The latest National Construction Pipeline Report says the industry will need to invest more to take advantage of steady growth, instead of relying on quick fixes like importing workers

The construction sector is set for a period of sustained long term growth, ending the previous patterns of boom and bust cycles, according to the National Construction Pipeline Report 2018.

"The forecast is for strong long term growth," the report says.

"For the first time in the history of this report the national forecast does not predict a peak during the forecast period.

"Instead the 2018 forecast is for consistent building and construction activity in the next few years with stronger growth expected towards the end of the forecast period."

The report's forecasts include:

• Residential building value expected to hold steady for the next few years before increasing to a forecast high at $26.6 billion in 2013.
• Dwelling consents are expected to increase year-on-year to a forecast high of 43,100 in 2023.
• Non-residential building value is expected to peak at $8.4 billion in 2019.
• Infrastructure is forecast to remain relatively unchanged, increasing marginally to $7.3 billion in 2023.
• Total construction is expected to grow steadily to a forecast high of $41.4 billion in 2023.

"The forecast indicates to the construction sector that it can have confidence in the demand for future building and construction work and can therefore invest effectively to scale up production (via technological development, skills and training, new efficiencies) to produce at high volume in the future, rather than relying on quick fix methods of increasing capacity (bringing in skills from overseas, utilising spare capacity, borrowing resources from construction-related industries) to meet a short term construction boom.

The report offers some especially good news on the housing front, forecasting that new dwelling consents will reach a new peak for the next five years, staying above 31,500 a year between 2017 and 2022 and peaking at 34,500 in 2019 and 2020.

Growth is also expected to be sustained for longer in Auckland than other regions, with growth in other regions expected to peak and begin to decline in 2019/20 while growth in Auckland is expected to remain at peak levels until 2022.

The report also found that the recent growth in average house sizes had plateaued and was starting to decline in some regions.

The report is produced annually by BRANZ, building economic consultancy Pacifecon and the Ministry of Business innovation & Employment. 

Here is the full report:

Interest.co.nz is keeping a list of major Auckland construction projects, given that these will add to a nationally-significant value and stress the capacity of the construction industry to recruit for them.

At this stage we plan only to list projects that will have a total cost of about $100 mln, but other smaller projects that have key icon or infrastructure importance may also be included.

This list was last updated on 29 July 2018.

We would be pleased to receive details from readers to update this list and improve its accuracy.

You can find a complete list of Auckland ithsmus projects (including many below $100 mln) at this excellent website.

Also see this.

For the national assessment of the future construction pipeline, this MBIE-commissioned report is the core reference.

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