OCR
US rates push up to fresh year-to-date highs as investors continue to push out the timing and scope of US Fed rate cuts this year. NZ rates follow up, with swap rate rises boosted
9th Apr 24, 7:29am
US rates push up to fresh year-to-date highs as investors continue to push out the timing and scope of US Fed rate cuts this year. NZ rates follow up, with swap rate rises boosted
Strong US labour market suggests their economy remains resilient and intensified the debate about when the Fed might ease monetary policy. US treasuries back near the yield highs for the year while the US dollar couldn't sustain initial gains
8th Apr 24, 7:34am
Strong US labour market suggests their economy remains resilient and intensified the debate about when the Fed might ease monetary policy. US treasuries back near the yield highs for the year while the US dollar couldn't sustain initial gains
With economic data having panned out roughly as the Reserve Bank forecast, this suggests there won't be an OCR change on April 10
7th Apr 24, 6:00am
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With economic data having panned out roughly as the Reserve Bank forecast, this suggests there won't be an OCR change on April 10
Risk appetite higher ahead of the key US employment report tonight; S&P500 up while Treasury yields show little net movement. AUD rises so that NZD/AUD fell to a 9-month low overnight
5th Apr 24, 7:46am
Risk appetite higher ahead of the key US employment report tonight; S&P500 up while Treasury yields show little net movement. AUD rises so that NZD/AUD fell to a 9-month low overnight
A softer than expected US services ISM moved markets but Powell didn't. Eurozone CPI below estimates in March; ECB might start rate cuts in June. Gold prices extend to fresh record highs having gained more than 15% since mid-February
4th Apr 24, 7:43am
A softer than expected US services ISM moved markets but Powell didn't. Eurozone CPI below estimates in March; ECB might start rate cuts in June. Gold prices extend to fresh record highs having gained more than 15% since mid-February
Global rates higher; US 10-year Treasury yield reaches fresh high for the year not helped by oil prices rising to fresh year-to-date highs. Equity investors show further signs of fatigue. Currency moves modest
3rd Apr 24, 7:41am
Global rates higher; US 10-year Treasury yield reaches fresh high for the year not helped by oil prices rising to fresh year-to-date highs. Equity investors show further signs of fatigue. Currency moves modest
The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to exceed all economist estimates. It was the first time the index moved into expansionary territory since September 2022. US treasury yields spiked higher in response and the USD rose
2nd Apr 24, 7:21am
The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to exceed all economist estimates. It was the first time the index moved into expansionary territory since September 2022. US treasury yields spiked higher in response and the USD rose
Squirrel's David Cunningham argues the Reserve Bank should start cutting interest rates on April 10
31st Mar 24, 8:00am
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Squirrel's David Cunningham argues the Reserve Bank should start cutting interest rates on April 10
Global equity markets are generally higher in the absence of economic data or fresh catalysts. Japanese policy makers huddle to seek plan to rescue the Yen
28th Mar 24, 7:47am
Global equity markets are generally higher in the absence of economic data or fresh catalysts. Japanese policy makers huddle to seek plan to rescue the Yen
Local interest rates shift up ahead of a new 2035 NZGB to be offered by syndication. US data mixed with labour market expectations tightening
27th Mar 24, 7:56am
Local interest rates shift up ahead of a new 2035 NZGB to be offered by syndication. US data mixed with labour market expectations tightening
PBoC and China state banks show support for the yuan, helping the NZD regain 0.60; NZD/AUD nudges down to a fresh four-month low near 0.9180. Market ignores Japan's top currency official's threat of intervention to support JPY
26th Mar 24, 7:45am
PBoC and China state banks show support for the yuan, helping the NZD regain 0.60; NZD/AUD nudges down to a fresh four-month low near 0.9180. Market ignores Japan's top currency official's threat of intervention to support JPY
Global equity markets consolidated near recent record highs while bond markets moved lower in yield. The Chinese yuan fell sharply after authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. Yuan weakness weighed on NZD & AUD
25th Mar 24, 7:31am
Global equity markets consolidated near recent record highs while bond markets moved lower in yield. The Chinese yuan fell sharply after authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. Yuan weakness weighed on NZD & AUD
Global equity markets rise to fresh record highs across the US, Europe and Japan. USD weakness after the Fed’s policy update yesterday has completely reversed. A surprise rate cut by the Swiss got the market’s attention but spillover limited
22nd Mar 24, 7:52am
Global equity markets rise to fresh record highs across the US, Europe and Japan. USD weakness after the Fed’s policy update yesterday has completely reversed. A surprise rate cut by the Swiss got the market’s attention but spillover limited
