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Michael Gordon

GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
17th Mar 24, 6:01am
59
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
[updated]
There are clear signs that the RBNZ’s 'heavy handed hikes' are inhibiting household demand, and hurting business, Kiwibank economists say
12th Feb 24, 12:22pm
36
There are clear signs that the RBNZ’s 'heavy handed hikes' are inhibiting household demand, and hurting business, Kiwibank economists say
Stronger employment data could spook the Reserve Bank into raising the Official Cash Rate above 5.50%, economists say
7th Feb 24, 2:04pm
58
Stronger employment data could spook the Reserve Bank into raising the Official Cash Rate above 5.50%, economists say
Kiwibank economists say all three key drivers of the housing market point to a stronger market and house price gains; Westpac economists say housing market one of the key things they will be watching
19th Jun 23, 1:53pm
157
Kiwibank economists say all three key drivers of the housing market point to a stronger market and house price gains; Westpac economists say housing market one of the key things they will be watching
Wellington records largest fall in jobs advertised, as Gisborne bucks the national trend, Seek employment report shows
19th Jun 23, 5:00am
28
Wellington records largest fall in jobs advertised, as Gisborne bucks the national trend, Seek employment report shows
A high rate of migration has offset a steeper decline in New Zealand’s GDP per capita
16th Jun 23, 6:39am
50
A high rate of migration has offset a steeper decline in New Zealand’s GDP per capita
What recession? New Zealand is still adding jobs, Statistics NZ's March employment indicator shows
28th Apr 23, 1:29pm
36
What recession? New Zealand is still adding jobs, Statistics NZ's March employment indicator shows
The Reserve Bank of NZ will likely lift the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points on Wednesday and give little else away
2nd Apr 23, 6:00am
102
The Reserve Bank of NZ will likely lift the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points on Wednesday and give little else away
Employers complain about too much demand and not enough workers as employment indicators stay steady
30th Mar 23, 2:36pm
27
Employers complain about too much demand and not enough workers as employment indicators stay steady
Bank economists are now suggesting the Reserve Bank should dial back its intentions on how far and high the Official Cash Rate will go
25th Jan 23, 4:12pm
55
Bank economists are now suggesting the Reserve Bank should dial back its intentions on how far and high the Official Cash Rate will go
[updated]
REINZ says December's sales plummeted nationally to the lowest in years at 4,336; national median price slipped over 12% for the year. In Auckland the fall was 18%. In Wellington 20%. House prices now down around 15% from November 2021 peak
18th Jan 23, 9:00am
251
REINZ says December's sales plummeted nationally to the lowest in years at 4,336; national median price slipped over 12% for the year. In Auckland the fall was 18%. In Wellington 20%. House prices now down around 15% from November 2021 peak
[updated]
Statistics New Zealand reports that the country's deficit between what we received for exports and what we spent on imports was a record $29.7 billion in the year to September
14th Dec 22, 11:07am
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Statistics New Zealand reports that the country's deficit between what we received for exports and what we spent on imports was a record $29.7 billion in the year to September
Westpac NZ's Michael Gordon expecting OCR cuts from early 2024 given RBNZ forecast for GFC-style downturn
24th Nov 22, 9:27am
100
Westpac NZ's Michael Gordon expecting OCR cuts from early 2024 given RBNZ forecast for GFC-style downturn
Reserve Bank has raised the Official Cash Rate to 3.5% - but gave serious consideration to a bigger hike
5th Oct 22, 2:03pm
122
Reserve Bank has raised the Official Cash Rate to 3.5% - but gave serious consideration to a bigger hike
BNZ economists say a very wide range of forecasts for the outcome of GDP figures this week likely reflects the 'noise' in the component parts
12th Sep 22, 3:10pm
6
BNZ economists say a very wide range of forecasts for the outcome of GDP figures this week likely reflects the 'noise' in the component parts
Figures to be released in the coming week will likely show the country stayed well clear of recession in the June quarter - but the outlook for the economy is looking, as the Reserve Bank has indicated, pretty anaemic
11th Sep 22, 6:00am
81
Figures to be released in the coming week will likely show the country stayed well clear of recession in the June quarter - but the outlook for the economy is looking, as the Reserve Bank has indicated, pretty anaemic
With financial markets increasingly expecting interest rates might ease next year, the Reserve Bank may well deliver a strongly 'hawkish' message next week to the effect that now is not the time to ease up on inflation
14th Aug 22, 8:02am
96
With financial markets increasingly expecting interest rates might ease next year, the Reserve Bank may well deliver a strongly 'hawkish' message next week to the effect that now is not the time to ease up on inflation
Westpac economists think NZ is finding where the unemployment floor lies, with no net growth in Job numbers and all of the heat in labour market coming through in pay rates
8th Aug 22, 12:00pm
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Westpac economists think NZ is finding where the unemployment floor lies, with no net growth in Job numbers and all of the heat in labour market coming through in pay rates
Latest labour market data showing 'severe capacity constraints and intensifying wage pressures' prompt change of view and perceived need for the Reserve Bank to do a little more against inflation
4th Aug 22, 9:46am
30
Latest labour market data showing 'severe capacity constraints and intensifying wage pressures' prompt change of view and perceived need for the Reserve Bank to do a little more against inflation
Statistics New Zealand says the unemployment rate has risen to 3.3% from 3.2%, while private sector hourly wages have risen 7%
3rd Aug 22, 11:10am
108
Statistics New Zealand says the unemployment rate has risen to 3.3% from 3.2%, while private sector hourly wages have risen 7%
David Hargreaves assesses the possibilities and prospects ahead of the release of labour market data next week that will likely show the country's unemployment rate hitting a new low and the biggest rates of pay rises in well over a decade
31st Jul 22, 6:00am
87
David Hargreaves assesses the possibilities and prospects ahead of the release of labour market data next week that will likely show the country's unemployment rate hitting a new low and the biggest rates of pay rises in well over a decade
A third consecutive 50 point rise taking the Official Cash Rate to 2.5% is universally expected. The focus will be on any clues the Reserve Bank gives on what it might do next
8th Jul 22, 12:59pm
96
A third consecutive 50 point rise taking the Official Cash Rate to 2.5% is universally expected. The focus will be on any clues the Reserve Bank gives on what it might do next
Westpac McDermott Miller Confidence survey at lowest level ever as pessimism bites in NZ
21st Jun 22, 9:00am
66
Westpac McDermott Miller Confidence survey at lowest level ever as pessimism bites in NZ
This week's release of March quarter GDP figures is likely to reflect the impact of the surge of Omicron - but the immediate prospects are for a future slowdown in any case
13th Jun 22, 10:16am
15
This week's release of March quarter GDP figures is likely to reflect the impact of the surge of Omicron - but the immediate prospects are for a future slowdown in any case
RBNZ needs 'to inflict some damage on the labour market' in order to cool inflation, bank economists say
26th May 22, 10:03am
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RBNZ needs 'to inflict some damage on the labour market' in order to cool inflation, bank economists say