US$
Chinese equities advanced with officials announcing more measures to support the construction sector and boost consumption. The Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled bond purchase operation to slow the move higher in JGB yields
1st Aug 23, 7:55am
Chinese equities advanced with officials announcing more measures to support the construction sector and boost consumption. The Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled bond purchase operation to slow the move higher in JGB yields
Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
31st Jul 23, 8:15am
2
Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
Growing hopes that the US economy can achieve a soft landing where the US Federal Reserve gets inflation under control without triggering a recession. US data showed a cooling in inflation pressures
31st Jul 23, 7:41am
Growing hopes that the US economy can achieve a soft landing where the US Federal Reserve gets inflation under control without triggering a recession. US data showed a cooling in inflation pressures
Run of stronger than expected US economic activity data continues. ECB hikes, keeps options open for more. Reports BoJ will tweak of its yield curve control policy
28th Jul 23, 7:52am
Run of stronger than expected US economic activity data continues. ECB hikes, keeps options open for more. Reports BoJ will tweak of its yield curve control policy
Fed hikes 25bps, the same as the NZ OCR. Fed keeps options open, maintains slight tightening bias. US rates and USD down modestly after Fed Chair spoke
27th Jul 23, 7:41am
1
Fed hikes 25bps, the same as the NZ OCR. Fed keeps options open, maintains slight tightening bias. US rates and USD down modestly after Fed Chair spoke
Improved sentiment on China supports risk assets. EUR weaker on soft ECB bank lending survey. US equities continue to rally. Consumer confidence up to 2-year high; Treasury yields push higher ahead of Fed meeting early tomorrow
26th Jul 23, 7:43am
Improved sentiment on China supports risk assets. EUR weaker on soft ECB bank lending survey. US equities continue to rally. Consumer confidence up to 2-year high; Treasury yields push higher ahead of Fed meeting early tomorrow
Weak purchasing manager surveys in the US and Europe raise concerns about the strength of the global economy. Expectations of large-scale Chinese stimulus being pared back
25th Jul 23, 7:42am
Weak purchasing manager surveys in the US and Europe raise concerns about the strength of the global economy. Expectations of large-scale Chinese stimulus being pared back
Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling
24th Jul 23, 8:28am
2
Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling
Investors look ahead to central bank policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan this week. Japan CPI higher than expected
24th Jul 23, 7:24am
Investors look ahead to central bank policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan this week. Japan CPI higher than expected
NZD and AUD dragged higher by PBoC moves, but broad USD strength overnight then pulls them back down
US Treasury yields higher as labour market data remain remain too strong for comfort. Global forces and post-CPI afterglow drive NZ rates higher. Strong Australian employment report keeps prospect of further RBA tightening alive
21st Jul 23, 7:53am
US Treasury yields higher as labour market data remain remain too strong for comfort. Global forces and post-CPI afterglow drive NZ rates higher. Strong Australian employment report keeps prospect of further RBA tightening alive
Lower European rates support US Treasuries. US retail sales report mixed. ECB's usually hawkish Knot hoses down rate hike expectations beyond next week's meeting. German rates fall 10-13bps
19th Jul 23, 7:49am
1
Lower European rates support US Treasuries. US retail sales report mixed. ECB's usually hawkish Knot hoses down rate hike expectations beyond next week's meeting. German rates fall 10-13bps
Weaker than expected China activity data drive weaker yuan, spilling over into weaker NZD and AUD. Global rates push lower, NZ rates play catch-up
18th Jul 23, 7:42am
1
Weaker than expected China activity data drive weaker yuan, spilling over into weaker NZD and AUD. Global rates push lower, NZ rates play catch-up
Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
17th Jul 23, 9:00am
6
Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
