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US truck sales leap; non-OPEC oil output jumps; US tariff policy in turmoil; Italy in hung result; China outbound tourism up +7%; UST 10yr at 2.89%; oil up, gold down; NZ$1 = 72.3 USc; TWI-5 = 73.4

US truck sales leap; non-OPEC oil output jumps; US tariff policy in turmoil; Italy in hung result; China outbound tourism up +7%; UST 10yr at 2.89%; oil up, gold down; NZ$1 = 72.3 USc; TWI-5 = 73.4

Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news US trade policy is getting messy.

But first, following on from our report yesterday that American car sales slid -2% in February, today we can report that heavy truck sales jumped again, and remarkably, in February. They were up a whopping +76% from the same month a year ago.

According to the IEA, American shale oil output is set to surge over the next five years stealing market share from OPEC producers and moving the United States, once the world's top oil importer, closer to self sufficiency, Brazil, Canada and Norway, all non-OPEC members, are also producing record output. But not everyone is convinced the US can grow output in the way assumed.

If it was possible, the US steel and aluminium tariff threat just got messier overnight. The US president said he will not exempt Canada or Mexico unless they roll over in the NAFTA renegotiations. Then the leader of the Republicans in the Congressional House of Representatives said the tariff plan is a non-starter in Congress. It's a civil war inside the US Administration.

In Italy, after their national elections resulted in a hung result, and after gains by eurosceptics and ultra-nationalists, the verdict from their stock markets is negative. The yields on Italian bonds jumped.

In China, official data out shows that their citizens made more than 130 mln trips overseas in 2017. The most popular destinations were Thailand and Japan where more than 9.7 and 7.4 mln visitors arrived respectively. The overall totals represented a +7% rise over 2016. Spending rose only +5% to US$115.3 bln. New Zealand attracted 400,000 Chinese visitors in the past year, but that was actually a drop of -5%.

In New York, the UST 10 yr yield is higher at 2.89%.

The gold price is down today at US$1,319/oz today, a fall of US$4/oz.

Oil prices are up more than US$1 today with the US benchmark now just over US$62.50/bbl and the Brent benchmark over US$65.50/bbl. The closure of two major Libyan oil fields in the past few days is behind today's spike.

The Kiwi dollar will start today unchanged at 72.3 USc. On the cross rates we are at 93.2 AUc and 58.6 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 73.4 and at the bottom of its 2018 range.

Bitcoin is now at US$11,490, up +3.2% from this time on yesterday.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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14 Comments

Indeed, corporate stock buying is now cranking at a $1 trillion annual rate or nearly double the rate of the last several years. That huge inflow of cash and encouragement to Wall Street will undoubtedly break the market's fall in the short-run; and over the next several quarters, perhaps, enable an extended stop-and-start stepwise decline rather than a sudden sharp plunge as in the fall-winter of 2008-09.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-two-janets-and-the-perfect-st…

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https://tradingeconomics.com/china/business-confidence

China’s surprising PMI growth was driven by escalating debt. And the decline is driven by debt saturation.
Daniel Lacalle

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Oh my goodness. The Herald asks the foxes how safe the hens are!

You can literally smell the collective desperation of these spruikers.

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Yeah, some of the more naive posters fell for it hook line and sinker, see other posts

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Theres a need to inflate the debt away, it's just not happening.

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Liar loans, negative gearing, interest only loans, broker fraud, rock bottom yields, oversupply of apartments ....the Aussie markets got it all. It’s all set for a spectacular bust.

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Aussie banks are also trying to get an indirect piece of the property-microinvesting pie...

https://www.finder.com.au/nab-invests-in-property-investment-platform-b…

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They are almost all Aussie banks, the difference is the Australian government will stand behind them, ours won't

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That makes for some troubling viewing. It would be good if interest.co.nz expanded on this topic.

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I wonder what the carbon footprint of 130 million overseas trips is.

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With household debt to income approaching 200 percent,Australia,does the right thing and rebases its data to lower it .

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WRT American tarriffs...............The next major American weather event should be called Tropical Cyclone Trump or Hurricane Donald , because this guy really knows how to blindside everyone , come to light suddenly and with little warning turn the world upside down .

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