Market reaction to the Fed’s latest policy update has been well contained, with relief that the Fed still projects three rate cuts this year. The US Treasuries curve is steeper on the day, driven by lower rates at the short end
21st Mar 24, 7:57am
Market reaction to the Fed’s latest policy update has been well contained, with relief that the Fed still projects three rate cuts this year. The US Treasuries curve is steeper on the day, driven by lower rates at the short end
Global asset markets struggled for direction as investors looked ahead to key central bank meetings this week. Some see the Bank of Japan raising rates and ending curve control. US 10-year treasury yields move higher
18th Mar 24, 7:30am
Global asset markets struggled for direction as investors looked ahead to key central bank meetings this week. Some see the Bank of Japan raising rates and ending curve control. US 10-year treasury yields move higher
US PPI inflation comes in hot; US retail sales weaker than expected, consistent with a shift down in consumer spending. US Fed rate cut expectations pushed back. Oil prices at new four-month high as IEA now looking for a supply deficit through the year
15th Mar 24, 7:48am
US PPI inflation comes in hot; US retail sales weaker than expected, consistent with a shift down in consumer spending. US Fed rate cut expectations pushed back. Oil prices at new four-month high as IEA now looking for a supply deficit through the year
Global equity markets consolidate near record highs in the absence of first-tier economic data. There is growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will exit from its negative interest rate policy next week, on rising wages
14th Mar 24, 7:53am
Global equity markets consolidate near record highs in the absence of first-tier economic data. There is growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will exit from its negative interest rate policy next week, on rising wages
[updated]
Stats NZ says food prices fell 0.6% in February, while rent increases showed signs of stabilising and domestic airfares went up again; economists see 'upside risks' to March quarter inflation figures
13th Mar 24, 11:31am
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Stats NZ says food prices fell 0.6% in February, while rent increases showed signs of stabilising and domestic airfares went up again; economists see 'upside risks' to March quarter inflation figures
Kiwibank economists say central banks will ultimately need to have looser inflation targets in a 'world of rapidly rising, climate-related, costs
13th Mar 24, 9:34am
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Kiwibank economists say central banks will ultimately need to have looser inflation targets in a 'world of rapidly rising, climate-related, costs
US CPI data a touch higher than expected, providing no fuel for those looking for an imminent Fed rate cut. US Treasury yields up 5-6bps across the curve; USD modestly higher. BoJ speculation on imminent rate hike continues
13th Mar 24, 7:47am
US CPI data a touch higher than expected, providing no fuel for those looking for an imminent Fed rate cut. US Treasury yields up 5-6bps across the curve; USD modestly higher. BoJ speculation on imminent rate hike continues
US Treasury yields push higher, with supply factors weighing on the market and caution ahead of tonight's key US CPI report. Currency markets well contained but yen continues to outperform on speculation of a hawkish BoJ pivot as soon as next week
12th Mar 24, 7:39am
US Treasury yields push higher, with supply factors weighing on the market and caution ahead of tonight's key US CPI report. Currency markets well contained but yen continues to outperform on speculation of a hawkish BoJ pivot as soon as next week
US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week
11th Mar 24, 7:31am
US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week
Assistant Governor Karen Silk says the RBNZ has been consistently saying it will hold rates until inflation is heading back to 2%
8th Mar 24, 10:02am
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Assistant Governor Karen Silk says the RBNZ has been consistently saying it will hold rates until inflation is heading back to 2%
Powell: Fed "not far" from having the confidence to cut rates. ECB on hold, with a June rate cut signal. Wage data and commentary raise chance of BoJ ending negative policy rate stance as soon as March. US and European equities up 1% to fresh record highs
8th Mar 24, 7:49am
Powell: Fed "not far" from having the confidence to cut rates. ECB on hold, with a June rate cut signal. Wage data and commentary raise chance of BoJ ending negative policy rate stance as soon as March. US and European equities up 1% to fresh record highs
Fed Chair Powell faces lawmakers; reiterates that easier policy is likely at some point this year. US ADP employment and JOLTS data in line. US Treasury yields down. USD broadly weaker with DXY index down to it lowest in over a month
7th Mar 24, 7:47am
Fed Chair Powell faces lawmakers; reiterates that easier policy is likely at some point this year. US ADP employment and JOLTS data in line. US Treasury yields down. USD broadly weaker with DXY index down to it lowest in over a month