New listings up for start of spring but housing market likely to remain subdued

Property

Realestate.co.nz reported a rise in new listings and average asking prices in September, but listing numbers are still well below 12 months ago

9th Oct 17, 4:26pm by Greg Ninness

There was just a hint of spring in the latest figures from property website Realestate.co.nz with new listings rising in September compared to August but remaining well down on September last year.

Realestate.co.nz received 9283 new residential listings in September, up 6% compared to August but down 12% compared to September 2016.

In Auckland there was only a slight change in the number of new listings between August and September, but they were down 17% compared to September last year.

A similar trend was evident in the Waikato and Bay of Plenty, which posted small rises in the number of new listings compared to August, but they remained down 12% and 22% respectively compared to September 2016.

In the Wellington region new listings were down 14% compared to last year and in Queenstown-Lakes they were down a whopping 21%, although that is in a fairly small market where the figures can be volatile.

Christchurch went against the trend with 1445 new listings in September compared to 1173 in August and 1390 in September last year, putting new listings up 11% compared to a year ago..

In Otago the number of new listings was almost unchanged compared to a year ago.

There was also a slight rise in the national average asking price of newly listed properties, which increased from $608,315 in August to $619,004 in September but remained below the February peak of $648,762.

In Auckland the average asking price rose from $915,325 in August to $943,885 in September, but was also down from February's peak of $978,652.

Most regions followed a similar trend although there were significant falls in average asking prices in Taranaki, the West Coast and Central Otago-Lakes, while prices were almost flat in Manawatu/Whanganui.

In Taranaki the average asking price dropped from $392,462 in August to $356,570 in September, which was also well down from the February peak of $403,596.

In Central Otago-Lakes the average asking price dropped from $873,314 in August to $807,709 in September, which was the lowest it has been in the last 12 months.

The overall figures suggest the usual spring lift in the residential property market is on the way, although activity is likely to remain at lower levels than previous years and the advantage is likely to remain with buyers rather then vendors, because of the elevated levels of stock in the market, which gives buyers more choice and makes them less likely to agree to an above market price to secure the property they want.

So vendors will still need to ensure their properties are realistically priced to achieve a sale in a reasonable timeframe.

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38 Comments

by tothepoint - d… | 9th Oct 17, 11:39pm 1507545566

The housing market will continue taking a breather. It will likely remain soft for another few months.

Volumes traded will be noticeably down - particularly in the most preferred areas (e.g. inner city suburbs of Auckland and Wellington).

But continuing low interest rates, a robust economy and population growth means that house prices have little more (if any) downside.

by RichMuhlach | 10th Oct 17, 8:11am 1507576297

The housing market will continue taking a breather. It will likely remain soft for another few years.

Volumes traded will be noticeably down everywhere, even in the most preferred areas (e.g. inner city suburbs of Auckland and Wellington).

Even with continuing low interest rates, a robust economy and population growth, the curbing of capital flight from China and inability of banks to lend out million dollar loans to local kiwis who can only afford $500k means that house prices have a lot more (yes, a lot more) downside.

by CJ099 | 10th Oct 17, 8:34am 1507577687

I think you'll find that the market will remain in decline for the next few YEARS not months TTP. Unless you can actually present so evidence of the return of Asian Investors or are you relying on the next Chinese New Year? Some how I think you're going to be disappointed.

by skudiv | 10th Oct 17, 7:04pm 1507615488

Wait what, listings are down? Still so much pent up demand.

by PointMade | 9th Oct 17, 9:06pm 1507536365

Highly doubt we will see any drop in house prices.

by gingerninja | 10th Oct 17, 9:07am 1507579644

*echo echo echo*

by Averageman | 10th Oct 17, 1:37pm 1507595833

Time will tell. Still picking that slashing immigration, stopping overseas ownership, fencing losses, better tenancy laws (if your a tenant), rental wof, higher scruitny on money laundering and launching a state house building program will have a bit more impact than... nothing. Give it a few years.

