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Number of new community cases of Covid-19 rises to 45, as those infected are part of large households living in emergency and transitional housing

Number of new community cases of Covid-19 rises to 45, as those infected are part of large households living in emergency and transitional housing
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There are 45 new community cases of Covid-19 to report on Wednesday. 

Of these cases, 33 are household or close contacts. Of the 26 household contacts, 12 come from two households. 

The remaining 12 cases are unlinked. At this stage, six of these look likely to be linked.

Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield said a number of cases over the past week have been in large households. He said a high proportion of cases have been living in transitional or emergency housing.

For this reason, he expected the uptick in case numbers. 

While today's cases don't have gang affiliations, Bloomfield said cases announced two or three weeks ago included a group of households with gang affiliations.

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins described the increase is case numbers as sobering. However, he said the Government considered the nature and characteristics of cases, rather than just the number, when assessing alert levels.

The Ministry of Health said: "Now that Auckland is at Alert Level 3, some of these people may have been working in essential or permitted businesses during their infectious periods.

"This emphasises the importance of everyone in Auckland continuing to abide by Alert Level 3 measures - including mask wearing and staying in your bubble."

Here is the latest from the Ministry of Health: 

Cases  
Number of new community cases 45
Number of new cases identified at the border No cases
Location of new community cases Auckland
Location of community cases (total) Auckland (including 4 cases in Upper Hauraki; all of whom are in the same household) 1,213 (969 of whom have recovered); Wellington 17 (all of whom have recovered)
Number of community cases (total) 1,230 (in the current community outbreak)
Cases infectious in the community Four (50%) of yesterday’s cases have exposure events
Cases in isolation throughout the period they were infectious Four (50 %) of yesterday’s cases
Cases epidemiologically linked 33 of today’s 45 cases are linked. Of these 26 are household contacts.
Cases to be epidemiologically linked Twelve of today’s 45 cases. Investigations are continuing to determine a link.
Cases epidemiologically linked (total) 1,193 (in the current cluster) (15 unlinked from the past fortnight).
Number of sub-clusters 15 epidemiologically linked subclusters. Of these, three are active, eight are contained and four are dormant. There are 10 epidemiologically unlinked subclusters. Of these, none are active, three are contained and seven are dormant.
Cases in hospital 16 (total): North Shore (2) Middlemore (7); Auckland (7)
Cases in ICU or HDU Three
Confirmed cases (total)* 3,892 since pandemic began.
Historical cases, since 1 Jan 2021 (total) 159 out of 2,074 since 1 Jan 2021
Contacts  
Number of open contacts being managed (total): 951
Percentage who have received an outbound call from contact tracers (to confirm testing and isolation requirements) 92%
Percentage with at least one test result 91%
Locations of interest  
Locations of interest (total) 91 (as at 10am 28 September)
Tests  
Number of tests (total) 3,361,927
Number of tests processed (total last 24 hours) 15,437
Tests processed in Auckland (last 24 hours) 8,537
Tests rolling average (last 7 days) 13,438
Testing centres in Auckland 21
Wastewater  
Wastewater detections There are no new unexpected wastewater detections. We are awaiting further results following the positive detection in Tauranga reported yesterday.
COVID-19 vaccine update  
Vaccines administered to date (total) 5,132,627; 1st doses: 3,266,796; 2nd doses: 1,865,831
Vaccines administered yesterday (total) 44,649 1st doses: 13,519; 2nd doses: 31,130
Mâori 1st doses: 314,427; 2nd doses: 163,804
Pacific Peoples 1st doses: 203,198; 2nd doses: 114,733
Vaccines administered to Auckland residents to date (total) 1,868,161; 1st doses: 1,185,737 (83%); 2nd doses: 682,424 (48%)
Vaccines administered to Auckland residents yesterday (total) 14,376; 1st doses: 3,884; 2nd doses: 10,492
NZ COVID-19 tracer  
Registered users (total) 3,259,983
Poster scans (total) 392,744,620
Manual diary entries (total) 17,213,554
Poster scans in 24 hours to midday yesterday 2,358,889

*There are four new recoveries to report and a case from yesterday has now been reclassified as under investigation. Therefore the total case count has increased by 44 today.

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213 Comments

No level 2 now! Govt will probably announce that level 3 stays until 90 percent vaccinated level reached. And if that's till Xmas that's what it will be.

I wonder if 90 percent will ever be reached? 

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5

The 90% is to open up isn't it? Do we need 90% just to go to level 2?

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0

Good question I've zero idea. But at level 2 covid will spread Round nz as people head out at first instance. 

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4

Get that vaccination card going! If we are going to end lockdown once we are 90% double vaxed, why not end it already for those that are?

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2

Being vaccinated you can still catch it. You can still pass it on. So why should you be let out of your cage? 

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20

You mean other than the fact that he shouldnt be punished for some choosing not to vax?

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4

Having to stay in your cage is basically another way of saying, you were wrong if you believed that being vaccinated will avoid you getting the virus, getting sick from it or passing it on to others! What part of those three points did you struggle to understand?

[Edit] This has nothing to do with people choosing not to get vaccinated. This is its own stand alone issue that nobody wants to recognise. The 'vaccine' is not what you all thought it would be.

