sign up log in
Want to go ad-free? Find out how, here.

Bridges' crowd pleasing efforts fail; Trump flip-flops on North Korea; US data solid; German business confidence negative; UST 10yr at 2.93%; oil down, gold up; NZ$1 = 69.3 USc; TWI-5 = 72.2

Bridges' crowd pleasing efforts fail; Trump flip-flops on North Korea; US data solid; German business confidence negative; UST 10yr at 2.93%; oil down, gold up; NZ$1 = 69.3 USc; TWI-5 = 72.2

Here's our summary of key events from over the weekend that affect New Zealand.

The prudent, steady-as-she-goes Budget hasn't shifted the dial for the Coalition Government. According to the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, support for Labour is up 0.3% to 42.6% and National 0.6% to 45.1%. Meanwhile the Greens and NZ First are down, with NZ First well below the 5% threshold at only 2.4%. According to the poll, National still doesn't have enough mates to govern.

What's more, Simon Bridges is completely dwarfed by Jacinda Ardern in the preferred prime minister stakes. Taking out only 9% of the vote, versus Ardern's 40.2%, this is the lowest result for a National leader in over a decade. Winston Peters is set to take the helm with support of only 4.6% of those polled. 

A characteristic flip-flop from Donald Trump over the weekend - this time involving North Korea. After last week cancelling his meeting with the North Korean leader, the US President says talks might eventuate on June 12 after all. Meanwhile US and North Korean officials are pushing on with their disucssions. 

The North and South Korean leaders also had a surprise meeting over the weekend, with the North Korean leader squeezing in time for selfies in Singapore, where his meeting with Trump is supposed to take place.

US headline durable goods orders in April have come in weaker than expected, down 1.7% month-on-month, owing largely to weak aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, orders were up 0.9%.

Consumer confidence in the US is continuing to slip off the 14-year high seen earlier in the year. According to the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers' chief economist, consumers anticipated smaller income gains in May than a month or year ago, even though they expected the unemployment rate to stabilise at its current 18-year low. Importantly, references to discounted prices for durables, vehicles, and homes fell to decade lows. 

Meanwhile the unexpectedly negative German business sentiment we first saw in April has continued into May, although at a similar level.

The UK’s second first quarter GDP reading is unchanged at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Household spending rose 0.2% - the weakest reading in three years. Business investment fell 0.2% and construction 2.7%. Looking forward, ANZ economists say markets and policymakers will be looking to the second quarter for confirmation that first quarter weakness was caused by the weather.

The UST 10yr yield has fallen another 5bps over the weekend to 2.93%.

Oil has tumbled a few dollars on talk of increased output from OPEC. The US crude price is down to US$68/bbl, while the Brent benchmark has fallen to US$76/bbl.

Gold has jumped US$14 to US$1,289/oz.

The NZD has strengthened marginally across the board since this time on Friday. It's at 69.3 USc, 91.6 AUc and 59.4 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 72.2.

Bitcoin is down 4% to US$7,600.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

31 Comments

It sounds like you have not been a negotiator.

Up
0

I don't think it was a flip-flop by Trump but rather a very calculated move. He is signalling to Kim that he is not prepared to accept any deal for the sake of getting a deal as Obama did regarding Iran. Trump has indicated that the only deal on the table involves complete, irreversible, and verifiable denuclearisation of North Korea. Kim has very options left.

Up
0

I think it is the equivalent of the collapse of the Berlin Wall thirty years ago. Look at the body language, Kim Jong Un is enjoying himself when he meets with the South Korean guy. He has to look tough for his supporters, but he clearly has a firm grip on power, having purged those who would control him. Kim Jong Un could well be the best leader on the planet if he can pull off a deal to bring North and South Korea together.

Up
0

Different times but the problem with this one as well, are the neighbours, China and to a slightly lesser degree, Russia. How can NK maintain the social isolation it is dependent on if it’s people start getting a real taste of western culture & delights ad available across the border in SK. The “reds” want to keep NK red. They want the USA out of the region not gaining any more influence. NK regime is obviously under huge pressure economically now & suspect they will say as much as they can to get the sanctions relaxed and then do as little as they can get away with. Really the SK & NK have a sort of balance of power in terms of conventional warfare and if NK start anything, China will not back them this time. It would seem that all NK might need is a treaty with SK and attested by the UN (USA) that NK’s sovereignty is guaranteed.

Up
0

You think Trump makes "calculated moves"?

Up
0

He might not be perfect but I always think men that own a new 757 deserve a little respect.

Up
0

Bought on the "Never Never"..probably. AndrewJ... if a Hair Cut came along...would lose it all. Like all his paper profits.

