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US equities continue their record-breaking run, a contrast with the slump in Chinese equities. Global rates push lower, US 10-year rate down slightly. No change expected from the BoJ later today
23rd Jan 24, 7:48am
US equities continue their record-breaking run, a contrast with the slump in Chinese equities. Global rates push lower, US 10-year rate down slightly. No change expected from the BoJ later today
Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
22nd Jan 24, 7:55am
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Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
The S&P500 reached a record high close underpinned by a strong performance by technology companies. US Fed speakers push back against near term rate cuts as the blackout period begins for the January FOMC
22nd Jan 24, 7:39am
The S&P500 reached a record high close underpinned by a strong performance by technology companies. US Fed speakers push back against near term rate cuts as the blackout period begins for the January FOMC
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
19th Jan 24, 7:48am
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
Global equites fell and bond yields moved higher as investors trimmed expectations for rate cuts by major central banks. US retail sales were higher than consensus estimates. 2-year treasury yields increased 15bps supporting the US dollar
18th Jan 24, 8:01am
Global equites fell and bond yields moved higher as investors trimmed expectations for rate cuts by major central banks. US retail sales were higher than consensus estimates. 2-year treasury yields increased 15bps supporting the US dollar
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
17th Jan 24, 7:47am
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
16th Jan 24, 7:54am
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
15th Jan 24, 7:46am
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Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
Softer than expected US producer prices support rally in global bonds. US 2-year treasury yields reached the lowest level since May. Weak inflation pressures and subdued demand for credit support the case for lower policy rates in China
15th Jan 24, 7:46am
Softer than expected US producer prices support rally in global bonds. US 2-year treasury yields reached the lowest level since May. Weak inflation pressures and subdued demand for credit support the case for lower policy rates in China
Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
8th Jan 24, 8:51am
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Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
19th Dec 23, 7:51am
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
18th Dec 23, 8:23am
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Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
US policy makers push back against speculation of near-term rate cuts by the Fed. ‘We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now’. European economic activity weak. German bund yields dropped to lowest level since January
18th Dec 23, 7:37am
US policy makers push back against speculation of near-term rate cuts by the Fed. ‘We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now’. European economic activity weak. German bund yields dropped to lowest level since January
Markets have extended the post-FOMC moves. US treasury yields and the US dollar have declined further. But both the ECB and BofE left rates on hold and sounded cautious on the outlook
15th Dec 23, 7:52am
Markets have extended the post-FOMC moves. US treasury yields and the US dollar have declined further. But both the ECB and BofE left rates on hold and sounded cautious on the outlook
Weaker than expected US PPI, UK GDP and euro area industrial production data supports extended bond market rally. Domestic rates tumbled yesterday, some attributed to weaker pricing indicators
14th Dec 23, 7:52am
Weaker than expected US PPI, UK GDP and euro area industrial production data supports extended bond market rally. Domestic rates tumbled yesterday, some attributed to weaker pricing indicators
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
13th Dec 23, 7:57am
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
12th Dec 23, 7:45am
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
11th Dec 23, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
US labour market data was stronger than expected in November. US treasury yields increased and the US dollar gained snapping a 3-week loosing streak. China consumer price inflation fell 0.5%, the fastest decline in 3-years amid weak domestic demand
11th Dec 23, 7:43am
US labour market data was stronger than expected in November. US treasury yields increased and the US dollar gained snapping a 3-week loosing streak. China consumer price inflation fell 0.5%, the fastest decline in 3-years amid weak domestic demand
The yen has strengthened and JGB yields moved sharply higher following Bank of Japan signals of an exit from their large-scale stimulus and negative interest rates
8th Dec 23, 7:47am
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The yen has strengthened and JGB yields moved sharply higher following Bank of Japan signals of an exit from their large-scale stimulus and negative interest rates
Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency
7th Dec 23, 7:52am
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Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency
RBA leaves policy unchanged, keeps weak tightening bias, disappointing the hawks and sending their rates and AUD lower. ECB's Schnabel turns from hawkish to dovish, sending European rates much lower. Spillover effects on US Treasuries
6th Dec 23, 8:08am
RBA leaves policy unchanged, keeps weak tightening bias, disappointing the hawks and sending their rates and AUD lower. ECB's Schnabel turns from hawkish to dovish, sending European rates much lower. Spillover effects on US Treasuries
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
5th Dec 23, 7:54am
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
4th Dec 23, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
4th Dec 23, 7:40am
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas