This content is from Roy Morgan. The full original version is here.
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for June 2023 shows a potential right-leaning National/ Act NZ coalition has a clear lead on 45%, unchanged since May, ahead of the governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 40%, down 3% points.
However, despite the clear lead for the right-leaning National/Act NZ potential partners, they are still two seats short of securing a majority of seats in the next Parliament.
Although the right-leaning parties are attracting higher support, the main Opposition Party, National, has seen its support decline in June, down 1.5% points to only 30%. This is the lowest level of support for National since Christopher Luxon became National Leader on November 30, 2021.
The decline in support for National has been a direct gain for Act NZ which increased its support by 1.5% points to 15% in June – the highest level of support for the right-leaning libertarian party for 18 months since December 2021.
Support for the governing Labour Party was down 0.5% points to 30.5% while support for their governing partners the Greens dropped by 2.5% points to 9.5% in June – the lowest support for the party for nearly a year since August 2022.
Although the right-leaning National/ Act NZ potential coalition is in the box seat to form Government in October, they are still falling short of having enough support to win a majority in the Parliament with the crossbench set to determine who will form New Zealand’s next Government.
Maori Party support surges to a record high of 7% in June – and still in the balance of power
The results for June suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and the party in the box seat to determine the next Government is the Maori Party, with support surging 2.5% points to a record high of 7% in June.
Support for New Zealand First fell back in June, down 0.5% points to 3% and not enough support to win seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament.
A further 5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, up 1% point from a month ago, including 3% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party, 1% (unchanged) who support Democracy NZ and 2% (unchanged) who support the other parties.
A potential 59 seats for a National/Act NZ coalition and 52 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition puts the Maori Party in the box seat to determine the next New Zealand Government
If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would score 59 seats, ahead of the 52 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition – but not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.
The projected results show the Maori Party with 9 seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament would be in the box seat to determine who New Zealand’s Prime Minister after this year’s election would be – either Chris Hipkins (Labour) or Christopher Luxon (National).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 955 electors during June. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4%, unchanged, did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was up 4 points to 84 in June
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up 4pts to 84 in June, its highest since March. A majority of 54% (down 0.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 38% (up 2.5% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 6.3pts to 85.5 and is clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 74.9 on June 19-25, 2023.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| Total | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | ||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Labour | 30.5 | 36 | 26 | 46.5 | 25 | 23 | 27.5 |
| Greens | 9.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 3.5 |
| Labour/ Greens | 40 | 44 | 34.5 | 54.5 | 36 | 40 | 31 |
| National | 30 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 30 | 22 | 39.5 |
| Act NZ | 15 | 11 | 14 | 7.5 | 19.5 | 20 | 18.5 |
| National/ Act NZ | 45 | 41 | 45 | 36.5 | 49.5 | 42 | 58 |
| Maori Party | 7 | 9.5 | 15 | 3.5 | 4 | 7 | 0.5 |
| NZ First | 3 | 2.5 | 2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 5.5 |
| Others | 5 | 3 | 3.5 | 2 | 7 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | |||||||
| Right Direction | 38 | 38 | 34.5 | 41.5 | 38 | 42 | 32.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 54 | 55.5 | 60 | 50 | 53 | 47 | 60.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 84 | 82.5 | 74.5 | 91.5 | 85 | 95 | 72 |
| Can’t say | 8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Women narrowly favour Labour/Greens while men favour a potential National/Act NZ coalition
On an overall basis women narrowly favour the current governing Labour/Greens coalition on 44% by only 3% points ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 41%.
Women aged 50+ favour the current governing Labour/Greens coalition on 54.5% nearly 20% points ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 36.5%. However, younger women aged 18-49 prefer a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 45% over 10% points ahead of Labour/Greens on 34.5%.
When it comes to men there is a clear preference for a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 49.5% well ahead of the current Labour/Greens governing coalition on 30%.
A large majority of 58% of older men aged 50+ support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government compared to under a third, 31%, who support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
There is a far closer result for younger men aged 18-49 with 42% supporting a potential National/Act NZ coalition government compared to 40% who support the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
Support for Act NZ is clearly defined by gender and is far higher amongst men at 19.5% compared to only 11% support amongst women.
Support for the Greens is higher amongst younger men than any other gender and age group at 17%. This compares to only 3.5% of men aged 50+. In comparison, support amongst women is relatively even with 8.5% support amongst women aged 18-49 and 8% support amongst women aged 50+.
The Maori Party attracts the support of 9.5% of women including 15% support from women aged 18-49 and 3.5% support from women aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4% of men including 7% of men aged 18-49 and 0.5% of men aged 50+.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 72 in June
Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased by 4pts to 84 in June.
Among women overall now a majority of 55.5% (up 2.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 38% (up 4.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 82.5 (up 2pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was down 3.5pts to 74.5 while it was up 8pts to 91.5 for women aged 50+.
A majority of men, 53% (down 3.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 38% (up 2.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 85 (up 6pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 was up 12pts to 95 while for older men aged 50+ it was down 2pts to only 72.
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-23
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – June 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.
144 Comments
Aren't they sometimes referred to as 'Rogue Morgan' for this very reason?
I imagine that some of the more extreme element of Green party support might jump waka to TPM (or back again) but 7% seems a wholly unbelievable figure.
It would be like a poll coming out showing New Conservatives on 5% to the detriment of National.
Given all parties other than Labour have trended up in polls since election 2020, it seems 6-8pp of ACT polling have come from Labour voters.
Sounds crazy but I could potentially be one of them come election day. I don't trust NZ National and am afraid of Labour-Greens teaming up with TPM, leaving ACT as the only option (wow!).
What's the alternative? Labour has been cautiously secretive about their co-governance plans, but Greens-TPM are openly committing to a "one nation, two systems" agenda.
Have you forgotten the Greens-TPM's sneaky attempt to entrench co-governance in the 3-waters reform through Labour's Maori caucus?
Act party policies appear to benefit anyone earning over about 15,000 a year? Min wage workers may just miss out on the “rich bugger” 30% tax rate this year but McDonalds workers are getting hit by it because of union agreements that push wages at McDonalds a few cents over minimum wage! Try working an extra shift on a stat day and look at how much of your time and a half extra that you should take home disappears! (It is like half! payslip says it is tax, acc, student loan & kiwi-saver)
I would say it means they don't normalise it, like other pollsters.
In a poll of 1000 people , which most of them are , unless you carefully select who you poll , your going to get outliers. what is less unbelieveable to me is the various polls manage to be so close to each other.
Not just Luxon ,you have to wonder who is running their campaign.
Luxon and Willis go no a tour to visit crime affected businesses in Tawa. The best they can come up with is a man who claims the tip jar was stolen from the restaurant across the street, and a Indian dairy owner who isn't too bothered he had cigarettes stolen awhile ago .
And it would appear Tawa is devoid of Maori and Pacific Islanders, who would have thought?
There is always a difference between what people say in a survey and what they actually do. Most National voters will vote, but the young and poorer left wing voters may not bother. I'd give the right wing a 2% head start at least. So it is very close, probably favouring the right wing at present.
Agreed, polling is useful/informative but there is always going to be a deviation come election day owing to turnout.
I also agree that NACT are probably slightly ahead "in the real world" (particularly if you factor in the turnout adjustment effect).
I've done reasonably well in the past with predicting electoral outcomes based off what I refer to as 'Vibe-o-nomics'™.
In fact, I relieved my former work colleagues of a fairly sizeable chunk of cash by being the only one to pick both Brexit and Trump back in 2016, wholly off ignoring whatever polls said and looking at YouTube like to dislike ratios (it was a big setback when YouTube removed that feature)
Vibe-o-nomics™ discards boring scientific data and instead relies on the most accurate tool of all - gut feeling based on anecdotal observation, particularly of social media commentary, dinner party chit-chat and other far more meaningful measures.
My patented Vibe-o-meter is telling me that normal, everyday people (not Wellington civil servants, academics, or Interest.co.nz commenters) don't particularly like National and aren't warming at all to Luxon, but are even more concerned about rampant crime, race-based policies and a general feeling of socioeconomic malaise under the current government. Noses will be held come October, you heard it here first.
I definitely picked Labour last election ... Vibe-o-nomics doesn't care whatsoever for exact percentages, but even a troglodyte caveman like me could have seen that Labour was going to win that election.
NZ was pretty much the best place to be in the world at that point in time (we didn't have much Covid, life was basically the most normal of almost anywhere in the Western world - and I say this as someone who voted for ACT that election). Jacinda rode to victory in a manner that would have left Julius Caesar at one of his Triumphs blushing. Shame it all turned to custard so quickly ... such is life, right?
My view through 2020 was that National was idiotic to boot out Bridges. Just like a journeyman boxer's job isn't to win the bout, but simply to provide credible opposition to the hot prospect all while avoiding taking too much damage so you live to fight another day, National should have had the clout to figure victory was impossible and simply put up a decent fight but accept a foregone conclusion.
My strong belief in this even cost me some business, when I was turfed out of a solidly 'Two Ticks Blue' business networking group for having the audacity to suggest that victory simply wasn't possible for National in 2020.
I'll admit for 2017 to having picked Winston as kingmaker but I thought he would go with National. So 50% on the mark there.
