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Markets sink as Powell signals faster taper; US retail confidence data soft; Chinese PMIs still trending lower; EU inflation at 30 year high; UST10yr 1.45%; oil sinks, gold lower; NZ$1 = 67.9 USc; TWI-5 = 72.7

Business / news
Markets sink as Powell signals faster taper; US retail confidence data soft; Chinese PMIs still trending lower; EU inflation at 30 year high; UST10yr 1.45%; oil sinks, gold lower; NZ$1 = 67.9 USc; TWI-5 = 72.7

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the Fed boss said the regulator can move faster unwinding its stimulus.

In Congressional testimony today, the head of the US Fed painted the standard picture of "the economy has continued to strengthen" and "inflation will move down significantly over the next year", but he did acknowledge the downside risks of Omicron and "increased uncertainty for inflation". He also suggested that higher inflation justifies a faster unwinding of QE. Markets reacted by seeing a higher and earlier chance of interest rate rises from the Fed, and have re-rated pricing risks. Commodities and bond yields and equities all are falling, and quite sharply as a risk-off tone sweeps over markets.

The widely-watched Conference Board consumer sentiment survey is reporting a slippage in the US, more than the expected hold, and it is being attributed to the bite of inflation. A fall at this time is magnified because it is in the heart of the holiday retail season.

There was also an unexpected retreat in the Chicago PMI reported overnight, which noted a slowdown in new orders, and no respite from the cost increases.

Meanwhile, Canada reported a better than expected Q3 GDP economic expansion. This was underpinned by good household spending and exports.

Japanese industrial production data was disappointing in October.

Meanwhile, the 2020 Japanese census results show its population fell -0.7% down to 126 mln.

China's official November PMIs were reported late yesterday and they are stuck with neither an expansion nor contraction in their manufacturing sector. Their services sector is still expanding but it was tamer than the October level. Both sectors are extending the downward trends that began a year ago.

Their export sector may suffer for a while longer as strict crew quarantines at Chinese ports is keeping ships away. That won't help the global supply chain issues either.

But there are suggestions that Beijing will be easing its environmental standards soon to allow steel mills to ramp up production. That has put a floor under the iron ore price with speculation that it could rise sharply again soon.

Hong Kong retail sales surprised with a better than expected gain, but they are still lower than 2019 equivalents.

India reported Q3 GDP data and a strong recovery but it was not broad-based, with growth disappointing in some key components such as non-financial, non-public services and manufacturing. They may struggle from here unless these sectors pick up.

The Eurozone CPI rate hit 4.9% in November and a sharp jump from the 4.1% rate in October. This was driven by Germany and energy costs, and was enough to make it a 30 year high. This higher rate will put pressure on the ECB to start its QE unwinding, even potentially raise rates.

In Australia, building consent levels fell. A small fall was anticipated, but a large fall was recorded.

But on the 'plus' side, Australia recorded another record current account surplus in the September quarter of almost +AU$24 bln. Still, they owe the rest of the world almost -AU$1.2 tln in foreign debt.

In Australia, Delta cases in Victoria have eased to 918 cases reported there yesterday. There are now 11,417 active cases in the state - and there were another 6 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 179 new community cases reported yesterday, with 2595 active locally acquired cases, and they had 3 deaths yesterday. Queensland is reporting no new cases. The ACT has 6 new cases again. Overall in Australia, just under 87% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus a bit under 6% have now had one shot so far.

The Moderna CEO's downbeat comments about his vaccine's efficacy against Omicron hurt market risk for a while, but BioNTech offered a quire different view for theirs.

The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.45% and -6 bps lower from this time yesterday. The US 2-10 rate curve starts today markedly flatter at +91 bps. Their 1-5 curve is much flatter at just over +93 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is flatter at +135 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate has fallen -6 bps to 1.68%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.88%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is down -2 bps at 2.44%.

Wall Street has given up yesterday's gains, down -1.8% in early afternoon trade today. Overnight, European markets fell between -0.4% and -1.1%. Yesterday Tokyo and Hong Kong each shed -1.6% while Shanghai was flat. The ASX200 gained +0.2% yesterday, and the star of the show was the NZX50 with its +1.5% rise.

The price of gold will start today at US$1774/oz and -US$11 lower than this time yesterday - and falling.

And oil prices have fallen very sharply today, down about -9% or -US$6.50 to be just under US$64.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$67.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opens today soft again but unchanged at just under 67.9 USc and again a 1 year low. Against the Australian dollar we have recovered +½c to 95.9 AUc. Against the euro we are a tad lower at 60.2 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.7, and its lowest since the end of September.

