NZD
Impressive macro US data flow continues via retail sales, PPI and claims. DXY pierces through major resistance at 105.00, USD dominance continues. ECB delivers dovish 25bps hike, signals tightening cycle may be done
15th Sep 23, 9:12am
Impressive macro US data flow continues via retail sales, PPI and claims. DXY pierces through major resistance at 105.00, USD dominance continues. ECB delivers dovish 25bps hike, signals tightening cycle may be done
Equities down, yields down, WTI crude up, gold down, US dollar up. UK jobs, wage inflation still hot. Bank of England expected to hike next week
13th Sep 23, 7:53am
Equities down, yields down, WTI crude up, gold down, US dollar up. UK jobs, wage inflation still hot. Bank of England expected to hike next week
Choppy, directionless trade continued, downside bias retained. US bond yields higher for the week following more strong macro data
11th Sep 23, 8:01am
Choppy, directionless trade continued, downside bias retained. US bond yields higher for the week following more strong macro data
US labour market tight. Weekly jobless claims falls to lowest level in 7 months. Immaculate disinflation vs the Phillips Curve: is this time different? History informs job losses required to return inflation to targeted levels
8th Sep 23, 8:05am
US labour market tight. Weekly jobless claims falls to lowest level in 7 months. Immaculate disinflation vs the Phillips Curve: is this time different? History informs job losses required to return inflation to targeted levels
Good news is bad news; strong ISM Services PMI propels US bond yields. Crude oil on a tear, advancing in 9 of 10 days, up 30% from late June lows. GBP lags as BoE Governor Bailey signals tightening cycle end is approaching
7th Sep 23, 8:00am
Good news is bad news; strong ISM Services PMI propels US bond yields. Crude oil on a tear, advancing in 9 of 10 days, up 30% from late June lows. GBP lags as BoE Governor Bailey signals tightening cycle end is approaching
US yields rebound inducing broad based USD strength. USD on track for 8th week of gains - longest winning streak in 10+ years
6th Sep 23, 8:39am
US yields rebound inducing broad based USD strength. USD on track for 8th week of gains - longest winning streak in 10+ years
A mixed US employment report initially induces risk-on price action. Positive vibes evaporate following stronger-than-expected ISM factory PMI. Market pricing dials back (50% to 40%) implied probability of a Fed November rate hike
4th Sep 23, 7:39am
A mixed US employment report initially induces risk-on price action. Positive vibes evaporate following stronger-than-expected ISM factory PMI. Market pricing dials back (50% to 40%) implied probability of a Fed November rate hike
Market slips into wait-and-see mode ahead of US jobs data; tight ranges trade. US PCE in line with expectation. Eurozone inflation in-line, still 2.5x above target. China PMIs not so bad; piecemeal stimulus measures may be lifting activity
1st Sep 23, 8:07am
Market slips into wait-and-see mode ahead of US jobs data; tight ranges trade. US PCE in line with expectation. Eurozone inflation in-line, still 2.5x above target. China PMIs not so bad; piecemeal stimulus measures may be lifting activity
Falling US bond yields and a softer dollar has been the storyline for this week. ADP employment change falls to 5 month low; US labour market cooling. AUS monthly CPI falls to below 5% to 17 mth low; RBA looking done
31st Aug 23, 8:12am
Falling US bond yields and a softer dollar has been the storyline for this week. ADP employment change falls to 5 month low; US labour market cooling. AUS monthly CPI falls to below 5% to 17 mth low; RBA looking done
Risk sentiment improves: China announces more measures to restore confidence. CSI300 rips higher by over 5% but fails to maintain gains as foreign sellers take advantage to quit
29th Aug 23, 8:30am
Risk sentiment improves: China announces more measures to restore confidence. CSI300 rips higher by over 5% but fails to maintain gains as foreign sellers take advantage to quit
Equities down, yields down, WTI crude down, gold up, US dollar mixed. USDCNY 7.3 level holds as Chinese authorities continue to defend the yuan. US treasuries mixed: short end firms, long dated yields ease from recent highs
23rd Aug 23, 8:03am
Equities down, yields down, WTI crude down, gold up, US dollar mixed. USDCNY 7.3 level holds as Chinese authorities continue to defend the yuan. US treasuries mixed: short end firms, long dated yields ease from recent highs
Risk sentiment improves through US trade as dip-buyers cautiously re-enter. PBoC cut the 1-yr LPR less than expected, refrains from cutting the 5-yr LPR. Yuan continues to struggle
22nd Aug 23, 8:35am
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Risk sentiment improves through US trade as dip-buyers cautiously re-enter. PBoC cut the 1-yr LPR less than expected, refrains from cutting the 5-yr LPR. Yuan continues to struggle