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15

I agree that the issue of covid transmission and/or getting covid while being fully vaccinated is not well understood by the general public.   But, it is also important to note that the likelihood of a fully vaccinated individual getting sick or dying is much lower than for the unvaccinated.  As for the transmission rates, studies are still underway but the initial data shows the transmission rate for the vaccinated is likely to be far lower than for the unvaccinated.   So while not perfect, vaccinations are still our best option for getting back to normalcy. 

You can find more data on effectivity and transmission rates here:https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-no…

 

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Amazing that "staying in a cage" gets so many upvotes, scary actually

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12

The way house prices are going it will soon be literally true. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/25/asia/hong-kong-social-distancing-cor… 

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0

We can't read too much into today's tally of 45 new cases. Let's not panic.

The essential message remains the same:

VACCINATE, wear a mask, keep 2 metres apart.

TTP

P.S. Brian Tamaki [Destiny Gang Leader] - thanks for nothing.

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9

No, but we got to 20 cases a long time ago and haven't really gone down since. 

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1

Vaccination yes, 2 metre gap yes. Masks however don't do much at all. And Destiny church in not a gang. 

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6

Ponzikiwi said “Masks however don't do much at all”.

So you think surgical theatre staff who wear masks while they work are just a bunch of plonkers who really have no understanding, you seriously think that?

Just wondering.

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11

Dr Chris Smith Virologist from Cambridge University said surgical masks were useless. Dr Bloomfield actually quoted him.

Surgical Masks are not designed for viral protection in surgery. You will notice Hospital staff wearing shield masks or N95 at the moment. Plus he said viruses can get into your eyes. 

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15

They're using higher quality masks though

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2

Yes that's correct. The surgical ones in hospital are higher quality. 

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3

Surgical masks are designed to prevent bodily fluids such as blood and pus from entering through the nose and mouth.  They are not designed to prevent tiny airborne virus particles from being breathed in.  Virus particles are far smaller than the mask material pores and pass through easily, just like air does (in case you wondered how you can still breathe through a mask).

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6

and to prevent bacteria transfer to the patient

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0

A mask made from chicken wire would offer as much protection as a paper or material mask does. 

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The mask is primarily to stop the surgeon from infecting a patient. Scenario: surgeon sneezes expelling commensal organisms from nasopharyngeal tract into an open wound. These are primarily bacterial (much, much bigger than viruses). Cloth masks are near useless at protecting a non-carrier from an airborne viruses. 

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No Destiny Church is arguably worse than most Gangs. 

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14

Religion is the opiate of the masses

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The virus is transported on airborne droplets, and in terms of quantity size will matter. Put a mask of almost any sort on, cough into your TV screen. Remove mask. Cough. Compare.

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4

Most younger people don't care about face nappies or social distancing.  They are over the lockdowns, being cooped up in third world rentals and the good weather is about to arrive.

Buckle up for New Zealand's first proper wave.

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36

In 5 days time the government is to tell us what happens next. What they cannot think to tell us is that level 3/4 has eliminated Delta and that another week of it is going to be any more effective, given by then Auckland will have suffered seven weeks worth already, and by the natural human instinct of right to  freedom, if they are not let out they will break out.  Nor will they be able to claim vaccination progress is sufficient, they know full well the levels are dropping off markedly day by day. Continually painting yourself into a corner and hoping the paint will dry ain’t worth a damn.

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An announcement about an announcement.

Sounds about right.

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9

Open the borders and let those fully vaccinated travel.  I am over these North Korea like travel restrictions.  We want to see our family who we have not been able to see for 18 months.  Be kind is only be kind when it suits Jacinda.  

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16

sorry   but control was lost over two weeks ago when it first hit the gangs just as the numbers were getting to single digits --  since then the messaging has gone from   

Elimination has always been the best strategy  to 

Elimination is definately possible 

Elimination is still our goal 

Elimination does not mean zero cases

Elimination is abut having control and being able to stamp out outbreaks quickly

but -  i agree no need to panic --  1250 cases  i death a 91 yr old who was so unwell to start with that she could not be treated or ventilated  - given the that the demographics of this outbreak are massively weighted to Pacifica and Maori -- and that in general their survival indicators - obesity, cardiac issues, diabietis lung capacity - are far poorer than the general population - - we should have expected way way more deaths -  

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14

90% of those eligible will not be reached. We will be very lucky to get to 80%. Its time to toss the dice and open up.

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Carlos

According to data above 78% received one dose and further 2% booked. 

So yeah, I'm feeling we are likely very lucky by your criterion.  

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4

And that was with $50,000 prize drops and millions spent on "influencers". What is the next level for encouragement; a you-all-get-cars-prize.

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1

Toss the dice and open up?

And what happens when that toss comes up "snake-eyes"?

 

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0

If Delta has a thick head, large body and a long tail, how is a 14 days isolation/quarantine enough ?
Also, why wait till all the household contacts of the infected people come out with positive test ?
Why not ask them to quarantine straight away ? Increasing Quarantine, ICU facilities seems to be a priority. Is that being attended to ?

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1

They won’t drop Auckland to level 2 next week, not this school holiday. If they do people will rush out of Auckland and that’s way too risky in their book.

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So bad, it's funny. Thanks Mongrel Mob.

Look forward to seeing Hendy, Baker et al ramping up the fear today.

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26

Mongrel Mob club are passionate about the health of Aoteroa. 