Up
0

We all live 'on the tick' mate.

Up
0

Yes, timing is everything. "Giuliani also said that the former administration should have informed Trump that it was looking at Russia meddling during the 2016 race and was surveilling his campaign.

“Some of it is Mueller’s fault (but) it completely taints his investigation,” Giuliani said. “The whole thing with this investigation that was going on, which we consider spying, was done before Mueller got involved. But it completely taints his investigation.”"

Up
0

I can understand them not wanting to tell someone who was peddling the birther conspiracy theory anything.

Up
0

That is one of the lamest excuses I’ve ever heard to support state sponsored spying of a political opponent.

Isn’t is odd how we never heard about Russian meddling until after Mrs. Clinton was humiliated by a guy with crack pot theories.

Up
0

I'm finding this new talking point angle Trump is using vis-a-vis Russia quite fascinating, I have to admit. That it was all a conspiracy to spy on him.

I mean, I hold no regard for Hillary and thought both parties fielded basically the worst set of candidates in recent history, but this new campaign on the Russian issue is just, yeah, fascinating.

Up
0

Gareth - I suggest you read a little wider than the Guardian.

Up
0

Duh.

Up
0

Andrewj...

I do not...I live in Paradise....on the never ....never...then move on...at someone-else's-expense....

Pity we could not debate all this last year...Would have been great...

Trump's BFF

Banks. The tool of last resort.....

Up
0

Im sure your council has borrowed bit against your house, god knows the government has. At the end of the day we will all be lumped together with the 550 billion of debt.

Up
0

To anyone who has been involved with serious negotiations, it is a interactive game. Threatening to or actually walking out is a legitimate negotiating tactic. Employed all the time. Didn't you know that?

Up
0

While "gaming playing" may be the purview of politicians and diplomats after a while it gets just a bit boring - you learn you can't trust them so you don't even bother in the first place.

Up
0

I know you have a disdain for Trump but that shouldn't cloud your objectivity. Step back and have a look at the bigger picture - Trump is getting things done.

Up
0

Please advise what he has actually achieved.

Up
0

Remember it’s a given that journalists have a hatred of Trump. That will never change even though he’s doing rather a good job and possibly is the best President since Reagan.

Up
0

I wonder if he's calculated that a denuclearized Korean peninsula includes US warships?

Up
0

Best way to make a cat come to you is to walk away from it. Failing that food.

Up
0

There's another option: keep the nukes and join with the South to form a unified Korean democracy. I don't think China would like it though...

Up
0

NK is little more than a vassal state of China, and in terms of a dictatorship, very much in the same image. China has no more intention of losing control of NK than it has of Tibet. The 38th parallel still applies as it did in 1951.

Up
0

Why are a lot of poll results portrayed as actual news.

Up
0

Why are you calling it a characteristic “flip-flip” when there’s clearly no mention of that in the linked article?

I believe he’s using tactics and will not be pushed around by the NK regime.

Up
0

I read more than one article before writing my item on the US/North Korea issue. It is a "characteristic flip-flop", as Trump has on a number of occasions drastically changed his position on a matter. I haven't seen evidence that Trump planned to say no to a meeting with Kim Jong Un, knowing that he was later going to say yes. Reporting that this was part of some sort of tactical plan would be making an assumption. I can't make assumptions and report them as fact. You, however, can make assumptions and voice them as opinion in a comment thread. 

Up
0

I think “flip flop” is actually a bit too praiseworthy. Trump appears to thrive on chaos and might even just create it as the need arises. Looking at his personal and commercial life , seems to have been that way since he first learn’t to talk. It’s his way of doing things and for him it works, and if it doesn’t work for anybody else, too bad. In the old days it used to be called, divide and rule. Keep everybody busy fighting each other etc etc. Had a boss like that once. He would take a mighty wild swing at all and sundry and then on about the ninth occasion, there would be an absolutely mind blowing brilliant result, that nobody else could ever have imagined. Hard to work with though!

Up
0

It's more than likely that in Trump, we have ourselves another Continental Op. Sometimes, as Spengler/Goldman notes, a stirrer in the Clint Eastwood mould.

Order is not always an attainable condition, and when it is not, disorder is a thing that is better to give than to receive.

In different ways, the Chinese and Russians understand this. The Chinese have been handling unruly barbarians on their border for thousands of years, and have no illusions about the survivability of backward cultures. Russia knows how to exploit disorder and force the burden of uncertainty onto its opponents (which explains why Russia has been far more effective in Ukraine than the United States).

Where is order attainable, and whose order is it? What are the economic, demographic and strategic boundary conditions for such order? And when is managed disorder as good as it gets?

Up
0