OCR
Christopher Luxon’s Coalition Government wants to prove it's serious about inflation
3rd Dec 23, 6:00am
120
Christopher Luxon’s Coalition Government wants to prove it's serious about inflation
Wholesale interest rates have fallen since Wednesday when the RBNZ warned of another rate hike
1st Dec 23, 2:52pm
26
Wholesale interest rates have fallen since Wednesday when the RBNZ warned of another rate hike
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
1st Dec 23, 7:54am
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says there's limited headroom to absorb additional inflation surprises
30th Nov 23, 11:56am
22
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says there's limited headroom to absorb additional inflation surprises
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
30th Nov 23, 7:53am
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
The Reserve Bank says it is willing to raise rates to offset increased demand from population growth
30th Nov 23, 7:48am
21
The Reserve Bank says it is willing to raise rates to offset increased demand from population growth
[updated]
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
29th Nov 23, 2:20pm
93
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
29th Nov 23, 7:56am
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
ANZ Property Focus Report says housing market is weak, revises house price expectations down
28th Nov 23, 10:28am
139
ANZ Property Focus Report says housing market is weak, revises house price expectations down
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
28th Nov 23, 7:43am
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
The US dollar remains under pressure. NZD/USD ended last week at 3-month highs just below 0.6100 amid the broad US dollar weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
27th Nov 23, 7:32am
The US dollar remains under pressure. NZD/USD ended last week at 3-month highs just below 0.6100 amid the broad US dollar weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
David Hargreaves says in contrast to the position it was in a year ago, the Reserve Bank will need to make a 'do nothing' Official Cash Rate decision in the coming week in a sufficiently 'hawkish' way that keeps pressure on inflation over summer
26th Nov 23, 6:00am
64
David Hargreaves says in contrast to the position it was in a year ago, the Reserve Bank will need to make a 'do nothing' Official Cash Rate decision in the coming week in a sufficiently 'hawkish' way that keeps pressure on inflation over summer
European bond yields push higher from stronger than expected PMIs, hawkish ECB commentary and prospect of increased German bond supply as the government looks to suspend the "debt brake". Other markets quiet
24th Nov 23, 7:50am
European bond yields push higher from stronger than expected PMIs, hawkish ECB commentary and prospect of increased German bond supply as the government looks to suspend the "debt brake". Other markets quiet
David Cunningham examines the disparity between fixed and floating mortgage rates in New Zealand
23rd Nov 23, 9:06am
16
David Cunningham examines the disparity between fixed and floating mortgage rates in New Zealand
US data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines. The data also gives the USD some broad support. Oil prices lower as OPEC+ squabbles over future production levels
23rd Nov 23, 7:47am
1
US data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines. The data also gives the USD some broad support. Oil prices lower as OPEC+ squabbles over future production levels
Stronger Asian currencies means the USD/JPY breaks below 148, playing catch-up to recent fall in US rates. US 10-year rate consolidates near 4.4%
22nd Nov 23, 7:53am
Stronger Asian currencies means the USD/JPY breaks below 148, playing catch-up to recent fall in US rates. US 10-year rate consolidates near 4.4%
Global asset markets continue to consolidate recent moves in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Oil prices have continue to rally ahead of the Opec+ meeting on Sunday
21st Nov 23, 7:51am
1
Global asset markets continue to consolidate recent moves in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Oil prices have continue to rally ahead of the Opec+ meeting on Sunday
Oil prices recover from slump on news Saudi Arabia and others will extend supply cuts. USD weaker. 10-year US treasuries stable. UK Gilts outperformed following softer than expected UK retail sales
20th Nov 23, 7:28am
1
Oil prices recover from slump on news Saudi Arabia and others will extend supply cuts. USD weaker. 10-year US treasuries stable. UK Gilts outperformed following softer than expected UK retail sales
ANZ’s chief economist Sharon Zollner no longer expects the Reserve Bank to increase the Official Cash Rate above its current 5.50%
17th Nov 23, 2:03pm
20
ANZ’s chief economist Sharon Zollner no longer expects the Reserve Bank to increase the Official Cash Rate above its current 5.50%
US Treasury yields are lower, following a series of weaker US economic indicators. Oil prices plunge close to 5%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, seeing NZ-US 10-year spread down to 48bps; NZ 2-year swap continues to push lower
17th Nov 23, 7:43am
US Treasury yields are lower, following a series of weaker US economic indicators. Oil prices plunge close to 5%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, seeing NZ-US 10-year spread down to 48bps; NZ 2-year swap continues to push lower
Kiwibank economists say households are showing few signs of financial stress in the face of higher interest rates, but 'a lot hinges on the labour market'
16th Nov 23, 1:03pm
61
Kiwibank economists say households are showing few signs of financial stress in the face of higher interest rates, but 'a lot hinges on the labour market'
US Treasuries reverse course, with 10-year rate up 10bps on the day following yesterdays 19bps drop. US data consistent with soft landing, disinflationary narrative; retail sales soft but better than expected, while PPI much weaker than expected
16th Nov 23, 7:54am
1
US Treasuries reverse course, with 10-year rate up 10bps on the day following yesterdays 19bps drop. US data consistent with soft landing, disinflationary narrative; retail sales soft but better than expected, while PPI much weaker than expected
A quarterly survey for the Reserve Bank shows that households' views on the likely rate of inflation in a year are unchanged from the previous survey, but they see stronger house prices
15th Nov 23, 3:45pm
3
A quarterly survey for the Reserve Bank shows that households' views on the likely rate of inflation in a year are unchanged from the previous survey, but they see stronger house prices
[updated]
Economists are reviewing their inflation and interest rate forecasts after new Stats NZ pricing information suggests the rate of inflation in the current quarter may be slower than expected
15th Nov 23, 8:24am
60
Economists are reviewing their inflation and interest rate forecasts after new Stats NZ pricing information suggests the rate of inflation in the current quarter may be slower than expected
There were large moves across global markets as US CPI came in below consensus expectations, suggesting the US Fed hiking cycle is complete and the next move will be a cut in 2024. Equity markets made strong gains while UST yields fell
15th Nov 23, 7:36am
There were large moves across global markets as US CPI came in below consensus expectations, suggesting the US Fed hiking cycle is complete and the next move will be a cut in 2024. Equity markets made strong gains while UST yields fell