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Indications of likely future inflation continue to drift lower in the latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey, but the new Government's honeymoon continues, with business confidence hitting its highest level since early 2015
30th Nov 23, 1:24pm
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Indications of likely future inflation continue to drift lower in the latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey, but the new Government's honeymoon continues, with business confidence hitting its highest level since early 2015
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
27th Nov 23, 8:52am
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Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
13th Nov 23, 8:58am
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Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
9th Nov 23, 9:07am
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Economists say the Reserve Bank will be wary of survey results that show shorter term inflation expectations have fallen but longer term expectations for both inflation and interest rates have risen
Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
8th Nov 23, 3:51pm
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Influential RBNZ survey shows a small but significant drop in the expected level of inflation in two years time, and a sharp drop in expectations of one-year-out inflation; house prices expected to rise
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
6th Nov 23, 9:09am
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a bounce in most activity indicators; ANZ chief economist says 'it would clearly be a stretch to argue there's been no election impact'
31st Oct 23, 1:46pm
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The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a bounce in most activity indicators; ANZ chief economist says 'it would clearly be a stretch to argue there's been no election impact'
Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
30th Oct 23, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
23rd Oct 23, 7:00am
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Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors
16th Oct 23, 8:37am
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Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors
New Kiwibank spending data shows the volume of card spend declined 0.7% over the September quarter, while compared with a year earlier, the number of transactions grew by just 0.5%
10th Oct 23, 10:33am
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New Kiwibank spending data shows the volume of card spend declined 0.7% over the September quarter, while compared with a year earlier, the number of transactions grew by just 0.5%
Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
9th Oct 23, 8:21am
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Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks
2nd Oct 23, 8:35am
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Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a mixed picture of a 'patchy' economy, with inflationary pressures gradually waning, but with cost and wage expectations remaining very elevated
28th Sep 23, 1:28pm
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The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows a mixed picture of a 'patchy' economy, with inflationary pressures gradually waning, but with cost and wage expectations remaining very elevated
Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
25th Sep 23, 9:05am
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Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars
18th Sep 23, 9:06am
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Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars
Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record
11th Sep 23, 8:11am
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Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
4th Sep 23, 8:09am
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Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows rising confidence and business activity levels, with falling inflation indicators - 'Goldilocks is in the building'
31st Aug 23, 1:18pm
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The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows rising confidence and business activity levels, with falling inflation indicators - 'Goldilocks is in the building'
Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
28th Aug 23, 8:20am
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Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
Our national airline soars from the financial trough of the pandemic to emerge with its second-highest profit ever
24th Aug 23, 9:38am
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Our national airline soars from the financial trough of the pandemic to emerge with its second-highest profit ever
Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate
21st Aug 23, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate
Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
14th Aug 23, 8:32am
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Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
[updated]
Influential RBNZ survey shows a slight rise in the expected level of inflation in two years time
9th Aug 23, 3:22pm
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Influential RBNZ survey shows a slight rise in the expected level of inflation in two years time
Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing
7th Aug 23, 8:54am
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Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing