Auction sales rates look reasonably steady although vendors will need to be especially realistic on price in Auckland

Auction sales rates look reasonably steady although vendors will need to be especially realistic on price in Auckland

Auction sales rates for residential properties appear to be continuing to hold steady as the market continues to gather steam as it starts to head into what is usually the busiest sales period of the year.

Interest.co.nz monitored 223 auctions around the country in the week of 11-17 of February, and of those sales were achieved on 85, giving an overall clearance rate of 38%.

The figures for Auckland, which dominates the auction market, were little different, with a sales clearance rate of 36%.

However prices may be a bit softer in Auckland than elsewhere, with just 27% of the Auckland properties that sold selling for more than their rating valuations (RVs), where we were able to successfully match RVs with sale prices. This compares to 40% nationally, suggesting prices may be firmer outside Auckland.

However those figures should be treated with some caution because different councils adopt their rating valuations at different times and they can be years apart, which can affect how well they match up with current selling prices.

In Auckland Barfoot & Thompson is the biggest player by far and it marketed 120 residential properties for sale by auction last week, achieving sales on 33 of them, giving an overall clearance rate of 28% (see chart below).

At Barfoot's major auctions where at least a dozen properties were offered, the sales rates ranged from 29% at the Manukau auction on February 12 and the Shortland Street auction on February 13, to 8% at the Shortland St auction on February 15, where the majority of properties offered were located in west Auckland.

Results for individual properties at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

Barfoot & Thompson Auction Results 11-17 February 2019
Date Venue Sold Not Sold Total % Sold
11-17 February On-site 3 4 7 43%
12 February Manukau 8 20 28 29%
12 February Shortland St, CBD. 2 3 5 40%
13 February Mortgagee/Court 2 3 5 40%
13 February Shortland St, CBD. 6 15 21 29%
13 February Whangarei 0 1 1 0
13 February Warkworth 0 1 1 0
13 February Pukekohe 1 4 5 20%
14 February North Shore 5 16 21 24%
14 February Kerikeri 2 3 5 40%
14 February Shortland St, CBD. 3 6 9 33%
15 February Shortland St, CBD. 1 11 12 8%
Total All venues 33 87 120 28%

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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"You cannot be serious" John McEnroe 1981
Prices are about to take off.
1 out of 12 in Shorty St 15 Feb. I predict a Golden Duck in Barfoots future results.

You might be right about the golden duck.. if this place (https://www.barfoot.co.nz/770153) doesn't change to sold in the next short while its a 100% failure at todays' Shortland St auction. (9 already relisted with prices or by negotiation.. just that one left to get a single run on the board)

Surely it will go – and why not, only a few steps to a Gull Station.

Absolute nonsense - quack!

Low and "steady" sales rates wins the global housing market crash race.

Let the price falls begin!

"However prices may be a bit softer in Auckland than elsewhere, with just 27% of the Auckland properties that sold selling for more than their rating valuations (RVs), where we were able to successfully match RVs with sale prices"

There have been reports of sales prices not being reported when they were below the RV ....

It'll all come out in the wash a few weeks/months later when the REINZ medians and HPIs fall. Its just delaying the inevitable

If you assume that allegation is true. ( For the record, I don't.. not yet anyway)

True.Sales prices not reported where its dipped below RV.

Just look at agents' profiles under their "Recent Sales".Increasing tendency for "Price Withheld"

This weeks barfoot auctions look like its 30 sales from 104 from the results up to yesterdays auctions (not all finalised yet). So expect the report next week to be pretty similar.

10
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The Auckland agents have chucked in the towel, DGZ and Toothypointy are gone. Sales volumes will continue to fall, and prices will continue to fall in Auckland. .

Its likely Tothepoint will once again reincarnate as a DGM stating "declines are entirely understandable given the huge run up in prices to 2016"

by tothepoint | Fri, 24/02/2017 - 10:00 "a fall of a mere 12% over the next 3-4 years would be a soft-landing, given the spectacular gains of the recent past. But the fall could be more pronounced than that - shouldn't rule that out"

Hes flip-flopped before and he'll likely do it again.

Just as well The Man is still hanging in there, to tell us what a bed of roses Chch is.

He fell into one of his oscillations, turns out it was a vortex.

Don't forget EcoBridy who tried so desperately to convince us the Auckland's property market had bottomed out over a year ago. It's amazing the lengths RE's will go to to make a sale.

" prices may be a bit softer in Auckland"
Nah it's just a glitch in the matrix..

Auckland has grass and a breathable atmosphere, aka uniquely NZ. Prices will double every 10 years forever - just look at what happened in the past and extrapolate.

grass is so yesterday.. Now Auckland has ice!

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/769731

Sold for 1.502 m. In October 2016 that would have been 2 million.

It seems unlikely that it would have fetched 2M in 2016, The 2014 RV was 1.1M and when I was doing my analysis at that time houses were averaging 30-40% above RV so the price would have been around 1.5M in 2016. Prices have returned to approximately the 2016 level and this sale bears that out.

Only very special cases got 90% above the 2014 RV in 2016. Just going back through my notebooks for 2017 I never saw the auction's average go above 2014 RV by 50% or more although sometimes it got close (48%). It's possible at its highest point this place would have fetched something like 1.65M.

okay but I'm not sure I believe that. I saw houses in the that area (Selwyn college zone) that were, in my humble opinion, nowhere as nice as that house but sell for way more back then.

here\s some evidence

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7I5rPqf6Tc

Auckland property is all about the land value. 85 Allum Street in the video is a full freehold section of 834m while 1 Baddeley Ave is a cross-lease, half share of 961m. Allum Street is sub-dividable while Baddeley Ave is only 480m and subject to restrictive rules making it hard to even develop the current structure.

This isn't nitpicking, there is a massive difference between the two properties from an investment POV.

That is true

Still there may be some bargains to be had, lots more mortgagees coming on to the market. I'd be curious to know what this one will sell for since it's in Half Moon Bay: https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction...

Just for tothepoint... THE MOST RECENT CBD AUCTION HAS 8% SUCCESS RATE!!!!

I still remember and was quite annoyed with ttp cherry-picking one one weeks results using the last CBD auction of the week and trumpeting the rather high % of the one auction and ignoring the other CBD auctions the same week. Well, this week is a classic example of reversion to the mean... the last auction had an extremely poor result. An 8% success rate... wow!

One can only dream as to how nice it would be to have a 30% success rate after accepting an 8% success rate. Just a few years ago, a 70% success rate was a rather poor auction result... ttp may need some silver sulphadiazine in the very near future.

Well, Todays CBD auction is at best 10%.. or its going to be 0% depending on which way the last lot goes.. so yeah, prepare to repost when results come out next week :)

Actually, the barfoot CBD auctions for the week are so far running at 10 sales from 58 offered, and if we are using the close of business the day following the auction as the cutoff there is only 1 more possible sale if barfoots are updating their website in a timely manner.

Aren't you cherry-picking by plucking out the worst auction result of the week? Oh, I see, yes, annoying.

Hey Zachary, I see the those new anti money laundering regulations are really having an effect in your area. There's only been one auction sale in Epson this year and that was quite a price drop!

2/632 Manukau Road, Epsom. Sold in Feb for $865. 2017 CV: $1,120,00

See prices can only stagnate for a few year until reality kicks in.

Still look on the bright side Zac. Just for you, I've found you a lovely recipe for gourmet Baked Beans. Bon appetit my friend!

https://thepioneerwoman.com/cooking/the-best-baked-beans-ever/

CJ099, that was a pretty good price for that place. As I have advised before the 2017 RV is a bit weird for many of the choice Central Auckland houses (my own place 800k over what it is worth!) The RV in 2014 was 590k. I estimate it should sell for around 40% - 50% above 2014 RV which is 826k - 885k. Bulls eye really.

A good buy for someone though. Possibly would have got more if it was on a quiet inner street but not many two bedroom brick and tile units in Epsom fetch more than 900k even at the height unless they can be converted to three bedrooms or are pretty special.

The vendor paid 159k for this place so a good appreciation!

I love doing this analysis - bring on more!

Glad you're looking on the bright side Zac. So here are two contrasting ones for you. How about this one a mortgagee that's more likely to sell at auction and then there's this the other one which could take quite a while to sell.

Half Moon Bay: https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction...

Waiheke Island, Auckland: https://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/Listing.aspx?id=1814938798&rsqid=18f4ca...

Oh look you get a free helicopter ride too if you go to view it!

Bona Fide buyers can be flown to the property by helicopter for a private viewing.

Not sure about the Waiheke Island one as it is outside of my field of expertise.
The Half Moon Bay one should get between 1.1 and 1.2M.

Both these properties aren't typical. A lot of people don't want to buy a mortgagee sale. How that happened with this property is odd as it appears it last sold 12 years ago. How could one lose?

Really need to give examples of actual sales.

"Really need to give examples of actual sales". We're you estimating how much the properties would sell for?

And I doubt that Half Moon Bay property will sell for more that 1 million - I predict $900k at best.

I thought we were looking for price drops? I estimated one of the above. Being mortgagee it's tricky though and Waiheke one is 17M - maybe in DGZ's area of interest, lol.

Truth is no one apart from foreign buyers can afford those types of big bucks, hasn't anyone told the RE about the Foreign Buyers ban or are they throwing NZ citizenship in as part of the deal?

I wonder if Mr Keys cash for NZ citizenship scheme (scam) is still going?

Christchurch property market continues to remain the most sound market in NZ!
Stable prices and affordable to buy and good rental returns for investors!
People are buying knowing that there will never be a better time to buy!

Me thinks thou doth protest too much

Yeah until the next earth quake!

CJ, Christchurch is as safe as any other place in The country for earthquakes.
Everything insured anyway!

... as far as I can tell ... the only piece of NZ which is comparatively free from earthquakes is the Chatham Islands ...

Good luck finding the mall there... and having a fun night out on the tiles at the weekend ...

... Crusader Country is a mighty fine pace to be !

All looking bright and rosy

Now that we are no longer flavour of the month with the CCP maybe members will be encouraged to sell their Auckland Mansions and let a few locals have a turn.

See what happens to prices when 50,000 empty homes come to the market.

Sydney seems to have a good run on now, the middle is not holding and the lower end is in free fall, how many more Opal Towers exist or are being sold off plan.

His thoughts were echoed at Epping, where realtor Oliver Yap said an apartment nearby that fetched $562,000 a year ago had taken months to attract a $415,000 offer. Rents have also sagged.

“We’ve got people knocking back the first offer they get and then selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars less three or six months later,” said Tim Fraser of Di Jones Real Estate North Shore.

but its "Different this time, this wont happen in Auckland, Yeah Right......"