I would agree with this. The poll results seem disconnected to the "vibe". If you look at Stuff comments, usually a cesspit of extreme leftist comments blowing smoke up the Labour and Green parties' you know what, it has now become an endless moan of "this Govt is useless". And that's with Stuff refusing to even post any commentary that is supportive of policies of the Right. It coincided with St Jacinda doing a runner, and it would appear that once the "Saviour" disappeared people were finally free to admit that the Govt had gone off the reservation.
And many will say they don't want tax cuts etc, but when it comes down to it , standing in the polling booth , with all else been equal, they look after number one. National know this , hence they have tax cuts they know we can't really afford.
I think what most people are saying is that National should be 5-105 ahead , given the economic situation , and the current trouble Labour has had with their ministers.
Like Ngai Tahu Xing. The determined polluter of our water.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/252230/ngai-tahu-appeals-dairying-d…
I am sure all racist parties feel their race is the best to rule over their lands, like the British (Brexit) or Germans. They have already stated that they are genetically superior in sport, joked about murdering David Seymor. If someone started a party to advance the interest of white people there would be an outcry and rightly so. I for one will not support The Maori Supremacist Party or any party that stands by them.
I was a refugee from a country that treated my race as a second class citizen, I do not wish New Zealand to become such a place.
You had better give us your definition of racism if you think TPM aren't. I'll even let you skip over their name straight onto their policies.
Here's a typical one:
https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/maori_sports
Option number 2, the people are getting really desperate for change. If Labour/Greens and TMP get it we are truly stuffed in this country. Still with the woke change to gender neutral toilets why would I be surprised. Still its yet to go the whole way, next it will be illegal for me to take a piss standing up.
"truly stuffed as a country" - no hyperbole there then. NZ economy actually riding out this inflation thing with business reporting to ANZ that confidence leapt 13 points in June, the highest read since November 2021.
"woke" - another bingo card term ticked.
"Illegal for me to piss standing up" - It's like you literally go to jail for being a white man these days don't you? Except you really don't.
What fear and anger towards Maori? Its towards policies that factor in race in determining outcomes, need should be the factor in determining what help someone gets not race. I believe if you have a need then society should do its best to help no matter what race your are. I have not read one comment here that stated Maori's where bad or worse in any way shape or form. The only comments even insinuating that one race would be better than the other an something are in favor of Maori being better.
NZ will benefit hugely from being managed by its indigenous people.
What I have myself stated is I believe the Maori Party (Not that Maoris in general are any more racist than any other race) is a party based on racist values, just like I would state, if we had one, that White Party would be a racist party.
Racism/Tribalism is inherent in human nature https://cpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com/sites.uci.edu/dist/1/863/files/2019/10/Cl… we need to be ever weary of it, just because you Maori doesn't make you more or less prone to it.
The Maori seats were originally supposed to go with the introduction of MMP. There's no justification for having racist election seat selection (there's been no "Maoris" for a 100 years, everyone is a blended ethnicity).
They would of course have the same voter representation as everyone else. And your problem with that is ?
We have a Maori Political Party currently in Parliament, as well as 25 MPs (20%) who identify as Maori, or are of Maori Descent. Further, of the current/recent parties in Govt, four have Maori leaders (Greens, NZF, TPM, ACT).
I feel very well represented without the need for a seperate Electoral system.
TOP surge when?
On a more serious note, if you are in Ilam (which, unfortunately, I am not any more) I would be giving serious thought to getting one Mr Manji across the line - even if you are a well-heeled Fendalton landowner - as at least TOP presence in parliament would presumably give Labour another coalition partner choice?
It's clear they aren't going to get 5%, but maybe the good people of Ilam can be like Obi-Wan Kenobi - our only hope.
Yes but it's split between Ilam and Wigram. South of Riccarton Road is Wigram (or at least it used to be) where at least half of student flats were when I went to Canterbury. That was 15-20 years ago so it's possible that has changed.
Wealthy people still make up the majority of Ilam I believe which is why I am concerned TOP's tax policy will not fare well there. Hopefully Raf knows better than me though and he can still win.
100% agreed, terrible choice of an electorate to run in.
Apart from the aberration that was 2020, Ilam is as blue as a summer's sky.
The rich Fendaltonians will not go for TOP, as they will be punished by the proposed land tax. The student vote will either not show up due to being piss crook or will go to the Greens. Where Raf could do ok is by courting the 'middle class' areas around Burnside etc but realistically that would require cooking up a deal with Labour.
Mowree party 7%?? Yeah Right! I guess this poll is what you would call a 'rogue' poll. And the trans-nana beating party the greens?? I doubt it.
It's gunna be well Hung—all the way to another election. Someone may be able to cobble together a minority government temporarily and then it'll all fall apart within 6 months.