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It is not a club you can join, ignore and drop out of at any time (no repercussions). Also the drug trade & prospect crime & violence very heavily leads them to being gangs, not clubs. But it sure is more dangerous to have our govt using high trust models and covid spreading amongst those who readily ignore the most serious laws with large penalties. Because what can the govt actually do to get large GANGS already committing crimes to obey lockdown requirements while committing criminal actions... Ask them to please not trade in drugs and stolen goods that are non essential.

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Wrong Pacifica they are a club not a gang. 

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Saying it does not change the reality and criminal record.

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They do offer supply & discounts on meth and meth precursors which at one point may have been health related. Plus the illegal gun trade does effect the nations health on a very real and painful level.

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Brutus

In response to a query regarding gangs, Bloomfied said that there had been good support from gang leadership and the situation amongst “the gangs” was under control. 
Apparently the current peak has more to do with those involved in social housing due to both the over crowding and movement (and interaction) of those in this situation. (OK, so yes there will be some gang connections among this group.)

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Of course Bloomfield will say they are getting good support from the gangs. 

He does want to live you know.

Plus, it's spin.

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Printer8

They are clubs not gangs. 

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Except by their own definition they are gangs with gang warfare deaths and very real victims from assault, drug trade and organized crime. You really need to lookup the definition of club and see what requirements are for mongrel mob membership (don't forget to look at their subclauses and code of conduct policies... oh wait you will be doomed). This is from inside and outside the looking glass. Trust me you never want to be in these gangs because the cost and moral harm on your mana will cut deep.

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Pacifica 

They are a club, just like hells angels motorcycle club and head hunters motorcycle club. Its not a gang its a club. 

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Saying it does not change the reality of them being gangs and the vast criminal records attached to gang organized crime.

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0

Looks like we won't get elimination in Auckland, even excluding this result it doesn't feel like numbers have gone down for a while. So where to from here? Level 2+ in Auckland and borders still closed? Do we have the vaccination numbers yet for Level 2?

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We need to live with Covid. It’s going to get you whether or not you are vaccinated at some stage. The best time to let it slowly spread is summer when we have hot weather and no winter illnesses. If we keep locking us down till winter, there is no hope of opening up then. Get Auckland to 2.5 at the very least. 

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18

Back to Level 4 next week?

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I doubt that will happen, elimination strategy will be abandoned if it doesn't work soon.

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11

we have eliminated it

eliminate now means you cant see it

 

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Eye masks are just about to be made mandatory in all spaces.

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We abandoned the elimination strategy when Auckland went to Level 3 - or you did you miss that point?

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Get ready for the magic of compound case numbers. 

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I think its time to let it go.

Shouldn't be imprisoning 5 million people perpetually.

Unless we want to make Uighurs re-education camps look mild...

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17

It is time to give the NZ public 6 weeks to be fully vaccinated starting from today, start introducing vaccine passports to control access to public transportation, airlines, bars, restaurants, cinemas, theaters, public libraries , gyms etc. (with due exception for whoever, for approved medical reasons, cannot get vaccinated) and then to fully reopen the country.

If somebody can get vaccinated but does not want to get vaccinated, this should be their freedom of choice, but they should be given no access to public healthcare for any Covid-related conditions.

The country cannot be held indefinitely at ransom by a minority of selfish/ignorant idiots.

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16

Time to stick pointy hats upon their heads and badges on their clothing.

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10

Star bellied sneetches. 

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1

I think the vaccination card is a good idea.

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So long as there is an expiry date on them. Really though they are meaningless.  They don't guarantee you don't have covid, nor that you can't transmit covid, and efficacy does wane over time. Anyone who 'went hard & went early' to get vaccinated in Feb will be likely to have efficacy of the vaccine somewhat reduced now and by Christmas without the booster????  

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The country cannot be held indefinitely at ransom by a minority of selfish/ignorant idiots.

Is that the govt you are referring to?

Because if a "papers please" society is freedom then we are in trouble. 

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Its preferable to lockdown though isn't it? Why lock down people who are double vaxed and of low risk? 

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Because if a "papers please" society is freedom then we are in trouble.

Do you also object to:  Showing a passport to enter the country?  How about an ID at the bar or liquor store?  Drivers license to rent a car?  

 

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0

I've seen Schindler's List. That's where you want to go? 

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17

Rosenstein , a comment made not to reflect my personal viewpoint, but in reflection of the increasingly hypocritical, absurd and disturbing  comments made by a number of the "team"

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0

"If somebody can get vaccinated but does not want to get vaccinated, this should be their freedom of choice, but they should be given no access to public healthcare for any Covid-related conditions."

YES! YES YES ... lets throw away our brains completely

And if someone chooses to drive they should be denied public healthcare for any Accident related conditions

And if someone chooses to smoke they should be denied public healthcare for any smoke related conditions

And if someone chooses to sport they should be denied public healthcare for any sport related conditions

And if someone chooses to drink they should be denied public healthcare for any drink related conditions

And if someone chooses to say up late they should be denied public healthcare for any stay up late related conditions

And (most of all) if someone chooses to GROW OLD they should be denied public healthcare for any AGE related conditions

we are just gettting started on the utopia

AND we are going to save a fortune!

 

 

 

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15

I agree. Settle down, people. You are far more at risk of dying every day going about your everyday lives (well, you used to be), than you ever were of dying of coronavirus.

We need to get used to the fact that:

a) Loads of people will choose not to get vaccinated. I'm not going to until I get a choice, or until a date is set for completely opening up. When that happens I will get it (hopefully by then I will have a choice). Giving myself one month lead time, I will get maximum protection leading into the opening up period. I will then catch coronavirus and will get natural immunity in addition to whatever the vaccine provides. I would be happy to catch it without the vaccine also. All those vaccinated now will have their immunity waning at the time the coronavirus hits. 

b) Loads of people are going to die. We need to accept that, directly as a result of our poor health system, and the fact we are the third fattest and unhealthy nation on earth. If you are not one of these people, nothing is likely to happen to you. If you are one of these people then that was your choice and choices have consequences. This is the shaming that people try to place on unvaccinated people. However, these people will remain mostly untouched and it is the unhealthy ones that will get knocked off instead.

This is what is going to happen, and so people need to get used to it. Pontificating about restricting the un-vaccinated peoples' access to health care and all sorts of other crazy stupid ideas like wearing masks forever isn't going to change a thing. All it is going to mean is that more small businesses will go broke, more people will kill themselves and the same number of people will die of coronavirus regardless.

To take an example from world war two. Our young men flew bombers over Europe, and they knew, every day they flew, that there was a good 80% chance sometimes they would die that day. They happily did it, and many died. Now, there is almost no chance of dying of the corona virus and everyone is terrified and finger-pointing. In comparison, today, we are pathetic and weak.

It's coming, ready or not. 

 

 

 

 

 

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I don’t think bomber crews were happy with the risk. There were strict penalties for not following mission orders. 
They wore flak jackets to reduce but not eliminate their risk of scrapnel but the jackets would have to be removed to put a parachute on to bail out if required. 
So use the vaccine as your flak jacket but be aware you still might get shot down. The unvaccinated might bail out faster? Not sure if the comparison works. 

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Point is, it had to be done, there was not a choice and the result was pretty obvious. Some people were not coming back. They got on with it.

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Smart people have figured out that there is no point getting vaccinated until there is a real risk of catching Covid.  You only get 6 months protection from the vaccine, so why would you take it now and start the clock ticking on that six months, when that immunity is just being wasted?  You want peak protection for when you are most at risk, not for it to have worn off by then. So the longer Jacinda refuses to open up, the longer its sensible to  remain unvaccinated.   Once its ripping through the population all those vaccinated early will have lost immunity and be exposed, or be forced into taking a third or fourth shot.  

On another note, hopefully Novavax will be here before then as well.  Then all the late comers will get the benefit of the better vaccine as well.

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Kind of agree. But longer gaps between doses is now well enough  proven to give better immunity than short. So I'm  at 6.5 weeks from first dose and second booked 1.5 weeks from now, but may push that out another week or two... that should last plenty long now. While Novovax looks good, why we can't spend a few hundred million on a Pfizer booster round now, which if not needed we can donate to Eritrea or someplace I don't quite get.

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Dave. I’m at exactly the same point between shots and, like you, have seen reports of the possibility that extending the gap is beneficial. Am booked for 8 week gap but intend extend that to 10 to 12. Some reading says 12 to 13 and even 16 weeks! Don’t think that the authorities would endorse this though as it will hinder getting the numbers up.

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Vaccination cards may be misused , it would be preferable if the vaccinated could have their arms tattooed or be microchipped with booster schedule. 

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7

Considering the govt still will not allow the most vulnerable access to be vaccinated and they should have been completed by July then NZ is already a lost cause. If you want to live a decent standard of living then leave NZ. If covid does not get you then the housing crisis/market will.

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0

That comment about the Uighur camps is incredibly ignorant

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5

I think the word you are looking for is Uighurnorant.

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7

Bad, bad taste. Now go outside and don't come in until you taste like honey glazed colbert.

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0

Auckland, NZ’s heart & shoulders, is in its seventh week of stringent lockdown. How much longer do the good people of Auckland need to suffer the mental and economic anguish caused primarily by this government’s failure to commence protection by vaccination either early or substantially enough. The government, finally, belatedly woke up and is now urging vaccination as the great salvation, only they are six months too late at least.  There it is. The cost to our nation of their negligence has now carried beyond the original threat of covid itself. People in Auckland are locked in, isolated and suffering, full damn stop. Enough is now more than enough.

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If we don't come out of level 3 next week I will start flaunting some of the rules, that's for sure. But in a low risk manner eg. I will drive to a nice park or beach beyond my neighbourhood and go for walks. There's not many nice walks or nice beaches in my neighborhood, and I am over being cooped up (beyond occasional breaking of to go to the supermarket, haha).

There, I have said it. Screw you, Jacinda.

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Of the 26 household contacts, twelve come from two households, with six in each

Sounds like the housing shitshow is biting us in the ass.

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This is inequality and overcrowding coming home to roost. Wheres my broom and lift the corner of that rug.

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So how are people with 4 kids supposed to live?

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*So how are people with 4 kids supposed to live in NZ? (there fixed that for you)

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they will struggle to get much above 80 % vaccination, time to bite the bullet and once the double job hits 80 open up

there will be people die but  we have to live our lives and not be held to ransom by those that dont want it

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By open up do you mean open the borders or Auckland go to Level 2?  I couldn't personally give a crap about the borders, but I am getting pretty sick of lockdown considering I am double vaccinated and of low risk. 

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4

open up the whole country, double vax to board the plane , test before you leave and antigen test on landing, if you have covid off to MIQ you go if not go home and do a day three and day 7 test then all go

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I don't see much difference between opening Auckland to the rest of New Zealand and opening international borders in practical terms. Once you have community outbreaks you will end up hitting hospital capacity. Then we'll need to do the lockdown and reopening cycle a few times.

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I suspect they won't open Auckland to the rest of the country for a long time. But that doesn't mean Auckland can't go to Level 2. 

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3

It's literally the whole point of Level 2 but sure. Unless the rest of the country just gets to experience things in a different way that then get sealed off for Auckland, much in the same way Aucklanders are expected to pay a regional fuel tax for transport infrastructure but no other region will ever get one. 

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0

Plenty of double vaxed now living in a false sense of security. If your way overweight, have zero cardio fitness, have high blood pressure and are taking any pills other than Vitamins then your stuffed. 

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3

Totally false.

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9

Watch this go bad to worse...have we even seen the impacts of level 3 non compliance.

Will the high numbers scare more people to get vaccinated though... 🤔

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5

Ask any police officer and they will say when you move off level 3 a lot of people just treat it as level 1. Same with level 2. She made a political decision to move off level 4 knowing it was risky. But keeping her voters happy is always at the forefront. Back to level 4 is on the cards for Auckland as there are too many rule breakers and from all sectors of society including professionals.

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5

Any strategy that requires 100% compliance from the public is by definition futile. Going back to L4 would just be flogging a dead horse. 

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5

How many have died ? vrs annual influenza.

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Only a few thousand people have had Covid in NZ due to the measures in place, so no point comparing it to annual influenza.

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10

Following the 2010 influenza outbreak, a report underlining the fragilities of the health care system was sent to the Minister  of Health. The current nor prior government failed to plan for any future outbreaks. 

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Yes there is because we now need a baseline going forward. The stats from here on out also need to be accurate with not only age but also any underlying  health issues that were present. 

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At present, it is thought the death rate of COVID 19 to be substantially higher (possibly 10 times or more) than that of most strains of the flu. (Source: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavi…)

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Turns out we aren't any more exceptional than Sydney or Melbourne.

Who knew?

 

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19

In one corner staid, insular and obdurate is New Zealand. In the other, fast, unpredictable and undefeated is Mr Delta. Said at the beginning of all of this that NZ vs Delta, fight to the death, would demonstrate if NZ  could manage to do what no other nation has achieved. Final round or two coming up , folks, best keep the towel handy though.

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Because 45 daily cases is the same as 1,000 daily cases in NSW? 

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Ok so how many is to many ? At  what point are you just going to admit we lost the battle ? The Australians lost control weeks ago now and finally had to admit it. Unless Auckland goes back into what I would call a level 5 lockdown right now we are going to have hundreds of cases within weeks.

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That is, the almost forgotten point. This entire  lockdown, nationwide at that,  was caused by one individual entering from Australia, travelling to the Coromandel and back and Delta was out and about and has been ever since nigh on two months. So if it took just one then then any of the “live” cases being discovered each day, let alone those that aren’t, can very easily replicate exactly the same circumstances, nationwide. Just takes one, doesn’t it, and that’s the problem, and NZ is now getting many more than just one a day.

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Pretty major difference in vaccination rates between now and then, and also L2 takes out most of your super spreader events.

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True enough. And fair enough, one on their own will not present quite the same danger as last time. There will be now  though , more than that number, in terms of potential carriers. Yes indeed, those super spreader event(s) last time. That it carried no further than Wellington, South Island completely missed, was a huge bonus.

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Not to mention Helen Clarkes mate with delta she flew in from Fiji. 

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Yes.  Give or take a few weeks.

Be quick.

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0

Auckland was beaten by South Australia,  Queensland, Taiwan,  Hong Kong, the rest of NZ etc, which have managed to eliminate Delta. Seems they are putting all efforts into vaccination rather than elimination,  but it is going to likely mean Auckland could be in level 3 for months. When they could have done more to eliminate it in level 4 and really ring fence it. They didn't go hard and early enough this time.

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Transitional and emergency housing.  Lets be honest, there are some people where trouble of one sort just keeps happening. 

 

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3

Mr Orr will need to re-write his speech so the OCR can stand as it is or be cut.

Santa has come early for him once again, and for home owners.

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Well I have been consistently saying an OCR hike is NOT a done deal. No matter what the bank economist idiots say.

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4

I think this rate rise gets done. Inflation is too high and has remained so.

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I would say it's more likely than not, but I think it's a relatively close call. 

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We still have a few days to go - plenty more cases to be discovered over this time.

Nothing is certain. The only certain thing is uncertainty.

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Well those bank economist idiots seem to treat everything as certain.

They are so dumb they don't even usually apply caveats to their opinions.

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If we have a few more days at these types of numbers we will stay at level 3. And then there is a good chance the OCR will be unchanged. I think it's highly unlikely it will be cut.

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I think that we need to stand back and see that Covid has nothing to do with the OCR from this point onwards, it needs to go up regardless of what Covid is doing because house prices don't care what Covid is doing and neither does inflation.

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Who is 'we'?

I agree, and many people would, but that does not mean the RBNZ does. And they are all that matter in terms of the decision.

And remember their mandate extends much further than the CPI.

 

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When i first read your comment i thought is said Satan...that might be more appropriate in this case!

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I was very concerned to hear that a cases may have jumped out of the control zone in Auckland and into Tauranga. If geographically controlled until the vaccination campaign is advanced we have more medical resources to deploy on hotspots. Also Tauranga tends to have a much older median age population than Auckland meaning fatalities will be far higher if any significant level of community infection is reached.

