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OCR

Economic data in the coming week is likely to show inflation is slowing. But the key thing will be whether the Reserve Bank is satisfied that the inflation beast really has been properly tamed - or whether we still have things to worry about
21st Jan 24, 6:00am
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Economic data in the coming week is likely to show inflation is slowing. But the key thing will be whether the Reserve Bank is satisfied that the inflation beast really has been properly tamed - or whether we still have things to worry about
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
19th Jan 24, 7:48am
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
ANZ economists don't believe the RBNZ will give warning of when it is going to cut the Official Cash Rate and that it will be a case of 'deny-deny-deny-cut' to avoid premature easing in financial conditions
18th Jan 24, 4:08pm
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ANZ economists don't believe the RBNZ will give warning of when it is going to cut the Official Cash Rate and that it will be a case of 'deny-deny-deny-cut' to avoid premature easing in financial conditions
[updated]
Stats NZ says food prices fell in December for the fourth consecutive month, taking the annual rate of food price inflation down to 4.8% compared with the peak level of 12.5% seen earlier in 2023; airfares skyrocket; rents keep pushing up
18th Jan 24, 11:01am
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Stats NZ says food prices fell in December for the fourth consecutive month, taking the annual rate of food price inflation down to 4.8% compared with the peak level of 12.5% seen earlier in 2023; airfares skyrocket; rents keep pushing up
Global equites fell and bond yields moved higher as investors trimmed expectations for rate cuts by major central banks. US retail sales were higher than consensus estimates. 2-year treasury yields increased 15bps supporting the US dollar
18th Jan 24, 8:01am
Global equites fell and bond yields moved higher as investors trimmed expectations for rate cuts by major central banks. US retail sales were higher than consensus estimates. 2-year treasury yields increased 15bps supporting the US dollar
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
17th Jan 24, 7:47am
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
The Reserve Bank's chief economist will be speaking on economic developments a month before the first scheduled OCR announcement for the year in a move clearly aimed at guiding the markets after December's shock GDP fall
16th Jan 24, 9:54am
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The Reserve Bank's chief economist will be speaking on economic developments a month before the first scheduled OCR announcement for the year in a move clearly aimed at guiding the markets after December's shock GDP fall
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
16th Jan 24, 7:54am
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
ASB economists assess the key risks in the year ahead - there's plenty
15th Jan 24, 2:10pm
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ASB economists assess the key risks in the year ahead - there's plenty
Softer than expected US producer prices support rally in global bonds. US 2-year treasury yields reached the lowest level since May. Weak inflation pressures and subdued demand for credit support the case for lower policy rates in China
15th Jan 24, 7:46am
Softer than expected US producer prices support rally in global bonds. US 2-year treasury yields reached the lowest level since May. Weak inflation pressures and subdued demand for credit support the case for lower policy rates in China
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says the last five yards of the inflation battle are going to be tough
20th Dec 23, 10:44am
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Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says the last five yards of the inflation battle are going to be tough
Economists from ASB say momentum in the economy is grinding to a halt, meaning the Reserve Bank can cut the OCR sooner than they thought
20th Dec 23, 9:51am
21
Economists from ASB say momentum in the economy is grinding to a halt, meaning the Reserve Bank can cut the OCR sooner than they thought
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
19th Dec 23, 7:51am
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says it now looks more likely the Official Cash Rate will be cut in the second half of next year - rather than in 2025
18th Dec 23, 2:28pm
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ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says it now looks more likely the Official Cash Rate will be cut in the second half of next year - rather than in 2025
US policy makers push back against speculation of near-term rate cuts by the Fed. ‘We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now’. European economic activity weak. German bund yields dropped to lowest level since January
18th Dec 23, 7:37am
US policy makers push back against speculation of near-term rate cuts by the Fed. ‘We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now’. European economic activity weak. German bund yields dropped to lowest level since January
BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis on the NZ economy 'bouncing along the bottom' and what to expect in 2024
17th Dec 23, 7:00am
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BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis on the NZ economy 'bouncing along the bottom' and what to expect in 2024
Markets have extended the post-FOMC moves. US treasury yields and the US dollar have declined further. But both the ECB and BofE left rates on hold and sounded cautious on the outlook
15th Dec 23, 7:52am
Markets have extended the post-FOMC moves. US treasury yields and the US dollar have declined further. But both the ECB and BofE left rates on hold and sounded cautious on the outlook
Weaker than expected US PPI, UK GDP and euro area industrial production data supports extended bond market rally. Domestic rates tumbled yesterday, some attributed to weaker pricing indicators
14th Dec 23, 7:52am
Weaker than expected US PPI, UK GDP and euro area industrial production data supports extended bond market rally. Domestic rates tumbled yesterday, some attributed to weaker pricing indicators
Stats NZ says food prices fell in November for the third consecutive month; domestic airfares and accommodation rose
13th Dec 23, 12:37pm
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Stats NZ says food prices fell in November for the third consecutive month; domestic airfares and accommodation rose
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
13th Dec 23, 7:57am
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
12th Dec 23, 7:45am
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
US labour market data was stronger than expected in November. US treasury yields increased and the US dollar gained snapping a 3-week loosing streak. China consumer price inflation fell 0.5%, the fastest decline in 3-years amid weak domestic demand
11th Dec 23, 7:43am
US labour market data was stronger than expected in November. US treasury yields increased and the US dollar gained snapping a 3-week loosing streak. China consumer price inflation fell 0.5%, the fastest decline in 3-years amid weak domestic demand
The yen has strengthened and JGB yields moved sharply higher following Bank of Japan signals of an exit from their large-scale stimulus and negative interest rates
8th Dec 23, 7:47am
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The yen has strengthened and JGB yields moved sharply higher following Bank of Japan signals of an exit from their large-scale stimulus and negative interest rates
ASB economists estimate that average household living costs will have increased by about $115 a week in 2023 - and with a further $70 hike to come next year, but income rises will probably beat that
7th Dec 23, 10:30am
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ASB economists estimate that average household living costs will have increased by about $115 a week in 2023 - and with a further $70 hike to come next year, but income rises will probably beat that
Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency
7th Dec 23, 7:52am
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Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency