growth eases to slowest pace in 12 months; Markets likely to enter into a holding pattern ahead of US non-farm jobs numbers
Governor Adrian Orr explains what the Reserve Bank needs to see to have real confidence inflation pressures are easing off
5th Dec 23, 8:30am
43
Governor Adrian Orr explains what the Reserve Bank needs to see to have real confidence inflation pressures are easing off
US bond yields, dollar fall as Fed hawk Waller delivers dovish leaning speech. Australian nominal retail sales contracts for first time in 4 mths; RBA done?
29th Nov 23, 8:06am
1
US bond yields, dollar fall as Fed hawk Waller delivers dovish leaning speech. Australian nominal retail sales contracts for first time in 4 mths; RBA done?
US equities topside momentum slowing following eye-watering ascent. A December risk rally contingent on the outcome of upcoming US jobs/CPI data
28th Nov 23, 8:20am
US equities topside momentum slowing following eye-watering ascent. A December risk rally contingent on the outcome of upcoming US jobs/CPI data
Despite US treasury yield rebound, US dollar weaker against all major peers. DXY falls below 200d MA, on track for largest MoM decline in 12 months
27th Nov 23, 9:01am
Despite US treasury yield rebound, US dollar weaker against all major peers. DXY falls below 200d MA, on track for largest MoM decline in 12 months
NZD consolidates above 60 US cents, meets resistance in 0.6060's. Subdued trade given US equity & bond markets closed for Thanksgiving. Eurozone and UK PMIs beat expectations suggesting mild recessions likely
24th Nov 23, 7:46am
NZD consolidates above 60 US cents, meets resistance in 0.6060's. Subdued trade given US equity & bond markets closed for Thanksgiving. Eurozone and UK PMIs beat expectations suggesting mild recessions likely
US bond yields and dollar higher following strong weekly jobless claims. Mich Consumer Sentiment survey: 1-yr inflation expectations at 7mth high. Equities up, yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar up
23rd Nov 23, 8:13am
US bond yields and dollar higher following strong weekly jobless claims. Mich Consumer Sentiment survey: 1-yr inflation expectations at 7mth high. Equities up, yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar up
Market has concluded the Fed is done, soft landing the likely outcome. Risk sensitive assets consolidate US CPI induced gains; further gains ahead?
20th Nov 23, 9:19am
Market has concluded the Fed is done, soft landing the likely outcome. Risk sensitive assets consolidate US CPI induced gains; further gains ahead?
RBNZ's foreign currency intervention capacity likely to grow significantly, Westpac NZ's Kelly Eckhold says
19th Nov 23, 6:00am
16
RBNZ's foreign currency intervention capacity likely to grow significantly, Westpac NZ's Kelly Eckhold says
Softer headline & core US CPI validates peak rate calls; Fed looks to be done. US bond yields sink, 10-yr plunges below 4.50%. Risk on: US equity markets rocket higher
15th Nov 23, 8:31am
3
Softer headline & core US CPI validates peak rate calls; Fed looks to be done. US bond yields sink, 10-yr plunges below 4.50%. Risk on: US equity markets rocket higher
[updated]
Assistant Governor Karen Silk says no clear answer to the question of what the right level of foreign currency reserves the RBNZ should hold is
14th Nov 23, 1:23pm
14
Assistant Governor Karen Silk says no clear answer to the question of what the right level of foreign currency reserves the RBNZ should hold is
Hushed start as the market slips into wait-and-see mode ahead of US CPI. US bond yields bounced late last week following ugly 30-year note auction
14th Nov 23, 7:49am
1
Hushed start as the market slips into wait-and-see mode ahead of US CPI. US bond yields bounced late last week following ugly 30-year note auction
Fed-speak: Barkin & Bostic lean dovish, mild downside bias for dollar. S&P500 attempting to achieve longest winning streak (9 days) since 2004. NZD meets resistance above 0.5950
10th Nov 23, 7:54am
4
Fed-speak: Barkin & Bostic lean dovish, mild downside bias for dollar. S&P500 attempting to achieve longest winning streak (9 days) since 2004. NZD meets resistance above 0.5950