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Vaccination rates for over-65s are incredibly high, as they've already been eligible for months. Other than that, just lock down the rest homes.

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you think -  Tauranga's predominately older white affluent retirement population are mostly already double vaccinated and unlikely to be impacted much more than a mild cold - far less die  -    - -    the evidence is already out there -- double vaccinated = dont die       

the UK is averaging 40,000 cases a day and around 44 deaths - its now 0.1% of infected people dying -- and then of those taht are dying 0.5% are fully vaccinated --  so is that ).00005% of cases  will result in a fully vaccinated person dying --  and even then they will have had to have very significant health problems prior to infection - most likely preventing them from steroid and ventilation treatments

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Harvard University reached 96% vax rate. Just had to revert to online classes due to a significant outbreak. Duke University had the same experience. Do we still stay locked down if the virus circulates freely amongst the vaxxed. More evidence each day that is the case.

Will people line up willingly for their 4th or 5th booster shot next year if our experience mirrors Israels? The wheels on the Vaccine Will Save Us" bus are starting to wobble. 

On the bright side, think of all the millions of lab rats spared an awful death by doing the medium and long term testing on humans. The brilliance of this strategy by big pharma. Lab rats are expensive. Government supplied a couple of billion humans, paid full retail up front for the drug and handled the test. As well as offering indemnity to the suppliers.

Great business coup since the invention of the cigarette. 

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#misinformation galore.

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England are getting about 100 Covid deaths a day and are now fairly open.  At the peak they were getting over 1000 deaths a day even with lockdowns and restrictions. 

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Doing the math we are going to see several dozen deaths per week.

Maybe even more since England have already had several waves take out a good number of those most susceptible.

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Circa 90% of people in the UK have antibodies against Covid-19 [link].

Dead people are not a problem, you can send them off to the crematorium or dump them in a mass grave like New York did. It's the people who will die without medical treatment that present an issue because hospital space is very finite.

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NZ is having about 650 deaths a week, every week for many years

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Yes, you don't see them mentioned in the daily press conferences though. Tens of thousands each year, from all sorts of causes.

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The death rate for the unvaccinated in Israel is much higher than for the vaccinated.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/covid-in-israel-the-17-unvaccinated…

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And for the UK. Double jabbed are only 1.2% of covid deaths. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/13/full…

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I'm guessing vaccine passports next year globally. You will get you UBI paid through it also. When it comes time to get your booster your mobile gives you a warning that your passport expires unless you get a booster shot. 

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awesome

sounds like next year is 1984

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Sounds good to me.

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Then you have issues

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The whole thing is a disaster and reflects very badly on this country and how it has been managed and governed in the last 30 years, by BOTH parties.

Both parties have subscribed heavily to neoliberalism, 'just in time' delivery, and the politics of low taxation and debt, as well as mass immigration.

Both parties have failed to invest sufficiently in infrastructure, including healthcare infrastructure. Our infrastructure was overloaded in 'normal' times, let alone in a pandemic.

Every one knew that a pandemic was inevitable, just as everyone knows a major earthquake in Wellington is inevitable.

Successive governments have been fundamentally negligent.

A disgrace. They should both hang their heads in shame.

 

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Well, if the shaming doesn't work, we could always hang their heads. Just following the trend of leftover options. Pointing out the rational response doesn't seem to interest them.

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If the government were serious about getting the population vaccinated they would have an alternative to the mRNA vaccines that a large cohort are deeply skeptical of.

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Who is this large cohort? We have approx 80% of the eligible population vaxed at least with a single dose. 

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A good portion of that other 20%.

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I think you give them to much credit Brock. I think at least 4/5 of the remaining vaccine hesitant are so because of completely spurious reasons, and are just antivax generally. I know enough of them personally. The ones I know (who are part of a larger community) have never argued it's the mRNA part of it thats the issue and that they would get a different type of vaccine if it was available.

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The latest I've heard from the ones I know is that the mRNA vaccines cause protein mis-folding and mad cow disease in a few years.

 

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You must know slightly more intelligent dumb people than me

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Do you really think they wouldn't invent some other BS for a different vaccine platform?

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A good portion of the 20% unvaccinated just can't be bothered. Make it inconvenient to be unvaccinated they'll get done soon enough.

The hard-core idiots are only 5 to 6%.

 

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I hope you are right.

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Ministry of health data shows missing vaccinations are in the 12-30 age group. older groups (and most at risk) are already highly vaccinated. Check out the plot by age group:

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-no…

 

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Novavaxx, a traditional protein-based vaccine (no foreign components introduced into your cells as it is with MRNA), will probably not be available here until February. That's probably worth another couple of % to the vaccination rate at national level, but that date seems an age away.

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Agree 100%, offer alternative options and decrease vaccine hesitancy by at least 10%. With options, 90% might still happen.  

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Food trucks (with free food) at vaccination centres is probably worth 3%.

All Blacks at vaccination centres is probably worth another 5%.

We are a simple country.

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How about $100 per jab. 20 million dollars per 100,000 people fully vaccinated. Chicken Poo in the scheme of things.

The money will be spent any way. 2.6 Million straight back as GST. Some more via PAYE and company tax.

Might get us to 85% at least. 

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There should have been more than one vaccine option from day one.

Btw, it's looking like the Moderna vaccine has greater efficacy than Pfizer.

