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18th Mar 21, 7:48am
US yields and USD higher, equities lower pre FOMC announcement, but Fed delivers a very dovish missive. No rate hike until at least 2024 despite strong economy and above-target inflation. UST yields holds near highs
US yields and USD higher, equities lower pre FOMC announcement, but Fed delivers a very dovish missive. No rate hike until at least 2024 despite strong economy and above-target inflation. UST yields holds near highs
18th Mar 21, 7:48am
17th Mar 21, 7:57am
Quiet trading conditions ahead of tomorrow's FOMC announcement. Flat pricing across US equities, USTs and USD; NZD flat around 0.72. Markets unperturbed by softer US data. GDT dairy auction pricing falls back after stellar prior auction
Quiet trading conditions ahead of tomorrow's FOMC announcement. Flat pricing across US equities, USTs and USD; NZD flat around 0.72. Markets unperturbed by softer US data. GDT dairy auction pricing falls back after stellar prior auction
17th Mar 21, 7:57am
16th Mar 21, 7:45am
Markets quiet overnight. More European countries suspend use of AstraZeneca vaccine, but little market impact. NZD nudges back towards 72 cents, despite broadly stronger USD
Markets quiet overnight. More European countries suspend use of AstraZeneca vaccine, but little market impact. NZD nudges back towards 72 cents, despite broadly stronger USD
16th Mar 21, 7:45am
15th Mar 21, 8:46am
Roger J Kerr says the Aussie Government is decisive while our Government makes announcements about future announcements; an NZ win in the America's Cup won't necessarily spark a Kiwi dollar rally
Roger J Kerr says the Aussie Government is decisive while our Government makes announcements about future announcements; an NZ win in the America's Cup won't necessarily spark a Kiwi dollar rally
15th Mar 21, 8:46am
15th Mar 21, 7:52am
Bond yields lurch higher again - US 10-year closes the week at 1.625%. Equities reasonably resilient, although NASDAQ underperforms. USD stronger, NZD back below 0.72. Big week ahead - FOMC meeting and NZ Q4 GDP amongst the highlights
Bond yields lurch higher again - US 10-year closes the week at 1.625%. Equities reasonably resilient, although NASDAQ underperforms. USD stronger, NZD back below 0.72. Big week ahead - FOMC meeting and NZ Q4 GDP amongst the highlights
15th Mar 21, 7:52am
12th Mar 21, 7:44am
Big gains in equity markets again. US 10-year consolidates around 1.5%. ECB says it will front-load bond buying, but keeps QE program size unchanged. NZD moves above 0.72 amidst broad-based USD weakness
Big gains in equity markets again. US 10-year consolidates around 1.5%. ECB says it will front-load bond buying, but keeps QE program size unchanged. NZD moves above 0.72 amidst broad-based USD weakness
12th Mar 21, 7:44am
11th Mar 21, 7:54am
Soft US core CPI data supports bond and equity markets, softens USD. NZD touches 0,72 overnight. Dovish RBA yesterday helps drive NZ rates lower
Soft US core CPI data supports bond and equity markets, softens USD. NZD touches 0,72 overnight. Dovish RBA yesterday helps drive NZ rates lower
11th Mar 21, 7:54am
10th Mar 21, 7:55am
Market sentiment flips - big tech charges ahead, driving higher US equities. US 10-year rate pushes lower. OECD does a massive upgrade of world growth outlook. USD reverses course; NZD and AUD recover some lost ground. NZ economy flattening out
Market sentiment flips - big tech charges ahead, driving higher US equities. US 10-year rate pushes lower. OECD does a massive upgrade of world growth outlook. USD reverses course; NZD and AUD recover some lost ground. NZ economy flattening out
10th Mar 21, 7:55am
9th Mar 21, 7:44am
USD remains well supported as US 10-year rate consolidates around 1.60%. EM currencies struggling, as is the NZD. US and European equities start the week on a positive note
USD remains well supported as US 10-year rate consolidates around 1.60%. EM currencies struggling, as is the NZD. US and European equities start the week on a positive note
9th Mar 21, 7:44am
8th Mar 21, 8:27am
Roger J Kerr says forex investors and traders are focused on the US dollar and not keen to buy the NZ currency at such high levels
Roger J Kerr says forex investors and traders are focused on the US dollar and not keen to buy the NZ currency at such high levels
8th Mar 21, 8:27am
8th Mar 21, 7:44am
US nonfarm payrolls much stronger than expected. Yields initially spike higher, before reversing. Equities rebound strongly, USD appreciates again. NZD falls towards 0.71 before rebounding with equities
US nonfarm payrolls much stronger than expected. Yields initially spike higher, before reversing. Equities rebound strongly, USD appreciates again. NZD falls towards 0.71 before rebounding with equities
8th Mar 21, 7:44am
5th Mar 21, 7:55am
Bond market sell-off resumes, with US 10-year breaking back above 1.5%. Market seemingly disappointed Powell didn't push back more firmly on yield rise. Equities lower, USD higher. 10-year swap rate back to 2% as NZ tracks Aussie rates higher
Bond market sell-off resumes, with US 10-year breaking back above 1.5%. Market seemingly disappointed Powell didn't push back more firmly on yield rise. Equities lower, USD higher. 10-year swap rate back to 2% as NZ tracks Aussie rates higher
5th Mar 21, 7:55am
4th Mar 21, 7:54am
Bond market back in focus with chunky rises in rates across the board overnight. UK Budget, US inflation concern and ECB chatter in the mix. Currencies unperturbed, although AUD and NZD slip overnight