‘Soft-landing’ narrative for the US economy gaining momentum amid signs of cooling inflation. US consumer sentiment index easily beat expectations. US treasury yields rebounded. The US Dollar got support from higher US treasury yields
17th Jul 23, 7:35am
‘Soft-landing’ narrative for the US economy gaining momentum amid signs of cooling inflation. US consumer sentiment index easily beat expectations. US treasury yields rebounded. The US Dollar got support from higher US treasury yields
Softer than expected US inflation data contributed to large moves across global markets. US equities reach 15 month highs. US treasury yields are lower and the US dollar is sharply weaker
13th Jul 23, 7:53am
1
Softer than expected US inflation data contributed to large moves across global markets. US equities reach 15 month highs. US treasury yields are lower and the US dollar is sharply weaker
US treasury yields moved lower led by the front end. Curve maintains recent steepening move. Soft consumer and producer price data in China raise concerns
11th Jul 23, 7:22am
1
US treasury yields moved lower led by the front end. Curve maintains recent steepening move. Soft consumer and producer price data in China raise concerns
Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
10th Jul 23, 9:24am
1
Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
Weaker US payrolls data contributes to lower front end US Treasury yields. 10-year yields marginally higher, up 20bps for the week. Canada payrolls data surprises with strength
10th Jul 23, 7:47am
Weaker US payrolls data contributes to lower front end US Treasury yields. 10-year yields marginally higher, up 20bps for the week. Canada payrolls data surprises with strength
Very strong US ADP payrolls and stronger ISM services report keep alive the probability of further Fed hikes; bond market selloff extends. NZ rates up to fresh multi-year highs as well, with more upside pressure likely today
7th Jul 23, 7:49am
Very strong US ADP payrolls and stronger ISM services report keep alive the probability of further Fed hikes; bond market selloff extends. NZ rates up to fresh multi-year highs as well, with more upside pressure likely today
US Treasuries curve steepens, led by the long end; US 10-year rate up 8bps to a fresh three-month high. NZ rates higher as investors make way for new bond supply; demand solid for syndicated tap of 2033s, despite deteriorating fiscal accounts
6th Jul 23, 7:52am
1
US Treasuries curve steepens, led by the long end; US 10-year rate up 8bps to a fresh three-month high. NZ rates higher as investors make way for new bond supply; demand solid for syndicated tap of 2033s, despite deteriorating fiscal accounts
NZD/AUD pushes higher as RBA opts for a pause in the tightening cycle. Market ignored NZ QSBO which was a very monetary policy-friendly report, with significant easing in capacity pressures
5th Jul 23, 7:50am
NZD/AUD pushes higher as RBA opts for a pause in the tightening cycle. Market ignored NZ QSBO which was a very monetary policy-friendly report, with significant easing in capacity pressures
US ISM manufacturing survey soft, consistent with recession in the sector. But US equities and US Treasury yields push higher in a holiday-shortened session. NZ QSBO today and a finely balanced RBA policy decision
4th Jul 23, 7:59am
US ISM manufacturing survey soft, consistent with recession in the sector. But US equities and US Treasury yields push higher in a holiday-shortened session. NZ QSBO today and a finely balanced RBA policy decision
Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months
3rd Jul 23, 8:49am
1
Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months
PBoC and BoJ step up verbal intervention to control their depreciating currencies. Softer US consumer spending and PCE deflators support US Treasuries and US equities but drive the USD lower
3rd Jul 23, 7:43am
PBoC and BoJ step up verbal intervention to control their depreciating currencies. Softer US consumer spending and PCE deflators support US Treasuries and US equities but drive the USD lower
US initial jobless claims fall, Q1 GDP revised up, so run of positive US economic surprises continues. US rates much higher across the board. Projected Fed hikes seen more likely. US equities unperturbed. NZ business confidence improves further
30th Jun 23, 8:20am
US initial jobless claims fall, Q1 GDP revised up, so run of positive US economic surprises continues. US rates much higher across the board. Projected Fed hikes seen more likely. US equities unperturbed. NZ business confidence improves further