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Because it is not like they will proclaim other vaccines will make them sterile or magnetic, or claim their vaccinations must be organic from natural ingredients, not chemicals (literally so so many do believe that and they were all health workers!)

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The quality of our housing and the spread of disease, who would have thought that they were linked?

After all, it's just a coincidence that we have the 2nd highest asthma rate in the world.

 

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And increasing with the Greens finding it fashionable to go back to widespread woodburning and smoking.

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The number of cases is becoming irrelevant now that we have finally given up on elimination.  Let's start living again and enjoy life !

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I agree Yvil, we can perhaps procrastinate one more month and then its summertime and time to hit the beach. We need to start looking at the bigger picture and drop the police state mentality. Make up your mind to get vaccinated or not in the next 30 days and drop the lockdowns completely.

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That's how the clashes between people & police started in Oz I assume. Not disagreeing with your point tho.

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Hard deadline of Labour Weekend. Ample time for everyone to have had a shot. 

Quite frankly I DGAF what happens from there, I'm vaccinated (reluctantly), was never scared of the virus, everyone I know is vaccinated now too. You're telling me this bubble thing is indefinite and I'm stuck in this metropolis because there are some laggards in society? Good on them if they don't want to take it, let them take the risk.

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Has anyone seen the movie Equilibrium?

Dystopian thriller staring Christian Bale

It's actually not unthinkable that it could happen in the future. 

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How can we do gun kata if Jacinda took all our guns away?

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ask the Mob or Black power for one -   since the knee jerk, extremely poorly written  crappy legislation based on a populist not thinking one day response -   the only people without guns are the law abiding enthusiasts, amateur hunters and farmers and agencies that needed them for pest control --  meanwhile the amount of gun crime has tripled and our police are reporting massive gun caches far bigger than before every time they raid a chapter!    Shocking legislation -

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That's true! Jacinda will set up a tetragrammatron council with squads looking for contraband like books and paintings. I suspect most of us are sense offenders. 

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Commonsense offenders.

The contraband will be anything from our "colonial" past or in the English language.

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Brock 

100 percent!

Having an old NZ pound or anything from our pioneering past. You would be first too be sent to the chamber of judgement. 

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Not very reassuring this time from the MOH. They recommended dropping down to level 3. Are they going to drop down to level 2 next week. The rest of NZ has eliminated the virus,  and don't want to have restrictions increased. 

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get used to it bud --   delta 2 all the way to christmas --  even if vax rates do improve -   

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I think some people in the rest of the country feel let down. People are still wearing masks in the street in small South island towns where there is highly likely no covid. Yet some people in covid infected suburbs of Auckland are not following the rules and intermingling in households. Where is the enforcement of the rules? They have planned for higher fines for lockdown flouters,  but they haven't even brought those higher fines in yet. Vaccination is not a silver bullet, as in the UK they are still getting over 150 people dying a day despite relatively high vaccination levels and approx 50% of children having already had covid. NZ has almost no natural immunity in children so it could spread badly in schools

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Welcome to life. Other people won't always act how you want. In a city the size of Auckland, there will be plenty of people like that. Getting angry at South Aucklanders is pointless.

Anger should be directed at the people who are delivering the policy, as theirs is the behavior you can actually change.

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my selfish response is close the bridge, make North Shore level-2 and the south can be level-5.

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We couldn't take a level 5 lockdown. Basically it would be like an Ibola outbreak, you wouldn't be able to leave the house. I mean not leave. No exercising and wandering round the streets your locked in. Food would have to be delivered by non contact by people that are being tested to death. Duration of probably 2 months and the only visitor you would get is someone in full PPE to test you. It would make the current level 4 look like a free picnic in the park, thousands of people, a live band with all the alcohol you could drink.

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Carlos 

A worthy notion, level 5 it is to crush that curve.

Go hard

Go early 

Be kind

 

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Unfortunately Aucklanders can't pay their mortgages, commercial rents or wages with platitudes.

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Ah yes, there's that typical North Shore 'got mine' attitude, never mind that's where this outbreak started.

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Correction this outbreak of the virus started with the govt open border to NSW, lax quarantine and not checking most preboarding covid test results.

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Where do you think most North Shore health and hospitality staff live? Magical rent/price controlled housing land? The North Shore suburb just over the rainbow?

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They live in my North Shore suburb one of the cheap ones. 

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The plan is to drop the levels down so far we go into negative level territory,  Minus Level 4 coming soon.

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Yes, minus 10 would be perfect. I think vaccination levels are dropping as evidence of their dangers is becoming apparent. Research approved of by Robert Malone (the inventor of mRNA technogy), has shown that the mRNA vaccines kill five times as many over 65's as Covid would have. And the multiple is even higher for younger age groups:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221475002100161X.

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Sunchap

Bollocks yet again.

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You are confusing alert levels with interest rates. 

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Seems as though this is how we get back to normal: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3Iaw93XfOQ&t=54s

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We could get back to normal with Pfizer's "new" drug "Mectin" - which is basically just ivermectin!!!??

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/pfizer-launches-final-study-covid-dr…?

 

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Sunchap

Do you really believe the bollocks you put up.

Ivamectin was first suggested by a far right politician . . . no science background and absolutely no clinical trials.

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His Bollocks are two links, not that I'm suggesting your lack of links in refute means anything. 

