OCR
A quarterly survey for the Reserve Bank shows that households' views on the likely rate of inflation in a year are unchanged from the previous survey, but they see stronger house prices
15th Nov 23, 3:45pm
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A quarterly survey for the Reserve Bank shows that households' views on the likely rate of inflation in a year are unchanged from the previous survey, but they see stronger house prices
[updated]
Economists are reviewing their inflation and interest rate forecasts after new Stats NZ pricing information suggests the rate of inflation in the current quarter may be slower than expected
15th Nov 23, 8:24am
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Economists are reviewing their inflation and interest rate forecasts after new Stats NZ pricing information suggests the rate of inflation in the current quarter may be slower than expected
There were large moves across global markets as US CPI came in below consensus expectations, suggesting the US Fed hiking cycle is complete and the next move will be a cut in 2024. Equity markets made strong gains while UST yields fell
15th Nov 23, 7:36am
There were large moves across global markets as US CPI came in below consensus expectations, suggesting the US Fed hiking cycle is complete and the next move will be a cut in 2024. Equity markets made strong gains while UST yields fell
[updated]
Stats NZ says food prices 'fell across the board in October'; Stats NZ has also released a new monthly series of pricing data to give more timely inflation information; airfares now dropping quickly, rents still rising, tobacco up sharply
14th Nov 23, 11:07am
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Stats NZ says food prices 'fell across the board in October'; Stats NZ has also released a new monthly series of pricing data to give more timely inflation information; airfares now dropping quickly, rents still rising, tobacco up sharply
Market movements modest ahead of tonight’s key US CPI release, with little net change in US equities and Treasury yields; modest currency changes
14th Nov 23, 7:55am
Market movements modest ahead of tonight’s key US CPI release, with little net change in US equities and Treasury yields; modest currency changes
US equities extended the recent rally despite weak consumer sentiment data and cautious comments Fed Chair Powell. Moody’s lowered its outlook on the US’s credit rating to negative from stable
13th Nov 23, 7:23am
US equities extended the recent rally despite weak consumer sentiment data and cautious comments Fed Chair Powell. Moody’s lowered its outlook on the US’s credit rating to negative from stable
Hawkish forecasters think rates need to go higher-for-longer, while dovish economists think the RBNZ may have already overcooked the chook
12th Nov 23, 6:00am
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Hawkish forecasters think rates need to go higher-for-longer, while dovish economists think the RBNZ may have already overcooked the chook
US 10-year rate up 9bps from the NZ close to 4.57%, after trading as low as 4.47%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, taking the fall for the month to 55bps for the 10-year
10th Nov 23, 7:47am
US 10-year rate up 9bps from the NZ close to 4.57%, after trading as low as 4.47%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, taking the fall for the month to 55bps for the 10-year
Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
9th Nov 23, 9:07am
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Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
Oil prices show the largest moves; Brent crude down over 2% to go sub-USD80 per barrel. NZ rates follow prior offshore moves to close at fresh multi-week/month lows
9th Nov 23, 8:03am
Oil prices show the largest moves; Brent crude down over 2% to go sub-USD80 per barrel. NZ rates follow prior offshore moves to close at fresh multi-week/month lows
Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
8th Nov 23, 3:51pm
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Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
Oil prices have fallen close to 3%, to the lowest level in more than 3 months, on concerns about global growth following weak Chinese trade data. US officials emphasised the need to bring inflation closer to 2%
8th Nov 23, 7:55am
Oil prices have fallen close to 3%, to the lowest level in more than 3 months, on concerns about global growth following weak Chinese trade data. US officials emphasised the need to bring inflation closer to 2%
ANZ economists are still forecasting another Official Cash Rate hike next year and say domestic inflation is still sky high, and yet to capitulate, while 'a lot still needs to go right' for the OCR to not need to eventually go higher
7th Nov 23, 1:40pm
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ANZ economists are still forecasting another Official Cash Rate hike next year and say domestic inflation is still sky high, and yet to capitulate, while 'a lot still needs to go right' for the OCR to not need to eventually go higher
