By David Chaston
A year ago we recorded some benchmarks when the new Government was formed.
These are economic metrics and as such only part of how we should review progress.
But as it is the economic side of life that we cover, we can look at life through that lens.
The improvers:
The government's net debt is significantly lower, down -13.3% in one year.
Exports are up +11.4%, but when measured on a world price basis, the gain is only a tiny +1.9%.
As a proportion of annual GDP, our overseas liabilities have fallen.
GDP growth is up.
Inflation is unchanged.
Mortgage interest rates are lower.
House prices are still rising, up +5.9% (although they have fallen in USD terms).
Tax rates haven't changed.
Immigration is lower.
The population is up +1.4%.
Where things have got weaker:
Consumer confidence is markedly weaker, even though there are still more optimists than pessimists.
The Crown surplus is lower, both because taxes collected are lower and spending is a little higher.
Our exchange rate is lower by -4.9% on a TWI-17 basis. That means our incomes need to be this much higher just to ensure their buying power is not slipping on an international basis, and of course we never got anywhere near that.
Our current account deficit has risen, both in NZD terms and USD terms. It is even higher as a proportion of GDP.
There is no improvement in our jobs market. Gains that we have had for years have stopped.
Median household incomes for the 35-39 age cohort are up only +2.2%, but on an internationally benchmarked basis down -7.9%. Compared with other countries, our household incomes have fallen severely.
Renters are paying +12.5% more for a median three bedroom house.
The health budget is lower (although that is mainly because we had to write off some debt for some DHBs in the prior year who couldn't manage their affairs properly).
Tax rates haven't changed. (Although taxes have gone up noticeably on fuel, and some other user charges.)
There are more people on a public-funded benefit.
The population is up +1.4%.
The scorecard
Ok then, how is the balance of these changes? It will depend on your point of view of course and how you weight them in importance. We are not saying that the 'improvers' are all the result of the new Government's policy actions, nor that the weaker items are as well. All we are recording here is what has happened on their watch.
First up, there are marginally more 'weaker' than 'improver' items. The raw score is 10 improvers with 12 weaker, if you will allow for some items being in both categories (!)
But rather than set out what we think, we would like to hear how you would analyse and assess the progress. The comment facility below is where you should record your judgment.
Here is the data:
| Benchmark updated: 19-Oct-18 | Source | NZ$ | NZ$ | US$ | NZ$ | US$ | ||
| 2008 | 2017 | 2018 | ||||||
| Consumer confidence | ANZ-Roy Morgan | 102.3 | 126.3 | 117.6 | ||||
| Crown surplus (bln) | Treasury | -$0.5 | +$12.3 | +$8.8 | +$8.4 | +$5.5 | ||
| Exchange rate TWI-17 | RBNZ | 63.3 | 75.6 | 71.9 | ||||
| Government net debt bln | Treasury | $10.2 | $66.3 | $47.5 | $57.5 | $37.6 | ||
| Country's net overseas liabilities % GDP | RBNZ | -80.4% | -58.5% | -52.1% | ||||
| Exports (Goods + Services) bln pa | Stats NZ | $45.0 | $71.8 | $51.4 | $80.0 | $52.4 | ||
| Current account deficit bln | Stats NZ | -$14.1 | -$7.5 | -$5.4 | -$10.5 | -$7.0 | ||
| C/A as % of GDP | Stats NZ | -7.5% | -2.8% | -3.6% | ||||
| Unemployment rate | Stats NZ | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | ||||
| Employment rate | Stats NZ | 65.4% | 67.8% | 67.5 | ||||
| Participation rate | Stats NZ | 68.0% | 70.6% | 70.6% | ||||
| Inflation / CPI | Stats NZ | +5.1% | +1.9% | +1.9% | ||||
| Official cash rate | RBNZ | 7.50% | 1.75% | 1.75% | ||||
| 2 year fixed mortgage rate (avg) | interest.co.nz | 8.56% | 4.78% | 4.48% | ||||
| GDP growth | Stats NZ | -1.7% | +2.7% | +2.6% | ||||
| Median income, week | Stats NZ | $919 | $1,807 | $1,294 | $1,846 | $1,192 | ||
| Median house price $(000) | REINZ | $335 | $525 | $376 | $556 | $363 | ||
| Median rent $/week 3br house | MBIE | $295 | $400 | $286 | $450 | $294 | ||
| Health spending (bln) pa | Treasury | $11.9 | $18.4 | $13.2 | $16.5 | $10.8 | ||
| Income tax rate (max) | IRD | 39% | 33% | 33% | ||||
| GST | IRD | 12.5% | 15% | 15% | ||||
| Annual net permanent migration (000) | Stats NZ | +4.3 | +72.1 | +62.7 | ||||
| Core public service (000) FTE | SSC | 45.9 | 48.9 | n.a. | ||||
| Number of people on a benefit (000) | MSD | 269.6 | 277.2 | 284.3 | ||||
| Population (mln) | Stats NZ | 4.270 | 4.818 | 4.885 | ||||
The US dollar equivalents are recorded so that these benchmarks can be assessed on an exchange-rate adjusted basis. (2017 is NZ$1 = U$0.7163, 2018 is NZ$1 = US$0.6544.)