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It appears you cannot read or spell. Pfizer is making a drug based on the Nobel prize winning drug ivermectin, to treat Covid. That is because multiple peer reviewed studies recommend it. An Indian WHO official is on trial for murder for FAILING to recommend it, as India reduced Covid fatalities by 90% by using ivermectin in every state except the state the WHO moron was in.

Keeping NZ shut does not reduce deaths, it results in more deaths eventually - from a massive drop in living standards. If we stay shut for two years, suicides and cancer rates from missed appointments will skyrocket.

 

 

 

 

 

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Come on, man...

the Pfizer drug under trial has some similar properties to ivermectin, but it's not the same thing. 

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It's Pfizermectin, get it right. 

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Head back to the asylum buddy

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Aucklanders were just not up to the challenge

People were gathering in groups outside of their bubble
Going to the supermarket almost every day and hanging about there
Going to the supermarket as couples and doubling the risk for no gain
Tearing around city streets in cars at night at high speed
Raping and murdering
Terrorism
Not wearing masks
Not telling the truth about who they had contact with
Breaking out of quarantine
Leaving Auckland
Dangerous outdoor activities
Visiting ER with flu symptoms

Conscientious adherence to the lockdown rules for four weeks would have knocked this thing on the head...but no. Just hopeless.

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How did the virus get back in?

Wasn't our fault. We have had enough of our rights and freedoms being trampled on. 

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I agree we have had enough. My point was that strict compliance for four weeks was probably enough to buy us a bit more time.

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You're an idiot. Most people followed the rules diligently, but the problem with the strategy is that there will always be a tiny sliver of the population that can't or won't.  That was the issue with delta. It took a few dozen gang members out of a city of 1.5 million to spread the thing, then game over.

The presence of the tiny sliver is no reflection on Auckland - the same thing would have happened in any city.

Which is why I keep saying that any strategy that requires absolute 100% compliance from the public, is doomed to failure. 

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Mongrel Mob is a club not a gang. 

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.

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You really need a dictionary. By their own definition they are gangs with gang warfare deaths and very real victims from assault, drug trade and organized crime. "But self-interested people don't join gangs!" "Hey, f..k society! Live for yourself!" "YEAH!" "Come join our society that opposes society!" "Yeah..." "Now put on this uniform and lay down your lives by the hundreds for extremely minor gains!" "Whaaat?" Yahtzee

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They are a club. If you could take the time to read next time you see a headhunter or hells angel's ride past you it says on their patch MC.. Which means motorcycle club. 

It's not a gang its a club. 

And yahtzee was my favourite game in the 80s.. 

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Wow you failed at googling yahtzee. Seems you cannot even be trusted to look up definitions and quotes. Perhaps next time you can learn the basics before trying to reinvent the gang to something it is not in an attempt to encourage more to join in the criminal behaviour.

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You're probably right Brutus. It's just a bit exasperating how level 3 seems to be interpreted as level 2 for most Aucklanders. I'm not that keen on lockdowns but if we are to do it we might as well do it properly for the shortest amount of time.

However you do actually agree with my statement that Aucklanders are not up to the challenge as you imply that all other cities are not up to the challenge either. Hell, even Reykjavík can't do it. I am an Aucklander as well.

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Well in that case, you get it, and you've had to live through it, so i accept your viewpoint.

What annoys me is people sniping from Wellington and the South Island. They simply don't get the impact of these prolonged Level 4's and 3's. All the MPs get to move freely outside Auckland, all the modellers calling for permanent Auckland lockdowns seem to live in Otago. The common factor is that their white collar jobs are insulated from day to day realities for most people.

It just so happens that Auckland is the main international travel gateway, we are densely populated, and take a hit whenever Covid comes in. This will always be the case.

But consider, if we were in a regular tourist season with people flying into ChCh etc, the South Island would be riddled with the virus. Yet they are keen to claim the moral high ground and bag Aucklanders in general.

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Yep, PM & MPs should be working in zoom so that they feel the same effects as everybody else. Living off the wage subsidy during the lockdowns would not be a bad idea either. Wishful thinking, I know :)

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Iceland has a homogeneous society though.

We have intergenerational households reliant on the state. 

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Yeah that's why I said "even". Iceland is interesting as it has a small population as well as being isolated. If they can't beat it nobody can. They are likely quite clustered together as a population and gather in smaller rooms in bars, supermarkets etc making transmission more likely.

My pet theory is transmission is more likely where people are talking, shouting and singing. Churches, parties and bars. If we all became silent it would help I think.

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Agree with you mostly but the setup the cities operate under affects the results. E.g I've been "fortunate" to stay in MIQ in a few places. In Auckland's MIQ one can: 

- go out of your room and have a coffee in the lobby downstairs;
- go out for an exercise walk with "almost" no people around you;
- exchange looks and potentially fluids with MIQ employees as you'd be using the same elevators. 

(it's not a full list of unsafe practices I noticed while I was there)

In Singapore, the moment you go out of your room - you can't re-enter as your key won't work. I also can't imagine gang members breaking lockdown rules without being arrested and prosecuted.

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Singapore puts a premium on personal responsibility, education and discipline.

NZ on the other hand....

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...on landlords? 🤔

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by Brutus Iscariot | 29th Sep 21, 7:29pm

"You're an idiot."

 

Com'on BI, is that really needed?

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Just get jabbed and get on with it, you will not eliminate Delta, so no point looking at charts and what ifs, get jabbed and we need learn to live with it, like thousands of other viruses and cancers and accidents, it's now part of life.

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