The bitcoin price has slipped to now be at US$56,841 and -1.1% below the level at this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.9%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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121 Comments

David Slack made the best comment yesterday (The Panel, RNZ).

National have gone for a 20th Century man.

Not a 21st Century one.

One wonders when the increasing irrelevance will spell oblivion for that cohort.

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I knew nothing about Luxon until yesterday.  But he looks pretty good in the several interviews I have seen since. 

But the Nats issue is not the leader politician, but the lack of a clear explainable platform. 

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I thought so too. Professional confident delivery a bit boardroom style perhaps but better than anyone in last four years fore sure.And  as well as that platform get rid of some of the relics & wet blankets they still present in Parliament. National  now dearly need to commence selecting & recruiting some credible work/world experiences contenders electorate by electorate to contest the next election. Shouldn’t be too hard. Other parties are hardly overrun with anything much better are they.

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8

It was pretty important that Bridges wasn’t re-elected as leader. We desperately need a decent opposition to challenge Adern and Simon is, nor ever will be, capable of being the person to do that. 

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He was certainly having trouble explaining his property portfolio on RNZ this morning

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I think this will be his downfall - if he had serious ambitions to be the inclusive leader of the country and not just a support mechanism to the ‘haves’ - he would sell the properties and put his assets into a blind trust. Until then, he will come across as a voice for property investor class - which is fine, but when people who have children leaving the country because they can’t own a house and he personally owns 7…well it’s not a principled basis for good, inclusive leadership 

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19

Why does he have 7 properties? Because the taxation and financial setting of this country encourage that. He has just done what he was incentivised to do, and until that changes - nothing else will change.

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Now that he's built up a property portfolio do you think that he's likely to change those incentives if given the opportunity?

Having a real estate portfolio seems to disencentivize making changes to the current system.

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Yes I saw that, 7 houses, and he is thinking of renegging on the agreement with labour for 3 units on auckland sections, a bad start for Luxton.

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We desperately need, across the western world, leaders to come forward who will foster a sense of inclusiveness and cooperation between people. At present it’s a game of popularity regardless of the long term damage - turning people within society against each other, into a competition, or issuesi to us vs them. It’s the lowest form of leadership imaginable. 

Doing something because you have incentives to do isn’t a sign of strong leadership, especially if those actions aren’t well principled and might be damaging to other people. A real leader will do things to make life better for other people, not worse. 

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It is a game of popularity so that must be played but once you get into government you can really show your leadership and implement the very policies you were elected on.  Unlike the Labour Party.

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Good to see him helping to solve the housing crisis. Many MP’s own investment houses. If he was invested in shares the media would pick on that. Trust red radio to focus on the realm issues (sarc)

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Yeah we all know that ... and Luxon knows it too.

But we all have to put with him not telling the truth from day one of his leadership. 

what else isn’t he telling the truth on? 
how can you turn something around if you can’t accept it is going in the wrong direction.... build more houses I guess and hope for the best... so what’s changed?

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Have Labour done anything to make the housing situation better or improve inequality? They did talk about it before the first term in power and I have to admit, the results have been impressive while totally out of their control right? 

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annual gains of 30% in the last 12 months ---  up over 50% since tehy took power --  results have been very impressive! 

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So you are happy with the Labour party?  Historical house price increases and wealth divide?  I would suggest he could not do worse (only similarly bad).  On that basis alone he is worth voting for.

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The media will latch onto this like a dog with a bone, and rightly so. My popcorn is ready! If he was smart he would sell a few and tell everyone about it, to really look like he cares. But he won't because he likes money.

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I know right, like who likes money?  What a freak.

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Question is he better than Seymour - I'm still voting yellow

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He was active in carbon/sustainability with Air NZ, so hopefully this will translate into a mindset change with Nat on enviro issues.

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So he was active in greenwash you mean? There is nothing sustainable about the aviation industry, regardless of how many coats of dark green paint you give it. 

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The rising tide is back. "We will bring the tide back in and lift all boats” said Luxon today. Translated, "the one finger to a liveable future is back". 

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lol, the sky is not falling, one finger is better than none surely?  Factually (sorry for that curse word) we are so, so, so much better off as a society since 1990 we have taken 1.4 Billion people out of extreme poverty. (https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2019/11/Extreme-Poverty-projection-b… )

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JaO - if you were doing that courtesy of resource draw-down, you were doing it temporarily.

No point in crowing about that - you just look silly.

 

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I was suggesting that we are not going backwards in terms of quality of life.  The data shows we have made progress in those measures.  If you call  reporting that data as "crowing" then you will have missed my intention.

Resource draw down is a simple extrapolation around population, that is the real issue not often addressed.  

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Actually J O P the sky kind of is falling. If one keeps up to date with the extreme weather related damage civilisation is suffering virtually daily, you might get more of a handle on it? Of course that is just one of the "externalities" beginning to drag on the temporary exponential growth experiment.

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Well I think we are going to have 2 fairly rocky years ahead of us, where inflation may run away on us, with ridiculous house prices and unemployment may start to edge higher. The sheepels may be restless come the next election as the chickens come home to roost, so perceptions may change very quickly.

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The perfect choice for a 20th century party. 

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Quoting a left wing commentator on Red Radio, hardly a balanced approach.

If 21st century politicians are as ineffective and incompetent as Ardern, I'll take Luxon any day

He can answer questions with knowledge, doesn't have to be provided with a pre brief so he can have his talking points ready.......

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that is a problem we have red radio and blue radio , no independent talk radio anymore that looks at just the issues and debates them  (hopefully Today FM will capture the middle ground) , both stations slant the argument and some hosts and journalists cannot even hide their distain for politicians of a party they dont like, even poor DS does not get much of a go on blue radio and i have never heard any other ACT MP on it. i end up flicking between both  to try to get balance 

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That sounds like the right approach, trying for some balance.  I used to do that but I just could not stomach the red-radio culture-vultures any longer so now I look for podcasts, BH and the KaKa is worth a listen I think.

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AklC - It's NOTHING to do with left or right (or yellow or green). FFS.

It's to do with humankind fitting into/onto a finite planet.

So far, he seem not to have a clue. Genuinely, not avoidingly, clueless.

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21st Century looks like a fizer thus far, pointless wars (no victor only losers), economic stupidity and historical wealth divide, are you advertising his 20th Century ethics and values as a positive?

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But on the 'plus' side, Australia recorded another record current account surplus in the September quarter of almost +AU$24 bln. Still, they owe the rest of the world almost -AU$1.2 tln in foreign debt.

Et Tu? US Steals Most of Australia's Sale to China Amid Trade Row, Finds Study

The university's Australia-China Relations Institute has compiled the trade data for the first nine months of 2021, showing the value of 12 Australian exports to China affected by sanctions, which fell in value $12.6 billion in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2019.

The study has claimed that the biggest beneficiary is Australia's security ally -- the US, which increased its own sales of the same goods to China by $4.6 billion. Canada and New Zealand increased their sales by $1.1 billion and $786 million respectively.

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Which is the better man & why?

 

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Look forward, ascertain, and ask?

Global population in ecological overshoot: by 2050 there might be 3-5 billion extant. By 2100; 1-3 billion. Fossil energy draw-down by 2050? Essentially nil. Economic activity? With luck, 15% of current (Rickover, 1957). Chance of NZ being invaded by 2050 (either formally or informally)? 100%. Ability to service a city like Auckland, ex fossil energy? Nil.

Now ask who you'd want to lead us through that bottleneck?

 

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"Chance of NZ being invaded by 2050 (either formally or informally)? 100%."

And those who think our geographical 'isolation' will save us are misguided.

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those are some very serious postulations PDK. What you are suggesting will be essentially a fight for survival. This will be a form of Armageddon, as survivors will be reverted to subsistence living. The fight for resources will be extreme. So thinking about it I would have to suggest that it is a possible scenario. To avoid it a controlled draw down, taking all the population with it, will be required. It will need to start now. Should've started 20 years ago.

Or we just continue as we are and the planet will do the roll back and we will be the virus cleansed from the surface!

If the whole population is not taken, those at the bottom will fight back, violently, and no one will be safe. Is Luxon prescient enough, skilled enough, realistic enough and what ever else it takes to put us on this path? Or will he just take the rich?

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Probably, like all evangelicals, preparing for the rapture. So can we really expect a change of direction from a God botherer? My money would go on an acceleration of the current direction!

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No generalisations there!!  The current direction of historical wealth divide and house price growth is a Labour direction, so your point of view is that he would remain in the hands off aroha first trends of current Labour government?