US equities consolidate last week's hefty gains. US Treasury yields push higher, after last week's hefty fall. The RBA, the laggard of the global policy cycle, likely to hike
7th Nov 23, 7:40am
US equities consolidate last week's hefty gains. US Treasury yields push higher, after last week's hefty fall. The RBA, the laggard of the global policy cycle, likely to hike
Even though wholesale rates have turned down rather sharply in the past few days, BNZ has raised its one year TD offer above any other main bank
6th Nov 23, 9:26am
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Even though wholesale rates have turned down rather sharply in the past few days, BNZ has raised its one year TD offer above any other main bank
Weaker than expected US labour market data contributed to a rally across global bond markets boosting risk sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in October below estimates of 180k. The US ISM services PMI fell to a 5-month low
6th Nov 23, 7:52am
Weaker than expected US labour market data contributed to a rally across global bond markets boosting risk sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in October below estimates of 180k. The US ISM services PMI fell to a 5-month low
Just as the Reserve Bank appears to be turning the inflation battle in its favour, here comes the double trouble of rampant immigration and a refreshed housing market
5th Nov 23, 6:00am
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Just as the Reserve Bank appears to be turning the inflation battle in its favour, here comes the double trouble of rampant immigration and a refreshed housing market
Risk sensitive assets rise investors confident aggressive monetary tightening cycle is ending. The Bank of England left rates steady at 5.25% for the second consecutive month which was in line with expectations
3rd Nov 23, 8:00am
Risk sensitive assets rise investors confident aggressive monetary tightening cycle is ending. The Bank of England left rates steady at 5.25% for the second consecutive month which was in line with expectations
Market expectations of Official Cash Rate settings leaning towards cuts after the increase in unemployment this week
2nd Nov 23, 2:11pm
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Market expectations of Official Cash Rate settings leaning towards cuts after the increase in unemployment this week
US Fed leaves rates on hold for a second consecutive meeting. US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement notes intention to slow pace of longer term debt issuance which drives much lower Treasury yields, led by the long end
2nd Nov 23, 8:25am
US Fed leaves rates on hold for a second consecutive meeting. US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement notes intention to slow pace of longer term debt issuance which drives much lower Treasury yields, led by the long end
BoJ loosens grip on yield curve control policy. Despite that, the yen shows a notable decline. US employment cost index slightly higher than expected. Euro area data shows economic contraction in Q3 and weaker inflation
1st Nov 23, 7:48am
BoJ loosens grip on yield curve control policy. Despite that, the yen shows a notable decline. US employment cost index slightly higher than expected. Euro area data shows economic contraction in Q3 and weaker inflation
Latest RBNZ figures show just a small rise in overall non-performing housing loans in September - though separately there was a noteworthy rise in consumer borrowing
31st Oct 23, 4:26pm
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Latest RBNZ figures show just a small rise in overall non-performing housing loans in September - though separately there was a noteworthy rise in consumer borrowing
Risk appetite starts week on a positive note. Oil prices down 3%. Eyes on bank of Japan. US Treasury markets jittery
31st Oct 23, 7:46am
Risk appetite starts week on a positive note. Oil prices down 3%. Eyes on bank of Japan. US Treasury markets jittery
Global equities ended the week on a soft note with geopolitical risks and an underwhelming corporate earnings season undermining market sentiment. US core PCE deflator rose 3.7% annual rate in September
30th Oct 23, 7:32am
Global equities ended the week on a soft note with geopolitical risks and an underwhelming corporate earnings season undermining market sentiment. US core PCE deflator rose 3.7% annual rate in September
Investor risk sentiment remains fragile with global equities extending recent losses amid disappointing earnings from large US tech companies. The ECB held rates steady at 4% as expected. US GDP expanded at a healthy 4.9% annual rate in Q3
27th Oct 23, 7:48am
Investor risk sentiment remains fragile with global equities extending recent losses amid disappointing earnings from large US tech companies. The ECB held rates steady at 4% as expected. US GDP expanded at a healthy 4.9% annual rate in Q3