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Fed Farmers' Bruce Wills points out exports by primary industries are NZ$32 billion in 2012, up a 'remarkable' 73% in eight years

Rural News
Fed Farmers' Bruce Wills points out exports by primary industries are NZ$32 billion in 2012, up a 'remarkable' 73% in eight years

By Bruce Wills*

Last week was frustrating as fog again closed Auckland airport. I was due in Auckland for some meetings and even an interview with Rural Delivery, but, as it turned out, I got to admire airport terminal design instead.

Like fog closing airports, there is a fog of sorts clouding discussion of the value-add in our primary exports.

In eight years time it will be 2020 yet if we go back eight years it was 2004; what has been the agricultural state of play over the past eight years?

In 2004, as Bernard Hickey would appreciate, there were some strange but disastrous financial innovations taking root.

The U.S. subprime tsunami was three years old and lending for it would peak in 2005.

Locally and abroad we went on a debt-fuelled binge.

Sadly, agriculture embraced debt with gusto as well.

Eight years ago the Iraq war was one year old, Afghanistan was in turmoil and despite it all, petrol was under $1.10 a litre. For exporters, we faced a Kiwi dollar that was US$0.67 in January but ended 2004 at $US.71. Some things never change.

In the year ending June 2004, our agricultural, horticultural and forestry exports amounted to some $18.5 billion.

In the year to March 2012, exports for the primary industries came to almost $32 billion.

That is a remarkable increase of almost 73 percent.

I heard one of our younger staff describe it as 'insane' and 'awesome' and it is. It is all too easy to forget just how far we have come over the past eight years.

In 2004, dairy exports were not quite $5 billion but today are almost $12 billion; a staggering 140 percent increase.

Fonterra’s global alchemy has it on track to crack the $20bn revenue barrier.

In 2004 by contrast, red meat, wool and hides generated exports of around $5.5 billion and eight years on these have grown to $6.7 billion. It is an increase yes, but of a more modest scale.

Explosive growth has come out of the horticultural sector when combined with wine is now a $3 billion dollar export. While people may look at logs and ask, ‘where's the value add in that?’ the value of those logs have grown a full third since 2004.

Then there is the value implosion of wool. If we go back to 1990, wool was a $1.7 billion export, which, over 22 years, has fallen to around $800 million today. Wools implosion is remarkable because this green fibre has lost value during the ‘green awakening’ we are repeatedly told about. There has to be a thesis in this examining the reasons why.

As New Zealand is a trading nation there are three big things farmers need from government to support export growth.

These are trade access, better understanding of what markets desire and the means to add value to what we produce, or will produce.

Getting better trade access starts by reducing the fear those markets have of Kiwi farmers. While government works the government-to-government side of things, Federated Farmers joined the World Farmers Organisation to do just that. Around $1.5bn in tariffs are paid annually by our agricultural exporters, reducing farm incomes by effectively the same amount.

Put another way, it represents just under five percent of the current value derived from our primary exports. This doesn’t take into account the value better in-market access could open up either. It is why we are working the farmer channel but it is a tough row to hoe; of the 41 member countries of the WFO only four are fellow free traders.

Getting useful market intelligence is another key aid government can give exporters. Last year the old MAF, now the Ministry for Primary Industries, became the first body from a non-Muslim country to win an award for Halal certification. That is a start because we need to know more about not just Asia, but a global Islamic market estimated to be worth over $3 trillion.

Then there pockets of economic activity starting to emerge out of Africa.

My point is the world is much larger than our immediate Anglo-European dominated view of it.

Then there is that $64,000 question about how we add value to what we currently produce, or will produce in the future. This is infrastructure like water storage, broadband and a science ecosystem tied to our core competitive advantage of producing food and derivatives of food.  It is something my Vice-President, William Rolleston, has a much better handle on than me but it is vital.  Farmers through their levies already invest directly in science research but collectively as a country, we need to do much, much more. 

While we cannot predict the future we can certainly help to feed it.

Doing that creates added opportunities for those well outside our farm gates too.

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Bruce Wills is the President of Federated Farmers. You can contact him here »

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16 Comments

Thank you China for buying our primary exports.

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This isn't China Kiwi....this is a blog site...your comment would be better directed to Communist Party H.Q.........I'm sure they'll appreciate it ...........comrade.... {:>)

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when is a chinese goosberry not a kiwifroot

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When this sort of growth happens in Australia the whole Country starts celebrating and everyone knows about it, the whole world calls Australia the lucky Country. In Australia they are not afraid to mention China. Why is it that in NZ something really good happens and it seems like nobody has a good word to say?

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the Emporer has no clothes, whether he's in NZ or Aussie, the same naked guy.

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insane-  absurd, foolish irrational.

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How much debt did it take to get that increase in exports, Bruce conveniently forget to mention debt. This was not just conjured up out of fresh air, no, we sold our souls to increase our production.

 

 

Some people say a man is made outta mud
A poor man’s made outta muscle and blood
Muscle and blood and skin and bones
A mind that’s a-weak and a back that’s strong

You load sixteen tons, what do you get
Another day older and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go
I owe my soul to the company store

I was born one mornin’ when the sun didn’t shine
I picked up my shovel and I walked to the mine
I loaded sixteen tons of number nine coal
And the straw boss said “Well, a-bless my soul”

You load sixteen tons, what do you get
Another day older and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go
I owe my soul to the company store

I was born one mornin’, it was drizzlin’ rain
Fightin’ and trouble are my middle name
I was raised in the canebrake by an ol’ mama lion
Cain’t no-a high-toned woman make me walk the line

You load sixteen tons, what do you get
Another day older and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go
I owe my soul to the company store

If you see me comin’, better step aside
A lotta men didn’t, a lotta men died
One fist of iron, the other of steel
If the right one don’t a-get you
Then the left one will

You load sixteen tons, what do you get
Another day older and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go
I owe my soul to the company store

 
 

 

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Smoke and mirrors Aj....my take on this article is Brucey is talking dollar value not volume, so adjust his figures to account for inflation and as you say increased debt/costs where does that leave us then....

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There was an article in the Herald today about the effect of PSA on the Kiwifruit industry.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=108…

 

Whilst it is great to see the Dairy industry going well, there is a risk in relying so much on a single type of business, i.e Dairy.

As the kiwifruit folks have found out, a single bio security lapse can have huge implicatioins.

Foot & Mouth comes to mind, in respect to Dairy production and exports.  A serious outbreak could put this country on its knees.

 

 

 

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unfortunately that biosecurity lapse came from a systemic weakness in the MAF organisation that has been there for 20 years. NZ has suffered many minor biosecurity lapses over that time but no action could be stimulated by the industries that suffered thenm as MAF had a policy of free market at any cost and any restriction on imports was seen as being in conflict with the end game of free trade. Unfortunately as every one in real life knows if you pull your pants down and bend ove r what happens

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yayyyy dairy is going gangbusters. maybe they could put a tiny bit of that "staggering increase"in to protecting soil and planting and fencing watercourses...

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Not much you can say to that....

 

Lets try "Commodity Price Cycle"

or, "massive credit growth"

or, "poor business cashflows"

 

Fonterra have trouble doing value add - look at how the Oz supermarkets carve them up....

 

These do not appear to be enduring cashflows, nor enduring farm gross margins...

 

Sounds like the younger staffer needs a wise head/good leadership to calm him/her down.

 

Look at BHP down 30% since January...

 

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In 1998 I had an overdraft facility with my bank for 100k, over the next 2 years they changed me to a flexi-loan, by 2002 I had an overdraft facility of over 1 million dollars with less income than I made in 1999.

 So guess what drove rural land prices? 

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Out and out Greed is what drove land values AJ, the overdrafts were extended by the banksters, true, but the green eyed monster of greed triggered many to over extend themselves. So, no tears from me.

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