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1

I guess we'll never know what Labours alternative response to the missing years of the pandemic would have been? The GFC was the historical turning point. Dropping interest rates, money printing and asset bubbles have been ubiquitous since then, globally. Labour has just been riding on the coattails of whatever that can kicking achieved. One thing I do know from the evangelicals I associate with, is they are universally naive and oblivious to physics. 

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4

The pandemic started in Feb 2020 Labour were elected in 2017.  What was wrong with doing something in the three years before the pandemic?

Asset bubbles has been ubiquitous but we are at the head of the rankings in terms of housing affordability.  The worst.  In the world.  Under Labour.

Your generalisations about evangelicals says more about you than them.  As casual Google search will show you that there are a number of them well represented at the top tiers of science. https://biologos.org/articles/a-very-brief-history-of-christians-in-sci…

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You are making the mistake of believing I'm a die hard Labour supporter. :-) My opinion is that they are the better of two really bad options. What I would say, is I recognise the wheels of government grind at glacial pace. The huge momentum in the system, from National, was never going to change in one term and certainly not with the deafening noise of lobbyists in their ear every waking moment.

 The worst bubble? Yes. A small market is always likely to experience greater swings than a large market. 

 Interesting reference. I would point out that the early scientists on that list are not truly representative of what would be a modern day evangelical. Historically religion was all encompassing and really the only game in town that allowed some respite from grinding poverty. That is why all the early names in science, were also names in the church. In spite of being overwhelmingly intellectually stifling, it was one of the few places that allowed the freedom of time to think, if so inclined. Everyone was a christian, because the consequences of being labelled a heretic were unpleasant. The modern list speaks volumes. What isn't identified is whether the christianity is of the old school type, or the extreme modern version, where "science" is largely made up to fit their narrative?

 

 

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And, darn it, the very tools that would enable a 'controlled drawdown of the population' have just been verboten to the masses.  Still, COVID, the gangs, the variants, there's hope yet.  Who is to be first, though?

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Yeah, this is the problem with pdk. While I share his concerns about drawdown, extrapolating out current issues (drawdown/climate/energy) has its limits when it comes to human ingenuity.  We always seem to find a way to make stuff better, often not the way we thought we would. Necessity is the mother of invention.  Religious leaders have been claiming "the end is nigh!" for centuries, based on their own belief systems. I hope PDK as an intelligent human considers that he may be wrong, we may see our way out of it yet.

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Linear thinking, optimism bias, nope, I prefer ecological/physics facts to work with.

Download Catton's Overshoot. Read it. Then come back to me saying you're still optimistic.

And it's not 'invention' we need - that's a belief in techno-fixes, by any other name - it's energy we need. And the mineral resources to transmit/store/deliver it. Tech can only deliver efficiencies - until it can't.

 

 

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Now who has linear thinking? 

"In a single hour, the amount of power from the sun that strikes the Earth is more than the entire world consumes in an year."

(https://www.businessinsider.com.au/this-is-the-potential-of-solar-power…)

Not only can we find a way out of our current (very poor) energy generation issues but I believe we will.  Whether the current energy extraction methods effect on the environment will allow us the time to reach out solar energy escape velocity is the more interesting problem.

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Yeah those links are a lot better (yes, sarc).  Any useful counter?

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The amount of solar panels required to meets our global energy needs would cover an area equivalent to the total global urbanised land area. That's a lot of panels and good luck building that out quickly.

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PV is not the technology that will alone save us, it will take a combination of all our energy tech solutions to get us out of jail that over-population has put us in.  Building out PV will take time but once we start to see the impact of the electrification of transport on the price of electricity this will happen at an exponential rate.  Solid state batteries will arrive FY23-24 and then we will be able to at least see an exit point.

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Answer:  Admiral Rickover

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Odd Wagers on Negative Rates Return as Fed-Hike Bets Are Pared

The bets on negative-rate hedging showed up in CME data released after Monday’s session, with open interest rising in several September 2022 eurodollar options with call strikes above 100 -- which equates to a negative yield. That reflects flows on Monday which, according to traders familiar with the matter, saw some 20,000 contracts bought across the two call strikes.

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Yeah, my cravings to see a bizarre negative OCR are back.  The 20s are going to be awesome!

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Sad day yesterday - I had my final personal training session at the gym ... from Friday my trainer cannot come back as he doesn't have his vaccine certificate.

I knew he hadn't been vaccinated, but had always assumed it was something he really didn't want to do.

However, he opened up that his wife is vehemently anti-vaccination (at least this particular one) and had threatened to bundle herself and the kids off if he went to get it done. 

He would get it done, but is then scared of the consequences in his home life.

What a rubbish state of affairs for a decent family man like him - pick between feeding your kids, or seeing your kids.

I don't think I've ever felt so morose throughout this whole pandemic. 

 

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11

"had threatened to bundle herself and the kids off": why in this century do women still think they have more rights over kids? Us males need to stick up for ourselves a bit more.  

It is sad, and I do actually think it is cool in a way that people are prepared to risk everything to stand up for their beliefs. But what is the alternative? We just allow people to unnecessarily spread disease in their job?

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Want all the perks of equality but without giving up the good bits of inequality. I often ask my wife why she never gets me flowers, goes down a treat :D

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6

I'm not sure what the answers are here.

It just hit me hard to see someone put in that position. 

Hopefully he works something out. I'll be first in line to keep paying him if he comes back to work, I made that very clear.

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quite a few PT wont get the jab, they dont believe in putting something unnatural into their bodies, BUT take every supplement under the sun 

which is more harmful for your health?  something designed by a corp to create antibodies or some chemicals created by a corp to enhance your body

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The persistent hints of inflammatory effects and blood clots don't help, especially among fitness dudes.  I was reluctant to be vaxxed but went ahead in the end, mostly because I can't afford the govt and employer sanctions that are building up.

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My brother who is as fit as you can get, got the vaccine on Friday a week ago. He has been violently sick with vomiting and diarrhea for coming on 5 days now. It def comes with risks.

The whole world would be better off if we actually had open and honest debate instead of bullying and peer pressure. 

(I did the risk analysis and decided to get it, but we shouldn't segregate those who choose not to). Vaccinated still get infected and spread it too....

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Open and honest debate?  In truth its a balance between rights and obligations to society.

Those for "free choice" have an absolute right to it, but they cannot push the consequences of free choice onto others  (they are 10 times more likely to get infected, much higher viral loads so more likely to infect others, breeding ground for mutations, 25x more likely to be hospitalised - blocking out beds for those who need ordinary care like cancer or surgery).  They have to bear the cost of that choice.

Like smokers (separated public locations and can't smoke in public places because of their second hand smoke) and drinkers (age limits and controls on their ability to drive because of their impact on others when they drink drive), and gangs, there are limits on the choices of people to impact others.

I'm strongly libertarian, however part of our obligation to society is to play our part in protecting it.  And a little bit selfish in making sure I don't die from COVID might also play a part in that. 

That open debate just can't be had with anti-vax people (and I know, I have anti-vax friends who can't enter my house now., and anti-vax employees who can't understand why their colleagues don't want to be up close and personal...).  Ask the multi millions who have died from Covid, and the deniers who asked for the vaccination on their death bed. 

So yes, a person can have the freedom to choose not to be vaccinated, but they have to bear the consequences of that freedom.  But they don't have the right to inflict the consequences of that choice on others.

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FYI in the last two weeks in NZ those numbers are 13x more likely to get it and 87x more likely to be hospitalised (although the numbers are small so high margin of error). 

Who contracted Covid-19 in the last two weeks? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-tracker-how-…

 

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Sounds like you work for Pfizer, doing manipulated clinical trials.  Better off observing society than believing Pfizer sponsored media outlets.  

7 vaccinated men take private plane to Ohio for a golf outing.  On returning, 7 sick, 6 testing positive.  I was not invited (unvaccinated) and never got sick.  How do you crunch those numbers?  NZ has been Pfizered, by Big Pharma!  It is a virus from the cold family and we don't take vaccines for colds, at least I don't.

 

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This is an excellent post thank you for making this position, which I share, clear.

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Association doesn't imply causality!!!

How do you know it wasn't co-incidence, and it was actually the dodgy chicken sandwich that's got him.

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This is not a vaccine issue.

It is an abuse issue.

She is clearly exceptionally controlling when she puts the family and his job as the stakes.

Love and respect of one’s partners view doesn’t seem to be of value to her. It is a relationship that isn’t going to last.

She is simply an egocentric nasty person - couldn’t give a stuff about the relationship and needs of her children and their father.

The issue to her today is vaccine, tomorrow it will be something else. The relationship is dead as far as she is concerned.

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20

I don't disagree with you.

I'd say he would be far better off earning a living and providing for his two young kids, as the relationship won't last either way as you say.

Better to be unhappy at home with money than without. At least that way he can give his kids some normality (and if he gets his vax passport he can take them out over summer). 

 

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Is it just dawning on you plonkers that that is what our new apartheid system is?

Shutting people out of society !!!

Great

As long as you don't know them 

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I think most people are aware of this fact. What is the solution though? To shut everyone out of society forever through endless lockdowns etc? Or to let Covid take over our health system and for many to die?

To some the vaccine is considered a way to exclude people, but to me the vaccine is a way to allow people to get out of lockdown and lead a normalish life. The people who don't take it have a lot more restrictions, the kind of restrictions we all would have without the vaccine, that is their choice.

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no simply to open up and allow peoples actions and choices to translate into consequences as with every other area in life.    Our vaccination rates are way high enough to prevent our health system beign overwhelmed ---  numbers in Auckland are already dropping significantly --  not surprising with less than 80000 eligible people left unvaccinated -    

Its complete overkill at this stage --  180 deaths a WEEK from Heart Issues - 190 a WEEK from cancer -  how many from covid ???   many of the heart and cancer are also easily preventable by regular scanning to detect issues early when they are easily treatable - 

look at the numbers -- first day of booster over 20,000 turned up --  65-75% of the population need no encouragement, bribes, threats to get vaccinated --  in fact they will rush out to have it done! - 

Are we nearly there yet --- yes --  dotn expect peak daily cases to exceed 400 a day -- the MOH reckons it will be lower than that !!  Auckland is 1/3 of the population and the third that lives in closest and most dense living and working --- It wont spread anywhere near as fast outside of Auckland Wellington and Christchurch -- all of whom are in excess of 90% first doses and only Christchurch as a whole is at 89% 2nd dose -- 

this is now a massive tool of Social and Political control -  and yes i chose to be vaccinated and yes i am booked for a booster early December 

 

 

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I somewhat agree with you, but I do think the traffic light system is sensible, look what is happening in Europe. Do we really want the chance of more lockdowns just to give the 5% antivax the same freedoms that the other 95% have given themselves. 

I think it would be better for North Island to go to Orange and South Island to Green, but I can see why the government has taken a cautious approach as it is hard to get case numbers down once they explode. 

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Look at what the 'media' is reporting in Europe (Big Pharma sponsored media).  The traffic light system is not a 'freedom'.

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The vaccination is a way to normal????? 

Like Europe?

Or a way to the new variant and boosters???

Something Doesn't stack up...

It's a fairytale panacea sold to the masses to hide bigger "growth is dead, resources tapped, debt imploding " issues ...

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Younger and smarter

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Vaccines will not get you out of lockdowns, to lead a normal life.  Eliminating government mandates will.  You can still get infected and be transmissive if you have been vaccinated.  Stop blaming the unvaccinated as Fauci and Big Pharma preach for profit with their experimental drugs.  Just what are the long-term effects of the vaccinated?  Will they be a danger to myself?  Will ADE, create cancers, worse mutations, never ending health issues with the vaccines inflammatory responses.  Why are you still living in fear if you have been vaccinated?  New Zealand has been conned by yet another American Pharmaceutical scam.  The unvaccinated do a better job of eliminating the virus by getting infected and building a better antibody response to the next variant.  Take the vaccine at your own risk, but the long-term tells me you selfishly underestimate your immune system.

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With some serious personal experience in this area, the Family Court, and law are significant at screwing most men (definitely not all) The Child Support Act does the damage as for separated parents it requires one to be designated the custodial parent and the other the Liable parent. Liable for what? Money. This is just about cost recovery of any benefit that is paid. Putting kids first, irrespective of what the Court says, is secondary. Money is the driver.

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murray86 - This was not my experience, at least 25 years ago.

Most men do not want the responsibility of children after a break up. I was determined to be involved in my children's live's so went for 50/50 custody.

So we both became custodial parents.

Money is the driver when only one parent normally the mother is prepared to take custodial control, hence why the other parent pays rather than the state having to pick up all the tab for a failed relationship

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My experience was the opposite a little longer back than that. the Family Court shut me out. Proving my ex lied in her affidavits only made it worse and harder for me. I was close to bankruptcy when I finally woke up and figured that justice was a myth and I'd never get a fair shake in the family court. The final cut was the judge saying I was nothing but a trouble maker. 

To be fair though the problem was the judge not the court as a whole, as I am aware that there are different judges with different views. It was just that when we tried for another one the application was intercepted and denied. The cost was and is huge, but my understanding and resilience much greater.

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Anecdotally this is almost exactly the same for a good friend of mine.  I thought it was an anomaly until I had a senior contract role in the Justice Sector.  There is not doubt at all that the Judges are kings of their courts.  As part of a team that was looking to standardise the way we treat common crimes we were blocked early.  Judges and Judges alone will determine how the process of justice will be run in their court.  No two courts are the same, a Registrar from one court could not go an be useful in another court.

It is safe to say, based on my personal lived experience that justice is in the main a set of variables that only luck can see you get on the right side of.  It also goes without saying that our crime legislation is bereft of appropriate scale for even the most cursory examinations against natural justice.

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Parents should support their children financially before the state is required to. I have my own mouths to feed before worrying about someone else's kids.

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I would have thought that with that sort of wacky thinking she is not fit to have custody of the kids.  When it comes to the point the court may agree.  Terribly sad situation for all that and it is so disappointing that the whole issue seems to have descended into some sort of tribal battle of ideologies rather than rational exploration of the science.  That goes for the government as much as the anti-vaxers.

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Perhaps the wacky thinking; is people taking an experimental drug, still not approved by the Big Pharma funded FDA, under the disguise of science.  Why is natural immunity not considered a science?  Perhaps there is no profit to be had in natural immunity, for the likes of Pfizer!

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Will his wife be saying the same thing as they (inevitably) get COVID?

I know you can't argue the point with the non believers, because mostly its not a rational argument - like arguing with Teenagers...... but fortunately they are by far in the minority

For most of us the decision was much simpler, the choice of lesser harm

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'Non believers', appears it is a religion.  Jews were in the minority also, doesn't make it right.  Not being a rational argument is like saying 'the science is settled'.  Sorry but debating science, is science.

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Have a friend who works out at the gym a heap in a similar situation. So he just brought all his own equipment. 

Thats the way, just take your business elsewhere. 

Maybe your mate should do the same and offer nondiscriminatory at home training? I bet his business would boom. 

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Yeah the "black market" economy could boom in the coming months!

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Small businesses do get created through this sort of adverse circumstance, we saw this in 2008-09, specifically though, with enterprises like this that are about breaking the law they do tend to go through a rough merger period with others of that ilk (gangs).

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If your view of a "decent family man" is to not reduce his chances of having a serious illness and potentially crippling himself for life because his wife is to dim to understand the science then you and I do not agree on the standard.

Men who are unable to lead their families to safer places and take careful data-based decisions are poor family men. 

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It's great you can read a post on a website and know what is best for that man and his family JAO.

 

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I don't, science does.

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And the science is not settled.

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I don't think you got the point of my comment unfortunately ... 

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"This higher rate will put pressure on the ECB to start its QE unwinding, even potentially raise rates": gee what does it take for them to raise rates? Weren't QE and low rates there just to stimulate inflation, and if so isn't that job done?

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The Eurozone CPI rate hit 4.9% in November and a sharp jump from the 4.1% rate in October. This was driven by Germany and energy costs, and was enough to make it a 30 year high. This higher rate will put pressure on the ECB to start its QE unwinding, even potentially raise rates.

More Trouble For EU? Gazprom "Doesn't Expect Decline In Gas Prices In Coming Months"

What's great for Gazprom is disastrous for Europe as higher gas prices appear to be sticking around as the Northern Hemisphere winter is just three weeks away. Ahead of winter, Bloomberg's weather forecasts show average temperatures to be well below a 30-year average. Power prices across Europe spiked on Monday. In France, power for Monday jumped to the highest levels since 2012. Countries like Germany mainly use gas for heating, which means if a brutal winter is ahead, Gazprom is correct. Prices are headed higher. 

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The EU has deftly manoeuvred itself into a total dependence on Far Eastern goodwill : Russia for energy, China for raw materials and markets.  Such acumen is rare and wondrous to perceive.

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That's what happens when you let lord market think for you. 

 

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Population of Japan continues to go down. 

It's a good thing for the average Japanese person. 

Provides choice for Japanese of the best places to live versus New Zealanders struggling to find anywhere at all because our population explosion.

In the 1960s our middle income single income family lived in a Mount Eden villa.  The Dominion Road bus was fast.  We had a bach twenty feet from the sand just an hour away.

All that is gone. 

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And their GDP per capita in the 8 years leading up to covid steadily increased by over 10%.  So all the propaganda that a falling population damages the economy is utter rubbish.

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita

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Thanks Chris.  I am allergic to the idea that people have to do it hard so the economy does better.  A frank stupidity. 

But it's common for our business leaders to run that one - always a little disguised of course. 

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KH, if you think about it, the better everyone does, the better the economy does. If policies are enacted, as they are, that favour limited groups, such as the wealthy and influential, then the economy becomes vulnerable and suffers in the long run. Common sense really - the more money people have to spread around, the better everyone does.

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Indeed it is, to even suggest that requires that people ignore the progress of automation and robotics.  It's the way forward but will the host planet survive long enough?

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Thanos was right

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China's population also falling and curve will steepen over next 30 years as is Russia's  -so all these changes could have positive implications for the planet  - if our leaders have vision

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Anyone else think that Russia is going to seize Eastern Ukraine in the next couple of months? They have put these modifications on there tanks to protect them from the Javelin anti-tank missiles. These are basically last minute additions with a welder. Not a factory job. Why would you go though the trouble of doing this if you were not going to invade?

Not sure of the wider implications on the NZ markets if this happens but can't be good.

Between this and Omicron. Could be one of those summers.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2021/11/29/russian-tanks-m…

 

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No.  The Russians are not going to invade Eastern Ukraine.  You asked.

So much USA politicing on that.

This is better.  https://bangordailynews.com/2021/11/30/opinion/opinion-contributor/ukra…

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Yep - the West is better at propaganda.

And the weaker never make the first move. That is why the vast majority of belligerent moves since WW2, have been by the US. This stronger/weaker thing is why small nations - understanding they can't fight one-to-one - go for nuclear. They know they'll only have one or two, versus the US's 4,000, but they can call bluff with 1-2. Can't without. We denigrate the heck out of them for attempting to have 1-2, when was the last time you saw a thoughtful media piece (I almost stopped the sentence there) questioning the 4,000?

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Its always comforting to know, someone like a reality TV star can control 4000 nuclear warheads. What's to question?

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why would they, its one of the poorest countries in europe ripe with corruption, at the moment kept going by the EU, why would russia want to take that on, they already have the bits they wanted (crimea) 

 

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What better way to add to the confusion of China making a play for Taiwan?

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But What If...Or, Here We Go Again.

Russia does not need 404, in fact, Russians overwhelmingly do not want those people in their lives, they don't want to pay for them, and they want them to stay away from Russia in every conceivable way, bar pure geography which cannot be changed. And that's the problem for Russia, because in the end Russia will have to deal with this shithole, which like a cyst placed itself at Russia's South-Western borders and continues to deteriorate towards cancerous tumor with increasing speed. The United States, realistically, doesn't need 404 either, because while the US still exercises the idea of using 404 as a anti-Russia ram both in geopolitical and economic senses, and sleeps and dreams about Russia "invading" this territory, the US is facing one serious challenge here: what IF US desires come true and Russia DOES indeed decide to end this drama and finish off Nazi regime in Kiev? 

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Odd how most of the countries that fell within Moscow's historical influence are in the "shithole" category? What could be the reason?

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Naryshkin Verbatim.

The head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergei Naryshkin went on record yesterday:

Translation:  PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKY, November 27 - RIA Novosti. There will be no "Russian invasion" of Ukraine, the allegations about it are a malicious propaganda action by the US State Department, said Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service. "I must reassure everyone: nothing like this will happen," Naryshkin said in an interview with Sergei Brilev on the Vesti on Saturday program on the Russia 1 TV channel, answering a question about the statements of the American side about the alleged Russian invasion of Ukraine. "In general, everything that is happening now around this topic is, of course, such a malicious propaganda action by the US State Department ... The State Department is pumping these fakes, this lie to its allies, and the leaders of the media, and the leaders of political science centers of the United States of America. so that they multiplied and multiplied and multiplied this lie. And they inflated a rather big bubble around it ."

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I have a number of Russian friends and their consensus (I asked this morning) is that there will be no invasion in the next few months.  Putin will not consider it worth the risk.

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1st  phase of resident visa's opens today good luck to all those applying and hope the process is smoother than normal, i have a lot of friends applying so hopefully a great xmas for them

First round of applications for new NZ Resident Visa opens (1news.co.nz)

 

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Another 150,000+ residents... my property portfolio thanks you.

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And just in time for the New Social Credit Score rollout, Stuff reports fake VacPass offers by the usual suspects.

Own goal by GubMint - pure amateur hour pass delivery- editable pdf's FFS.....

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They have a scannable QR code. Or have they managed to fake that too?

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It's super easy; I use them for work purposes all the time... 

For example:

https://www.patrick-wied.at/static/qrgen/

"This app is for decoding and generating QR codes online"

 

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