Coronavirus
Influential RBNZ survey shows considerable rise in expectations of inflation in two years time, with a rate of 3.62%, and even the much longer-term expectations for five years and 10 years have risen above the RBNZ's explicit 2% target
8th Nov 22, 3:23pm
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Influential RBNZ survey shows considerable rise in expectations of inflation in two years time, with a rate of 3.62%, and even the much longer-term expectations for five years and 10 years have risen above the RBNZ's explicit 2% target
Roger J Kerr says the next RBNZ monetary policy statement on 23 November will be a difficult one for our central bank
7th Nov 22, 8:22am
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Roger J Kerr says the next RBNZ monetary policy statement on 23 November will be a difficult one for our central bank
Roger J Kerr says the recent signs are encouraging for the Kiwi dollar to recover to back above 0.6000 against the USD as fast as it dived from 0.6000 to 0.5550 in mid to late September
31st Oct 22, 8:20am
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Roger J Kerr says the recent signs are encouraging for the Kiwi dollar to recover to back above 0.6000 against the USD as fast as it dived from 0.6000 to 0.5550 in mid to late September
Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows a drop in business confidence and activity levels - but inflation expectations have risen again
26th Oct 22, 1:33pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows a drop in business confidence and activity levels - but inflation expectations have risen again
Roger J Kerr sees “extreme and excessive” geopolitical, economic, and financial/investment market situations globally that make decision-making difficult for businesses, investors, and governments alike
24th Oct 22, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr sees “extreme and excessive” geopolitical, economic, and financial/investment market situations globally that make decision-making difficult for businesses, investors, and governments alike
Roger J Kerr says it would be a mistake for the Fed to maintain tight monetary policy just because core inflation is not reducing as fast as they would like
17th Oct 22, 8:05am
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Roger J Kerr says it would be a mistake for the Fed to maintain tight monetary policy just because core inflation is not reducing as fast as they would like
Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the volume of cash withdrawals is 70% higher than a year ago
10th Oct 22, 11:50am
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Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the volume of cash withdrawals is 70% higher than a year ago
Latest survey of retailers shows a still significant number are unsure if their businesses will survive the next year
10th Oct 22, 10:34am
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Latest survey of retailers shows a still significant number are unsure if their businesses will survive the next year
Roger J Kerr says a major financial collapse due to someone’s failure to meet cash margin calls on extreme leveraged positions in equities or bonds is the sort of risk event just waiting to happen
10th Oct 22, 8:55am
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Roger J Kerr says a major financial collapse due to someone’s failure to meet cash margin calls on extreme leveraged positions in equities or bonds is the sort of risk event just waiting to happen
Analysts at Forsyth Barr say our national carrier might have its fourth-best ever result in the first half of the current financial year
4th Oct 22, 2:50pm
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Analysts at Forsyth Barr say our national carrier might have its fourth-best ever result in the first half of the current financial year
Roger J Kerr says Kiwi dollar selling is typically very short-term and speculative in nature, often triggered by global events and economic shocks
3rd Oct 22, 8:35am
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Roger J Kerr says Kiwi dollar selling is typically very short-term and speculative in nature, often triggered by global events and economic shocks
Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows an overall lift in business sentiment - but activity indicators in residential construction have hit a fresh low
29th Sep 22, 1:30pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows an overall lift in business sentiment - but activity indicators in residential construction have hit a fresh low
Roger J Kerr explains the changed Fed stance, why the Japanese intervened in currency markets, why NZ monetary policy needs to be tighter, and why the NZD has fallen more than some peers
26th Sep 22, 9:22am
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Roger J Kerr explains the changed Fed stance, why the Japanese intervened in currency markets, why NZ monetary policy needs to be tighter, and why the NZD has fallen more than some peers
The super hot labour market is the biggest threat to the Reserve Bank's efforts to get inflation back under control. David Hargreaves has a crunch of some numbers
22nd Sep 22, 10:00am
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The super hot labour market is the biggest threat to the Reserve Bank's efforts to get inflation back under control. David Hargreaves has a crunch of some numbers
David Hargreaves thinks the Reserve Bank will actually be very comfortable with the latest GDP data - even if economists are not
20th Sep 22, 12:11pm
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David Hargreaves thinks the Reserve Bank will actually be very comfortable with the latest GDP data - even if economists are not
Roger J Kerr points to evidence that rising interest rates have already 'smashed' the US housing market and inflation will soon follow sharply lower
19th Sep 22, 8:39am
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Roger J Kerr points to evidence that rising interest rates have already 'smashed' the US housing market and inflation will soon follow sharply lower
Surging demand in the country's service industries after Covid restrictions saw the country easily avoid recession in the June quarter
15th Sep 22, 11:01am
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Surging demand in the country's service industries after Covid restrictions saw the country easily avoid recession in the June quarter
BNZ economists say a very wide range of forecasts for the outcome of GDP figures this week likely reflects the 'noise' in the component parts
12th Sep 22, 3:10pm
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BNZ economists say a very wide range of forecasts for the outcome of GDP figures this week likely reflects the 'noise' in the component parts
Roger J Kerr questions whether the historical paradigm that the USD currency value has a reliable inverse price relationship with crude oil prices is broken
12th Sep 22, 8:41am
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Roger J Kerr questions whether the historical paradigm that the USD currency value has a reliable inverse price relationship with crude oil prices is broken
Figures to be released in the coming week will likely show the country stayed well clear of recession in the June quarter - but the outlook for the economy is looking, as the Reserve Bank has indicated, pretty anaemic
11th Sep 22, 6:00am
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Figures to be released in the coming week will likely show the country stayed well clear of recession in the June quarter - but the outlook for the economy is looking, as the Reserve Bank has indicated, pretty anaemic
Roger J Kerr says until there is a change in direction to lower US bond yields and higher US equity markets, the NZD/USD exchange rate will struggle to make meaningful gains
5th Sep 22, 8:40am
Roger J Kerr says until there is a change in direction to lower US bond yields and higher US equity markets, the NZD/USD exchange rate will struggle to make meaningful gains
Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows a lift in business sentiment - but inflation indicators remain 'far too high'
31st Aug 22, 1:27pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows a lift in business sentiment - but inflation indicators remain 'far too high'
Roger J Kerr says given the much more stable food and energy prices, the US Fed’s inflation problem is already solving itself
29th Aug 22, 8:26am
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Roger J Kerr says given the much more stable food and energy prices, the US Fed’s inflation problem is already solving itself
David Hargreaves has a crunch of inflation expectations in which he points out that getting people to predict what they think inflation will be in future is not about whether they can pick a correct number or not
10th Aug 22, 8:30am
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David Hargreaves has a crunch of inflation expectations in which he points out that getting people to predict what they think inflation will be in future is not about whether they can pick a correct number or not
Influential RBNZ survey shows significant fall in expectations of inflation in two years time - but the fall is unlikely to deter the central bank from another 50 point OCR hike next week
8th Aug 22, 3:33pm
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Influential RBNZ survey shows significant fall in expectations of inflation in two years time - but the fall is unlikely to deter the central bank from another 50 point OCR hike next week