OCR
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
15th Feb 24, 7:45am
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
[updated]
Stats NZ says food prices rose 0.9% in January, while rents for new tenancies shot up 2.5%, and tobacco prices increased 6.4% - but airfares went into reverse
14th Feb 24, 11:25am
77
Stats NZ says food prices rose 0.9% in January, while rents for new tenancies shot up 2.5%, and tobacco prices increased 6.4% - but airfares went into reverse
Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
14th Feb 24, 7:29am
1
Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
[updated]
Influential RBNZ survey shows a decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its next Official Cash Rate decision
13th Feb 24, 3:35pm
20
Influential RBNZ survey shows a decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its next Official Cash Rate decision
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
13th Feb 24, 7:48am
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
[updated]
There are clear signs that the RBNZ’s 'heavy handed hikes' are inhibiting household demand, and hurting business, Kiwibank economists say
12th Feb 24, 12:22pm
36
There are clear signs that the RBNZ’s 'heavy handed hikes' are inhibiting household demand, and hurting business, Kiwibank economists say
The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
12th Feb 24, 7:33am
2
The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
ANZ's Sharon Zollner says the Reserve Bank could shock New Zealand by lifting the Official Cash Rate 50 basis points to 6%
9th Feb 24, 1:32pm
80
ANZ's Sharon Zollner says the Reserve Bank could shock New Zealand by lifting the Official Cash Rate 50 basis points to 6%
Traders and economists are losing hope that interest rate cuts could occur in the first half of 2024 after discouraging data updates
9th Feb 24, 12:33pm
12
Traders and economists are losing hope that interest rate cuts could occur in the first half of 2024 after discouraging data updates
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
9th Feb 24, 7:41am
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike
8th Feb 24, 7:49am
S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike
With the Reserve Bank having little choice but to dig its toes in to fight non-tradeable inflation, Gareth Vaughan hopes the Government has an open mind to providing long-term support
8th Feb 24, 5:00am
47
With the Reserve Bank having little choice but to dig its toes in to fight non-tradeable inflation, Gareth Vaughan hopes the Government has an open mind to providing long-term support
Stronger employment data could spook the Reserve Bank into raising the Official Cash Rate above 5.50%, economists say
7th Feb 24, 2:04pm
58
Stronger employment data could spook the Reserve Bank into raising the Official Cash Rate above 5.50%, economists say
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
7th Feb 24, 7:53am
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
David Hargreaves looks at the 'inevitable' discussion we are about to have as to whether it's still the right economic approach to just target low inflation at all costs
6th Feb 24, 6:00am
88
David Hargreaves looks at the 'inevitable' discussion we are about to have as to whether it's still the right economic approach to just target low inflation at all costs
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
5th Feb 24, 7:46am
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
Squirrel's David Cunningham says it's 'pretty realistic' to expect 1-year fixed home loan rates below 6% by the end of 2024, and below 5% by the end of 2025
3rd Feb 24, 9:00am
60
Squirrel's David Cunningham says it's 'pretty realistic' to expect 1-year fixed home loan rates below 6% by the end of 2024, and below 5% by the end of 2025
US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
2nd Feb 24, 7:50am
1
US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
Stats NZ says its household living-cost price indexes show that all household groups in the country faced higher cost increases in the 2023 year than the 4.7% indicated by the CPI, the official measure of inflation
1st Feb 24, 11:16am
28
Stats NZ says its household living-cost price indexes show that all household groups in the country faced higher cost increases in the 2023 year than the 4.7% indicated by the CPI, the official measure of inflation
Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar
1st Feb 24, 7:49am
Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar
Adrian Orr will give a keynote speech to a high-powered economic forum ahead of the Reserve Bank's first Official Cash Rate decision of the year
31st Jan 24, 2:27pm
33
Adrian Orr will give a keynote speech to a high-powered economic forum ahead of the Reserve Bank's first Official Cash Rate decision of the year
Higher than expected US job openings data points to resilience in the US labour markets. UST yields rebound. The Eurozone narrowly avoids recession. Yields on Chinese 10-year bonds fell to the lowest level in more than 20 years
31st Jan 24, 7:55am
Higher than expected US job openings data points to resilience in the US labour markets. UST yields rebound. The Eurozone narrowly avoids recession. Yields on Chinese 10-year bonds fell to the lowest level in more than 20 years
Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway suggests softer GDP and CPI data doesn't mean the central bank will cut interest rates
30th Jan 24, 10:55am
50
Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway suggests softer GDP and CPI data doesn't mean the central bank will cut interest rates
Markets in holding pattern but fully prices in April cut for ECB, dragging down European rates and EUR. Oil prices fall back after strong Asia open
30th Jan 24, 7:52am
Markets in holding pattern but fully prices in April cut for ECB, dragging down European rates and EUR. Oil prices fall back after strong Asia open
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing
29th Jan 24, 7:44am
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing