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NZD

NZD logs modest gain to start the new week. US ISM manufacturing falls for 8th month, further into recessionary territory. Subdued price action expected in offshore trade
4th Jul 23, 8:06am
NZD logs modest gain to start the new week. US ISM manufacturing falls for 8th month, further into recessionary territory. Subdued price action expected in offshore trade
Nasdaq logs best first half in over 40 years, gaining close to 40% on AI frenzy. Fed's preferred inflation measure, PCE softer-than expected but still elevated. Eurozone inflation also softer
3rd Jul 23, 8:02am
Nasdaq logs best first half in over 40 years, gaining close to 40% on AI frenzy. Fed's preferred inflation measure, PCE softer-than expected but still elevated. Eurozone inflation also softer
Strong US GDP and claims data catapults US bond yields, 2-yr tracking to 5%. Market participants weighing up economic resiliency vs central bank aggression
30th Jun 23, 8:15am
Strong US GDP and claims data catapults US bond yields, 2-yr tracking to 5%. Market participants weighing up economic resiliency vs central bank aggression
China steps in to defend USDCNY 7.25 level via aggressive fixing. Risk sentiment improves amid the release of strong US data. Equities up, bond yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar down
28th Jun 23, 7:56am
China steps in to defend USDCNY 7.25 level via aggressive fixing. Risk sentiment improves amid the release of strong US data. Equities up, bond yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar down
Markets trade with a cautious tone, awaiting more key inflation data. Equities down, bond yields down, crude up, US dollar down. NZD finds support and improves in subdued trade
27th Jun 23, 8:14am
Markets trade with a cautious tone, awaiting more key inflation data. Equities down, bond yields down, crude up, US dollar down. NZD finds support and improves in subdued trade
Soft PMIs: manufacturing contracts further, services growth slowing. US equity markets end their winning streak amid sentiment shift. NZD extends lower
26th Jun 23, 9:51am
Soft PMIs: manufacturing contracts further, services growth slowing. US equity markets end their winning streak amid sentiment shift. NZD extends lower
A flurry of central bank activity ensues to counter recent hot inflation reads. Bank of England and Norges Bank deliver non-consensus 50bps hikes
23rd Jun 23, 8:01am
A flurry of central bank activity ensues to counter recent hot inflation reads. Bank of England and Norges Bank deliver non-consensus 50bps hikes
Powell's 2-day testimony kicks-off, hawkish comments persist - more hikes. US equity markets dismiss Fed hawkishness, recover early session losses. US bond yields and the dollar fall although risk rally appears to be faltering
22nd Jun 23, 7:50am
Powell's 2-day testimony kicks-off, hawkish comments persist - more hikes. US equity markets dismiss Fed hawkishness, recover early session losses. US bond yields and the dollar fall although risk rally appears to be faltering
Further China stimulus fails to boost risk sentiment, NZD & AUD struggle. US equity bulls may be exhausted, quarter-end profit taking emerging
21st Jun 23, 7:57am
Further China stimulus fails to boost risk sentiment, NZD & AUD struggle. US equity bulls may be exhausted, quarter-end profit taking emerging
Following the Q2-2023 risk rally mean reversion may be the trade heading into Q3-2023. Risk assets flash exhaustion signals ascending into overbought territory
20th Jun 23, 8:45am
Following the Q2-2023 risk rally mean reversion may be the trade heading into Q3-2023. Risk assets flash exhaustion signals ascending into overbought territory
US stocks log modest losses but Nasdaq extends winning streak to 8th week. Not too hot, not too cold data-flow & Fed expectations drive key stocks higher
19th Jun 23, 7:49am
US stocks log modest losses but Nasdaq extends winning streak to 8th week. Not too hot, not too cold data-flow & Fed expectations drive key stocks higher
Fed on hold but with hawkish dot-plots: 12 of 18 FOMC officials call for at least 2 more hikes. US equities and risk assets initially sell-off then recover after Powell's presser
15th Jun 23, 9:39am
Fed on hold but with hawkish dot-plots: 12 of 18 FOMC officials call for at least 2 more hikes. US equities and risk assets initially sell-off then recover after Powell's presser
US CPI broadly in-line, core inflation rises at slowest rate since November 2021. Implied probability of Fed 25bps hike falls from 20%+ to ~5%. A hot UK employment report locks in BoE hikes, 5%+ rate expected
14th Jun 23, 8:34am
US CPI broadly in-line, core inflation rises at slowest rate since November 2021. Implied probability of Fed 25bps hike falls from 20%+ to ~5%. A hot UK employment report locks in BoE hikes, 5%+ rate expected
