This is your opportunity to record what you think will happen in 2015. Are you brave enough?

This prediction thing is fraught with danger so perhaps we should leave it to the experts at treasury, bank economists and organisations such as BERL.

I'm with Mark Twain on next year. " Make predictions - but never about the future " 

Best prediction I have seen this year was that Putin, oil and the ruble would all turn 63 this year.

From the NY Times:

If there was anything in your past that you could have changed what would it be?

Rubles.

OCR remains unchanged the entire year causing Auckland house prices to continue double digit growth. Christchurch house prices will flatten off as the rebuild passes the peak.

A NZX50 company will be taken over by a Chinese company.

Banks will loosen credit standards to try and meet profit growth targets, but RBNZ will retain LTV restrictions.

A dry winter will see higher power prices and widespread drought in summer 2015/16.

Jan 2015: Upon return from Hawaii, the PM having contemplated his inability to sever ties to Cameron Slater, will resign and Paula Bennet will become PM.

Judith Collins will head the 4th Chinese bank established in NZ and Oravita will prosper.

Bill English will continue to mismanage the economy with fuzzy, wishful advice from Treasury.

Oil will go back to $90 by June 2015. 

NZD will touch 1 AUD briefly before Dec 2015.

The Republicans will rally around Jeb Bush and he will be well on the way to win the nomination.

NZ banks will trade freely in the Chinese Yuan.

Judith Collins will be back in the cabinet.

Kim Dotcome would be extradited to the US, if he doesn't go back to Hong Kong before that.

I predict, that we will see less of the last years lot of predictors.

There seems to be a trend.

I predict Steven will take over the planet and leave Interest,co for ever.

But I thought last year that legalising pot would be the way to make a buck for the Govt's coffers, so what would I know.

And no!, I do not smoke the wacky baccy.

But I do sometimes have a sense of humour.

By the way, where is Gummy and all the others.??

The economic war between Russia and the USA will escalate, perhaps with another false flag event.  Russia undermines the USD by offering discounts to its gas customers who are prepared to pay in gold.  The USA will escalate the Ukrainian conflict by providing lethal military aid to the Ukraine.  Russia will eventually be drawn into an all out battle on its western border, and things will really get ugly when NATO forces from Poland become involved.  The European economy will enter a severe downturn as Deutsche Bank's 100 Trillion in worthless derivatives will begin to unwind spreading contagion to stockmarkets all over the world.  While the world heads towards WWIII, money flies out of New Zealand.   A vicious cycle begins where Aucklanders who fail to service the debt on their negative equity are turned into distressed sellers.  REINZ figures show a 30% reduction in house values in six months.  People hear rumors about a bank run.   John Key holds a press conference assuring New Zealanders not to be concerned, and that our banks are the most stable in the world.  Within 48 hours a bank holiday has been declared...  More bad stuff happens.  Russia gets blamed, TTIP & TPPA get signed, and a new era of IMF dominated SDR world money is born.  Fat pat is presented the prize for the most pessamistic permabear of the year.

A new world currency is mooted as a solution to unsolvable GFC ongoing issues. 

NZ Universities are privatised and sold to Private Training Enterprises. 

The Reserve Bank governor will have to concede defeat and slash the OCR in order to reverse a rapidly strengthening NZ dollar.

The LVR rules will be removed everywhere with exception of the Auckland Super City Region once Wheeler realises the damage he is doing to smaller cities and the provinces.

40% of homes sold in Auckland during 2015 will be to Chinese buyers but government and real estate company heads will deny this and there will be no data available to track it.

Net migration gain into NZ in 2015 will be the strongest in our history.

Kiwis leaving for Australia will be the lowest number in decades.

The government and council will have to concede that the plan to build tens of thousands of homes in Auckland has no prospect of being achieved due to long lead time getting new subdivisions consented, serviced and ready for building and the shortage of labour.

Hourly rates for Builders, plumbers, plasterers, tilers, electricians, drainlayers, roofers etc will head towards the $100 plus GST level.

Housing NZ will become the single largest procurer of new homes in New Zealand through 2015.

We will once again see a sub 5% fixed mortgage rate perhaps even 4.99% fixed for 3 years.

NZ median house price will hit a new record high 10% above 2014 and in Auckland 15%.

Rents will increase as new CV figures in Auckland lead to higher rates bills.

The sharemarket will perform poorly throughout 2015.

The government will tamper with the superannuation age.

Len Brown will resign.

Bit coin will go mainstream.

Internet retailing/services will really start to fire, hitting local retailers and middlemen - we aint seen nothing yet.