Chinese authorities set strong daily fixing, defending key USDCNY 7.3 level. US ten-year yield remains near 16-yr highs, pulls back from 4.33%. Equities down, WTI crude up, gold flat, US dollar mixed
21st Aug 23, 9:25am
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Chinese authorities set strong daily fixing, defending key USDCNY 7.3 level. US ten-year yield remains near 16-yr highs, pulls back from 4.33%. Equities down, WTI crude up, gold flat, US dollar mixed
Global bond yields march higher, US 10-yr yield approaching 16 year highs. Strong data flow & higher treasury yields require higher central bank rates. Soft Aussie jobs report locks in a September RBA hold
18th Aug 23, 7:47am
Global bond yields march higher, US 10-yr yield approaching 16 year highs. Strong data flow & higher treasury yields require higher central bank rates. Soft Aussie jobs report locks in a September RBA hold
China woes intensify, onshore yuan approaches 16 year lows vs the dollar. Risk sentiment continues to erode as US bond yields near cycle highs
17th Aug 23, 8:17am
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China woes intensify, onshore yuan approaches 16 year lows vs the dollar. Risk sentiment continues to erode as US bond yields near cycle highs
US equities continue orderly pullback from 16mth highs; is the rally done? China's CPI & PPI both in deflationary territory for the first time since late 2020
10th Aug 23, 8:14am
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US equities continue orderly pullback from 16mth highs; is the rally done? China's CPI & PPI both in deflationary territory for the first time since late 2020
Poor trade data adds to China's economic woes, NZD & AUD pummelled. Market nerves frayed as Moody's announces downgrades. Italian bank tax unsettles investors
9th Aug 23, 8:00am
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Poor trade data adds to China's economic woes, NZD & AUD pummelled. Market nerves frayed as Moody's announces downgrades. Italian bank tax unsettles investors
US bond yields firmer, 10-yr through 4%, 2-yr nearing 5%, dollar stronger. JOLTS job openings falls to a 2+ year low, but US firms retain workers. RBA keeps the cash rate on hold for a second month but may not be done
2nd Aug 23, 7:52am
US bond yields firmer, 10-yr through 4%, 2-yr nearing 5%, dollar stronger. JOLTS job openings falls to a 2+ year low, but US firms retain workers. RBA keeps the cash rate on hold for a second month but may not be done
Bond yields fall as US core PCE surprises to the downside, falling from 4.6% to 4.1%. US equities bounce back following Thursday's BoJ induced declines
31st Jul 23, 9:44am
Bond yields fall as US core PCE surprises to the downside, falling from 4.6% to 4.1%. US equities bounce back following Thursday's BoJ induced declines
US GDP, weekly claims, durable goods, pending home sales deliver beats. Yields and the US dollar rebound. ECB delivers widely expected 25bps hike; Lagarde non-committal to more
28th Jul 23, 8:40am
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US GDP, weekly claims, durable goods, pending home sales deliver beats. Yields and the US dollar rebound. ECB delivers widely expected 25bps hike; Lagarde non-committal to more
PMIs continue trend of cooling activity in manufacturing & service sectors. Tight snap Spanish election result weighs on EUR
25th Jul 23, 7:56am
PMIs continue trend of cooling activity in manufacturing & service sectors. Tight snap Spanish election result weighs on EUR
US dollar defies popular opinion, ends the week stronger vs all majors. US equities reach higher, S&P500 now within 5% of all-time highs
24th Jul 23, 8:03am
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US dollar defies popular opinion, ends the week stronger vs all majors. US equities reach higher, S&P500 now within 5% of all-time highs
Tesla & Netflix earnings misses fuel tech stock sell-off ... more to come? US weekly jobless claims fall to 2-month low, increasing odds of more Fed hikes
21st Jul 23, 8:07am
Tesla & Netflix earnings misses fuel tech stock sell-off ... more to come? US weekly jobless claims fall to 2-month low, increasing odds of more Fed hikes
Upbeat earnings from major US banks drive US stocks to fresh 15-mth highs, yields mixed, WTI crude up, gold up, dollar mixed. RBA minutes acknowledge additional tightening may be required
19th Jul 23, 7:59am
Upbeat earnings from major US banks drive US stocks to fresh 15-mth highs, yields mixed, WTI crude up, gold up, dollar mixed. RBA minutes acknowledge additional tightening may be required
NZD retreats from 4-mth highs following mammoth 2-day rally. Disinflation trade the order of play following downside CPI and PPI misses
17th Jul 23, 9:29am
NZD retreats from 4-mth highs following mammoth 2-day rally. Disinflation trade the order of play following downside CPI and PPI misses