Council are still tards but if they do double rates to get some more revenue Awk will not on the most livable list, it will be on the most construction disrupted.

Add in some headwinds and speculate that Trump launches on NK or visa versa, causing a which side are we on with china and the US - great trade option that one. Add in appartment market face plant in Aussie, causing our biggest export market to crap itself and our banks owners to do the same. That would do nothing to lending policy and rates in NZ as well...?

Remember trump win, brexit, and national loosing were all impossible headwinds as well. But hay... keep that ponzi going at all costs.

by Fritz | 9th Oct 17, 9:49pm 1507538953

oh come on now, house prices not dropping significantly in NZ is an unshakeable, unquestionable eternal truth deeply embedded in the universe.

by skudiv | 10th Oct 17, 7:05pm 1507615521

It's a law of economics.

by Bluff | 9th Oct 17, 9:50pm 1507539044

Market is in a holding pattern for now, unlikely to go up though. I say unlikely as that would require another influx of Chinese capital to kick off the ponzi pyramid again. That will depend on our mmp system & China policy. So where is the new capital coming from that can support these prices increasing or even sustaining them? Not your average Kiwi on average wages even if they give up smashing avocados on Sundays. Neither your average immigrant thats supporting up our low wage economy driving ubers, filling cars or taking your food orders. Neither your investor looking at negative returns with no CG to help them sleep at night. When did a million bucks become not a million bucks relative to our wages?

by keywest | 9th Oct 17, 10:03pm 1507539804

A Ponzi scheme by definition is investing in something which is a based on a fraudulent non existing asset. The last time I checked ponsonby villas were weathering the storm quite well so to speak.

by CJ099 | 10th Oct 17, 8:56am 1507578996

@Keywest: Then the definition remains true. Who the hell do you think can afford those massively over inflated multi million house. It's the Money Launders don't you get it? And even they're going to be pulling out soon as the Auckland property market continues to declining. For two reasons: 1) It's so easy to spot them now since the there's very few multi million dollar homes selling. Since China has radically clamped down on capital flight we've all know that.

2) The market is in decline so they won't be able to recover the money they originally laundered, so they'll have find other outlets to launders their I'll gotten gains. I hear that the international art market is going through a boom at the moment along with bitcoin.

by Yvil | 10th Oct 17, 11:41am 1507588892

I went to B &T auction last Wednesday afternoon, out of 10 lots for sale, only expensive houses sold (4 out of 10) lowest for $1.97 Mill highest $2.6 Mill including a house on Summer St in Ponsonby that sold for 170% of CV at $2.1 Mill
Sorry CJ but Keywest is right

by CJ099 | 10th Oct 17, 1:02pm 1507593773

Well that really doesn't prove anything Yvil. Can you clarify your comment, you just seem to be spouting gibberish in the hope that the rest of us will believe you?

by Cowpat | 10th Oct 17, 1:36pm 1507595789

Yvil, you wrote last week Wednesday, "I have just walked out of this weeks Barfoots auction."27a Lewin Rd sold for 2.65 million. . There seemed to be, a very clear trend, lower price homes were passed in , higher end houses sold. Question, given that 27a Lewin , did not sell at auction and remains marketed, does your current theory have much basis. Well done on attending an auction room though.

by Didge | 9th Oct 17, 10:20pm 1507540805

And here is another probable blow for real estate investors. http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/early-edition/opinion/rachel-smalley…

by MortgageBelt | 10th Oct 17, 5:59am 1507568396

Jumbo mortgages now a concern
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/university-of-auckland/news/article.cfm?c_id=…
But why are jumbo mortgages needed to buy a house in Auckland Now? What factors drove house price hyperinflation so NZers were put in this situation?

by Stev-O | 10th Oct 17, 7:13am 1507572788

Another article from an academic who doesn't have any real world experience unable to think about the consequences and flow-on effects. You can't compare the current mortgage lending to 1984. NZ was a more closed off economy and the money was much more expensive with the interest rates of near/over 20%. If we go with what this academic says and maybe get to the point where a current million dollar house drops to $300k, what do you think it will do to the home ownership rate and the rental market? If you squeeze it to the point where the decently-offs can't buy, what makes you think the poor will be able to make any purchase? Do you think the million dollar house commanding $800 in rent will also reduce proportionally as well? There is a finite amount of houses so you can't have $300k houses and everyone own. Academics just doesn't seem to get it as they are mainly 1-dimensional thinkers buried in their textbooks.

by Didge | 10th Oct 17, 7:38am 1507574302

Yes, there were high interest rates in the 1980/s but also high inflation and annual increases in wages. If one survived the first few years of a new house and its mortgage, then ones principal in relation to the increased value of the home became rapidly smaller. Mortgages could be paid off in enormously shorter time periods than now. In a faster changing modern world with many more jobs becoming obsolete due to technology increases, then having a mortgage requiring perhaps four decades to pay off must be extremely risky. If we are now in an environment where the silly capital gains will no longer occur then having such mortgages will probably be very dangerous. Sadly it will probably hurt first home owners as well as those that deserve to get burnt such as specuvestors.

by Stev-O | 10th Oct 17, 8:58am 1507579111

But that's the thing. You can't have that in a globalised and low interest rate/inflation environment and there were hardly any demand for houses then (compared to now). Cheap credit always increases asset prices in search for better yield. The fact that we've allowed runs on immigrations (early 2000s with Labour and mid 2010s with National) made the problem accelerate. Now we have a huge demand for accomodation and potentially overpopulation in Auckland, but introducing DTI like the academic is suggesting isn't going to quench the need of all the people already here. It will just decrease the home ownership rate, increase rents, and only the rich will own.

by sharetrader | 10th Oct 17, 7:45am 1507574731

i think you missed his point, it was about the amount of money banks were willing to lend compared to years ago which ramped up the debt levels and was part of the problem of fueling the increases,
that was because of basel and the securities changes made on how banks treated housing loans
i can remember the days of going to the bank cap in hand and having to jump through hops to get a mortgage compared to now, where they chase you to give you money because according to the banks mortgage lending is as safe as houses

" In Basel 1 in 1992, 50 per cent risk weightings were applied to mortgages. In Basel II, agreed in 2004, that was reduced to 35 per cent. Basel II then added a further twist, introducing an option for banks to calculate their own internal risk weightings"

by MortgageBelt | 10th Oct 17, 7:49am 1507574981

Yes, a household with income of 120 k today can borrow 700k plus whereas in the 1980s an income of 45k may only get a 60k mortgage. Far more risk today even though servicing rates may be similar.

by Stev-O | 10th Oct 17, 9:06am 1507579583

Yes, and Basel 3 made improvements from the horrors of Basel 2 but introducing DTI like the academic is suggesting isn't the solution to everything. Yes, it will restrict bank from further loose lending but is there a guarantee DTI will plummet house prices without any other consequences? Nearly everyone I know earns at least $100k and I know a late 20s couple who have combined income of over $220k with $400k deposit. I know another couple also late 20s with combined income over $200k and I'm sure these aren't just isolated cases in Auckland. Introducing DTI would do absolute jack to these people. It's a way for the rich to get richer and poor to get completely locked out. Rent will of course rise due to demand with lower home ownership rate, look at London.

by mja | 10th Oct 17, 2:42pm 1507599744

Sharetrader, it is actually quite difficult to get banking financing at present. They are hardily chasing people around.

by Yvil | 10th Oct 17, 11:53am 1507589581

Title: "Housing crisis to end in tears"
The author is right in saying much of the house price inflation is due to the increased bank lending.
Then the author says:
"Banks are looking to maximise their profits and compete against each other; to do this they need to grow their mortgage portfolios"
and
"the author does not think the election outcome will have any marked effect on the housing market"

I other words, no change in sight

by ex socialist | 10th Oct 17, 8:11am 1507576281

Am I being a conspiracy theorist - or is it odd that the release of the REINZ days to sell and average selling price figures have been delayed continuously over the last week - and are now scheduled for release on Thursday - which may be a day there is other news of significance.

