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China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
20th Feb 24, 7:43am
China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024
19th Feb 24, 7:53am
US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024
Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
16th Feb 24, 7:47am
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Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
15th Feb 24, 7:45am
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
14th Feb 24, 7:29am
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Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
13th Feb 24, 7:48am
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
12th Feb 24, 7:33am
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The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
9th Feb 24, 7:41am
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike
8th Feb 24, 7:49am
S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
7th Feb 24, 7:53am
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
5th Feb 24, 7:46am
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
2nd Feb 24, 7:50am
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US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar
1st Feb 24, 7:49am
Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar
Higher than expected US job openings data points to resilience in the US labour markets. UST yields rebound. The Eurozone narrowly avoids recession. Yields on Chinese 10-year bonds fell to the lowest level in more than 20 years
31st Jan 24, 7:55am
Higher than expected US job openings data points to resilience in the US labour markets. UST yields rebound. The Eurozone narrowly avoids recession. Yields on Chinese 10-year bonds fell to the lowest level in more than 20 years
Markets in holding pattern but fully prices in April cut for ECB, dragging down European rates and EUR. Oil prices fall back after strong Asia open
30th Jan 24, 7:52am
Markets in holding pattern but fully prices in April cut for ECB, dragging down European rates and EUR. Oil prices fall back after strong Asia open
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing
29th Jan 24, 7:44am
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing
GDP up an annualised 3.3% in Q4, PCE deflator at 1.5% and core PCE deflator at 2%. US Treasury market supported by the benign inflation backdrop, yields slightly lower. European rates and EUR lower. NZD flat just over 61 USc
26th Jan 24, 8:34am
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GDP up an annualised 3.3% in Q4, PCE deflator at 1.5% and core PCE deflator at 2%. US Treasury market supported by the benign inflation backdrop, yields slightly lower. European rates and EUR lower. NZD flat just over 61 USc
US equities rise to fresh record high. China surprises with 50bps cut to RRR; Bank of Canada drops tightening bias; Global PMI data support the market. NZ inflation moderates
25th Jan 24, 8:11am
US equities rise to fresh record high. China surprises with 50bps cut to RRR; Bank of Canada drops tightening bias; Global PMI data support the market. NZ inflation moderates
Stocks in Hong Kong surged amid reports that Chinese authorities are considering a range of measures to help stabilise equity markets after a significant period of weakness. The US dollar extended its 2024 gains
24th Jan 24, 7:50am
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Stocks in Hong Kong surged amid reports that Chinese authorities are considering a range of measures to help stabilise equity markets after a significant period of weakness. The US dollar extended its 2024 gains
US equities continue their record-breaking run, a contrast with the slump in Chinese equities. Global rates push lower, US 10-year rate down slightly. No change expected from the BoJ later today
23rd Jan 24, 7:48am
US equities continue their record-breaking run, a contrast with the slump in Chinese equities. Global rates push lower, US 10-year rate down slightly. No change expected from the BoJ later today
The S&P500 reached a record high close underpinned by a strong performance by technology companies. US Fed speakers push back against near term rate cuts as the blackout period begins for the January FOMC
22nd Jan 24, 7:39am
The S&P500 reached a record high close underpinned by a strong performance by technology companies. US Fed speakers push back against near term rate cuts as the blackout period begins for the January FOMC
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
19th Jan 24, 7:48am
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
Global equites fell and bond yields moved higher as investors trimmed expectations for rate cuts by major central banks. US retail sales were higher than consensus estimates. 2-year treasury yields increased 15bps supporting the US dollar
18th Jan 24, 8:01am
Global equites fell and bond yields moved higher as investors trimmed expectations for rate cuts by major central banks. US retail sales were higher than consensus estimates. 2-year treasury yields increased 15bps supporting the US dollar
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
17th Jan 24, 7:47am
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
16th Jan 24, 7:54am
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher