Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news markets are in a risk on mood today.
First, the April US inflation rate brought no surprises, coming in as expected at 3.4%, a dip albeit a small one, from March's 3.5%. But it still qualifies as 'sticky' - there have been nine lower readings in the past twelve. Their 'core' rate fell to 3.6%, also as expected. Airfares and rent remain the key components keeping inflation up in the US. Petrol prices rose a very minor +1.2% over the year. (The other measure we use has them up +2.0%. Either way, petrol is not pushing up inflation there.)
The apparent slowing of inflation is bring debate and market bets on when the Fed will cut its policy interest rates. The Fed itself of tempering expectations, but markets aren't waiting. Yields on US benchmark bonds are falling in secondary markets, equity prices are rising in anticipation (and to record highs), and the US dollar is weakening as a risk-on mood envelopes markets today.
Meanwhile, the official data for US retail sales were up +4.0% in April from a year ago on an 'actual' basis, and now showing 'real' gains above inflation. (But when you seasonally adjust this data and correct for varying holiday periods, the gain isn't that high.) Meanwhile, American business inventories are not rising, in fact posted a small dip in March. They don't currently have an excess inventory problem.
US mortgage applications were little-changed last week from the prior week, to be -14% lower than the same week a year ago. Benchmark mortgage interest rates fell -bps to 7.08%, mortgage brokers report.
China left its 1-yr Medium Term Lending Facility rate unchanged at 2.5% yesterday.
Indian exports fell sharply in April from March, and were only +0.8% higher than a year ago. Presently, India is not a powerhouse exporter or participant in global trade. April merchandise trade exports of US$35 bln in the month is barely more than Australia's.
The EU delivered some better economic results overnight with March quarter economic activity expanding (GDP was +0.4% higher in the quarter than the same quarter a year ago, 'real'.) Although they may seem low to us, they are 'good' for them in the current circumstances.
Their Spring forecasts out overnight see a "gradual expansion amid high geopolitical risks", anticipating growth rising to +1.0% this year and +1.6% next. Industrial production is rising recently, cutting into the prior declines. But they are making hard work of it getting this key indicator to rise on a year-on-year basis.
And staying in Europe, we should note an assassination attempt on the newly-elected nationalist firebrand Slovak prime minister. He has been a pro-Russian, anti- democracy lightning-rod, the subject of large street demonstrations since his election. It is the kind of spark that in the past has kindled wider, broader consequences.
Argentina's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate -1000 bps to 40% from 50%, marking the sixth adjustment since December due to a slowing inflation rate, bringing the rates to the lowest since June 2022. The monthly inflation rate slowed for the fourth straight month to 8.8% in April from 11% in the previous month and below market forecasts of a 9% gain.
In Australia, the rate of gain in their wage pay slipped to 4.1% in the March quarter. That is the first time that gain rate has fallen since Q4-2020 and it may suggest labour market pressures are starting to ease there.
Standard & Poor's has been looking at the 2024 Aussie budget. They are concerned about 'structural spending pressures' that won't ease in future. They are also worried about the broader issue of weak productivity and “how effective spending programs such as Future Made in Australia are in allocating resources”.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.36% and down -9 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is deeper at -39 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also deeper at -75 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is sharply deeper (11 bps) at -102 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.33% and down -7 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.30%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.72% and down -3 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street is in its Wednesday session up +1.1% on the S&P500 in late trade from the no-surprise CPI data. Overnight European markets rose about +0.2% in Paris and +0.8% in London. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Wednesday session up a minor +0.1% but Hong Kong fell -0.2%, and Shanghai was down -0.8%. However Singapore ended down -0.7%. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday post-budget session up +0.4%, but the NZX50 fell -0.8% with an increasing sell-off in the afternoon as trading ground on.
The price of gold will start today up another +US$34 from yesterday at US$2389/oz, a move essentially driven by the falling greenback.
That same move has boosted oil prices today which are up +50 USc to just on US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$82.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today with a broad-based, across-the-board rise, up almost a full +1c from yesterday at just on 61.3 USc and its highest level in eleven weeks. Against the Aussie we are up at 91.5 AUc and a one month high. Against the euro we are +½c higher at 56.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 70.2 and up +60 bps from yesterday, and its highest since mid March.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,097 and up a spectacular +6.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.2%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
119 Comments
There is zero correlation btw the unemployment rate and consumer price changes. None. Zilch. Yet, like expectations theory central bankers run around talking a "tight" labor market being inflationary and no one ever challenges it. Link
There is a depressing amount of crap talked up about the relationship. And yet it is lapped up as gospel by the majority. Saddening.
That assassination attempt of the Slovak PM is a very big spark. There are a few of us old enough and aware enough to understand history and identify that that 'kind of spark' started WW1 which then led to WW2.
It is hard to understand how a pro-Russian, anti-democratic politician could win an election without rigging it. Why would people vote for someone who would remove their rights? But then history also tells us that voters are pretty dumb most of the time too. Would a close look reveal corruption and Russian involvement in the election?
The European melt down continues, and is perhaps gathering pace.
Four rounds to the abdomen may yet result in a successful assassination,
Certainly the odds of a normal life after this will be very slim indeed, the liver and spine are the deciders of that.
People are voting radically to rid themselves of the shackles of the left, and their aimless, emotion-led incompetence.
Hmmm.. you could say that the current Government in NZ is aimless, emotion-led and incompetent?
Here's an example - Govt reviewing ‘counterintuitive’ fishing permits for biosecurity zone
Despite the $11m invested in eradication of exotic caulerpa, commercial crayfish permits were issued for an impacted area. “It seems like quite an oversight to allow bottom-contact fishing to occur somewhere where you’ve got a highly invasive species known to spread via fragmentation.
Requests for interviews with Fisheries Minister Shane Jones and Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard were ignored or turned down.
Are you seriously suggesting Minsters were accountable for issuing fishing permits? That seems a stretch.
The Ministers should be too busy to pander to the left-leaning MSM, they have a lot of awful policy to clean up as they promised.
Where does the buck stop JAO ...and why won't they comment? Would you not be all over this today and fix this $*& up - like that's their job?
(Answer to much wine/oyster dinners with major donors conveniently left out of their dairies and then back to the Hotel for some on demand movies wink wink)
Anyhow go back to the Hosk and try and zoom out.
Ha, not a fan of the Hosk but he is a necessary balance to your comrades at Radio Red.
I agree I would be all over this but my agenda would not include urgent briefings to hostile media.
My agenda would be about finding out how the mistake occurred, remedying it and then how to fix the process so it is better moving forward. I would not need an Advisor by the way lol (let alone a Senior Advisor).
Hostile Media?...(or just a good Journo reporting from some very concerned locals who care about the environment with ramification's for the whole inshore fishing industry)
You better check under your bed..might be a red lurking?
https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Worlds-of-Jo…
Some extracts (with my bias of course ;)).
"While still committed to the traditional non-biased neutral observer role, journalists now feel their most important role is no longer letting people express their views, but educating the public" - educating them with their opinions....
"The median political orientation was 4.4, on a scale of 1-10 where 1=left, and 10=right. As the bar chart below shows, there are very few strongly right-wing journalists, but a substantial number of moderately or strongly left-wingers. "
Straw man..but expected
lol so is your response to a clearly valid set of conclusion on actual research - do you have a counter-factual?
So its fake news?...- seems like a you are trying to get off the topic?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/why-northlands-cauler…
Straw man is right.
Our pathetically restricted left-right isn't the - indeed any - spectrum.
But the moment your get into 'otherising'; you've discounted yourself completely. As per Israel, post WW2; as bad as their prior persecutors. Different ways of leadership/governance tend not to deter psychopaths from climbing over others - democracy in theory can vote them out, but in practice doesn't.
The problem from here on in, is that a dog-eat-dog-devil-take-the-hindmost 'market economy', is doomed to annihilate the species attempting it. That is because they choose to avoid personal costs (Hoggard being a classic vector-example of farming avoidance); choose to 'otherise' them.