by two otherguys | 10th Oct 17, 8:35am 1507577742

The REINZ is first and foremost a lobbyist lobby group. As a lobbyist their overarching role is to exercise influence and act in the interests of their members - such as dealing in

Political Spin and

Peak Bodies, Peddlers of influence, Power Brokers, Rent Seekers, Lobbyists, Patronage, Influencers, Vested Interests, Urgers and Shysters, Pushers, Manicurists, dealers, boosters

If you thought the REINZ wasn't mindful of the impact of the data they control and release you'd be dreamin'

by RichMuhlach | 10th Oct 17, 9:46am 1507581997

TradeMe listings for Auckland properties are slowly climbing up. Now at 9.7k+ was around 9.5k/9.6k last week and down to 9.2k/9.3k a few weeks back. Expect to see more listings but less comparable sales in the coming Spring / Summer months.

by THE MAN 2 | 10th Oct 17, 2:35pm 1507599344

House prices in NZ in general are still extremely affordable!
Chch the second or third largest city in NZ you can still buy a reasonable home for less than renting.
A 400k home in an average suburb at Interest only with no deposit down, is roughly 400 per week interest.
Of course less with a deposit paid plus your rates and insurance etc.
You would be paying about 450 to 470 at the moment for such a home going by our prices.
Bleating on about Auckland and first home buyers not being able to get on the property ladder is down right a waste of time,
Widen your horizons and you will be far better off!

by Didge | 10th Oct 17, 3:11pm 1507601518

Christchurch is already having major flood problems and over coming decades it will become much worse.
A chart on the following page shows the most at risk places in NZ.
https://teggtalk.wordpress.com/2017/09/28/thames-in-top-ten-in-nz-for-r…

by bw | 28th Oct 17, 8:23am 1509132199

Re Christchurch flooding.
Someone on here wrote last week(?) that they saw dynamite being built into the stop-banks in China to blow the banks if flooding threatened a City.
Well, same for Christchurch! After the 1973 (?) floods, when the centre of Chch got flooded, the new stopbanks on the Waimak have explosives built into them at strategic points to allow for them to be blown and the flood water directed to wherever it is required to go.
So, yes, Christchurch has flooding issued yet to deal with.
(PS: Anyone who's seen the Cust Drain in full roar will know what I mean!)

by gordon | 10th Oct 17, 5:15pm 1507608959

Extremely affordable and getting more affordable by the day. You would be wiser to rent in Christchurch where the rents are actually dropping also and try to buy at the bottom. If that ever occurs of course.

by THE MAN 2 | 10th Oct 17, 5:53pm 1507611212

Gordon, totally agree better to rent in chch.
We love good tenants.
We don't sell so,prices irrelevant!
Returns are great!

by gordon | 10th Oct 17, 6:41pm 1507614067

Pull the other leg The Boy. Being an agent you would not love your values and rents retreating. Oh to be diversified.

by swapacrate | 10th Oct 17, 9:29pm 1507624195

Be good to hear from FHB on average wage in CHCH, with family whether it is affordable or not.

I think 400K sounds reasonable though, but thats me. Im not a FHB in CHCH though. But I wouldnt live in CHCH, so hard to say. Prefer Tauranga or Hawkes Bay in NZ.

by THE MAN 2 | 10th Oct 17, 4:50pm 1507607448

Don't buy in a flood prone area, not that hard.
Auckland has far more problems than Chch now and will get worse,in years to come!

by gingerninja | 10th Oct 17, 6:38pm 1507613926

The Gordon and THE MAN 2 romance, alive and well in 2017. How long has it been guys? Still so passionate after all this time.

by Alter Ego | 28th Oct 17, 9:04am 1509134684

I do believe they have a Mandate to appear here, they say opposite attracts.

That is why we have a divorced opinion on the subject of Houses.

Can't live with em, cannot live without em.

Counting the cost, then splitting the proceeds, leveraging up, divorced from reality, repeat and rinse...until they all dry up.

If only. The weather would do the same.