The reported 'margin of error' for polls is actually really quite a sophisticated measure that most people (including myself, until recently) don't really understand at all.
The margin of error is really: "For a poll that reports support of a particular party at 50%, the margin of error of +/- 3% means that 95% of the time the true support for that party is somewhere in the range of 47% to 53%".
2 particular points to note there:
1. The margin of error is actually relative to the indicated result and the quoted margin of error is for a result of 50%, even when no party in the poll is at 50%. The margin grows the further away you get from the 50% marker, so for example a poll that registers a party at 30% with a central margin of error of 3%, the margin for that particular party actually might be more like +/- 4%. This means that for very small parties (anyone <10%), the margin of error may actually be as large as 5-6%.
2. The 95% confidence interval is applied with the big assumption that the poll was entirely statistically fair in its sample selection. This is extremely difficult to achieve in practice as you need to have demographic weightings, geographic weightings, and that's before you even take into account likeliness of voting (I think NZ polling companies by and large simply don't factor likeliness of voting in to their models at all).
Lanthanide: thanks for the good "error" info
From that I assume that the headline result of 7% for TPM really means. +/- 5%.
So TPM could be 2% or 12% or anywhere in between. From this poll result, correctly interpreted.
Yes. My assumption is an assumption. Interested to hear if it's anywhere near right.
That's basically why I'm voting TOP.
If TOP can get in with 2-3 seats they may be the kingmaker of who governs. I would rather have ACT + National + TOP than ACT + National, and I'd rather have Greens + Labour + TPM & TOP than Greens + Labour + TPM.
If they don't get in then my vote is 'wasted' and therefore proportionately split amongst the other parties anyway.
I encourage you to waste your vote on TOP. One more vote down the drain that would otherwise have made an actual difference by going to the Greens or Labour. TOP leader recently admitted as much by stating that the current 5% threshold undermines the principle that every vote counts.
I'm not prepared to give my vote to the established players any longer. NZ is in the mess it is in because of National and Labour and I do not see that changing regardless of which one is in power.
Therefore I intend to vote for TOP who I believe may at least disrupt and start to change some of the old ways of thinking even if they sit on the cross benches. I am prepared to vote for them even if they may not win a seat given that a vote for the established left or right block is also a wasted vote in my view.
Raf has a reasonable chance of winning Ilam, hence why they could get 2-3 seats in Parliament by having them coat-tail on him.
Also my single vote will make 0 difference if I voted for Labour or Greens. How could it?
Even without that I'd probably still vote for them because they best represent my policy positions and world outlook, and electoral advertising funding in 2026 is strongly influenced by 2023 vote share.
To sit on the cross benches, as it stands, would mean having to give one of the major coalitions confidence and supply agreement.
It could get very interesting.
If labour propose looking at some kind of capital gains tax, and national unlikely to look at any ubi, I would have thought labour would be a more likely fit for TOP. It's hard to see what National could offer them, and retain Act 's support.
If we want New Zealand to succeed, we need to shift focus from "popularity party" votes to "most skilled for the job" votes.
It will never happen, but imagine a New Zealand for a moment where the finance minister and all ministerial position is voted for based on skills, as opposed to who is popular etc etc..
Sigh, that sounds like a lot on how we vote for council members.
Costing, shmosting ... who cares outside of political tragics?
Doesn't matter what country, which party, which side of the political spectrum you're on ... policies always wind up coming in over budget, over time, or otherwise disappointing when measured against what was supposed to happen.
I couldn't care less whether a party has costed its policies or not, as I don't believe for a nanosecond that any party (even the ones I want to see succeed) is capable of actually achieving policy objectives within the claimed costs.
Look at Labour with Te Pukenga, or 3 Waters. Look at the Tories in the UK with Brexit. Whether a policy is "fully costed" or not has no bearing on whether it will be implemented, because it won't be implemented the way the average pleb like you or I thinks.
What matters is the general direction of policy and vision a party/coalition wants to point a country towards. Everything else is noise.
I'm in Upper Harbour, last election I voted NZ First nationally and Labour locally (Vanushi). I'm officially calling Upper Harbour for Cameron Brewer, the National candidate.
I received a letter in the post for Cameron the National candidate, which is not out of the ordinary lots of people received similar letters for their National party candidate. Then I was watching a U-tube video on oil bears (as you do) when who should appear but Mr Brewer leaning against the railing at Hobsonville marina saying Hi I'm Cameron Brewer I'm the National Party candidate for Upper Harbour and I hope you're enjoying your U-tube video. Five seconds in total but I think that is pretty slick.
In advertising lore it takes three adds to get someone's attention but he's only taken two to lock in my local vote.
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