Govt will look to link any firearms incidents with terrorists (such as Sydney with their recent mental health shooting) as an excuse to introduce greater state powers.

The baby boomers will continue to thieve off the younger generations.

Unemployment will rise. The cost of the welfare state with it.

NZ wlil remain on sale to the highest bidder.

One of the following will be true

1 The OCR will rise

2 The OCR will fall

3 Neither

Read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's 'The Black Swan'

Of a more serious vein I predict there will be a Black Swan event that will disturb the New Zealand economy and the terrible twins will have no real answer to it.

Bigblue - I was taking you seriously until you said Len Brown will resign:).

1. NZD at USD0.76, AUD0.95 by end 2015.

2. Oil at $80.

3. Russia will have a coup.

4. EU to be in depression but UK increases GDP.

5. GDP in NZ 2.4% 

6. China to implode.

7. Len Brown will not resign.

8. Auckland house prices will increase 9% YOY.

9. All Blacks win World Cup.

1. Dairy prices continue to fall.

2. Dairy farmers start going to the wall and the NZ government is unable to bail them out.

3. A dangerous bacteria is found in baby-milk powder and China stops buying dairy products from NZ.

4. There is mass panic in the dairy farming community as farm prices collapse.

5. Amazingly the only buyers are Ex-Im Bank  and the People's Bank of China.

6. Kiwis start panicing about the wholesale sell off of NZ farms and houses, but are labelled racist by the Rt Hon Key and his cabinet.

7. Ireland wins the Rugby World Cup and Kiwis riot through the streets.

8. New Zealand calls on Beijing to restore law and order and a Chinese Naval Task Force and 10 000  PLA marines are sent to restore peace.

9. Blue Meanie shakes head sadly and retires to Tokelau and lives happily for the rest of his days.

Someone will discover a link between the financial wealth of some of the individuals involved and the rail tunnel project going ahead. 

I'd do a prediction but then the likes of Vera, Trogg and Profile will hammer me for it if its even a wee bit wrong then claiming that obviously everything I say is totally and utterly wrong as well.

Oh wait I guess that is a prediction.....

Personally like scarfie I think the possible band of error is so large its just not possible with any accuracy to predict 2015.

For instance Citigroups back in June/August 2014 was predicting $100 oil for the foreseeable future, now its anyone's guess and thiers is still wild.

Oh bugger it, anyway some predictions,

1) We'll do diddly (ie nothing effective) on climate change.

I'll live with getting that one wrong if its wrong.

2) Results in Jan/Feb 2015 will show 2014 as the hottest year or second on the measured record. So 2014 will be the new 1998 for the deniers.  Meanwhile here's a suitable skit for them, and deniers no it isnt a duck,

http://imgur.com/vb8ne

3) The likes of Profile will keep on trolling.

4) I'll get the Cristov award for the thickest skin again, despite a strong challenge from Profile.

Meanwhile in the real world.

5) It is going to look no better economically in 2015 than 2014. 90% sure its going to be worse, so 10% stagnant. 0% chance significantly better.  For the 90%, the only Q is how much worse.

US economy continues to improve

Lifting US interest rates as QE removed

Lower commodity prices for NZ goods (e.g. dairy)

China subdued

Outflows in NZ on back of this

Result = Asset price adjustment in NZ

-share market drops

-Auckland housing market stagnates, buyers do not sell in the suburbs. Apartment market crashes

With the drop in oil prices, Chinese, Japanese, and German current account surpluses will be greater than ever, given they are all oil importers. 

They will continue to buy foreign assets, or loan money to foreigners, partly to launder money and acquire wealth, partly to finance other countries continuing to buy their goods. Without that financing, other countries wouldn't be able to do so.

Therefore expect huge Chinese, Japanese and even Euro money printing, with most of that money finding its way offshore.

Given NZ's open door to such asset sales and debt, we will continue to be a prime target.

Lifestyles therefore for most here will continue to be good, even as we sell off our assets. Immigration will continue to be very high, not so much because we need the people, but our business model wants their money. Traffic in Auckland will become even more of an obsession. Politically just enough wealth and income will be transferred down to keep wheels turning and revolt from happening.

The next generation's inheritance is though being blown to some extent.

This will mean a fiscal deficit remains likely, and even more so in the out years as demographics seriously catches up with us from say 2020 on, when a good number of boomers hit 70 and start needing serious health care.

The RBNZ will find it impossible to meet their inflation mandate without dropping interest rates, but will decline to do so, and just ignore the PTA agreement they have with Bill English, who will also ignore it.

