Unemployment
ASB economists estimate that average household living costs will have increased by about $115 a week in 2023 - and with a further $70 hike to come next year, but income rises will probably beat that
7th Dec 23, 10:30am
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ASB economists estimate that average household living costs will have increased by about $115 a week in 2023 - and with a further $70 hike to come next year, but income rises will probably beat that
Westpac economists say we should expect the Reserve Bank to be unforgiving of any shocks that boost the growth and inflation outlook over the next year. Also, the RBNZ will likely be less willing to pre-emptively ease, as markets seem to currently expect
4th Dec 23, 12:15pm
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Westpac economists say we should expect the Reserve Bank to be unforgiving of any shocks that boost the growth and inflation outlook over the next year. Also, the RBNZ will likely be less willing to pre-emptively ease, as markets seem to currently expect
In the second part of his preview of 2024, David Hargreaves examines whether a combination of new Government policies, rampant migration and an enlivened housing market could undermine efforts to get the economy on a sound footing
3rd Dec 23, 8:00am
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In the second part of his preview of 2024, David Hargreaves examines whether a combination of new Government policies, rampant migration and an enlivened housing market could undermine efforts to get the economy on a sound footing
David Hargreaves explains what he is looking for in the economy in 2024 as we wait to see if the battle against inflation really can be won
2nd Dec 23, 10:23am
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David Hargreaves explains what he is looking for in the economy in 2024 as we wait to see if the battle against inflation really can be won
David Hargreaves has a look at the economic developments in the past year and lines these up against what the expectations were at the start of the year
1st Dec 23, 9:44am
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David Hargreaves has a look at the economic developments in the past year and lines these up against what the expectations were at the start of the year
[updated]
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
29th Nov 23, 2:20pm
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Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
Kiwibank economists say households are showing few signs of financial stress in the face of higher interest rates, but 'a lot hinges on the labour market'
16th Nov 23, 1:03pm
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Kiwibank economists say households are showing few signs of financial stress in the face of higher interest rates, but 'a lot hinges on the labour market'
Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
9th Nov 23, 9:07am
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Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
8th Nov 23, 3:51pm
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Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
ANZ economists are still forecasting another Official Cash Rate hike next year and say domestic inflation is still sky high, and yet to capitulate, while 'a lot still needs to go right' for the OCR to not need to eventually go higher
7th Nov 23, 1:40pm
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ANZ economists are still forecasting another Official Cash Rate hike next year and say domestic inflation is still sky high, and yet to capitulate, while 'a lot still needs to go right' for the OCR to not need to eventually go higher
The economy is growing much slower than usual and unemployment is rising
Just as the Reserve Bank appears to be turning the inflation battle in its favour, here comes the double trouble of rampant immigration and a refreshed housing market
5th Nov 23, 6:00am
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Just as the Reserve Bank appears to be turning the inflation battle in its favour, here comes the double trouble of rampant immigration and a refreshed housing market
Change, along with death & taxes, is a certainty in life with none of us knowing exactly what's around the corner. So Gareth Vaughan's pleased to see at least one central banker is thinking about change
2nd Nov 23, 1:20pm
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Change, along with death & taxes, is a certainty in life with none of us knowing exactly what's around the corner. So Gareth Vaughan's pleased to see at least one central banker is thinking about change
The unemployment rate lifts to 3.9% from 3.6% while broader measures also weaken
1st Nov 23, 11:01am
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The unemployment rate lifts to 3.9% from 3.6% while broader measures also weaken
The Reserve Bank expects labour market figures out in the coming week to show a further rise in unemployment. As long as the central bank gets its wish then the Official Cash Rate will remain 'on hold' after the next review in November
29th Oct 23, 6:00am
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The Reserve Bank expects labour market figures out in the coming week to show a further rise in unemployment. As long as the central bank gets its wish then the Official Cash Rate will remain 'on hold' after the next review in November
Xero says small business sales are inconsistent across New Zealand, with some regions facing more challenging times than others
26th Oct 23, 5:00am
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Xero says small business sales are inconsistent across New Zealand, with some regions facing more challenging times than others
Interest rates: Monetary policy is always political as central banks opt to back the financial sector
12th Oct 23, 10:38am
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Interest rates: Monetary policy is always political as central banks opt to back the financial sector
The ACT Party says public sector job cuts can be quick and should not impact unemployment over 6 to 12 months
9th Oct 23, 4:50pm
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The ACT Party says public sector job cuts can be quick and should not impact unemployment over 6 to 12 months
More economists are seeing a likelihood that the Reserve Bank will not start cutting the Official Cash Rate till 2025
9th Oct 23, 2:36pm
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More economists are seeing a likelihood that the Reserve Bank will not start cutting the Official Cash Rate till 2025
Independent economic researchers Capital Economics say it is 'increasingly clear' monetary policy tightening is doing its work and the rate-hiking cycle is already over, with cuts coming next year
4th Oct 23, 11:21am
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Independent economic researchers Capital Economics say it is 'increasingly clear' monetary policy tightening is doing its work and the rate-hiking cycle is already over, with cuts coming next year
Economists are cheered by signs the Reserve Bank's monetary tightening is getting traction but caution that inflationary pressures are still strong
3rd Oct 23, 2:01pm
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Economists are cheered by signs the Reserve Bank's monetary tightening is getting traction but caution that inflationary pressures are still strong
The latest survey of business opinion from NZIER shows fewer firms are feeling negative
3rd Oct 23, 10:17am
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The latest survey of business opinion from NZIER shows fewer firms are feeling negative
The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index has turned negative for the first time in two-and-a-half years
27th Sep 23, 9:09am
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The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index has turned negative for the first time in two-and-a-half years
We asked twenty economists how they would define a recession in New Zealand
GDP figures to be released in the coming week will probably show something of a bounce back from two quarters of negative economic growth, but the overall picture isn't particularly rosy
17th Sep 23, 8:11am
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GDP figures to be released in the coming week will probably show something of a bounce back from two quarters of negative economic growth, but the overall picture isn't particularly rosy