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters can claim "one year on, and New Zealand has a brighter future" but the evidence is that their first year has been a non-transformational toss-up, one where we simply marked time while other countries got further ahead.
My view is that, based on the benchmarks above, we have gone from being a nondescript "quite good" to "decidedly average", and that is being generous. New Zealand should be able to do much better than that. It continues to be disappointing to keep on slipping back internationally.
13 Comments
Predictably, given my antipathy to the COL, I think the last year has seen the start of the great stagnation, in a financial sense. I think we are rudderless and gliding on past momentum. It will be interesting to see what happens if sharemarkets and other assets start to really drop. I suspect that much of NZ, let alone some of the political leaders, will not know what to do as it’s been so long since we had a real shakeup. I’ve taken Retired Poppy’s advice and shifted my Kiwisaver to cash, trimmed the family budget and will hunker down.
It’s more like a transition. Under National the economy was juiced up on population growth and rising house prices. This growth was unsustainable and creating massive infrastructure and wage problems that we have only seen the start of. We need to transition to sustainable growth in productivity and real external competitiveness. This is going to be painful. If it’s a stagnation that is actually a win.
This statement is incorrect:
The health budget is lower (although that is mainly because we had to write off some debt for some DHBs in the prior year who couldn't manage their affairs properly).
Health spending is higher, both on a total vote health basis and in terms of what is allocated to DHBs.
Thanks I’ll have a close look.
But yes I am using the 18/19 year budget because .... that is the budget. It’s also the first financial year where the govt has full control over the expenditure.
I’ll have another look at the tables from Treasury but I’ve looked at the health budget every year for the last 5 years and it never goes down no matter who is in government.
So 2016/17 has about $2.5B of unusual capital expenditure - presumably the debt correction you spoke about.
I don’t think it’s accurate to make statements without adjusting for that. If you normalise that line you get (based on your table):
• 15/16 - $15.3B
• 16/17 - $15.9B (adjusted -$2.5 for extraordinary capital)
• 17/18 - $16.5B
• 18/19 - $17.3B (adjusted -$0.9 for extraordinary capital)
That shows a continual increase and the 18/19 budgeted increase greater than the proceeding years.
I expect the increase in 19/20 to be very big, especially given 18/19 will probably overshoot budget.
All said & done, and apart from some basic political naivety, the CoL has done okay. Considering they didn't have a clue in the beginning, they've got through the first 12 months relatively unscathed. For a bunch of communists, nationalists & socialists, that's pretty good. I'd probably have to give them a 9 for entertainment value but the oil & gas thing & the student thing were just immature politics. I'm a Nat voter, and always will be, but right now, all parties appear to be in the right places. For now.
I concur with the 'gliding on past momentum' meme. For all the painfully idealistic blather, there is much more of the 'we are the Gubmint and we are here to Help' meme, than there is genuine productivity growth. Two aspects jump out for me. Firstly, immigration is still far too high, and still unfocused at that. This drives everything from low productivity to infrastructure woes. Secondly, the much-heralded 'transition' seems to consist of an inglorious mix of Captain's calls unmoored from any advice, and a rush to hand out tax dollars to all and sundry. Tertiary year one is already a crock, the queue for pay rises in the name of Equity, but really FOMO, is long and growing. Meantime business and wealth creation are regarded as little more than cash cows to fund the Munny K-line sprayer. But look on the bright side. There are approaching 200 working groups, who will tell us, in the fullness of time, what is Best for Us...
Skill shortages are still where they were as the construction industry hits peak capacity with little room to grow any further.
The ruling parties insistently promised pre-election to deliver more skill-targeted migration but other than a tweaking of post study work visa on level of qualifications, not much has been done on the skill aspect.
We can train some of our existing working population in trades but not in design or engineering, for which we have to rely on overseas talent.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/108095793/the-construction-industry-fa…
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