The exchange rate will remain "unjustifiably high" and apart from talking about it, nothing will be done.

 With drink driving laws and traffic, home entertainment and local eating and drinking will be big. Obesity will continue to climb.

The mainstream media will continue to be pretty lame, because that's frankly what their audience wants.

Worldwide people will forget why Ebola was an issue (or at least wonder why it ever was) but global warming might be addressed in small ways. Solar power will carry on taking share. Desperate deluded people in the middle east will continue to kill each other; oil price collapses will not help their status. 

Generally though NZers will enjoy the year, and frankly concentrate on the Cricket and Rugby World Cups for most of it. Many will sneak in a couple of overseas trips between cups; car and television sales will remain as high as ever.

I've somewhat decided if you can't beat them join them. Might as well enjoy life, and endeavour to ensure at least my own kids are well placed for the future. 

NZD finishes 2015 @ 0.72USD

NZD touches parity but finishes 2015 @ 0.95AUD

Australia cuts rates by 50bps over the first half of 2015.

NZ rates remain unchanged.

A foreign property ownership register is instated during the first half of 2015. Data available shortly thereafter causes public outcry and foreign ownership restrictions are being developed by the end of 2015.

Auckland property bubbles by another 5% in the first half of 2015 but is flat in the second half.

The rest of NZ property is flat or falls.

Fonterra's final payout is $3.80/kg.

Oil finishes 2015 below $75USD/bbl.

National's budget deficit ends up at $750m with no surplus in sight.

2015:

- Australia will go into a mild recession; NZ will be dragged into this with a lower growth forecast

- NZD will be on par with AUD

- Dairy price will continue to fall, taking the cream off consumers spending and house prices 

- Dotcom will be in sunny Cuba

- Lastly, Len will be over the moon with his new baby boy..

A new flag  main colour white indicating NZ has surrendered to the money might of Chinese and Russian corrupt investment.

item from nzherald.co.nz:

Inside billionaire Alexander Abramov's $50 million New Zealand retreat

It's the size and scale, as much as the detail, which is breathtaking at Helena Bay - estimated to have cost more than $50 million to build. The volume of intricate Italian marble is awesome, the number ... More

1. China tanks

2. NZD equals 1.05AUD, 0.72USD

3. Large % of Auckland houses discovered to be bought by tainted money. Beginning of sell-off

4. Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas levels soar. Near panic by some.

5. Chelsea win EPL, ECC, more or less everything.

6. Black Caps fail to make semis at World Cup.

7. All Blacks lose in semis.

8. Dairy industry in crisis.

9. US will bail out their fracking industry, and get away with it, just.

10. John Key will resign.

Happy Christmas

Some random thoughts (after a teppanyaki lunch and bevvies, so take with the appropriate dose of NaCl):

• Local and 4-pillar banks cut down on rural lending, pleading 'over-exposure'
• Local and 4-pillar banks continue to finance the seemingly endless Auckland housing bubble, citing 'the historical solidity of property'
• Local branches of China-based banks begin to finance dairy and Ag in general, as the locals retreat, citing 'opportunity'
• The V1_0 attempt at a Property Buyer's Real Country of Origin Register is brought on line, months late and tens of millions over budget.
• Rio Tinto's Tiwai smelter lurches futher towards the Singularity.
• There is yet another local gubmint scam/snafu/meltdown a la Kaipara
• Awkland City manages 7,500 non-apartment consents - around 60% of what's needed.
• Housing affordability for FHB's lessens for another year in succession.
• Productivity Commission reports on 'using land for housing' and concludes that Auckland planning is a shining example of economic cluelessness, yet is Too Big to Fix.
• Mike Greer/Concision turns on the German Housing Machine and produces flat-pack houses for $800/sqm

Hey, we can Hope...

Ready for GFC II?

 http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/managing/blogs/work-in-progress/ar…

There is public warfare between National's liberal/progressive and rentier/status quo wings.

The weapon of choice is 'dirty politics' type revelations.

John Key gets drunk, decides an early election will solve his problems.....

2015 will bring



1) - No change to Labours fortunes.

Labours economic philosophy is the same as Nationals (Capitalism). Until they get an alternative they are doomed.

We used to have Capitalism and Communism now we just have Capitalism. The world is desperate for an alternative and needs a modern day Karl Marx.



2) – An Asian political party will be formed and hold the balance of power



3) - As part of the ANZUS alliance we will have a visit from an American warship.



4) – The FED will introduce a new digital currency to run parallel to both the USD and the Euro. Ultimately to become a global digital currency controlled by the FED.