Risk sentiment positive ahead of pivotal events, US equities extend higher. Market pricing assigns a ~25% implied probability of Fed hike on Thursday
13th Jun 23, 9:42am
Risk sentiment positive ahead of pivotal events, US equities extend higher. Market pricing assigns a ~25% implied probability of Fed hike on Thursday
Nasdaq logs 7th consecutive week of gains, S&P500 fourth straight. Expectations of a Fed pause/skip & AI frenzy emboldens stock bulls
12th Jun 23, 8:32am
Nasdaq logs 7th consecutive week of gains, S&P500 fourth straight. Expectations of a Fed pause/skip & AI frenzy emboldens stock bulls
Weekly US initial jobless claims data spikes to a 20-month high, US dollar softer. Yields decline, tech stocks rally, as market dials back Fed hike expectations. Eurozone economy slips into a technical recession on weak GDP print
9th Jun 23, 7:52am
Weekly US initial jobless claims data spikes to a 20-month high, US dollar softer. Yields decline, tech stocks rally, as market dials back Fed hike expectations. Eurozone economy slips into a technical recession on weak GDP print
Fed officials & Timiraos signal the Fed “skip”. Rates likely on hold on 14 June. US ISM Manufacturing PMI contractionary for seventh consecutive month. Eurozone CPI delivers encouraging downside miss. ECB remains hawkish
2nd Jun 23, 8:11am
Fed officials & Timiraos signal the Fed “skip”. Rates likely on hold on 14 June. US ISM Manufacturing PMI contractionary for seventh consecutive month. Eurozone CPI delivers encouraging downside miss. ECB remains hawkish
China PMIs disappoint, manufacturing falling to its lowest level in 5 months. US debt ceiling deal to be voted on in the House after market close. USD firmer via safe haven flows, strong JOLTS data, hawkish Fed-speak
1st Jun 23, 8:00am
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China PMIs disappoint, manufacturing falling to its lowest level in 5 months. US debt ceiling deal to be voted on in the House after market close. USD firmer via safe haven flows, strong JOLTS data, hawkish Fed-speak
US PCE prints stronger than expected probability of a Fed hike above 60%. And US debt ceiling deal agreed; next step is to pass legislation through Congress
29th May 23, 8:20am
US PCE prints stronger than expected probability of a Fed hike above 60%. And US debt ceiling deal agreed; next step is to pass legislation through Congress
RBNZ shocks with dovish hike; sudden declaration of cycle-end at 5.50%. Risk sentiment continues to deteriorate as debt ceiling impasse draws on. UK CPI shocker - core CPI climbing to new cycle high; BoE must hike more
25th May 23, 8:08am
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RBNZ shocks with dovish hike; sudden declaration of cycle-end at 5.50%. Risk sentiment continues to deteriorate as debt ceiling impasse draws on. UK CPI shocker - core CPI climbing to new cycle high; BoE must hike more
Stalling US debt ceiling negotiations fray the market’s nerves, risk assets retreat. PMI’s indicate further divergence between manufacturing & services activity
24th May 23, 8:47am
Stalling US debt ceiling negotiations fray the market’s nerves, risk assets retreat. PMI’s indicate further divergence between manufacturing & services activity
Biden & McCarthy to meet this morning. Markets remain sanguine but volatility could spike should debt ceiling talks stall. Bar has been set high for RBNZ surprise following last week’s rates repricing
23rd May 23, 8:00am
Biden & McCarthy to meet this morning. Markets remain sanguine but volatility could spike should debt ceiling talks stall. Bar has been set high for RBNZ surprise following last week’s rates repricing
Debt ceiling negotiations stall as Biden attends G7 summit, resumes Monday. Fed chair Powell less hawkish than Fed colleagues, inflation still too high
22nd May 23, 8:16am
Debt ceiling negotiations stall as Biden attends G7 summit, resumes Monday. Fed chair Powell less hawkish than Fed colleagues, inflation still too high
Risk sentiment positive on improving debt ceiling narrative, equities climb. Hawkish Fed-speak supports higher bond yields and a higher US dollar. Market re-thinking the probability of a Fed pause; odds for 25bps growing
19th May 23, 7:58am
Risk sentiment positive on improving debt ceiling narrative, equities climb. Hawkish Fed-speak supports higher bond yields and a higher US dollar. Market re-thinking the probability of a Fed pause; odds for 25bps growing
Plans put in place to facilitate US debt ceiling deal. Biden cuts short foreign travel plans. Risk assets rally, S&P500 nears important re-test level, Nasdaq at 9mth high
18th May 23, 7:57am
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Plans put in place to facilitate US debt ceiling deal. Biden cuts short foreign travel plans. Risk assets rally, S&P500 nears important re-test level, Nasdaq at 9mth high