Here's my summary of the key events from overnight, with news National is continuing to hold a comfortable lead over the Opposition, despite its support falling 7% in August.
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows support for National has dropped to 46%, having spiked in July following the announcement of a $1 billion housing infrastructure policy. It's still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance, which has 40% support.
Labour has yet again failed to get any traction, with its support levels stagnant at 25.5%. Support for the Green Party is up 3% to 14.5%, while potential king-maker, NZ First is up 2.5% to 9.5%. Despite people's discontent around issues like housing affordability and low wage growth, 58% of voters say New Zealand is heading in the right direction.
There are signs Australia's residential construction boom has peaked. While 2016 will be a record year for new home construction, the Housing Industry Association expects "sharper falls" in 2017 and 2018. Its call comes further to its new home sales slumping nearly 10% in July, off the back of a jump in June.
Over to the US, consumer spending increased as expected, for the fourth month in a row, in July. The 0.3% increase was boosted by strong demand for cars. Personal income growth also rose 0.4%, pointing to a pickup in economic growth.
Yet with inflation remaining low, there are question marks over whether this gives the Federal Reserve enough ammunition to hike interest rates next month.
In other news, China's top 500 enterprises reported their first annual decline in combined revenues in 15 years, last year. While their revenues still totalled nearly US$9 trillion, they slid 0.07%.
The China Daily says the decline largely represented the overcapacity-plagued coal, steel, oil and chemicals industries. The service sector contributed 41% of the revenues, outperforming the manufacturing sector, at 39%, for the first time.
In New York, the UST 10yr yield has eased back overnight to 1.59%.
The oil price is down fractionally. The US benchmark price is at US$47 a barrel, while the Brent benchmark is at US$49 a barrel.
The gold price is stable at US$1,323/oz.
The New Zealand dollar is recouping some of the losses it suffered further to the Fed's Chair on Saturday (NZ time) saying the case for a rate hike had strengthened. It’s at 72.6 US¢, 95.8 AU¢ and 64.9 euro cents. The TWI index is up to 75.9.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes from yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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72 Comments
Clearly those 58% are not asthmatics.
"Common medications such as a steroid inhaler for asthma costs over $300 (US) a month in the U.S., compared to about $35 (US) in France. Insulin, a life-saving medication for diabetics, is about eight times more expensive here".
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/us-drug-prices-remain-high-generic-competi…
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I was wondering the same thing Basel. I get phoned up from time to time to do a survey but we are one of the dwindling number of households with a conventional land line. Heaps of people (younger, poorer?) only have cell phones, many don't bother with email. A lot of households don't even have a house!
So how is this (Aussie) outfit polling people that represent a broad spectrum of society? I couldn't find out on their website, perhaps they go door to door and car to car?
Linklater
All finance houses and banks were given the same opportunity to have there depositors guaranteed by the Crown, some faulted like SCF and the crown paid out to the mum and dads .
These were turbulent times during the GFC and stabilising finance markets was a key driver for govt
Don't have the detail , but there were rigorous hurdles imposed by govt to comply with rules
Thanks for that. I had retired to live in NZ just a few years before the GFC,but fortunately didn't get involved with any of the finance companies,as I have always been a stockmarket investor.
I know that many people lost a great deal of money in finance companies. Why were companies like Hanover not in the scheme? Did they not apply or did they apply and were turned down?
Well ,, you are right ... for example: every time Mr. Phil Twyford opens his trap and starts crying and whinging on TV to save the homeless with twisted numbers like he did this weekend ..more and more "floating"voters will sway towards the Right camp ....
Does anyone wants him to be the future Housing minister - I don't think so, but don't take my word for it ..ask around !!
What 58% approval means is that regardless of the party driving the politics in the country , 58% of people are satisfied with the current outcome and think that we are moving ahead --- the Left forgets ( or ignores) the fact that the opposition has a great roll in shaping policy and certainly 58% are not all Nat supporters !! .. but Labour and the Left are tired of being the underdogs for 9 years so they just want the helm .. even if by defining my son living with his parents as HOMELESS - go figure!!
Count this baby boomer in plus all my whanua. Get out the vote, spread the word to those who often find it hard to vote but are most affected by national's do nothing.
9 years of doing nothing but let the cancer metastise from Akl to the rest of NZ. If someone hasn't performed its time to get rid of the deadwood and give the other team a go. That way government evolves - see New Labour in the UK.
The baby boomers will all start becoming NZ First voters (irrespective of what party they usually support). NZ Frist has targetted elderly voters with bribes (Gold card anyone) and memories of the good old days (before the yellow peril invaded)...
Winston will sell that narrative and attract more and more elderly to his party. That is why National cannot even discuss increasing the retirement age as the stream of elderly National voters moving to NZ First would become a Tsunami.
I expect NZ First to promise a "plantanium card" to over 65s in the next election giving them free power and discounted Air NZ flights (and a pint of toddler's blood;). Let the bidding begin.
HeavyG
Perhaps you are right,but I.m not so sure.I am in that demographic and I wouldn't touch NZ First with the proverbial barge pole and I am pretty sure that many of those I know are confirmed Nats. I'm a Greenie,though if the Air NZ flights were heavily discounted,well,we all have our price!!
Winnie P will get the votes from the normally don't voters. The people who see him as about the only chance to fix immigration, which has been on a suicidal acceleration in the past few years.
58% isn't much, in fact it is downright gloomy. Most people will say yes even when they mean no, it's called optimism bias, and it's a good thing ;)
I'm not surprised by this at all. It is certainly the feeling I get on the street as it were. What you disappointed people need is an overtly Nationalist party that is supported by the emerging alt-Right however most here could fairly be described as classic left so there is very little chance of a victory over National. NZ's culture and demographics have moved too far for there to be any radical change....which may turn out to be a good thing. It makes for fairly dull politics though.
How was KS good governance exactly? Making saving an institution hi-jacked by finance company fees and controlled by IRD essentially making it overly bureaucratic when they simply could of enhanced personal saving habits by removing RWT? Then to add to the stupidity, not offering a government deposit guarantee in conjunction with it. KS was just an election bribe like any other
Both terrible polices that distort, as for WFF whilst I can see the premise, the mechanism for delivery is inefficient.
in my mind any distribution of wealth through government is very inefficient, for every dollar they take off me how much of it arrives at the end user and how much is eaten away in administration costs
On the contrary, the Greens are equally deluded into thinking you can support natural heritage & human/economic growth.... We are way in overshoot - the planet will kick back regardless of what politicians do or say
The ONLY solution is way less humans, and its not a vote winner.
I guess so.
What is really worrying is that Dear Leader & Co will now be fully convinced they have a divine right to rule, the people love them and they can do what the hell they like: sell us out to multinational corporations from hell and Asian gangsters and flood the country with desperate third world labour.
Lovely!
not everyone is happy new indian/asian party now started will be interesting to see which main party they take votes from
The constitution also has a clear focus on immigration, stating it wants to develop immigration policies to allow international students, migrants and refugees to settle sooner into a comfortable life in New Zealand and crack down on crime, including assaults and exploitation of students.
But Mr Nauhria says there'll be policies for everyone.
"Initially we will be talking about our Asian people and Indian people
http://www.newshub.co.nz/politics/nzs-first-political-party-dedicated-t…
Really? Maori,Mana parties focused on Maori issues. NZ First party with issues mostly directed towards old people & has a record of negative views towards Asians.
Yet this new Political Party is instantly judged as racist? I think this is a good thing for Asian New Zealanders who finally has a party that represents their community & voice who don't get much representation in the NZ Parliament despite being 13% of the New Zealand population.
it is racist because it will be based o the needs of certain races to the exclusion of others, exactly the same as the mana and maori parties.
as for NZ first I have not heard them spouting policies over any particular NZ ethnic group. they do target immigration and the benefits to NZ which have just as many negative outcomes if the volume and skillset are set to high.
the same point labour is now making ironically
as for national they just see the money flow in with high immigration as a good thing, but now services are stretched police, hospitals , schools the expenditure also needs to rise, and where is the money going to come from to pay for it, what have we got left to sell. debt is 100 billion and still growing
as for the greens please they don't know what they want
They don't think they have a divine right to rule, or that they can do what the hell they like.
They think that they have been elected to Government , which gives them a right and indeed a mandate to govern; and they know that in governing, they need to take account of the electorate's wishes and welfare if they want to remain in Government after the next election.
Please give an example of the Government selling us out to a multinational corporation from hell?
Let's give socialism at try! " VENEZUELA’S MAN-MADE humanitarian crisis is deepening. AP reports that the typical resident of Caracas, the capital, spends 35 hours a month waiting in line to buy food, and 9 in 10 say they can’t find enough . After the government of Nicolás Maduro opened six border crossings to neighboring Colombia on Aug. 13, about 380,000 Venezuelans poured across in the first eight days, desperately seeking supplies. Sackings of food warehouses by hungry mobs have been reported; 50 animals in the Caracas zoo are said to have starved to death. Meanwhile, Mr. Maduro refuses to allow aid shipments into the country, contending they are unneeded. "
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/venezuelas-hung…
Norway has strong social policies such as high taxation, with all your education hospitals etc provided. The trouble with the silly all or nothingers like yourself is that in order to justify not using parts of both capitalism and socialism, you choose the worst examples of things to justify your stance. There IS such a thing as middle ground you know!!
And as for countries that prevent foreigners buying houses, a better example for you to use might have been Switzerland than what you did use.
The world is changing and continuing as we are is going to continue disenfranchising and dispossessing people as technology takes over what we have always thought of as work.
Some form of collectivism is going to be necessary is some parts of society in order for it to survive without violence and for the human race to live with falling populations.
Have you ever bothered to ask WHY Venezuela turned to socialism in the first place?? It appears it would have done well to look to the like of Norway and its policy of sovereign wealth where their oil was concerned. It already was a basket case before it turned to socialism!!
How many of the 58% are recent immigrants? They make up a big portion of the population these days, 2% per year soon adds up to a big part of the population, 10% in just 5 years, and how many of them share our values? How many are whingeing poms come over here just in time to get our pension?
So what if they are recent immigrants? perhaps its because National is pro-immigrant & not solely blaming immigrants for every social problem in New Zealand like Labour,NZ First has been doing.
Even the Greens accused Labour of "crude racial profiling" back in July last year.
New Zealanders are the unhappiest migrant group in Australia despite being the only migrant group to get (SCV), eligible for student loans & medicare yet still very unhappy.
Anti-immigrant sentiment is generally connected to the right so Labor is going more to the right with its negative views on immigration.
not surprised kiwis are not happy in aussie they treat us badly, if this was an aussie baby here he would have been treated. I feel sorry for the parents
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11702029
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