Bond market back in focus with chunky rises in rates across the board overnight. UK Budget, US inflation concern and ECB chatter in the mix. Currencies unperturbed, although AUD and NZD slip overnight
4th Mar 21, 7:54am
3rd Mar 21, 7:51am
GDT dairy auction shows booming prices. Little impact on NZD though, approaching 0.73 on a soft USD. US equities pull back. UST10s show little net change
GDT dairy auction shows booming prices. Little impact on NZD though, approaching 0.73 on a soft USD. US equities pull back. UST10s show little net change
3rd Mar 21, 7:51am
2nd Mar 21, 7:54am
Calmer conditions return to bond markets overnight encouraging equity investors to buy the dip. US ISM manufacturing positively surprises. RBA bond buying activity drives strong rally in rates and helps drag NZ rates lower. Commodity currencies outperform
Calmer conditions return to bond markets overnight encouraging equity investors to buy the dip. US ISM manufacturing positively surprises. RBA bond buying activity drives strong rally in rates and helps drag NZ rates lower. Commodity currencies outperform
2nd Mar 21, 7:54am
1st Mar 21, 8:14am
Roger J Kerr says the probability of a weaker NZ dollar has surged as US equity markets start to fall and long-term interest rates continue to climb
Roger J Kerr says the probability of a weaker NZ dollar has surged as US equity markets start to fall and long-term interest rates continue to climb
1st Mar 21, 8:14am
1st Mar 21, 7:54am
Volatility in bonds continues - global rates sharply lower. Risk-off moves on Friday - equities mostly lower, commodities fall, USD strengthens. NZD and AUD fall 2%. Auckland back in Level 3 lockdown for a week, which may temper OCR rate hike expectations
Volatility in bonds continues - global rates sharply lower. Risk-off moves on Friday - equities mostly lower, commodities fall, USD strengthens. NZD and AUD fall 2%. Auckland back in Level 3 lockdown for a week, which may temper OCR rate hike expectations
1st Mar 21, 7:54am
26th Feb 21, 8:01am
Huge moves (up) in bond yields again overnight putting pressure on equities, especially tech stocks. NZD hits new post-2018 high yesterday, above 0.7450, before slipping back. NZ 10-year swap hits 2% as market moves to price >50% chance of an OCR hike
Huge moves (up) in bond yields again overnight putting pressure on equities, especially tech stocks. NZD hits new post-2018 high yesterday, above 0.7450, before slipping back. NZ 10-year swap hits 2% as market moves to price >50% chance of an OCR hike
26th Feb 21, 8:01am
25th Feb 21, 8:01am
Global reflation trade the predominant force, drives US equities higher, supported by a dovish Fed. UST10s stretch to 1.43% before wave of buying ensues. NZ rates push higher and add risk to tightening cycle beginning next year
Global reflation trade the predominant force, drives US equities higher, supported by a dovish Fed. UST10s stretch to 1.43% before wave of buying ensues. NZ rates push higher and add risk to tightening cycle beginning next year
25th Feb 21, 8:01am
24th Feb 21, 7:52am
Equity markets remain under pressure. US Treasury rates consolidate. Only small currency moves, with the NZD remaining near its high. RBNZ MPS in focus today - to remain dovish, but less dovish than November
Equity markets remain under pressure. US Treasury rates consolidate. Only small currency moves, with the NZD remaining near its high. RBNZ MPS in focus today - to remain dovish, but less dovish than November
24th Feb 21, 7:52am
23rd Feb 21, 7:53am
Rates fall back overnight after yesterday's carnage. Commodity prices on the charge, supporting fresh highs in NZD and AUD. USD broadly weaker as well 
Rates fall back overnight after yesterday's carnage. Commodity prices on the charge, supporting fresh highs in NZD and AUD. USD broadly weaker as well 
23rd Feb 21, 7:53am
22nd Feb 21, 8:28am
Roger J Kerr says a more 'dovish' than expected statement from our central bank later this week will drive the Kiwi dollar sharply lower
Roger J Kerr says a more 'dovish' than expected statement from our central bank later this week will drive the Kiwi dollar sharply lower
22nd Feb 21, 8:28am
22nd Feb 21, 7:43am
Bond yields higher again, as reflationary sentiment dominates. S&P500 down slightly, but big gains for cyclical and small cap stocks. USD lower despite higher US real yields. NZD up to 0.73, AUD makes a fresh three-year high
Bond yields higher again, as reflationary sentiment dominates. S&P500 down slightly, but big gains for cyclical and small cap stocks. USD lower despite higher US real yields. NZD up to 0.73, AUD makes a fresh three-year high
22nd Feb 21, 7:43am
19th Feb 21, 7:57am
Equities fall back after their recent strong run. Nerves on higher global bond rates backdrop and weak US labour market data not helping. NZD remains range-bound; GBP still in favour
Equities fall back after their recent strong run. Nerves on higher global bond rates backdrop and weak US labour market data not helping. NZD remains range-bound; GBP still in favour
19th Feb 21, 7:57am
18th Feb 21, 7:39am
US retail sales surprisingly strong in January and other data positively surprise. Still, US equities weaker, and UST yields fall from recent high. NZ swaps curve approaches steepest level since 2014
US retail sales surprisingly strong in January and other data positively surprise. Still, US equities weaker, and UST yields fall from recent high. NZ swaps curve approaches steepest level since 2014
18th Feb 21, 7:39am

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