Yuan
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
5th Dec 23, 7:54am
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
4th Dec 23, 7:40am
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
1st Dec 23, 7:54am
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
30th Nov 23, 7:53am
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
29th Nov 23, 7:56am
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
28th Nov 23, 7:43am
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
The US dollar remains under pressure. NZD/USD ended last week at 3-month highs just below 0.6100 amid the broad US dollar weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
27th Nov 23, 7:32am
The US dollar remains under pressure. NZD/USD ended last week at 3-month highs just below 0.6100 amid the broad US dollar weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
European bond yields push higher from stronger than expected PMIs, hawkish ECB commentary and prospect of increased German bond supply as the government looks to suspend the "debt brake". Other markets quiet
24th Nov 23, 7:50am
European bond yields push higher from stronger than expected PMIs, hawkish ECB commentary and prospect of increased German bond supply as the government looks to suspend the "debt brake". Other markets quiet
US data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines. The data also gives the USD some broad support. Oil prices lower as OPEC+ squabbles over future production levels
23rd Nov 23, 7:47am
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US data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines. The data also gives the USD some broad support. Oil prices lower as OPEC+ squabbles over future production levels
Stronger Asian currencies means the USD/JPY breaks below 148, playing catch-up to recent fall in US rates. US 10-year rate consolidates near 4.4%
22nd Nov 23, 7:53am
Stronger Asian currencies means the USD/JPY breaks below 148, playing catch-up to recent fall in US rates. US 10-year rate consolidates near 4.4%
Global asset markets continue to consolidate recent moves in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Oil prices have continue to rally ahead of the Opec+ meeting on Sunday
21st Nov 23, 7:51am
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Global asset markets continue to consolidate recent moves in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Oil prices have continue to rally ahead of the Opec+ meeting on Sunday
Oil prices recover from slump on news Saudi Arabia and others will extend supply cuts. USD weaker. 10-year US treasuries stable. UK Gilts outperformed following softer than expected UK retail sales
20th Nov 23, 7:28am
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Oil prices recover from slump on news Saudi Arabia and others will extend supply cuts. USD weaker. 10-year US treasuries stable. UK Gilts outperformed following softer than expected UK retail sales
US Treasury yields are lower, following a series of weaker US economic indicators. Oil prices plunge close to 5%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, seeing NZ-US 10-year spread down to 48bps; NZ 2-year swap continues to push lower
17th Nov 23, 7:43am
US Treasury yields are lower, following a series of weaker US economic indicators. Oil prices plunge close to 5%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, seeing NZ-US 10-year spread down to 48bps; NZ 2-year swap continues to push lower
US Treasuries reverse course, with 10-year rate up 10bps on the day following yesterdays 19bps drop. US data consistent with soft landing, disinflationary narrative; retail sales soft but better than expected, while PPI much weaker than expected
16th Nov 23, 7:54am
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US Treasuries reverse course, with 10-year rate up 10bps on the day following yesterdays 19bps drop. US data consistent with soft landing, disinflationary narrative; retail sales soft but better than expected, while PPI much weaker than expected
There were large moves across global markets as US CPI came in below consensus expectations, suggesting the US Fed hiking cycle is complete and the next move will be a cut in 2024. Equity markets made strong gains while UST yields fell
15th Nov 23, 7:36am
There were large moves across global markets as US CPI came in below consensus expectations, suggesting the US Fed hiking cycle is complete and the next move will be a cut in 2024. Equity markets made strong gains while UST yields fell
Market movements modest ahead of tonight’s key US CPI release, with little net change in US equities and Treasury yields; modest currency changes
14th Nov 23, 7:55am
Market movements modest ahead of tonight’s key US CPI release, with little net change in US equities and Treasury yields; modest currency changes
US equities extended the recent rally despite weak consumer sentiment data and cautious comments Fed Chair Powell. Moody’s lowered its outlook on the US’s credit rating to negative from stable
13th Nov 23, 7:23am
US equities extended the recent rally despite weak consumer sentiment data and cautious comments Fed Chair Powell. Moody’s lowered its outlook on the US’s credit rating to negative from stable
US 10-year rate up 9bps from the NZ close to 4.57%, after trading as low as 4.47%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, taking the fall for the month to 55bps for the 10-year
10th Nov 23, 7:47am
US 10-year rate up 9bps from the NZ close to 4.57%, after trading as low as 4.47%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, taking the fall for the month to 55bps for the 10-year
Oil prices show the largest moves; Brent crude down over 2% to go sub-USD80 per barrel. NZ rates follow prior offshore moves to close at fresh multi-week/month lows
9th Nov 23, 8:03am
Oil prices show the largest moves; Brent crude down over 2% to go sub-USD80 per barrel. NZ rates follow prior offshore moves to close at fresh multi-week/month lows
Oil prices have fallen close to 3%, to the lowest level in more than 3 months, on concerns about global growth following weak Chinese trade data. US officials emphasised the need to bring inflation closer to 2%
8th Nov 23, 7:55am
Oil prices have fallen close to 3%, to the lowest level in more than 3 months, on concerns about global growth following weak Chinese trade data. US officials emphasised the need to bring inflation closer to 2%
US equities consolidate last week's hefty gains. US Treasury yields push higher, after last week's hefty fall. The RBA, the laggard of the global policy cycle, likely to hike
7th Nov 23, 7:40am
US equities consolidate last week's hefty gains. US Treasury yields push higher, after last week's hefty fall. The RBA, the laggard of the global policy cycle, likely to hike
Weaker than expected US labour market data contributed to a rally across global bond markets boosting risk sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in October below estimates of 180k. The US ISM services PMI fell to a 5-month low
6th Nov 23, 7:52am
Weaker than expected US labour market data contributed to a rally across global bond markets boosting risk sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in October below estimates of 180k. The US ISM services PMI fell to a 5-month low
Risk sensitive assets rise investors confident aggressive monetary tightening cycle is ending. The Bank of England left rates steady at 5.25% for the second consecutive month which was in line with expectations
3rd Nov 23, 8:00am
Risk sensitive assets rise investors confident aggressive monetary tightening cycle is ending. The Bank of England left rates steady at 5.25% for the second consecutive month which was in line with expectations
US Fed leaves rates on hold for a second consecutive meeting. US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement notes intention to slow pace of longer term debt issuance which drives much lower Treasury yields, led by the long end
2nd Nov 23, 8:25am
US Fed leaves rates on hold for a second consecutive meeting. US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement notes intention to slow pace of longer term debt issuance which drives much lower Treasury yields, led by the long end
BoJ loosens grip on yield curve control policy. Despite that, the yen shows a notable decline. US employment cost index slightly higher than expected. Euro area data shows economic contraction in Q3 and weaker inflation
1st Nov 23, 7:48am
BoJ loosens grip on yield curve control policy. Despite that, the yen shows a notable decline. US employment cost index slightly higher than expected. Euro area data shows economic contraction in Q3 and weaker inflation