A quarterly survey has found just a net 12% of Aucklanders believe now is a good time to buy property, down from 18% three months earlier as house prices surge to painful levels.
The ASB survey of housing confidence found just a net 4% of Cantabrians thought it was a good time to buy in Christchurch as 77% believed house prices were rising there.
Nationwide housing confidence was broadly steady in the three months to July, although house price expectations continued to surge, ASB said.
The ASB Housing Confidence Index edged up by one point over the quarter, with a net 22% now is a good time to buy, up from 21% in the previous quarter.
ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley said the drop in confidence in Auckland reflected tight conditions in the Auckland market.
“Levels of new listings and housing inventory are very low in the region, and the latest drop in confidence suggests it is increasingly becoming a seller’s market. The experience of the mid-2000’s tells us that a weak confidence reading does not imply that people don’t want to buy, just that they view market conditions as challenging from a buyer’s perspective," Tuffley said.
Overall, a net 51% expected prices to rise over the next twelve months, up from 45% the previous quarter.
“Price expectations remain highest in Christchurch and Auckland, which reflects the fact that supply is tightest in these two markets," he said.
Tuffley said house price inflation would be monitored closely by the Reserve Bank.
However, price increases were likely to be constrained in the short term by a cautious approach to debt, weak net migration and modest employment growth, ASB said, adding inflationary pressures were subdued.
"Those factors will encourage the RBNZ to leave the cash rate on hold for the foreseeable future, Tuffley said.
“We expect the OCR to remain on hold until June 2013, with gradual increases occurring from that time. Supply constraints and the low interest rate environment should underpin a continued appreciation in house prices of around 4 percent over the next year on a nationwide basis.”
(Updated to make clear the numbers are net of those saying now is a good time to buy minus those saying it was a bad time to buy)
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