Coronavirus
Roger J Kerr sees the American Fed decisions driven by employment & wage trends, deficit & debt ceiling issues, credit stress, and US rent trends. Fed hawkishness and USD strength has run its course, he says
13th Mar 23, 8:41am
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Roger J Kerr sees the American Fed decisions driven by employment & wage trends, deficit & debt ceiling issues, credit stress, and US rent trends. Fed hawkishness and USD strength has run its course, he says
Roger J Kerr says Australia will out-perform New Zealand in the GDP economic growth stakes this year, but the interest rate differential will remain in favour of NZ over coming months with our wage-push and sticky inflation problem
6th Mar 23, 8:04am
Roger J Kerr says Australia will out-perform New Zealand in the GDP economic growth stakes this year, but the interest rate differential will remain in favour of NZ over coming months with our wage-push and sticky inflation problem
Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows some further improvement in activity indicators - but inflation expectations 'remain stuck around 6%'
28th Feb 23, 1:30pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows some further improvement in activity indicators - but inflation expectations 'remain stuck around 6%'
Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank are still full of inflation problems, but offer no solutions
27th Feb 23, 7:48am
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Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank are still full of inflation problems, but offer no solutions
Roger J Kerr sees the Kiwi dollar rising against the American currency again over coming weeks and months; says NZ needs a net inflow of 60,000 migrants per year
20th Feb 23, 8:01am
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Roger J Kerr sees the Kiwi dollar rising against the American currency again over coming weeks and months; says NZ needs a net inflow of 60,000 migrants per year
Influential RBNZ survey shows substantial drop in expectations of inflation in two years time - albeit that at 3.3% the survey respondents still see inflation outside the targeted band in 2025
14th Feb 23, 3:25pm
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Influential RBNZ survey shows substantial drop in expectations of inflation in two years time - albeit that at 3.3% the survey respondents still see inflation outside the targeted band in 2025
Roger J Kerr has a look at the alternative strategies and tactics the RBNZ could adopt
13th Feb 23, 8:31am
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Roger J Kerr has a look at the alternative strategies and tactics the RBNZ could adopt
Roger J Kerr says monetary tightening to bring down inflation always seems to require a higher exchange rate
6th Feb 23, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says monetary tightening to bring down inflation always seems to require a higher exchange rate
Roger J Kerr suggests four actions that could address our current inflation problem. He also is sanguine about how the US debt ceiling problem resolution. And he is highly critical of how the RBA is foreseeing its developing issues
30th Jan 23, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr suggests four actions that could address our current inflation problem. He also is sanguine about how the US debt ceiling problem resolution. And he is highly critical of how the RBA is foreseeing its developing issues
Roger J Kerr says the sentiment towards, and direction of, the US dollar currency value remains firmly negative
23rd Jan 23, 8:39am
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Roger J Kerr says the sentiment towards, and direction of, the US dollar currency value remains firmly negative
Roger J Kerr says 'choppy and sideways' looks like the order of the day for the markets this year
16th Jan 23, 8:08am
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Roger J Kerr says 'choppy and sideways' looks like the order of the day for the markets this year
Roger J Kerr returns for 2023 with his views on currency movements and strategies. He notes it is rare or the NZD/USD rate to deviate from general USD movements. He also observes the NZD/AUD seems oversold
9th Jan 23, 8:50am
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Roger J Kerr returns for 2023 with his views on currency movements and strategies. He notes it is rare or the NZD/USD rate to deviate from general USD movements. He also observes the NZD/AUD seems oversold
Roger J Kerr wraps up the currency year from his perspective, and hands out his 'awards' with his politics on his sleeve
19th Dec 22, 8:00am
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Roger J Kerr wraps up the currency year from his perspective, and hands out his 'awards' with his politics on his sleeve
Surging demand in the service industries after the re-opening of the borders has seen the economy grow at a much faster pace than expected in the September quarter; the Reserve Bank won't be pleased - 75 point rise to OCR in February appears certain
15th Dec 22, 11:01am
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Surging demand in the service industries after the re-opening of the borders has seen the economy grow at a much faster pace than expected in the September quarter; the Reserve Bank won't be pleased - 75 point rise to OCR in February appears certain
Forsyth Barr research analysts see five 'potential positive macro inflections' for a recovery in the second half of next year; namely — inflation, interest rates, GDP, house prices, and government
13th Dec 22, 9:51am
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Forsyth Barr research analysts see five 'potential positive macro inflections' for a recovery in the second half of next year; namely — inflation, interest rates, GDP, house prices, and government
Latest 'consensus' economists' forecasts released by the NZIER show a substantial deterioration in the past three months of how the economists view prospects - particularly in three years' time
12th Dec 22, 1:26pm
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Latest 'consensus' economists' forecasts released by the NZIER show a substantial deterioration in the past three months of how the economists view prospects - particularly in three years' time
Figures to be released in the coming week will show the economy has continued to grow quite strongly. The Reserve Bank's attempts to 'engineer' a recession are still very much in the future yet
12th Dec 22, 9:00am
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Figures to be released in the coming week will show the economy has continued to grow quite strongly. The Reserve Bank's attempts to 'engineer' a recession are still very much in the future yet
Roger J Kerr sees coming flows of capital back to Europe and this will force the value of the US dollar lower
12th Dec 22, 8:05am
Roger J Kerr sees coming flows of capital back to Europe and this will force the value of the US dollar lower
Roger J Kerr ponders on how New Zealand will get its economic mojo back
Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows a sharp drop in confidence and own activity readings, while sentiment in the residential construction sector has 'tanked' and 'could hardly be lower'
30th Nov 22, 1:27pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows a sharp drop in confidence and own activity readings, while sentiment in the residential construction sector has 'tanked' and 'could hardly be lower'
Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy 'penny-dropped' in both Wellington and New York for the RBNZ and US Federal Reserve respectively last week
28th Nov 22, 8:18am
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Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy 'penny-dropped' in both Wellington and New York for the RBNZ and US Federal Reserve respectively last week
Roger J Kerr says the implications of a different inflation/interest rate track for New Zealand is that the Kiwi dollar may well once again attract 'carry-trade' offshore investors
21st Nov 22, 8:44am
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Roger J Kerr says the implications of a different inflation/interest rate track for New Zealand is that the Kiwi dollar may well once again attract 'carry-trade' offshore investors
BNZ economists say they think the Reserve Bank would 'prefer' to hike the OCR by just 50 basis points rather than the 75 that is widely expected in the markets
14th Nov 22, 2:46pm
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BNZ economists say they think the Reserve Bank would 'prefer' to hike the OCR by just 50 basis points rather than the 75 that is widely expected in the markets
It will take a 'concerted effort' to squash wage-price spiral dynamics 'that are becoming ever more established' in New Zealand, ANZ economists say
14th Nov 22, 10:31am
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It will take a 'concerted effort' to squash wage-price spiral dynamics 'that are becoming ever more established' in New Zealand, ANZ economists say
Roger J Kerr says, it needed a special catalyst to break the US dollar bulls and stimulate aggressive USD selling
14th Nov 22, 8:29am
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Roger J Kerr says, it needed a special catalyst to break the US dollar bulls and stimulate aggressive USD selling