Shifting guilt - yours, re every generation yet to come - doesn't validate your opinion. It is what it is; blame-shifting. Requires a maturing, a mea culpa, a reappraisal.
Thank you.
Crickey! The median is 4.4 but 90% identify as left of of centre and 50% are left or extreme left. Our MSM is literally run by communists!
Quelle surprise
I don't think someone was listening...
"... the liver and spine are the deciders of that."
So you're not a trauma specialist then? ;-)
Jeez Murray. WW1, that is old.
Agreed. It's a meaningless comparison. How EU countries are governed now vs. then is completely and utterly different.
So you are arguing the comparison is not relevant? Ever hear of an old adage about those who choose to forget history?
Those that do study history (of which I am one) will tell you to investigate the conditions leading to events rather than the events in isolation.
Do not get too distracted by the detail. Ask yourself what it is that drives individuals to try to assassinate their national leaders? Bordering on autocracy, people losing their rights, lack of opportunity, societal division?
How is the different to now?
First introduction to critical thinking for 8 year olds. Why do people think, act and feel the way they do?
Been there, done that for more than 20 years in a previous life.
Murray86. Maybe he got elected because people voted for him.
hence my comments re the voters and history.
KH. Maybe he got elected because he told lies and fantastical stories to people so they voted for him.
Mmmmh. I am no expert on the needs of Slovaks. Nothing much in fact. But at least I know it, unlike some others here.
They're just like you - will go with whatever promises to advance their desires most. When times are good, they vote conservatively, even a little altruistically. When times get tough, they vote for anyone promising untough times. Hitler was one such... Luxon - given the truth about the Limits to Growth - is another.
But really, NZ voted a too-woke Labour front bench, out. They didn't bargain for this trio of clowns, didn't vote for charter schools, mining everywhere, socilaisation of corporate debt.
So your posit that they 'voted for him' is a falsehood.
Just sayin...
So much for your 'physics' PDK.
Physically, they voted for them. You don't have to like it.
And cut out the abuse.
Trigger alert
"unlike some others here"
Mirrors are a sod, eh?
And staying in Europe, we should note an assassination attempt on the newly-elected nationalist firebrand Slovak prime minister. He has been a pro-Russian, anti- democracy lightning-rod, the subject of large street demonstrations since his election.
Who is next?
Georgia seems to be the latest battleground between the "rules-based order" and international law. https://theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/14/us-warns-georgia-not-to-side-with-moscow-against-the-west The Georgian parliament passed a “foreign agents” bill whereby media or civil society groups in Georgia that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad will have to register as “organisations serving the interests of a foreign power”. Which should be entirely uncontroversial as it is completely in line with the UN Charter - the bedrock of international law - which prohibits foreign meddling into other countries' internal affairs. Link
Back alley deals being done behind closed doors as Russia seeks to spread influence.
Thus any industry to create exports and generate foreign income becomes an agent of 'foreign influence'. Sounds like Fonterra.
While I agree that there shouldn't be foreign meddling, the wording of the law and how it is reported to be applied in Russia looks like the very thin edge of the wedge. The law reads more like isolationism.
Would we stop our companies trading with China because we don't like their politics? I do know that is and does happen already, but that is through government sanctions and other laws.
Do Facebook still have bans on discussing Wuhan lab leaks? Thank goodness for kiwi non-experts.
"Today, based on evidence uncovered in @COVIDSelect's recent report, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services commenced formal debarment proceedings against EcoHealth Alliance. EcoHealth will now face an immediate, government-wide suspension of taxpayer funds — including a hold on all active grants.
EcoHealth & Dr. Daszak facilitated gain-of-function research in China without proper oversight & willingly violated multiple requirements of@NIH grants. They should never again receive a single penny from the U.S. taxpayer."
"Gilles Demaneuf is a data scientist with the Bank of New Zealand in Auckland. He was diagnosed with Asperger’s Syndrome ten years ago, and believes it gives him a professional advantage. “I’m very good at finding patterns in data, when other people see nothing,” he says."
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-…
Great detective work
This is the article that informed my opinion some years ago and I haven't changed my mind since.
https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-natur…
In all these discussions about the origin of SARS-CoV-2, most discussions never mention a key fact about viruses: They mutate all the friggin' time!
There are billions of near random mutations that result in nothing. Probably billions per day. And the viruses are not sentient, so they're not looking at cells and trying to find the best route for infection and then reproduction (albeit too many articles are written like this).
They're mindless, fragile organisms that 'break' frequently resulting in mutations.
But it just takes one to be successful and we - or another species - has a problem.
And even then, while they're successful - because they're mindless, fragile organisms that continue to break frequently - their mutations may prove to be even more successful at trying to find the best route for infection and then reproduction, and a harmless mutation appears that floods out the dangerous one.
Classic example of Occam's razor. An outbreak of a novel corona virus next door to a facility engineering gain of function corona viruses is probably exactly what it seems.
Yes time appears to have now allowed this option to be openly aired.
And this is an interesting article from Aug2021 about the possible why ...
"Between September 2019 and March 2020, the Fed injected more than $9 trillion into the banking system, equivalent to more than 40% of US GDP.
The mainstream narrative should therefore be reversed: the stock market did not collapse (in March 2020) because lockdowns had to be imposed; rather, lockdowns had to be imposed because financial markets were collapsing.
At the heart of our predicament lies an insurmountable structural impasse. Debt-leveraged financialization is contemporary capitalism’s only line of flight, the inevitable forward-escape route for a reproductive model that has reached its historical limit. Capitals head for financial markets because the labour-based economy is increasingly unprofitable.
https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-c…
Lol. The evidence existed right at the beginning and was deflected, covered up. Many suggestions and evidence that NIAD/NIH and Fauci were aware all along. Alleged funding from Department of Defense as well. There's a reason a moratorium on gain of function research was enacted in the US in 2014.
Scientists suggesting at the very beginning that a lab leak was most likely were allegedly deflected directly by Fauci.
Mankind has been conducting chemical warfare since forever, why wouldn't they attempt it with the flu?
Will the investigation stop at Ecohealth or will it reach into the upper echelons? Will Daszak be the fall guy here, case over?
And on a side note. Apparently the lawyer leading/compiling an international criminal case over Covid has been arrested and held in prison for a number of months.
https://oversight.house.gov/release/hearing-wrap-up-ecohealth-alliance-…
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/fauci-knew-nih-funded-wuhans-gain-o…
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/fauci-reportedly-relaunched-nih-g…
Who would hold NZX stocks, due to the shit show that we have for an economy our market has been going in the opposite direction to the rest of the world. Kiwisaver? More like Kiwisacrifice.
Gave up a few years back ...better to self manage
Ha. We agree on something. KiwiSaver, the gift/joke that keeps on giving (to financial advisors, not you).
Luckily there is a decentralized hard asset which you can buy 24/7 and self custody. As all the FIATs of the world debase ...this asset does the opposite.
Magic beans you say?
I don't believe in magic..you?
The State on Wisconsin might however,
The state of Wisconsin purchased $163 million in magic beans ETFs in the first quarter
Popularity doesn't equal proof of intrinsic value. See how much Taylor Swift is currently raking in for evidence of that :).
? I don't get your point
Swift's income streams include revenue from her concert tour ticket sales, music catalog, streaming deals and record sales. She also owns numerous pricey properties across the U.S. Both Bloomberg and Forbes pin her net worth at an estimated $1.1 billion on the low end, based on analyses of her fortune
Bitcoin's only value is held in its popularity. The only reason it goes up in price is because more and more people are buying into it. When that stops, it has no value. There is no underlying physical value, use or profit making inherit to it. It is just ones and zeros of complex computations that its owners don't understand. The underlying code is open source and viewable by all. It could be very simply cloned, and an alternative yet identical network set up, but you need ever expanding popularity for it to go up in value.
Whenever people criticize bitcoin, often the comeback is, "well it just went up in value" "well this place just bought a lot". The fact that its popularity is high or going up is no proof in itself that it is a good idea to join in on the scheme. Markets are not perfectly rational.
Hard asset? I would be keen to know what it is, Gold?
Viagra
Decentralization sounds like an unpleasant side-effect.
Gold x Viagra
Same as any other stock markets. Buy the dips, sell the tops, follow the cycles. (Plenty of cyclical stocks on the NZX are / will be worth buying.)
Apart from Xero which moved to Ozi and good old A2 (bless them)....can you name one currently?
Some parts of the economy are great. Export led industries particularly, and they will benefit from the continuing drop in the NZD. If you are in retail, hospo, real estate, construction, and supporting services though you are buggered. They all rely on availability of debt or are effected by increases in the minimum wage which makes their business no longer viable (hospo and retail in many cases).
And that is the exact reason I buy/rent/ develope houses. Why give your money to some dickhead who makes a great income while your savings down the drain
No offence intended, but some would say landlords make a great untaxed income while what should be your savings go into their pocket rather than paying for an asset.
But how else will they get their cocaine, ego, and expensable lady friends?
I'm not sure if now is the perfect time to buy, but the amount of negativity makes me wonder if that time is very close.
Interesting take, (with a bow to Buffet) would you not see at least a few more quarters of down trend?
As a generalizm, mfd's take is on the money.
Whether waiting "at least a few more quarters of down trend" is another generalism, also on the money.
But generally speaking (see what I did?) it varies on a stock by stock basis.
An economic analysis of the stock's product and/or services will tell you when things might pick up (or not). A financial analysis, focusing on sales, cashflows and debt, will tell you whether a stock's 'bad news' is all out. And technical analysis will tell you whether others are accumulating or continuing to distribute that stock. (I do them in that sequence as the time required for each mounts as the sequence progresses.)
I do have a bit of a habit for jumping on trends a little too early, so you could easily be right. Served me well at the start of Covid when the crash was a very sharp V, but perhaps this will be shallower or more of a U shape.
Plenty of companies out there look pretty beaten up to me already.
"Plenty of companies out there look pretty beaten up to me already."
Agreed. Lots are. But one's success is tied to using one's skills to spend one's limited funds at the best time on the best stocks. (Or one can just buy the index and settle for a far lower ROI.)
Mfd I am out there doing the figures now for my next project. Second tier lenders seem cautious thou so that might be a problem as I don't have a job as such. And I refuse to go too 3rd tier. But at the early stages there are some good buys coming on the market. Again thou this ain't Auckland and I do things a bit diffent to bog standard property investors
I'm talking about NZX shares - NZ property hasn't been beaten up nearly enough for the yields to make sense to me. Although I acknowledge there's niches where people can make a decent return, it's not for me.
There was a bit of chatter yesterday about consultants. I came across this yesterday, which I thought was a good summary of the problem with consultants getting helicoptered in to produce recommendations.
In the beginning, there was a report,
And then came the assumptions.
And the assumptions were without form,
And the report was completely without substance.And the darkness was upon the face of the policy advisors,
And they spoke among themselves saying,
"It is a crock of s**t and it stinketh."And the senior policy advisors went unto their Principal advisors and said,
"It is a pile of dung, and none may abide the smell thereof."And the Principal advisors went unto their Managers saying,
"It is a container of fertilizer, and none may abide its strength."And the Managers spoke to the Deputy Chief Executive, saying
"It contains that which aids plants growth, and it is very strong."And the Deputy Chief Executive went to the Chief Executive of the Ministry saying unto them,
"It promoteth growth, and it is very powerful."And the Chief Executive went to the Minister saying unto him,
"This new report will actively promote development and efficiency and is strongly recommended."And the Minister looked upon the report
And saw that it was good,
And so the report became Policy.
:) yes an old classic.
The nature of there being advisors in government - that there is an actual role called advisor - is a clue to how different government is to the real world. In the real world people are paid to know their jobs and then are measured on their performance.
And eventually held accountable. Local government though has perfected the application of the opposite. Employ consultants for subject project (including vainglorious, vanity symbol.) Now allow the consultant a disclaimer in the contract absolving them of any liability. And if things do go pear shaped, well then the council can blame the consultant’s advice, but nothing more, and hey presto no one can be held accountable. QED!
Central government are exactly the same. Helps keep middle management in their jobs a.k.a keep heads from rolling.
Ride forth then the dreaded Bureaucratic Brown Cardigan Brigade. Under the eternal banner “ Omnes Auctoritate, Nihil Responsabilitas.”:Of course in there though is an unfortunately low percentage of “The Thin Red Line,” honest toilers, hard pressed but they do the best that they can make, out of the circumstances.
You completely misunderstood the point being made...
lol I am not sure it is me that has missed the point.
OK the point being made is this.
Consultants are being used when you should be using internal staff.
This great little passage makes the case for paying public sector staff more and having more of them to retain capacity and expertise in house and not having to rely on external consultants.
The policy advisors (public sector) can see that the report the consultants (private sector) have produced is a crock of shit but as it goes up the chain the people that have been progressively more involved in decisions to cut internal staff and rely on external consultants defend the consultant system outputs because otherwise they would have to admit their ridiculous headcount cuts and holding public sector wages down have backfired.
The critique here is off public sector expert bashing, privatisation, outsourcing and arbitrary headcount targets.
I say this as a frequent consultant to the public sector.
That was my point, yes.
Good doco from OZ on big consultancies and how they have infiltrated public sector and how it's costing us way more than if we'd just kept the public service well resourced
NZ total fertility rate just dropped to 1.52 from 1.65 y/y. This is a 30% decline from 2.17 in 2010. France had a 17% decline in the same period and Macron is desperately encourging people to have babies.
Its interesting birth control/family planning has been around since the 1970's now. The birth rate in the 30 year era 1980-2010 was between 1.9 - 2.2. It is only the last 14 years it has crashed to 1.52. Yet this decline only starts in 2010. One must assume the problem is economic in nature. Young Kiwi's are taking longer to save up, buy a house and get the mortgage under control before starting a family. They also can't afford to upgrade the house anymore if they want more space for extra kid or kids. The cost of living crisis has also exacerbated this problem. This means smaller families as people run out of time......
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINNZL
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/births-and-deaths-year-e…
Good.
Agreed, the cultures we are importing our population from are superior to ours, it's a natural selection thing.
Young people delaying starting families because they are more financially unstable compared to previous generations is "good"?
Preferably they make a concrete decision to not have babies ever, rather than delay.
I don't know if you are being sincere or sarcastic? If its the former your level of delusion is impressive.
Neither. Realistic.
Yeah fuck the social construct that has been going on since forever. What other ones should we tear down while we are at it? Should we cancel Super too since there won't be enough new workers to pay tax for it?
Please, there’s no need for swearing. You’re aware of my drive for compulsory euthanasia at 70?
Why wait till 70? You could start now.
Mixed factors at play here. The average age of having a child was a lot younger post WWII and has slowly increased over time. We also now have the influence of cellphones in our pockets for a large portion of the day, close to the old fellas which may or may not have some impact. Then there's the level of opportunity to travel now and lowering cost of this across the aforementioned timeframe, leading to many travelling and working abroad for their 20's before even choosing to consider children. Now couple this with fertility declining by age biologically, a large uptick in processed and now ultra-processed foods increasingly consumed as a percentage of the diet in the western world, and finally, finally we get to the economic conundrum as the cherry on top.
lol - I would posit that it's the content of the cellphone rather than the emissions from it that are having a greater effect on fertility.
Yes, there's a strong correlation between the drop in fertility and house prices. I wonder how many working mums want to stay at home with their kids and actually mother them rather than work, spend half their income on childcare arrangements/salary sacrifice from working reduced hours, and let strangers mould their kids' characters and experience?
The other problem is economic. If your husband earns 90k and you earn 90k. If you have kids and opt to stay working. A full time nanny will be 65k. Your after tax income will be $68000. You have to pay the Nanny $65,000 from your after tax income. This means you are $3000 ahead.
If you stop work you have no nanny cost and no income. However you collect $6,000 in working for families tax credits. So financially you are better off being a stay at home Mum.
The NZ govt is the big loser here as they are $22,000 out of pocket. It is not a good system. It creates a perverse incentive structure.
NZ society does not like working mothers.
On a cost/benefit analysis it would be interesting to consider however, the societal benefits of having a stay at home parent for X number of years compared to children having a paid carer or at a playcentre etc. I don't believe as a society we should be encouraging having more children without a parent at home, but that's only from my experience. Commodifying parent and child time together is a dangerous thought on a large scale.
Our fertility rate is a moot point when we're losing over tens of thousands of young Kiwis each year. It seems nonsensical to me that we're more concerned about where more water can be sourced from instead of plugging the big hole at the bottom of our bucket.
Even thousands of skilled migrants each year buy a one-way ticket to Aussie shortly after securing their Kiwi citizenship.
"NZ society does not like working mothers."
The childcare subsidy for preschools is significant which props up the sheer number of these businesses - I suspect many grannies would have to step up if the full cost was passed on
Also add in when they have all their ducks in a row and start trying ....crickets....and so a knock on the IVF door? $$$$$$
Yup... to be fair the government does fund a few rounds of IVF.... I know a few people who got this service.
That can be a heart-breaking journey one that I am sure is not made by choice. So very different from just one generation ago...
The issue of choosing to have families own dogs etc in the preesent climate whether here or in the US is that childcare costs more than rent!
Economic in nature? May explain part of the collapse in human reproductive capacity?
Some are choosing child free because of the hell hole the economic super organism and it's disciples are turning the living planet into. On the flipside the hell hole the planet is being turned into by the super organism is less conducive to human reproduction.
https://www.euronews.com/health/2023/06/15/sperm-counts-are-declining-s….
I suspect being packed in like sardines in a can is probably it's own physiological contraceptive?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5m7X-1V9nOs&pp=ygUXbW91c2UgdXRvcGlhIGV4cG…
In any case a return to good old days of fruitfulness are likely behind us.
https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en/our-stories/media/fonterra-announces-ste…
Big announcement from Fonterra
Translation: We can't be bothered with the messy business of restructuring these businesses, or understanding the markets in which they operate, so they become more profitable, so we're going to sell them.
How very 'Kiwi Management' of them.
Seems like an abject retreat from the hard but profitable work of selling differentiated products to consumers and back to being a price taking bulk supplier. Admittedly, they haven't done very well at the former so maybe a sensible retreat.
It'd be interesting to hear what suppliers think of this.
Good grief: we fully agree again (2nd time in a week).
For those wondering about commercial property valuations, the Vero centre has been sold (conditional on overseas investment approval) for a 1.9% discount to book value. Meanwhile KPG share price implies about a 20% discount to book values.
Edit: forgot the link https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431170
I have yet to see a good argument as to why rates will be cut any time soon aside from people speculating that maybe inflation will keep falling.
Had a good conversation over beers about this yesterday with some colleagues - consensus was that the presence of a large contingent of 'consultants' in any business was a sign of weak or at least un-supported leadership - especially with regards to the large big-4 type firms.
The modus operandi of consultancy firms, is to deploy sales teams to a) identify weak or less experienced folk in leadership positions b) apply time, money and resources becoming the trusted 'advisor' of that leader. This is the wine and dine phase.
If the leader is both weak/inexperienced and not supported well by his/her organisation, the consultancy firm become the go to for problems that leader is facing - and every problem looks like a nail to the consultancy firm's hammer - 'oh we have a team of specialists on that, bring us in, we can help'. A common scenario is that the leader doesn't want to seem weak within his/her organisation, so doesn't ask for help - but instead asks the consultancy firm of choice.
Of course, there's no such specialist team, there might be one guy/gal who can talk the talk, but inevitably, a platoon of recent graduates with shiny suits and shoes then show up - charging very high hourly rates.
From there, projects will typically slow, explode in budget/personnel costs, and deliver next to nothing as most of these graduates will be learning on the job - smart, sure, but next to no experience - certainly not the 'specialists' that were promised.