The FED and ECB realise that capitalism has destroyed the currency. As we have seen they cannot fix the economy that is why they will bring in this new currency.



5) – The NZRB realises it has no real power but continues to fiddle so as to look important. The OCR may move but by the end of the year it will be back where it started.



6) – NZ will see a surge in electric cars.



7) - Auckland house prises will rise by 10%



8) – Immigration will exceed 40k



9) -  – Fontera milk prices will remain low.



10) – There will be a big political scandal but nothing will change.

Oh, and Kim Dotcom will write an app for John key that helps him remember things. - but it will fail.

Asian buying switches to commercial property, farms and NZ companies. NZ50 surges to daily new records before late sell off.

Gold will end 2015 below $1,000

The DJIA will end 2015 above 20,000.

Dairy industry payout woes.

Olly Newland will up date and re-issue his run-away best seller book: "The Day The Bubble Bursts"

link:

http://www.ollynewland.co.nz/bio-olly-newland/

Bernard will still be blaming all the worlds problems on the Baby Boomers

The National Government, John Key et al will still fail to acknowledge the fact that the New Zealand,  especially Auckland's property market is NZ's version of QE .......  also Aussie is not looking at all well for 2015 ...sorry cobbers ! ......almost forgot !! Auckland residential property prices will go even higher than Sydney's ....and then some !!

Ted Fischer: We talk a lot about sustainability these days, but your work raises the question: Is collapse inevitable?

Arthur Demarest: On the future of the U.S., or of Western civilization in general, I tend to be quite pessimistic. Perhaps that is simply because “collapse” is what I do. As an archaeologist, I have excavated single trenches, just a few meters deep, in which you can see stratigraphic levels of several civilizations. We find layers of artifacts and evidence indicating periods of great prosperity, but always separated by levels of burned earth, ash and artifacts that reflect the epochs of social disintegration, chaos and tragedy that seem to conclude the achievements and aspirations of every society.

With that caveat about my gloomy perspective, I would say that today I see most of the symptoms of societies on the brink of collapse, not just in the U.S., but in the tightly interconnected societies of Western civilization – now essentially world civilization.

Ted Fischer: You have observed that in a crisis, leaders “do what they always do, just more of it.” Could you explain?

Arthur Demarest: When there is pressure for leaders to respond to problems or crises, they often simply intensify their efforts in their particular defined sphere of activity – even if that’s not relevant to the real problem. To do otherwise requires taking on entrenched practices and asserting power in areas where it often will not be well received. And leaders tend to see major crises more as threats to their own position rather than as systemic challenges for the societies that they govern or the institutions that they manage.

Frenzied grand constructions, wars and great rituals are among the common responses of ancient leaders to crises. These demonstrate powerful responses by the leaders (enhancing their threatened hold on power), but almost never really address the problems themselves. A cynic might characterize the giant U.S. stimulus bill of 2009 as such an effort.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/indiana-jones-collapsed-cultur…

Yes. Andrew J for commentor af the year. Always useful and real. Often completely relevant, desptiebeing info from a different paddock.

I have devised a computer model, the warmists amongst the readers will know all about those, however this one first asks you what you want, up or down. (Something the models never did when AGW was invented back in the late 70's and we were still getting out of the next coming ice age then)

It will take you from there wherever you want to go.

Works perfectly. (sorry I have a problem with models which don't align with actual observations, a continuing debate with some of my friends). I like the unadjusted observations much like the actual end of the month $ number in the bank account. If it is not up it is worse, if it is it is better.

In the end it all depends on your parameters. The economy will improve if you see 1.5% as an improvement, so it is and it is not. Interest  rates won't rise much or not at all. Fish will still be caught in the Hauraki Gulf. The dollar will do what it has always done, up and down.

In the end the new year will be what you make of it.

My new year will be great, have a good one all of you (that includes those who fear that the world will fall apart for whatever reason, it won't so you can relax).

Regards

Jake

This on the NZH website would tend to indicate our interest rates should decline in 2015

Global economy hanging on a knife edge

I see we are today at 0.956 against the Aus $. How long can Wheeler hold off slashing the OCR?

Auckland: over $1 million housing property stalls but does not go down, $500k to $1 million houses go up, most apartments stall and probably go down (who wants an apartment when you can get a house)

Rest of NZ: flat slightly up

OCR will go up only as our Governor is a contrarian...

Continuing Deflation across commodities/tradeables.

Continuing Inflation across asset classes as a refuge (temporary) from the realities of excess debt. 

More lies and evasion from the temples of finance as they double down on sacrificing real lives to appease the artifice that is faux-capitalism (bigger temples and more crucifixions(?)  didnt work for the Mayans, wont work now)

Eventually it all becomes local and people realise how hollowed out our economies have become.

The rising cost of energy production is a sign of diminishing returns to producing energy. We need to dump more and more of our human efforts and more and more of our resources into extracting oil or whatever substitute we have in mind. This effort has to take place farther and farther in advance of actually getting the energy product out. (The problem is not exactly declining EROI–EROI does not measure enough of the pieces in my view.) By putting more and more into the energy system, there is less and less for everything else, so the “everything else” (that is, non-energy) portion must shrink. The way the economy, in fact, shrinks is through less wages for people and more people without jobs, leading to less ability to pay for goods and services. This lack of ability to pay for goods and services flows back as inadequate demand for products of all types, including energy products. This seems to be happening already.

Going forward, I expect that collapsing debt will make the problem of too low prices for reinvestment even worse. In the past, increasing debt has been used as way of ramping up demand in advance of people being able to pay for goods. In fact, as we add more and more energy products that need to be paid for far in advance of when they pay back their benefit, this adds to the effect. If the economy could keep growing rapidly, this would not be a problem. The economy can’t keep growing, though, even with the new energy products. The new energy products don’t stimulate the economy enough to keep it from shrinking–they are too high cost, and their true benefit is too low and flows back into the economy too slowly. In a shrinking economy, it becomes harder and harder to pay back debt with interest. So there tend to be many more debt defaults, shrinking the economy even more. (If interest rates rise, before all of these things happen, the higher interest rates also tend to lead to debt defaults, with the same effect.)

Economists have found a way around diminishing returns with respect to energy, by claiming that the economy doesn’t really need energy. Technology is enough. If you believe this, energy prices can keep rising forever.

Happy new year to all.

http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/12/the-tragedy-of-the-…

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/28/rightwing-ideology…

Ambrose’s 2015 predictions.

Worth a read.

Predicitons for the coming year.  I fear that "selfie sticks" will become the next big stupid thing.

Oil prices = who knows?  I think prices will yoyo for the next decade though. 

Climate change will continue to be denied by the vocal minority.

I will diagree with something profile says.

Society probably won't collapse this year,  for humans to survive lets hope it happens soon though.  

This year will be another record year for both global temperature and CO2 emission.  

Final prediction technology won't save us.

1) The US shale oil industry will begin to implode by midyear due to low oil prices and will receive a bailout from the US government which will likely allow JPMorgan and friends to "save" the US from the structural risks of a massive credit event by purchasing oil companies at subsidized prices. The completion of the sale of shale oil to the big banks will bottom tick the market and oil prices will begin a slow rising trend as the big banks and the NYFed(property of big banks) unwind their oil futures short positions.

2) Since shale oil is the easiest oil to start and stop and because the world depends on oil for its prosperity the big American banks will be the new OPEC. Being banks, they will manipulate the global price of this critical resource to their own advantage.

3) The US Fed will raise interest rates in 2015 which will dramatically lift the US dollar in comparison to other currencies. This corresponding drop in emerging market currencies will lead 20% to half of the worlds businesses to default on their USD loans. Then the US Banks will swoop in like vultures "rescuing" a significant portion of the worlds' businesses and extracting assets from vulnerable governments all over the world.

4) New Zealand dairy and exports in general will be helped by lower NZD and reduced competition by US dairy exporters who will be sorely wounded by the high USD.

5) At least one Australian bank and probably several will be severely wounded by the a) carry trade unwind, b) CDS, and c) derivatives bets and will be bought by a large American bank. My guess is ASB.  

A recession in the US

A recession in Aussie

No growth in the Auckland housing market.

Forcasting Doom is fun, especially now that Chinese, Australian and the US malinvestments are catching up with them. 

Grats to those who called the big moves of last year!

Robust growth in the USA and UK in 2015. Both currencies to appreciate against the Kiwi dollar in 2015.  Overall most major currencies to depreciate against the US dollar in 2015.

Auckland House Prices to rise 3-5% on average in 2015 Significantly slower growth in house prices.

Dairy prices to stay low for a couple of years due to slower demand from China and milk sloshing around.  A harsh drought in the coming years may be the only savour to pushing milk prices higher.

The USA raises interest rates in the first half of the year. 

The Russians, one of the worlds largest holders of USA treasury bonds dump their holdings in retaliation for sanctions and buys gold as a currency hedge forcing USA interest rates to go up again.

.