By this point however, the consultancy firm has established a nice feedback/reality filter, translating anything fed to leadership into essentially 'your permanants don't know what they're talking about, they're the reason these projects are failing, lets bring some more of our folk in'.
Until, at some point, the money well runs dry, the consultants back out having sucked the life out of the organisation, and said leader is removed (or jumps to join said consultancy firm as likely promised) and the organisation is left bereft of both capital and knowledgable personnel - the good ones will have jumped ship.
This happens predominantly more in government departments, where folk are often promoted well above their experience/capability, as government typically doesn't pay well enough to attract the right folk.
100% correct, the little poem written above is a critique of the consultancy model and makes the case for better pay and more resources in the public sector. Nice to see that someone else understands the consequences of constant public sector bashing and holding public sector wages and headcount down.
It's all very Dilbert isn't it.
I'd agree with all of that, bar the typically doesn't pay well enough, I've yet to find an organisation that doesn't pay daft amounts to the top execs, private companies even more so, $millions + bonuses, seriously? That's half the problem right there, justifying the salary. Easy to spend it, of course: buy some property to rent out. Problem is the ELT all seem to have the same modus operandi, namely keeping the backsides on that gravy train seat whilst making sure one's seen as the brightest people in the room; ego prevents them asking what should be done to improve the situation / find opportunities / increase revenue.
Anyone at the coal face knows, but never get asked. Or dare say what's wrong for fear of the sack (sorry, performance review etc). Thus restructuring is the default option to reduce costs, with a consultancy to advise best direction as per your comment. Ship out before the manure hits the fan when the realisation dawns that the org is still struggling with the same problems, now with less knowledge, no strategy or vision, a smaller salary bill, and a large, separate bill for consultancy and contractors.
Everyone now fears for their role because forty odd years of kowtowing to the greed of neoliberal idiocracy has instilled the idea that those at the top got there because they know best, and you too should be earning loads, if not – it's your fault, loser. Rent for life, smoke, pay tax, let us tell you what's wrong in society (our paymasters own the media) while we steal everything we can, and be grateful.
Having been a 'consultant' I can confirm that's pretty much how it works. Find the patsy, exploit them.
But when you say ... "This happens predominantly more in government departments ..." ... You'd be way wrong.
It just appears like that because government departments get far, far more public scrutiny. Believe me, we made much, much more from private companies than government and the 'costs' would barely show up in the company reports, if they ever did.
And the patsies? With luck, they'd move to another job - hopefully being promoted and with a bigger budget - and it could start all over again.
While I'm proud of the work I and my team did - I was not proud of the firms' methods, and some of the projects that others worked on while knowing full well the client was getting fleeced. This gives you some idea: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_march_(project_management)
Yeah, yeah ok CONF. Changing the subject, where is this NZD/USD going? From what you were saying a week or 2 ago (memory is fading badly these days) it was heading for 55? I need to make some decisions before I get too much further into the afternoon.
LOL. When I was suggesting the NZD may test 55c again I was looking months, even a year, ahead and factoring in steep OCR cuts to pick NZ Inc. up from off the floor. For daily / weekly movements someone here is an ex-currency trader. I'd certainly defer to their advice for shorter timeframes.
Good short doco on big consultancies in OZ.
Simeon Brown the minister with the least intellectual clout and least real world experience (he's been a politician since leaving school) again demonstrates why he has been selected for inclusion in Chris Luxon's cabinet. All ideology, evidence is secondary to the narrative. Possibly the worse National minister in Luxon's cabinet. He'll gladly take us all backwards to brown nose Luxon.
Trashing National's reputation for competence and fast running away from the centre policies to pay back their donors. Getting more and more like the Republican party/ UK Tories every day.
Transpower can take the blame for the misleading chart but Transpower never told him to correlate the chart with the oil and gas ban.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/05/15/transpower-takes-blame-for-simeon-bro…
That's hilarious. (But in a truly sad and disappointing way!)
And the Simian Brown never thought to question the oddity? And yet felt confidant to link it to oil and gas exploration? How stupid can you get!
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